I'm looking forward to it. I hope it proceeds without major interruptions. I agree it is wide open.

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David
* Ironman for Life! (Blog) * IM Everyday Hero Video * Daggett Shuler Law *
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I am hoping that we have a crazy wide open TdF this year without one team dominating and ruling the peloton.It "may" be one of the most entertaining tours in years. One of my bikes is already on the trainer in front of the TV in preparation for a lot of late night spinning down here in Oz..

Open? In what way? The winner or the podium?
Bernal wins hand Down, roglic peaked too early, may not even make the podium, Dumoulin isn’t quite there. Pinot could be a contender, But his performance at dauphine shows why he’ll never win (bad decisions).
Bernal 1st, uran on the podium again, because he hangs on. The last one on the podium (who might be second overall), anyone’s guess, But Bernal Will be so far in front that the race Will be for 2nd/3rd place.

Given that the hope of doing tris is widely evaporating, the hope of a Tour de France has brought normalcy in my life and the return to pro bike racing feels almost normal versus pro sports like NHL, MLB, Champion's league (anyone but Bayern.....dammit)

Having said that the Esprit Full IM and half IM in Montreal are going as planned on Sep 12th. They just ran a 500 person run race at the same venue this weekend, so it looks like "it is on"....so I need to get some bike fitness now....watching TdF should make it motivating to get my ass out to do some real rides vs transportation rides only.

If I were going to bet money, I'd put it on Bernal for the win. But it's less of a sure thing than what it's been in some past years.

The sprint stages and the Green Jersey are going to be interesting. There are still at least nine stages that will end in sprints (if the break doesn't get caught), and depending on who can get over all of the climbs (and not get eliminated for missing a time cut), it will be fun to see how many stages Ewan can win and if Sagan is still fast enough/motivated enough to win the Green Jersey again.

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"Human existence is based upon two pillars: Compassion and knowledge. Compassion without knowledge is ineffective; Knowledge without compassion is inhuman." Victor Weisskopf.

I Think the green Jersey is the least interesting. Sagan wins it again. He’s fast, But not the fastest, But still he’s a stronger rider than most in a breakaway. Wout Van aert could be a Challenger, But it’d be a bad decision to go for it if jumbo visma are serious about the Yellow Jersey. I doubt any “real” sprinter Will beat Sagan - the simply cant keep up with him in a break away

Bernal for the win and Sagan for the green jersey. Anything else is a toss up. However, the TdF is crazy, anything could happen, just ask Evanpoel. Ouch...

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http://dontletitdefeatyou.blogspot.com

The thing about the Green Jersey is that its not really targeted at pure sprinters. Its more targeted at the likes of Zabel and Sagan. I believe it was 2004 TdF where Zabel finished 30th or so overall in the GC. Telekom were burning matches for intermediate sprint points instead of saving their legs so that Jan could deal with Lance. Hopefully Jumbo don't do like Telekom with WvA!!! What about Matthews on the Green front. He hurt his hand in Milano San Remo, but anyone know if he is better?

Does Bernal win last year without the landslide and would Thomas have taken the win? It is too bad that Thomas gained his Covid15 (lbs)

I agree! Such a weird, interuppted season, loss of money, UCI points up in the air, lots of transfers to occur.
Who will be loyal, who will not? Collusion between DS's?

I do wish the best for Pinot, but keep an eye on my personal up-and-comer, Guillame Martin!

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Anne Barnes
ABBikefit, Ltd
FIST/SICI/FIST DOWN DEEP
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I thought the consensus was that the landslide that took a couple big climbs out of the race hurt Bernal, who was the best climber.

So many more variables this Tour! I think the dynamics will make for some really interesting tactics from day to day that will be unexpected.
My PVR is cleared...

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Member of the Litespeed Factory Team
www.litespeed.com

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Bernal was going to have to put in a chunk of solo Km from the top of the 2nd climb, across any approach to the last climb, and all way to the finish. No way Yates was going to help and risk missing out on the stage win. Any cooperation in the group behind could have really trimmed his lead. He did have the advantage of Thomas getting a free ride all the way to and up the final climb, which might have factored in the “coulda, woulda, shoulda”, but I don’t think it is safe to assume that Bernal could have put a ton of additional time into everyone after doing all the solo work.

I honestly don’t get the why so many people are picking Bernal over Roglic. I can’t think of any previous race where Bernal was even close to dominating Roglic. I may have missed it, but when I have seen them race Bernal has always been ineffective against Roglic on the climbs and TTs aren’t even close.

I have to pick Roglic assuming his injuries from the crash won’t be a factor. He just needs to stay upright and healthy. I would love to see something crazy happen and Pinot win. It fits well with “2020. The year of crazy sh-t.”, but I don’t even think that is enough for him to win. My dark horse though is Dumoulin. He should be the definition of “fresh as a daisy” and he could be really going well at the end of 3 weeks.

Matthews is not going to the Tour. Team didn't select him. Even if he had, unless Sagan is truly unmotivated, out of shape or somehow lost something like its been rumored every year for the past 3 or 4, Matthews has never put in a serious challenge for it. Sure, he won it once, but only after the guys ahead of him were either kicked out or crashed out.

Don't get me wrong, Matthews is strong and looked good as MSR, but when both are at their best and motivated, he is not on Sagan's level.

WVA on the other hand could challenge for it, but as others have said I think his focus is likely GC support this year at least. Don't think you'll see him trying to sneak into breaks early on in the race with Sagan, but who knows.

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"It's good enough for who it's for" - Grandpa Wayne

Halfway through the CdD, it looked like Roglic was going to be the favorite. Especially on the morning of Stage 4 when Bernal dropped out with his sore back. And then...........

I'm guessing Bernal's back is OK after a couple of weeks off, and he's now the outright leader for Ineos. Roglic's road dizziness and road rash after his crash sound like they could still be a problem. Losing Kruijswijk won't help Roglic's chances either. It will be interesting to see what role Dumoulin plays.

Cue the conspiracy theories if Pinot wins after Ineos and JV were kicked out for have two COVID positives.

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"Human existence is based upon two pillars: Compassion and knowledge. Compassion without knowledge is ineffective; Knowledge without compassion is inhuman." Victor Weisskopf.

Roglic's dizziness was troubling. It almost feels certain that he had a concussion but since cycling has no proper concussion protocol, they kept it quiet since recovery time can be uncertain:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/...ers-full-start-list/

At this link is a start list. When do teams have till to lock in their lineup these days?

wondering how the weather, the prevailing wind is in August for France?

100yrs of historical 'knowing' how the conditions will tend to be in a certain area for JULY.

This is an anti-clockwise year more difficult to defend

This will be the year of the Time Bonus as many stages end on a climb.

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Anne Barnes
ABBikefit, Ltd
FIST/SICI/FIST DOWN DEEP
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abbikefit@gmail.com

Wiggins seems to think g would have taken the tour last year.

Another key variable for Sagan is that he is also racing the Giro, which starts just 13 days after the Tour. Can he win green while holding something in reserve for the Giro? Seems doubtful. On the other hand, maybe he is all-in for the Tour and is just racing the Giro with far lesser ambitions. He says he wants both points jerseys, but that sounds like bluster.

Also Hugo Houle from team Astana confirms that he was never positive for Covid19, which is bringing into question the entire "throw the team out with 2 positives" if the tests themselves are not really that accurate:

https://www.velonews.com/...-covid-19-protocols/

This race won't reach Paris. Infections growing quickly in France again. It will be stopped at some stage due to Covid. Best tactic for the contenders is to be strong early in the race (not the standard Ineos approach) and take yellow early and hold it till the race is stopped.

Looking forward to it! Still working from home, so I can just put the tele on and watch. I really hope it finishes and no teams will be dropped because of Covid. But seeing infections in some football teams I think it's realisitic that a few times might get dropped. And with rising cases and difficulties to control crowds I think it's also realistic it won't finish. It's a shame, I really think Dumoulin has a chance this year (I'm Dutch). From next year onwards it will be the era of Evenepoel for about a decade.

I am wondering the same thing. UAE tour and Paris Nice got cut off on the win went to the race leader when it was cut off.

France is logging 2K to 5K new cases per day, but thankfully single digit deaths. I think as long as the latter stays low and hospital capacity is good, Macron (at least this is what he said a while ago) wants to avoid lockdowns and keep the economy open. For France, having the Tour de France is the ultimate symbol that the nation is in business.

Really the question is how this infiltrates into the rider+caravan bubble, and if first tests count (note Hugo Houle's false positive that kept him out of Tour of Lombardy).

I wonder how many stages they need to call an overall yellow jersey winner, or if they cancel at stage 5 or stage 9, they just leave it as individual stage winners but no yellow, green and polka dot awards. I can see stage 15 onwards, they call the race and award overall prizes. Both UAE tour and Paris Nice we called near end.

Since the Giro starts before the tour ends, there’s no way he’ll win the green Jersey and compete in the Giro as Well.
As for the virus, make them race with face masks
- no eating no drinking during stages😅
I’m a little unsure if the tour Will finish, even more so with the Giro, But pretty certain that there Will be no Vuelta this year. And I seriously doubt that World Championships is a good idea with the normal setup - maybe if only World tour riders are allowed to enter

another wild card that the CdD and other races have shown is the nerves/ crashes in the bunch and if for any reason they think it might get shortened due to COVID then things get worse. Usually the first week of the Tour is full of nerves and crashes so this year could be more about taking care of the contenders for the first weeks or so to allow a chance to go for the win... what if even the sprinters get the idea they need to get the points early in case it doesn't reach Paris???? I hope I am wrong, I really hate to see crashes and GC contenders knocked out due to crashed or held up because of crashes to become out of contention. So yeah there are so many wild cards this year beyond just the riders on form.

Tour ends Sept 20 (at the latest if it's totally completed) and the Giro doesn't start till Oct 3. Feel free to discuss the 'compete' part though!

Obviously confused about the dates this season. Maybe I was Thinking ITT worlds? - don’t know...

Yes world's ITT was supposed to be same weekend as end of TdF....not sure what will happen now with World's

I hope that doesn't happen, but ya, that's quite reasonable speculation.

It doesn't sound like Roglic's feeling all that perky. Let's hope he shows up feeling close to 100%, but his final prep for the TdF hasn't been ideal.

"I honestly thought that I would feel better by now after the crash on Saturday at the Critérium du Dauphiné. Let's see what the upcoming days bring. I'm staying optimistic."

https://www.cyclingnews.com/news/primoz-roglics-tour-de-france-remains-in-doubt-despite-return-to-training/

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"Human existence is based upon two pillars: Compassion and knowledge. Compassion without knowledge is ineffective; Knowledge without compassion is inhuman." Victor Weisskopf.

If he was confused and delirious getting into the Team car, I don't think that bodes well.

In NHL, NBA, NFL, the player can be pulled off to the sidelines to properly assess while the game goes on. In cycling, there is no time. Either you put the "player" back on the field pretty well instantly or the game is over. They put him back on the tarmac but doubtful there was any concussion protocol vetted for.

Having said that, maybe I am reading too much into this. If he had a real concussion, it is doubtful he would be back to training a few days later. It sounds to me like he will have a chance to try again for the Giro win and Dumoulin starts as team leader...let's see

I think Roglic is by far the favorite.
He easily handled Bernal in recent races and we know he can ride a good time trial.
He has a strong team except Kruijswijk is out which is a big blow.
The only question about Roglic is if has recovered from the crash.
I never cared for Froome and Team Sky, so looking forward to something different this year.
Would love to see Quintana be a contender, he has worked so hard over the years, but his time trial is severely lacking.
He would have to gain a lot of time in mountains and so far he just only just keeping up with the others.
You can't count out Pinot, he almost won it last year, would be the first Frenchman since Hinault.

I must say when I was watching the Italian classics then the Dauphine the stark difference in the spectators. Almost every roadside spectator in Italy was wearing a mask and keeping to the side of the road. I barely saw any masks in the Dauphine and worse, spectators doing their usual running along and yelling at the riders right in their faces. I fear for the riders in the tour.

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808 > NYC > PDX > YVR
2024 Races: Taupo

"I must say when I was watching the Italian classics then the Dauphine the stark difference in the spectators." that is an interesting point as well. I have no idea about travel restriction in France? are they permitting people into the country and if so from which countries? Just one more thing that is a wild card: spread of COVID.

I was watching a track meet in Monaco. There were thousands in the stadium and every single person without exception is wearing a mask.
I stark contrast to here in SoCal, I am seeing almost no runners or cyclists wearing or carrying a mask.

Pulling for Pinot big time this year. He has a real chance, but I fear the big mistakes he always seems to make during a 3 week race. If I have to predict winner, gotta go with Bernal.

I feel the same way about about Pinot. If there is a rider with Panache, it is him.

All of the predictions seem so dependent on non-racing, non-fitness factors. Bernal the favorite? Sure, until Ineos spins out two CV-19 positives. Such a wild card! I agree with other posters - if I'm running a team without a solid shot at the jersey under 'normal' conditions, I'd push it early, and try to hold the jersey when (if) the race shuts down. But think of the dynamic if Ineos and Jumbo are thinking the same thing. The first few stages could be insane. I'm just hoping for excitement and uncertainty and fun. We can go back to logical predictions in 2021 (or 2022). But this year? I'm hoping for bizarre approaches layered onto weird leaders on top of different teams. Bring on the 'wow, that wasn't what I expected'...

I bet Alaphillippe is thinking that if he can grab the yellow early and hang on, then he needs to puta call to Macron to shut down France....that should cover it. Or Pinot is leading and Macron shuts down France. Or Bardet. Marcron's probably got a deal going with all these guys..."Boys, just get in the lead enough stages into this thing and I'll make sure the entire country gets shut down quickly"

Why is this pink? Given the Thibault Pinot fan club TTT at the Dauphiné, this is practically a given.

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I supposed that given the intra squad Team France TTT squad could not take back the Dauphine on that final uphill TTT, they may need to recruit help from Macron :-). But it would be cool if any of those three French riders could take it on the tarmac with the full line up of 21 stages with no Covid related shortenings or rivals getting booted or landslides cutting off key mountain stages!!!

I might be proven to be a clown, but I reckon Tom Dumoulin is a big chance.

It's the only way a French guy is going to win 🤣

I think Roglic shows up for Dumoulin domestique duty. Remember in 2018, Roglic attacked on Aubisque (up and down), burnt his legs for a 19 second gain (really fun stage to watch) but the next day he had nothing left for the ITT. Dumoulin won that TT, Froome was just one second behind to take back third on the podium. Thomas took no risks and sealed his yellow.

If Roglic is good to go, does he know when and how many matches to burn. Will be interesting to see what happens on the Planche de Belle Filles Time Trial (this sounds like it should be like Welsley College during the Boston marathon, but I have only seen fat drunken fans on this climb, not beautiful women haha). 500m climb in 6 km, so if there was a TT to hhelp Pinot and Bardet limit losses this is a good one aside from a Ventoux or Alpe d'Huez TT. I think last time the TdF used this route in a road stage it was won by Fabio Aru who weighs nothing.

Dumoulin is saying his team is there to win a Grande Tour, not a shortened 10 day race:

https://www.cyclingnews.com/...d-if-race-is-halted/

He does not view the winner of a shortened race a Tour De France winner.

We don't now how Roglic has healed from his crash and we don't know how Bernal's back is doing.
But assuming they both are doing ok I am going to put my money on either Roglic or Dumalin.
I have no idea why so many are considering Bernal a shoe in, in all of the races leading up to the tour Bernal was sucking of Roglic's fumes.
And it isn't like last years Giro where Roglic ran out of steam, last year he was hot from February all the way through the first week of the Giro s we are talking about 3 months, now he has only been on top form for a month so he absolutely can hold that form for another 3 weeks.
And at the end of the Dauphane you could see TD's form coming along, on that last stage that Kuss won, TD put in a huge acceleration in the final 2k where he proceeded to drop Pinot and a number of other top climbers.
Even with the absence of Kruijswijk that team is insanely strong.

I want anyone but an Ineos rider to win the tour. I do think Bernal should be the favorite as last year's champ until proven otherwise. I think either Roglic or Tom D will have a great tour (but not both). As for Pinot, he doesn't have the killer instinct needed to win the TDF. He'll end up pouting about some misfortune and abandon the race at some point.

I would have gone with anyone but Ineos "other than Froome"....would have loved if he was on form after is accident. Will need to wait till Vuelta or if he's just gonna be a super domestique at Israel Startup Nation for Michael Woods next year.

For me it is the contrary, after Froome got caught with salbutamol blood levels through the roof in addition to Wiggins and triacinolome, jiffy bags, etc. makes them a bit suspect. So not a big fan of Ineos.

I like Bernal, but I wish we would race and hopefully win with another team. So would like anyone but Ineos to win, although, Jumbo's ketone affair is a bit controversial too. Really hope Ineos doesn't dominate again, it just makes for some really boring racing.

Bernal? I'm sorry, there's only one Egon*




*Yes, I know they're spelled differently

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"What's your claim?" - Ben Gravy
"Your best work is the work you're excited about" - Rick Rubin

Setting aside the Covid-19 concerns (which are legit and serious), I agree that this may be the most wide open, entertaining and interesting Tour's in years. Maain reasons:

- Check out the parcours - it's crazy! The climbing starts RIGHT away with two very tough days right from Nice in the Maritimes Alps! There are only 2 - 3 stages that are classic Sprinters stages. It's why some teams have passed on even bringing a prized Sprinter on their team and other top Sprinters have given it a complete pass. There is terrain of significance on almost EVERY stage - even outside the classic "Mountain Stages" in the Alpes and Pyrenees.

- With the lay-off and a lack of racing miles in riders legs - who knows how this will go? Throw out the past form charts and how riders, and whole teams performed.

- There is a changing of the guard under way in the sport Froome replaced by Bernal. Sagan will get a sure run for his money in the Green Jersey by Van Aert etc . . .

- Speaking of the Green Jersey, with so few true Sprinters Stages, to do well in that competition you will have to be a TRUE All-Rounder. I'm picking Van Aert.

- As for the GC - this Tour is a climbers delight, and, with only one TT, and it will be a TT that FAVORS the climbers (it's all uphill for the final 5K+ with ramps at close to 20%!!)

My picks - It will be a surprise overall winner in the GC, with a composition of the top-10 there, the likes of which we have never seen! How about that!!

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Steve Fleck @stevefleck | Blog

I think the course was designed for Alaphillipe.

I'm picking Giacomo Nizzolo as a possible contender for the green. He's coming into form and he's decent going uphill.

Someone should buy Pinot a Sufferfest subscription for the 'Mental Toughness' component.

Wout's not going for green, he's already said he's on pure domestique duty. Ewan, Colbrelli, Trentin, Bennett, all fastmen who can get over hills, so could feasibly try to give Sagan a run for his money, but realistically it's Peto's to lose (as usual).

I will continue with my new TdF tradition of waiting patiently for the "great climber" Quintana to make an solo attack on a mountain stage only to have to stop myself from throwing something at the TV when he just sits in looking bored and watches everyone else do their thing..It seems like the TdF just isn't his thing but stick him in the other two grand tours and he goes off..

Quintana is my "Should have seen that coming" pick. He was just killing people this spring. If he can replicate that form.... That being said I am still on the Roglic bandwagon.

Speaking of picks, Cyclingnew has Andy Schleck's choices. Some interesting insights but I think he will be wrong about everyone but Roglic.

Hey this parcours is like the Vuelta showed up to make a celebrity appearance in France...after all the TdF is basically running in the traditional Vuelta slot haha!!! So Nairo often does good in September, and this course is built to his liking. His big problem is his accident in training in Colombia and knee bothering him at Dauphine from that crash. Let's how he recovered from that!

Another Dutchman here! Live in Germany half of my life, but still a fan of Dutch riders of course.
And when I visit my mother I see the Jumbo supermarket in front of her house.

So I'm hoping for TDM, to be the first one since Joop Zoetemelk.

agreed. with the Green Jersey as it is, only Wout could challenge Peto as an all arounder.

for Peto, even if he doesn't win a stage, he gets every point. its awesome. I loved it when Hushov did it in 2009 (1 stage versus Cav's 6). I love it now.

My understanding is the green jersey was never intended for sprinters. Rather it was a reward for the person who placed highly in many stages and many intermediate parts of the course. It was weighted for stage finishes and with many stage finishes being flat over time it became a bit of an award for sprint focused athletes who really could not get over mountains. There may have been a year when Hinault was technically wearing yellow and green at one point inside the Tour de France.

I am personally far more interested in athletes like Sagan and Zabel who are fairly multifacted winning the green jersey compared to a pure sprinter who is kind of dogging every mountain stage trying to avoid the time cut to save the legs for the sprints only.

Some stats from a post discussing last year's green jersey competition.

The polka dot jersey is for the "Mountains Classification". The green jersey is for the "Points Competition". While they don't necessarily recognize the "best climber" or "best sprinter", everyone knows the rules and what you need to do to win these jerseys.

The 2019 green jersey competition between 1st and 2nd (Sagan and Ewan) is a good example. Ewan would probably be the "best sprinter", but he didn't put in the effort required to win the "Points Competition". On stage 3, Sagan finished 5th while Ewan finished 145th, 13:58 behind. On stage 5, Sagan finished 1st while Ewan finished 155th, 16:58 behind. On stage 8, Sagan finished 5th while Ewan finished 129th, 23:47 behind.

On the stages where Ewan finished ahead of Sagan (stages 4, 7, 10, 11, 16, and 21), Sagan was less than 3 places behind Ewan (except for stage 21), and he always finished on the same time as Ewan.

Ewan is probably the better sprinter, but you can't take "days off" and expect to beat the riders who are fighting for "green jersey points" on every stage.

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"Human existence is based upon two pillars: Compassion and knowledge. Compassion without knowledge is ineffective; Knowledge without compassion is inhuman." Victor Weisskopf.

Merckx won yellow, green, and polka dot in 1969.

[mic drop]

Yeah I think that is the main point. This is a Grand Tour not a 1 day race, so the Grande Tour rewards people who are in contention every day

Yellow = in contention every day and finish with "same time
Green = in contention almost every day minus the most massive mountain stages
Polka Dot = in the mix in some capacity on every climb, or at least every climb that is not a stage finish

Both Green and Polka dot ensure the race stays animate through the course....if not less breakaways would happen.

The cool thing is Jalabert winning Green and Polka dot on different years (yes, we can also say some pharma assist was there, but whatever, it was part of those times).

Velogames Slowtwitch League is open

League ID: 652293710

Back after a 2 year hiatus!

Thanks for setting this up. I like how it's the 'Great Big Bike Game' competition with no connection whatsoever with any race organization.

same, only way to get it going again after not being able to the past 2 years.

Thanks for this!

By the way Bernal is saying that his back is not 100% but hopes it will get better through the Tour de France. I guess if I am on the rival teams, its time to put the hammer down immediately in the first few stages in the Alpes Maritimes and try to break his back before it has a chance to get better, or ensure he has to deal with a painful back through the entire thing:

https://www.cyclingnews.com/...rom-his-back-injury/

Does anyone know if his back injury is just pain or if he is getting leg weakness because of it affecting his potential performance?

Yellow and polka dot are consistent from year to year, but the allocation of points can vary through time. You could argue whether or not time bonuses included in a given year has an impact on yellow, but it usually doesn't change race dynamics by a lot.

I recall when intermediate sprints were something like 3-2-1, so they were rarely contested and had basically no impact on the jersey classification. With heavier finish line points allocations in flat stages, that made the green jersey a de facto sprinters jersey.

By making more points available at intermediate sprints, the race is more likely to have an exciting contested sprint in the middle of the stage, but it also means someone like Sagan can mop up points on breakaways and still be close enough all the other days to run away with it. This makes it more in line with Dev's quote above (except Sagan ALSO tends to run away on big mountain stages to get the points and take some time pressure off the climbs).

Team Chamois Whammy is in!

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Anne Barnes
ABBikefit, Ltd
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I saw that. Has anyone had a sore back that has gotten better with more cycling? It's a bit of a concern, I'd have thought.

I suppose it helps to be in your early 20's so it could get better but never heard of a back injury that does not get better moving your core in all four directions (bedding both ways twisting both ways). Cycling you are locked in bent forward with your glutes getting tenser and tenser and hip flexors shorter and shorter. So not sure how he gets better sitting on a bike for 100 hrs over 23 days.

My prediction. Bernal in yellow and Carapaz 2nd in white.
If Bernal still has his back injured, Carapaz will take over for yellow.

I remember a similar thread last year about Giro when nobody even knew or underestimated Carapaz when I did my prediction. You’ll see ;)

My wife and I are in. You'd never know by our team names...

Looking forward to the Vuelta in France!

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He would have won the white jersey too, if it had been introduced. That's why they called him the cannibal or the baby eater.

Sivakov crashed already and 3 min back from the front. Alaphillippe crashed but is OK, but his team mechanic could not remove the front disc wheel so he got a bike change. There are rivers of water flowing down the roads.

I put Sivakov on my Velogames team so he's obviously cursed.

Alaphillippe looks like he's in eye view of the peloton now and does not look banged up. I heard Pierre Latour crashed too, but not sure where he is.

Can Sagan take a yellow today?

Edit: Julian attached to the back of the stragglers, but now he can't use the cars to reattach to the main peloton that is 40 seconds up the road....and WTF....Sivakov chases down the peloton and catches up on the flats on the Promenade des Anglais and has ANOTHER crash

Zakarin, Nieve and Richie Porte go down right near the Ironman France finish line on the Promenade just prior to the lead up to the first sprint. Sagan took 4th after the breakaway took the top 3.

well that was a crash fest... pretty bad when the riders neutralize racing because of the danger. Hope everyone is Ok and no ill effects of the crashes. This first week is going to be treacherous. The GC guys just need to get through without loosing time.

The slow down reminded me of 2010 and the Fabian Cancellara-lead peloton slow down after all the crashes on the oily roads.

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clm
Nashville, TN
https://twitter.com/ironclm | http://ironclm.typepad.com

Yeah, Fabian then Tony martin now... the Patron takes control, glad that cooler heads prevailed.

It was interesting seeing Roglic come up to one of the Astana riders (who were breaking the truce) saying to cool it. Tibault Pinot looked pretty banged up too.

Cyclingnews.com has this article in which they interviewd Luke Rowe: https://www.cyclingnews.com/...-look-pretty-stupid/

So much for disc brakes and their superior braking in wet conditions.

I did, however, see a super slow rear wheel change and Alaphilippe's front disc fully locked up requiring a full bike change rather than the 3 second front wheel change in the old days.

That wheel change took forever. I am surprised he did not just jump on the spare bike immediately. In any case, the mechanic fumbling around with the drill to unspin the bolt on the through axle kind of looked comical. Do you remember Denis Mechov's crash at the final Giro ITT in Rome on the cobbles, and his mechanic following in the team car was as fast as a cat, jumped out of the car, and had the spare bike off the roof rack and Menchov back on the road in sub 10 seconds to save the Maglia Rosa?

I was watching the entire debacle with Alaphillipple standing helplessly while the mechanic kind of fumbled. In any case, I was riding a downhill 3 days ago with a friend who joined for part of the ride. He was 30 lbs heavier than me and we were descending a 75kph steep hill (its 15% in places coming up) and it ends in a roundabout. In any case, he was on his Felt IA disc and just slammed the brakes and literally stopped on a dime. Even with my lighter weight on rim brakes it was pretty hairy for me to stop in time. But if we were on slick wet stuff, he would have locked his rear wheel (he actually said that right afterwards...."lucky there was no rain, I slammed too hard and would have locked up"). In any case a mixed peloton in terms of brake technology and variations in stoppping power and you can see how this can be problematic especially when its the first rainfall in 6-8 weeks in Nice....those roads must have been grease laden from the entire summer!!!!

The disc brake riders only went down because they had rim brakers running into their backsides uncontrolled.

I think that's essentially the problem. Its almost like you want all or none.

I was just kidding, just not worth taking rim-disc wars seriously anymore. No idea how most of the crashes happened, except it looked so slippery that I doubt magic brakes could have been much help.

It was an ice rink (see: https://www.youtube.com/...e=youtu.be&t=142). Riders didn't even need to touch their brakes to crash; lots of hydroplaning and road paint issues.

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Bicycle tyres Can’t hydroplane because of their shape and the shape of the contact patch. Paint, Oil and gasoline has an effect in the cities, But it’s mainly because of a layer of dust that make the roads so slippery and it’s usually like that places where it doesn’t rain a lot. Otherwise they’d be using threaded tyres in the rain, But it doesn’t make a difference on a bicycle.
Lopez’ speedway style crash comes in first place from a visual artistic point

I am not sure I follow your statement. I would tend to agree that the narrower the surface the less susceptible it is to hydrodynamic planing, but viscous hydroplaning seems probable, the tire width vs fluid film layer is orders of magnitude higher, wouldn't it? Not trying to be a smarta$$, but if you have any math/physics reference to prove the contrary, I would be interested in reading.

https://www.sheldonbrown.com/tires.html#hydroplaning

The main thing is a fantastic sunny day in Nice today. No worry about what types of brakes and Sagan is over some of the major climbs with the main group. Not sure if any of you guys watched Lance and George on WeDu last night....Lance had a great immitation of Peter Sagan....."I am here to win!"

Just to add to this discussion:

https://www.cyclingnews.com/...-the-tour-de-france/

One key point in this article is that Mavic neutral support only carries rim brake wheels, so if your team car is not in sight and you need a wheel change, then you give the advantage to Jumbo and Ineos who are on rim brakes and can use Mavic, but you cannnot if you need a quick wheel change and are disc set up.

Great stage today. Gotta hand it to Alaphilippe. Everyone knew 10 months ago when they announced the route pretty well exactly where he would attack to try to get enough for a gap over the top of that final climb to hold off the peloton for the stage win and yellow. His advantage is that Jumbo and Ineos really are not worried about him on GC so it was up to others really to shut him down if they wanted the stage and yellow.

https://imgresizer.eurosport.com/...197288-2560-1440.jpg

Is JA winning the stage wearing a $170,000 Richard Mille watch the ultimate flex?

Maybe he wore it because he knew the Garmin servers were all broken again today and wouldn't be able to upload data to Connect from a Fenix ?

I am not sure if this is the official TdF race thread ...

Curious why did Sagan push solo for so long up that climb? Why not immediately rest and fall back to peloton?

Curious why did Sagan push solo for so long up that climb? Why not immediately rest and fall back to peloton?


Good questions. It did seem a bit odd. Given how Stage 3 played out in the end, with it's Milan-San-Remo - like finale over the final 20km, he may have been a factor there. But that's all second guessing and the way Bike Racing goes.

Perhaps it could have been as simple as him wanting to test the legs a bit and get in a harder day on purpose for fitness purposes.

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Steve Fleck @stevefleck | Blog

Probably hoping to re-connect on the descent and make it to the 2nd sprint ahead of the peloton (as unlikely as that seems in retrospect).

Thanks - glad I am not the only one to find it odd. Crazy to think how in a long race like this riders play the fitness gain angle.

I noticed the watch after he crossed the line too and wondered what that was about...lol.

According to velonews he was on clinchers today.

I think that's a myth. No one gets more fit during the Tour de France. You just manage to lose fitness more gracefully. Everyone is worthless for weeks afterward.

2nd sprint was the finish line, no? That seems awfully optimistic thinking even for Sagan?

Yeah. Unlikely. But he nearly made it over the two huge climbs with the break. Roll of the dice. Shrug. Or maybe set something up for Kamna?

Or maybe it really was a training ride - that just seems unlikely to me.

Cavendish used to race wearing a Richard Mille, too (several, actually).



Richard Mille is apparently a big cycling fan, and the brand is a sponsor of the Bahrain McLaren team.

I was thinking that if the pace over the major climbs was low enough early than the last two times up Col d'Eze may been possible for him to hang in and have a chance at the stage win and yellow, but he'd have to have hung in (which he did not). And I don't think he could have gone with Alaphilippe. From what I know the stats on the 1.5x Eze are tougher than Cipressa and Poggio.

OK I just checked, and the full Eze climb is 490m. Cipressa is only around 200m and Poggio only around 140m. So not sure Sagan had any hope anyway.

But main this is Julian Alaphilippe took the stage and yellow. That was a real awesome day for France! Let's see how the stage to Sisteron goes tomorrow. its not too bad for him to defend:



Everything is Cat 3 or 4 with ~5% average grades. Julian should easily be able to defend.

Do any of you guys have news on Tom Dumoulin after his crash on the the climb today (second round up Eze)?

Dumoulin seems fine. https://www.cyclingweekly.com/...our-de-france-465400

Who knows, maybe he thought the break would go

I will never understand why riders sign contracts for new teams before the tour. It just seems like a bad idea

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"The person on top of the mountain didn't fall there." - unkown

also rule 5

Adding a little soap always helps, too

https://twitter.com/.../1299775147340165124

I wondered, when a bunch of riders 'felt the ground' [my new favorite phrase for crashing] on that little dogleg left, why there were white streaks on the road? I couldn't have been from their kits being scuffed up, nor from the pavement drying out suddenly, it was actually foam being kicked up from the detergent & rainwater as they slid around



Ever have one of those moments where you need to decide 'Which should I run into? The sign, the tree, or the car?'

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"What's your claim?" - Ben Gravy
"Your best work is the work you're excited about" - Rick Rubin

Getting in shape for the Giro and needed to do his sweetspot intervals? Or maybe sunday is just the day for a long endurance ride

You left out the rock barrier. Man, that was a Wiley Coyote moment!!!

"Make party"

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"What's your claim?" - Ben Gravy
"Your best work is the work you're excited about" - Rick Rubin

Hey so for tomorrow's stage Alaphilippe has to hang on to 17 seconds behind the GC studs on this:


If he is to keep yellow. It seems like it could be in the realm of possiblity. First stage where the gridlock of those at 17 seconds back should shake out a bit in the GC.

Most likely he needs to loose at most 7 seconds, as there is a time bonus of 10 seconds to the winner at the finish. Also depending on if that winner is one of the "17 seconds"-guys, and who gets second (6 seconds bonus) and third (4 second bonus) of course.

Depends How fast the they ride uphill, if they’re not pushing it, alaphilippe May take the stage win (if he Can keep up with roglic on the last 1k)

Yeah, the climb is not outside the range of Alaphillippe. 7 km at 7% although it maxes out at 1800m altitude, so its almost like an 8.% climb at sea level.

Also depends on the Wind, if there’s a strong tailwind drafting Will be harder

I think Jumbo is happy at the moment to not have to work on the flats: today all day Alaphilippes team have to work against the wind. That said, i guess everyone is happy today when Alaphilippe keeps yellow.

No big shakeout yet with 16 in lead group on same time. Also often some who lose time on first mountain stages will do better later.

Ineos looked a bit weak. When Wout pulled off, Kwaitkowski had nothing and pulled off too. LOL. Carapaz finished 28 seconds back.
EF's Higuita and Martinez also 28s back, but Uran in main group and Carthy only 15 seconds back.

Wout was awesome. Nice to see Quintana (Nairo) with good legs.

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It doesn't really matter what Phil is saying, the music of his voice is the appropriate soundtrack for a bicycle race. HTupolev

Great stage. Absolutely amazing the rider that hit the guard rail and snapped that Cervelo like a toothpick was not injured. Sep Kuss is an animal. Roglic looking strong. A but surprised Bernal did not stay with Roglic and gave up time to him.

I find it interesting how big a gap Roglic is opening up in the finish. He isn’t a bean pole yet he is quickly opening up significant gaps. It makes me think that he isn’t really being put under any type of pressure on these climbs because at the end he is capable of maybe an extra 200 watts over everyone else. I figure anyone who has been at or above FTP for 30+ minutes will be peddling squares in the final sprint.

I believe Roglic's physiology is like Mo Farah in the 5000m and 10000m running....he has 48 second 400m speed while having 59:50 half marathon endurance. Infinite slow twitch fiber, but he also has insane fast twitch. You can't be a good ski jumper without serious explosive power (there is nothing aerobic about that sport).

Well you called it almost perfectly. Alaphilippe almost kept up! Just not the same explosive power as Roglic.

https://www.cyclingnews.com/...ippes-gc-weaknesses/

...says the guy who’s obviously never lugged his skis up the hill - over and over and over again.

Yeah, for sure, it was nice to see Nairo right in the action. I hope his knee that he hurt in the car accident while training in Colombia is feeling good after his Dauphine pull out. We'll know when we get to some steeper mountains. Other than Roglic's final surge today he seemed to be able to react to everything, and with the ITT having the 7km of Planche de Belle Filles in 2.5 weeks, his ITT time lossed will only be the first 20km but for the rest he should be able to not lose any time and gain time back on some rivals.

On the lighter front, my son ran rec track with Neilson Powless many years ago.

Great family and he seems to have turned out ok.

Well physiologically Alaphillipe probably has more explosive power in most situations. It's just that he'd been above FTP just getting to the point where the sprint started so his maximal available power at that point was lower than Roglic's.

And Jumbo-Visma at the Dauphine and now at the TdF seem to know this. When there's a mountain-top time bonus on the line they burn everyone's reserve down and let Roglic put in a little 10-second effort to sweep up the bonus. Quite a luxury.

I mentioned this previously, but Roglic has the fast twitch of a ski jumper. This is ultimate fast twitch. His 10second power anaerobic (no oxygen fuelled) is probably pretty high as long as he can access it and he probably has a higher watts per kilo FTP than Alaphilippe. So yes, he rides a lower percent of his watts per kilo and can then access his fast twitch at the end of the day. By the way, in the final km when almost everyone was standing, Bernal was sitting down....I don't recall that being his climbing style from previous races....is that the back issue and sitting being easier? Tom Doumoulin also looked like he was hanging on for dear life in the main group. Not as good as end of Dauphine!

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I am bummed because I am (unrealistically no doubt) hoping for a crazy tour where the climbers are going to hammer each other at every mountain stage leaving the peloton in their dust while the last man standing wins the race. Instead it seems we have sprint finishes on flat stages for the sprinters and sprint finishes on mountain stages for the climbers. I really hope what happened on this first mountain finish isn't what we are going to see for the rest of the TdF.

To my eyes, Alaphilippe is excellent at recovery. Can punch several times if you give him the chance to get below threshold for a short while. Primoz is excellent at punching while in the red, also very good at not going deep into the red.

....and then does the TdF get won on the Planche des Belles Filles by the climber who can TT the best who then does the "climber sprint" at the top of that climb, of the TTer who can TT like a maniac and virtually climb drafting the best climbers (ex Tom Doumoulin today). Remember in 2018 Tom D out TT'd Roglic who dropped to 4th place (and lost his podium) to Froome in the final TT. Planche de Belles Filles is still 2.5 weeks away.

With less training in the legs due to Covid19, either some riders will come into good form on week 3 and be less burnt out, or because they had so little racing in the legs before, they are not used to it and will be shredded....its probably like your ultraman buddies who have a great second training block after a disasterous first one. I personally think the best racing this year will be at the Giro....enough riding and racing before hand to then back off a bit and do a final build before Giro. Guys like Nibali and Thomas will be on fire...and by the Vuelta everyone but Froome will be burnt out LOL

..
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Yep,I would love the ITT at the end of the three weeks to be the epic ending to a crazy tour with guys making up or losing huge margins as the GC contenders throw it all at a last ditch effort for the podium..
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I will be on the first part of my month long ride during the last week of the TdF and have picked out specific towns and booked motels so I can watch the key stages near the end.Ride all day and watch the TdF at night sounds like fun to me.
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Lord knows how I am going to be able to follow the Giro in the Queensland outback in October.

Well it was the JV dauphine tactics, so pretty easy to see that one coming. It Will take longer Climbs to Shake off Alaphilippe (and maybe Roglic for that matter). Dumoulin did look suprisingly weak though

I wonder if Dumoulin's "other" knee (the one he crashed on a few days ago) was bothering him more than he is willing to let on. And for that matter Bernal's back. He did not stand up at all when everyone else was and was riding the steepest part where there were surges with a closed up hip angle, when others were standing and opening up hip angle to generate a bit more power.

Can someone explain the team classification standings? I see EF are the leaders, but I can't figure out the math that puts them ahead of Jumbo Visma.

Damn GCN... In my pre-coffee IG scroll I saw they said Andre Greipel won stage 5 and I was like "wow that must have been a fast stage" and almost didn't turn the feed on, but thought maybe I'd replay the end only to find the live race and that GCN did say, he won stage 5 in 2015!

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808 > NYC > PDX > YVR
2024 Races: Taupo

Don’t Think it’s the knee, he was very disappointed with himself after the stage - he actually Got dropped But came back in the end.
If someone else But Bernal has some sort of ambition in this race, they’d better attack earlier on the next uphill finish. If Dumoulin is getting better, they’ll shoot themselves in the foot if they Don’t drop him 10 seconds here and there Didnt see the Vuelta last year, But so far after the restart roglic isnt taking much time when he’s stronger, basically just a sprint. Looks a little like the way he lost the Giro last year (and Yates the year before that). My point is, even if roglic goes Down hard during the 3rd week, if Dumoulin is on the way up, the others Will be crushed in the time trial. Better get ridning Dumoulin while they Can and deal with roglic later on, even if it means losing 10-20 seconds to other podium contenders. Realistictly on Bernal and Roglic are contenders for the win, Dark horses being Dumoulin and Quintana. I would include Pinot, But he has a habit of making things harder for himself (I seriously doubt We’ll See a French winner in a very long time)

I guess my rough question is how much time all these guys need on Dumoulin before the Planche des Belles Filles TT to win the TdF. He is going to outride them big time on the flat/rollers for 30km and then there is 6km or so of uphill where he will likely match the best climbers for climbing time (no one surges on an uphill TT leg like in normal road stage).

I'll put money down right now that Dumoulin's Planche des Belles Filles climbing split is no more than 10 seconds slower than the top climber guys....so that leaves the rest of the TT for him to overcome any time losses during the next 2.5 weeks. Let's see. But he has to hang in the next few weeks. My feeling is if he is 90 seconds down, he has a chance to win on everyone but Roglic.

Depends on Roglic’ form at that point. He has a habit of disappointing a bit under pressure, still he might be 2nd or 3rd on 90%
If roglic is on the way Down and Dumoulin is peaking on the TT, if I we’re roglic and 90 secs in front of Dumoulin, i’d be seriously concerned

From: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/...n_the_Tour_de_France

As of 2011, the team classification is calculated by adding the times of the three best riders of each team per stage; time bonuses and penalties are ignored. In a team time trial, the team gets the time of the fifth rider of that team to cross the finish, or the last rider if there are fewer than five left for the team. If a team has fewer than three cyclists remaining, it is removed from this classification.

If you look at this objectively, Dumoulin should be Jumbo's backup plan but do nothing special to help Roglic win stage bonus seconds. If anything Dumoulin needs the likes of Bernal, Quintana, Pinot, Bardet and many more to take the stage bonus seconds and not Roglic!

Let's see how Roglic and Dumoulin make out on Stage 6


On a normal year, I would say this climb favours Bardet.....hammer the steepest part to the first summit, attack the downhill and recover and push on to the finish. But I think Yates should be able to keep the yellow jersey

We need flobikes to cover your bike tour and send us updates. It may be more interesting than these guys sitting for 2 more weeks keeping the pace high enough so that no climbers can really attack and make good gaps and then counting on the TT.

Maybe the most exciting thing will be the UCI handing out penalties willy nilly and flipping the GC constantly via that mechanism instead of the riding on the road :-)

I thought they eliminated Podium Hostess for this years tour. But I swear I just saw one at the end of stage six with aw Podium Host on the other side.

Hey all! Long-time listener, first-time caller. I started doing some updates and analysis on the TPC Blog for this year's Tour, mixing in a healthy amount of vintage history (can't resist!). My take: So far Jumbo-Visma has been looking strong... too strong! Bernal hasn't been perfect, but maybe he doesn't need to be until the third week.

https://www.theproscloset.com/blogs/news/musette-musings-your-guide-to-the-2020-tour-de-france


Let me know what you think, thanks!

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Spencer Powlison
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Content guy at The Pro's Closet

All the talk about Dumoulin seems to miss one key detail... he's working for Roglic. If he takes the tough pulls to help Roglic put time into other GC contenders, will he actually have legs left for the ITT? That might be why he looks "weak" already.

Cycling weekly has an article on Jumbo Visma using off brand wheels and other parts...how can it be that in todays world of bike tech they can not hit the 6.8kg limit??? to quote:"t’s a matter of grams; the WS+ are approximately 10 grams lighter than the C24s but are substantially lighter than the Dura-Ace C40 wheels that Jumbo-Visma has ridden in previous races. " really 10 g?

That is a fair point. But in theory he was doing a bit of the same at Dauphine so it could just be "not enough racing" in the legs to bounce back + 2 years older when he was 2nd at the Giro and TdF. But he's still reasonably young enough at 29 that his recovery should not be impacted like a mid 30's rider 2 years older

They now go with two "presenters": one male one female. They hand the rider the flowers and stuffed mascot.

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ECMGN Therapy Silicon Valley:
Depression, Neurocognitive problems, Dementias (Testing and Evaluation), Trauma and PTSD, Traumatic Brain Injury (TBI)

I believe the issue is they want something that's more areo than the C24's while still being light. So the WS+'s are as aero as the C40's but much lighter. If it was just weight they'd probably run the C24's but the C40's are too heavy for the aero gains they want.

Can anyone explain why there weren't any real attacks by the GC guys (Roglic, Pogacar, Bernal, Alaphilippe, etc.) at the end of stage 6? I know Alaphilippe got a couple of seconds back from that 20" penalty, but I would have thought someone would have given it a go with a K or two to go. Was it because the stage was already won ahead of them? Saving the legs for another climbing day?

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I really thought the steep part of Col de Lusette would result in an attack that tried to stay away but with the breakaway that far ahead they were going to wipe up all the stage bonus points. So the gamble during the 11 percent grade was if you could stay away and get the stage bonus points and time delta. With the bonus points pretty well gone I guess it was not worth a try going early and then no one trying to go with Alaphilippe at the end since there was only a delta of a few seconds to gain and no stage bonus points.

Because a long 4% grade is no match for a strong group like the one that finished together. The watts you would need to put out to get and stay away would be hard to recover from, and there are a couple of tough days coming up.

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That certainly makes way more sense than the Cycling Weekly point regarding weight. The black wheels shown were rather shallow wheels and seem to be used for climbing days as are the black Bianchi frames??? still any manufacturer/ team who can not make a frame and fit it out under the UCI weight limit is just not trying. I suspect it is more about the placebo effect, if the riders think it is more.... fill in the blank then they will ride it and believe in it. Josh at Silca did a whole pod cast on the placebo effect and such things. There was talk about the fact that Ineos did not (do not?) have a wheel sponsor so that they could buy the best wheels for the situation.

Bora is putting down the hammer for Sagan today and DeGhent hanging off the front 20 seconds and Sam Bennet ~5 min back. Anyone know who else is in the Bora/Yellow Jersey group who can sprint? Going to miss the finish...gotta go into a contract negotiation meeting!

Edit: I'll probably get back on the internet around EDT lunch time and see Van Aert took the sprint from the yellow+Bora group

Interesting shuffle on the day today. Bora really mixed it up today, but must feel like the sprint was anticlimactic for them.

What's your crystal ball say for tomorrow?

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Strava

Well I picked Van Aert this morning when I saw him in the break with Bora, but that felt like cheating since we only had 55km to go and no way they are dropping him. So of the people remaining who would have a good sprint.

Anyone want to put money on Bardet tomorrow to attack the downhill on the other side of Peyersourde?

Will Roglic make it through Stage 8 without falling? (I'm thinking about this year's CdD and last year's Giro.) If he falls, will the guys in the team car be stopped for a potty break?

Not going to happen. Roglic stays upright, goes off the front approaching the summit of Peyresourde, and solos to a 20-second stage win.

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"Human existence is based upon two pillars: Compassion and knowledge. Compassion without knowledge is ineffective; Knowledge without compassion is inhuman." Victor Weisskopf.

I have not turned on the coverage yet, but the ski jumper Roglic, gapped Froome + Thomas + Dumoulin on the descent of Aubisque in 2018 for the stage win and moved into top 3 the day before the ITT that year. Then Froome finished the ITT 1 second behind Dumoulin to go back into 3rd overall.

I mentioned it in the other TDF thread, but there are going to be a lot of positives in the coming weeks. There was no crowd or social distancing at all on the Peyresourde climb at the end. And those fans standing in the road yelling at the riders without masks...made me cringe.

COVID takes the yellow jersey this year.

Well I picked Bardet so felt like my pick was pretty good since he took first out of the yellow jersey group and that after craahi f today.

I was surprised that Tom D lost so much time but I guess he was working for roglic. Overall though there was no jumbo nor Ineos control on Peyresourde. Just a line up of GC guys all attacking each other.

My 2 cents is that the explosions on Peyresourde today were mainly caused by the Bora train for Sagan yesterday. They forced all the GC players to burn their legs.

It looks like Thibault Pinot did not recover from yesterday. He looked like he was totally lights out or maybe after effects from crashing at Dauphine

The fans on Peyresourde were nuts. Keep in mind all those fans hiked or rode up, so they are either healthy or asymptomatic Covid19 carriers. Let's hope there is enough airflow that it's not enough exposure to cause any riders getting sick

I just finished today's stage. Is it just me or is Liggett even worse this year? He literally stumbles over every other name, can't identify half the riders, and doesn't know where he is in the race when the cameras switch. Bob spends a significant amount of time correcting him.

I know he's been around forever, but come on, this is really bad.

I don't think he watches cycling other than the races he calls which is why he doesn't really know most of the riders.

I am watching on Flobikes in Canada. No Phil Ligget.

They should just get Lance and George to do the coverage. We don't need to love them but they know their stuff. Off to WeDu now!

I was thinking the same thing I don’t remember it ever being this bad and I generally watch quite a bit of the tour each year.

But I’m also not sure how much of this is a full production like normal so they may have more name queues and stuff to watch regular years. It may be generally harder to announce this year.

If available, watch the NBC no-ad feed. It's good. Simon Gerrans and Other Guy are both knowledgeable. They both know just about every rider at a glance, understand all the race dynamics. Minimal "chateau talk." They answer questions off Instagram.

And it'll be resplendent in the Vuelta leader's jersey

Yes it’s brutal. Someone needs to put him out of his misery I assume the only reason NBC keeps him around is to try to bring in casual viewers with his talk about the countryside and scenery.

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Let food be thy medicine...

So who do you think takes tomorrow on Marie Blanque and the decent to the finish. I hope they don't let a breakaway go and the GC are battling for the bonus points on the top of Marie Blanque and the stage finish. If you take the 8 at the top of Marie Blanque and 20 at stage finish that's a lot to snap up. The back half of Marie Blanque are Nairo Quintana friendly. I hope his legs are as good as today and he has a chance to give it a go, but he needs other GC teams to hold the breakaway back. If Podecar puts down the hammer, I think he can crack Roglic. It looks like Aru had a bad day or was saving his legs today to help Podecar tomorrow.



Meanwhile Rigoberto Uran is quietly shadow boxing for the entire first week kind of invisible in anonymity but never losing time at all. Arkea could send Warren Barguil with Winner Anacona up the road in the break to stage hunt as Barguil is far enough back that he would get some leish, but with the option of dropping back and helping a Quintana attack on Marie Blanque

Not only that, but today when Quintana and Roglic attacked, it looked like it was Uran who took up the chase. It's possibly those two stay away if Uran hadn't taken charge. And now that it looks like Higuita and Martinez are out of the GC picture, he's got two stellar climbing domestiques.

Not sure, but I think Roglic could do well. Perhaps he thought about going with Pogacar, then realized there's a hellish stage the next day and kept his powder dry. That climb does not look forgiving, at all, and I think it may be bye-bye for Yates

Dauphine winner is not a climbing Domestique!!!! That is crazy. Below are your top 10 from Dauphine final stage for a reminder of who was strong 3 weeks ago (keeping in mind Roglic and Quintana DNF'd, Pinot was banged up at Dauphine as was Sivakov, and they both crashed again early during TdF). Also did Kamna also crash early in TdF?:

1Sepp Kuss (USA) Team Jumbo-Visma3:58:392Daniel Martinez (Col) EF Pro Cycling0:00:273Tadej Pogacar (Slo) UAE Team Emirates0:00:304Pavel Sivakov (Rus) Team Ineos0:00:455Tom Dumoulin (Ned) Team Jumbo-Visma0:00:516Lennard Kämna (Ger) Bora-Hansgrohe7Thibaut Pinot (Fra) Groupama-FDJ0:01:028Guillaume Martin (Fra) Cofidis0:01:049Romain Bardet (Fra) AG2R la Mondiale0:01:0610Warren Barguil (Fra) Team Arkea-Samsic

I know you're probably kidding, but he's 21 minutes down. He's either a domestique or going for stage wins.

No No...I meant to type, "Dauphine winner is NOW a climbing domestique"...vs "NOT a climbing domestique". Should havee proof read. They can easily send him up the road to stage hunt (lets say with the aforementioned Barguil) and could drop back to help Uran. There are a few teams with well placed GC guys who have really good climbers way down who could stage hunt, but could also drop back and help (if they are even allowed to join the break). Let's see.

Is that online or cable?

Looks like Barguil got in the break, Martinez came across. Kamna is in it and Castraveijo made the jump across. And now Martinez jumps out of the group. Roads are wet, but not raining, but supposed to get bad.

Online for me.

I think that was more a case of not looking like you're going to chase everything down. When you do that you send the signal that you're stronger than everyone. He might well be, but probably doesnt want to advertise.

So, instead he let's the guy who was a minute back off the leash a bit.

Yesterday's stage was fantastic, but I personally think that Jumbo is blowing their strongest card.

Using Tom D to blow apart the GC group (and also put himself in a hole) seems like a bad investment to me. Tom is a proven week 3 performer. Roglic has proven as many times to cave in week 3 as he has do well in week 3. At 3 minutes down, he's only a GC threat if several people lose around 2 min before the ITT. Tom was solid at Dauphine and I think if he kept his powder dry, he could be the main guy in week 3 for everyone to be worried about. He would just sit on everyone and limit time loses on the steepest mountains and then take it all back and more on the ITT.

Now its all on Roglic and he has to worry about Carapaz+Bernal getting stronger. Quintana and Bardet are well placed, but what do you guys think about Rigoberto Uran. He will be stronger than most of the pure climbers for the ITT part of the ITT and will lose zero time on them for the climb part of the ITT

In a Dutch newspaper it was considered by Michael Boogerd a mistake of TDM that he burnt some matches for Roglic.
TDM himself said he did not feel good and did not feel to be favorite for the endvictory anymore. He said main thing Jumbo gets yellow and goes for the endvictory.

For me as a Dutchman of course I rather would like TDM to win. Maybe I should also have a look at Bouke Mollema, who seems very strong this year.

I'm watching in online through Peacock. $4.99 per month, so I get the whole tour for five bucks. Live race only.

Am I looking to much into this or does anyone think Hirschi may have had a solid mount for his computer that he may have been using as a pull point while pedaling? I know guys lean on the bars to get low, but he always had his hands on top of each other on the computer. I would think a typical mount would move around a lot more with the amount of times he perched his hands on there and wrapped around it. Is there anything to this?

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Great things never come from comfort zones.

Tomorrow's stage (Stage 10) could be scary if the winds pick up. I'll sometimes avoid railroad overpasses when the wind is blowing 20-30 mph, and they'll have a pretty long/tall bridge to cross to reach the finish on the Ile de Re. I'm reminded of the TTT on Stage 4 of the 2000 TdF, where the riders had to cross the long(er)/tall(er) bridge into St Nazaire, and how some of them thought that was pretty sketchy.

Throw in some crosswinds on the ride up the coast, and they could have a lot to deal with.

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"Human existence is based upon two pillars: Compassion and knowledge. Compassion without knowledge is ineffective; Knowledge without compassion is inhuman." Victor Weisskopf.

Probably not much benefit from 'pulling' on the mount when motoring along at 300-400W. He was usually back in the drops when sprinting out of the corners.

Roglic was a ski jumper is old news so I appreciate all the reminders that Guillaume Martin is a philosopher.

Unfortunately more banged up riders after today.

So who takes Green to Paris....Sagan can't seem to close any sprints this year. He just lacks the extreme top end. Bennet, Ewen and Trentin seem to have his number. If Wout Van Aert was given the go ahead he wins green in my book.

the real mountains are yet to come and sagan will go in breaks to harvest points which i don't think bennett or ewan can/will do. WvA would be an unbackable favourite if he wasn't on domestique duties but unless roglic hits major issues soon that won't happen. trentin will hopefully keep the competition going but i don't think he'll quite be able to pull it off. i expect sagan will have come into the tour underdone with backing up for the giro in mind so he should be strong later in the race - not necessarily top-end speed to win sprints but consistently up there even on the hardish stages

polka dots is a complete lottery for the moment

white = bernal vs pogacar

The finish today looks like WvA and Sagan favourable with a some up slope in the final 4000m

stretch at high speed that will take the sharpness away from the guys with pure speed. Lance was picking Sagan for today. He looked better yesterday but could not get around the Quickstep guys as the full on sprint started late after the lft bend

Well I mentioned the finish looked WvA and Sagan favourable and those guys tangled up pretty good just before the finish line when Sagan tried to muscle past WvA by the barriers, but nice job by Caleb Ewan on the other side. I felt like Sagan could have taken WvA out of the TdF if things went wrong by a millimeter only based on the overhead shot.

So the Commissaires agree and relegated Sagan to last place. So the green jersey race is really hot now since he got zero points.

https://www.cyclingnews.com/...int-shoulder-charge/

Worse than zero points, he lost points. The lead is now insurmountable IMHO. I'm wondering if Sagan will make it to Paris or if he'll drop out to prep for the Giro.

The organizers have no problem putting the cyclists in danger (1 roundabout a every 1.7 miles yesterday) but a head to the shoulder is a dangerous move

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All I Wanted Was A Pepsi, Just One Pepsi

Team Zoot, Team Zoot Mid-Atlantic

Well I want him or WvA to win Green, but what he did today, in my mind looked a bit dodgy and could have resulted in a massive pileup if it went 1mm the wrong way so he deserves points docked.

Sam Bennet looks in good place, but its not over till it is over. In ill timed puncture for anyone could mean the equivalent of last place points on any stage so lets see.

Hot? Or over? Are there enough points available for Sagan to catch up? He might have to WIN every Intermediate sprint and Finale from here to Paris and hope Bennett finishes no better than say third from now on?

I'm not great at that kind of mathematics here

"I must have the luck of the Irish, except I'm not Irish" - Billy Hoyle

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"What's your claim?" - Ben Gravy
"Your best work is the work you're excited about" - Rick Rubin

It looks like he's 68 points down, and the only good stage for Sagan is the last one. There's 180 points on offer for intermediate sprints, so it isn't mathematically impossible but given how Bennett has been riding so far, barring disaster it's pretty settled. But you're right, it can all change in an instant. One poorly navigated roundabout (and there's a lot of them!) can swing the tide, but just on how they're riding it doesn't look like Sagan's year.

Bennett can afford to take less risks now. So he is set. Peter did not need to muscle WvA to protect his green, as he was going to get good points, but it was probably bugging him that he had no stage wins, so he took the gamble, and now relegated. But Bennett or anyone else can get relegated from now to Paris, or flat or or or.

That was a difficult spot for Sagan to be in. He knew the only way he would have a shot at the stage win was if he made some room to be able to pass. He was not thinking about the green jersey at that point, he knew he really had a shot at a stage win but he had to get up there. I think the problem is that instead of nudging he threw the elbow and his head, thus a bit too aggressive. It's hard for me to fault the guy for trying to make some room since he really had a shot to win but he was too aggressive on the shove.

It's too bad because he is too far away now from a green jersey win and it's going to be really hard to get a stage win on the remaining stages. A stage win would be the only thing that would salvage this tour for Sagan, but I don't see that happening. On to the Giro...

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http://dontletitdefeatyou.blogspot.com

Yeah, or maybe he was thinking about that time Cav tried something similar and he put him into the barriers.

He deserved to be relegated. He sought out the contact and he moved WvA over at least a foot with the shove.

He could have easily ended the TdF for WvA and himself today so the relegation was fair.

But I think he soldiers on and keeps up the fight for the Green even if mathematically nearly impossible. I look forward to hearing George Hincapie's views on WeDu tonight.

He should have watched Ackerman's sprint the other day - guy is even bigger and fit through a Cav sized hole along the barriers to beat Gavira.

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"It's good enough for who it's for" - Grandpa Wayne

Quote from Van Aert from velonews.com:

The 25-year-old Belgian was incredulous at Sagan’s actions. When asked if Sagan’s move was due to the Slovakian’s impeccable bike-handling skills, van Aert shot back.



“This is a really weird way of thinking. I think I’m also a good bike handler but it never comes into my mind to create space like that,” van Aert said. “There wasn’t a gap, and if you use your elbows to open it up, I think it’s completely against the rules. For me, it’s not reasonable and not done.”

That’s being kind to Sagan. van Aert was in contention to win before Sagan shoved him over and blew his momentum.

This is what I posted on this thread at 11:49 EDT right after the finish before the commissaires put the hammer on Sagan (rightful penalty):

Well I mentioned the finish looked WvA and Sagan favourable and those guys tangled up pretty good just before the finish line when Sagan tried to muscle past WvA by the barriers, but nice job by Caleb Ewan on the other side. I felt like Sagan could have taken WvA out of the TdF if things went wrong by a millimeter only based on the overhead shot.

could have gone either way. There has been sprint bumping before that has gone uncalled. As a Sagan fan, I'm not happy, but I see the other side.

Not sure if this is the right spot for this or if it needs another thread, but is anyone else annoyed by the Velonews prime or insider subscription to access some of their articles? 99$ is pretty steep, but that's my $0.02

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Great things never come from comfort zones.

Well its velonews' biz and what they want to put inside their paywall. I am spending my time mainly on other cycling websites that have advertiser supported content, but I make sure I go to velonews 1x per day to read their free perspective.

I agree the cost of velonews is pretty steep. I am getting flobikes.com video feeds for $12.50 per month (well it's $150 for the year and then you have to cancel outstanding months you don't use).

Word on the street is that Sagan jumped left to avoid a selfie-stick he suddenly saw hanging over the barriers



Looks reasonable

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"What's your claim?" - Ben Gravy
"Your best work is the work you're excited about" - Rick Rubin

He was asked about this in an interview this morning and he said he didn't see the selfie stick.

In the article he says he was trying to avoid the advertising vertical pillar (the one tht says Leclerc) because otherwise if he kept going the way they were his right handlebar would hit it:

https://www.cyclingnews.com/...as-a-dangerous-move/

I just played the thing back frame by frame and you can see then they suddenly come up to the advertising pillars that he does his push on WvA's hip. When you see the photos from in front, it looks like there is no excuse, but when you look at the overhead camera at full speed, those advertising pillars are not anywhere in the shot and suddenly they show up.

Its still debateable if he would hit them, but maybe the larger question is why advertising is trumping riders safety in course design. Remember when Abdou hit the massive Coke Can pillar on Champs ?



and the debate on why that advertising needed to be there?

A single photo frame does not tell the tale, but look at that photo and tell me who is centered on their bike and who is leaning into the other rider? Look at the head tubes and seatposts relative to rider body.

When I watched the overhead, WvA was moving across the road to the right, but holding his line. Nothing sudden and the hole would have closed right around the advertising pillar. Maybe Sagan thought he could thread the needle like Caleb Ewan last week, but he left the advertising pillars out of his calculation. If you look at the geometry of the board your wheel can be right on the board (one mm to the left of it) and handlebar in the air vertically over the slanting board...until their a vertical pillar and no room in space for your handlebar.

Its not excusing Sagan, because everyone knows where these pillars are. He may have forgotten what the design of the finish is at every stage with these pillars.

Also on that image, for a normal body position, the head should be over the pedal you are about to push down on, not over the pedal where your foot is down....but timing is everything.

OK today Bernal is saying his power numbers are best ever:

https://www.cyclingnews.com/...rall-on-le-puy-mary/


and Roglic and Pogacar just rode away from him. I was kind of hoping to see Nairo Quintana and Bernal do some damage on Puy Marie.

Dev,

I'm excited about the whole Tour and the race within the race, the shake ups on GC are all a thrill. I'm really happy to see Rigoberto Uran just 11sec off the podium and I'd like to see Neilson, Tejay, Martinez, etc rally around him to support - even if Bernal's numbers are fab this might be an opportunity for him to podium in Paris again.

Ian

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Ian Murray
http://www.TriathlonTrainingSeries.com
I like the pursuit of mastery
Twitter - @TriCoachIan

I think if Rigo can limit any losses in the next week, he has a great chance to podium in the final ITT. It feels like the Slovenians may have had a small advantage given their less than tight lockdown vs many other countries. For example they held their nationals in June before anyone was even close to racing again.

As I mentioned on the other thread...I wonder why Pogacar is not publishing his power any more?

I hope it's nothing sinister, but I fear we have been down this road before...and before...and before

Remember when Lemond, as an early SRM user said he was hitting the same numbers are the previous years, and Indurain, Bugno, Chiapucci and others suddenly were blowing the doors off. Now is Bernal saying his numbers are best ever, but its just talk just to stir the pot, or is he actually posting his own (forget about Pogacar).

'Sky' have been very guarded with which power data they post...Bernal hasn't had anything up for weeks.

Yeah this is roughly my point. Pogacar's Peyresourde climb has now been dissected to death. Bernal blabs off that he's doing close to all time, yet he got dusted today by around 40 seconds. This seems to be an underhanded jab at trying to say that everyone else is not normal given that he won last year on just as good numbers. For all we know he was posting all time best numbers and his brakes were rubbing, or he had a slow leak, or maybe he just thinks his numbers were all time best but he is out of shape or his back is sore and he's several watts down over last year. Or Roglic and Pogacar are super high.

I'm tipping a combo of both. But the cycling fan in me is reasonably cynical about what is going on at the pointy end.

I am with you on "combo of both". No way last year's Bernal cannot keep up with Richie Porte who dropped him today.

Bernal also looked a bit like a guy bonking today. Maybe he just messed up hiis fueling. It was a 5 hrs stage with 4400m of vertical. The total vertical crept up because of the sawtooth profile

Not replying to anyone in particular, but what has happened to Tejay?
His performance has fallen off a cliff. To be fair, I haven't closely followed bike racing in a couple of years so this may have been a developing trend.

Yup, that's it. He's not a TdF GC guy, he's riding for the team. I don't follow the races outside of TdF as closely, so I can't speak to his performance there, but if you're not the GC guy for the TdF, the time really doesn't matter. EF is riding for Rigo and stage wins, and they had a good day today. And maybe team overall too.

The third option would be that Bernal is indeed hitting his all time numbers, but that he lucked out last year with a weak competitive field.

Then again, getting dropped by half the GC field yesterday may suggest that his numbers aren't all that great.

I think Bernal is bullshitting. He got dropped by 35 year old Richie Porte, Lopez Quintana (who crashed), Landa etc etc. It sounds like sour grapes or him changing power meters. It would be one thing if he was hitting all time numbers and in third and put the Slovenians in question (as thats an open question after Peyseroude), but without putting up his numbers unless everyone around him is on Ferrari orange juice and way above their bio passport, then Bernal was down.

George Hincapie predicted today perfectly. He said that the GC teams should keep the breakaway close enough so that the teams of the "climbing sprinters" have motivation that they can bring it back and win in a potential sprint and then the for the rest of the day, the GC teams can sit in and draft and have a day off. Looks like that is what is going on, with Bora but CCC is not playing yet for GvA.

Stefan Kung on a massive TTT

Bennet group off the back and Bennet has cracked. So now it looks like its going to be Wout Van Aert, Sagan, Peterson, Trentin and GvA....but lots of riders in here who could also attack earlier on the sprinter teams.

Bora drove hard two days ago, on a 'Hilly' stage, with climbs of 4-4-3-2.

Today is 'Flat' with climbs of 4-2-3-4-4 (and 14 miles shorter than stage 12).

No brainer that they would drive the front hard today after the relegation. I wouldn't be quick to send my team up to do any work when Bora is so motivated to drive up front.

I think the question is whether the long-range solo attacks come on the penultimate climb or the last one.

Also doesn't help that his team isn't as strong, and Bernal was isolated when Sepp Kuss and Tom Dumoulin went to work. We missed a lot of that watching the excellent Martinez-Kamna-Schachmann battle. Sean Yates called out Ineos for apparently being stuck in history, pretending like they can use the exact same tactics they always have. When their team is fundamentally different. No one trembles with fear anymore when Ineos goes to the front on a long climb. It looked like Roglic and Pogacar were casually chatting when Kwiatowski and Castroviejo were going as hard as they could.

Quite surprised than Bennett held on so long. DQS kept the pressure on then CCC started working with Bora and Bennett went past his limit. Time to sit up.

The question is how much will all that work have taken out of Sagan? Bennett could also be fried. I have no insight into any rider's state in week 3 of a GT. Coming week is brutal.

Bit surprised that CCC did so much work for little return. Once the gap was established, if they had sat in like Sunweb I think they would have had much better results.

It'll be a ding dong battle for the intermediate sprints for the next few stages. Stage 19 is the only opportunity for Bora to make major gains on intermediate sprint and finale, it'll be hard not to see a breakaway going on this stage unless Bora turn themselves inside out to chase all day.

Bora has put down quite an effort the past 3 days and walked away with little to show for it. Today was especially tough... didn't pick up enough points to give Sagan more than a slim chance, but picked up enough that it's still worth contesting.

Stage 19 is definitely a chance for big points, but I think they'll have to push it early on 16 too and hope they can drop Bennett before the intermediate. That would be huge for Sagan if they could pull it off.

When Julian Alaphilippe could destroy people at the front a year ago and now looks more like a domestic it does make you wonder what is going on