chris948 wrote:
What does this mean?
" I hope that, and maybe will have more commentary to this point, that the “Lance factor” as people are calling it doesn't negatively affect the race. By that, I simply mean that steps will need to be taken to ensure that external dynamics are kept to a minimum and everyone is able to race their race. At 70.3 TX, this was not quite the case, and the results were likely skewed a bit because of it."
As someone very much on the outside looking in, when it comes to big races and being fast, the dynamics are very interesting.
So, this one took some writing, re-writing, etc. I added this to my race report as a 'reason' for going to Kona this year, the fact that Lance is racing in all honesty. But that isn't my 'only' reason for wanting to qualify and go this or next year, I kind of would like to race it as a professional even if it is an expensive 'experience', but I am not 100% sold on it which is enough to say I should probably pick a different race. I am likely not going to receive any more attention in the race than I would have if Lance wasn't in the race, unless it is warranted by my finishing results. Kona is a different race simply because the 50 best are there and you might get 10 of 50 at most other races. Clearly with Lance in the race there will be a lot of media hype, etc. And, it's well deserved 'hype' if you ask me. He is as has been pointed out in other threads, a celebrity and is a celebrity right now who is doing well at triathlons. And look, I don't want this thread to spiral downwards like most threads when the name Lance is mentioned, so I'll ask you to keep those out of it. And, the exposure that he brings to triathlon, even if it is only for a couple of years, has the potential to at least catapult it a little bit more into the mainstream.
To the dynamics of the race, I briefly touched on them in my race report from 70.3 Texas. With more exposure comes more media. In the 'old' days people surmised that some of the reason Mark/Dave/etc. when so 'fast' on the bike was because then they had media VAN convoys driving around them. Now we have motos and photographers, which is worlds better than Vans and autos. At 70.3 Texas the roads were NOT closed for the first 20 miles of the bike course, and the course going out was the right hand lane of two lanes going the same direction. We had the right most lane, cars has the left lane in the same direction. So, when I say that I hope that race dynamics play out so that everyone in the race can race THEIR race I'm speaking in terms of the media not having an effect. At 70.3 Texas, a lot of people on the internet commented that Lance sat up for some reason during the bike leg. He sat up because the guys behind him were getting a massive draft, not from being legal distance behind, but from the dozen cars that were lined up behind a moto in the passenger lane causing a huge break in the quartering head wind that we fought for 20 miles. So, essentially while the front cyclist of the pack may have been riding his race, if you were 3rd wheel or further, you were getting an artificial advantage. After mile 20 as soon as the course was closed the pack essentially broke up.
I can't tell you how the results would have changed if things were different. I came off the bike far enough down to pass some of the guys ahead of me. Would Jordan Jones not have pipped Lance at the line...I don't know. Would Sebastian instead of Tim won...I don't know. But, I do think that the first 20 miles of the race did change the finishing in some manner.
That is what I mean by race dynamics being affected by external factors...not the wind or terrain or weather. I do not care what other athletes chose to do in Kona. If I'm racing, I'm going to be making my decisions based on what I think that I can do. Last year the top-10 was likely not picked in its entirety by anyone. And the reason is the same reason that I ended up passing 2 guys at the end of the ride at IMTX. Guys decided to ride harder than they knew they could for the first 1-2 hours of the race and blew up. The race just needs to be a fair race for the men....and women. If there is a media convoy of 5 motos surrounding Lance as soon as he gets on the road then 1 of a few things are going to happen...he's going to ride artificially fast, he and those in close proximity are going to ride artificially fast, and/or someone who might come out in the 2nd pack might not ride through the field and have the race that they are capable of having because of the first two scenarios above...someone like Sebastian Kienle at 70.3 TX. If 10 guys want to ride with Lance, then let them make that choice and do it. Don't let it happen because of the external factors. If Lance blows through the field by mile 10 and is on his own, then just keep things clean enough so that he's not 15 minutes ahead instead of 10 or 12. And for the women, it might mean either a pretty good head start or at least a separate male/female start so that the faster female swimmers do not end up riding with the slower male pros.
That is what I mean by the "Lance factor", external race dynamics, and possibility of the race outcome being changed.
Brandon Marsh - Website | @BrandonMarshTX | RokaSports | 1stEndurance | ATC Bikeshop |