Yes. A lot of Kona winners have been in the back half of their 30s. Alexander won last at 38. Frodeno threw down possibly the best half distance performance ever last year at 37, improving his off bike run best by 2-3min (not easily comparable I know, but still).

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Group Eleven – Websites for Athletes / mikael.racing / @mstaer

That should help him run faster, as long as he maintains cadence

Who is the oldest first time winner?

I don't think he's gonna suddenly run 2:45 at all. That's gonna take some work. As others have said...he travels a whole freakin' lot while doing all of this high volume training...which for the most part seems to go against the grain of all those that are on the podium. PJC stated guys like Potts or Sanders train in a shed...well Andy is 42 and just enjoying this thing like Crowie. Can still compete at a high level on any given day. Does Sanders not enjoy training or enjoy life? I don't get that vibe at all.

I'm just looking at Wurf's one weapon, and it's not even close to enough. Yeah we could say Lange is just a runner...but his swim and bike are decent. It's not like he rolled in at #50 on the bike and ran him down at the end. He ran him down early and wouldn't be able to do that without a decent biking ability.

So in the end I guess you could say I don't think Wurf is a Kona podium contender given the strengths of the field, but he can make it interesting and win a ton of races in between.

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Washed up footy player turned Triathlete.

Absolutely his swim and run will improve as he is not close to his max. And I guess we agree his bike is in a good place but even there he has maybe a couple of minutes. I don't expect him to slow down on the bike the next 4 years.

Now we agree had he started tri 3years earlier he could likely have become better than he will become now as he did start a bit to late but nonetheless his swim and run will improve ( have a look at his pre kona swims last year and the year before I think he was the pro that improved his times the most) he is still quite inconsistent in the open water but he has shown a few good swims as well and with experience that will get better.
Likewise are his run times coming down.

Craig Alexander at 35. Frodeno, McCormack and John Howard (1981) tied at 34.
Most first time winners have been around 30, with a few notable exceptions in the earlier parts of their late 20s (26,27).

This doesn't prove or disprove anything though. Howard came through in the very early years before the men were doing sub 9. Frodeno switched from short course a bit later than normal, but was also perhaps a late bloomer in ITU. McCormack took a long time to figure it out, and Alexander was a late bloomer, only achieving international success in his early 30s.

Wurf is coming from a high international level at two other sports and has been a life long performance athlete, and is only a few years into his triathlon career. I agree that given the right conditions, he could at least podium. Chris Lieto did it with a main (not front) pack swim, a best-in-class bike and a sub par run (never went under 3:00 in Kona) as did Torbjørn Sindballe (albeit with a slightly better run).

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Group Eleven – Websites for Athletes / mikael.racing / @mstaer

I guess the real question is, what does Wurf need to run in order to "hang on" for an win and/or podium. And how does he get there on the run.

2:50 roughly as the slowest he can run and podium? And that's a 2:50 in Kona*

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

Let's use the facts 9.30 min down on podium this year
Maybe 2 min swim improvement possible in next 2 years
This year was runner year so maybe 2 min he can get there if they slow down more than him with a bit more wind
So he needs to run 3 and he has avert good podium shot
So that's not unrealistic.
He will not have too run 2.50 for podium. Even on the calmest day possible. Like last year a 2.57 with no swim improvement would have been enough. But his swim numbers do show he will improve in the next 2 years...

Wurf is really new to the running part. He has said before that he has been really cautious with his running in training. This year is the first year that he's really focusing on running in training. I believe he's running the London Marathon on Sunday with a goal to run 2:35-2:40. Once he's able to get the speed in his legs I think we can see some incredible runs from him in races.
The fact that he has been doing all these races in the last few years is because he never went all out in the run. He has never been able to really push in the run leg due to missing the speed. So at the end of an IronMan he relatively fresh which allows him to race a lot.

I'll give you the swim improvement. Interesting to note that he and Butterfield came out in the Kona swim pack all together and then here at this Cannes race, Wurf beat him out of water I believe by 40s.


I think the issue though is that when the "lights" are turned on, Wurf while improving a ton over 2 years of racing Kona still had the 17th fastest run out of the top 20. So whether that's from over biking to a Kona course record, or poor nutrition or whatever reason, he still ran a 3:06. ETA: or maybe that’s the best he can do at this time. Can he improve that?

I think so, but again I think for his career and where he's at and a late bloomer but older athlete- I'd keep on doing what he's doing. Go crush the bike and hold on on the run to a bunch of wins and $$. Because I just dont see a successful podium Kona result on his ledger other than with an "difficult" race conditions. IE- to me he's the "breakaway" guy that's hoping to hold on and will get caught by people and then next thing you know your hoping to finish in the money. I dont think he has it to expect/think he can podium. Now of course he thinks he can and he wants to, all athletes do. And I'm betting his coach/support staff is all building him up to win/podium Kona- they should be that's part of their job. But at the end of the day like a bunch of TdF "contenders", they all have 1 bad stage every single year that leaves them finishing in 6th when everyone thought they had a shot to podium.

So I dont think it's a knock, I think it's kinda the reality of the situation when your run just isn't there. You only have so many cards to play with that hand. So I think Wurf's doing a great professional job of just going out and racing and making bank, and not "banking" on Kona as his end all be all. I would think that would be a foolish step to race only a few times and put it all on the line in Kona. I just dont think the run is there to make that play.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

Here is how "his day" plays out in my head: He'll be a front pack swimmer and get on the bike early. The day won't be a calm wind day, but it won't be "horrible", but not good for the lighter bikers. He'll hit the bike hard and put in a gap and the other players will do the "he doesn't have the run, and I can't risk blowing up to chase him", and that will be the separation that he needs that they'll never close. His lead will be big enough that his "improved" run will just be enough and everyone will say "why didn't I let him get away on the bike." It'll have to play out perfectly for him, but I think with an improved run and a field that thinks he can't maintain on the run, he'll have his day. But no matter what with his swim and his bike he'll be "there" at the start of the run, and that alone gives him a shot every time he races...just needs a few things to work out in his favor and it's his. And I think they do. AND I look forward to him on social media after it does!! haha

I basically agree with this...but with him being able to improve enough and pulling it off. But it'll be a fine line and if he plays out just like you stated here, I wouldn't be surprised either.

i think he is running conservatively in most races so can handle that (his bike background means the rest of the volume is fine for him). i imagine he will reduce that race/travel volume and focus on key goals once he has his run dialed in such as to be truly competitive. he would be silly to bank everything on kona when realistically he needs it to be windy to be in with a chance. in the meantime, he is dong very well for himself and enjoying life travelling, training and racing.

one of these days wurf will get his running to the point where he is confident to push it hard in training and then racing. if his first race really going to the wall is a windy kona then look out anyone who gives him a big gap on the bike. i wouldn't be surprised if he held back on showing his running form in the hope of such a day

Let's use the facts 9.30 min down on podium this year
Maybe 2 min swim improvement possible in next 2 years
This year was runner year so maybe 2 min he can get there if they slow down more than him with a bit more wind
So he needs to run 3 and he has avert good podium shot
So that's not unrealistic.
He will not have too run 2.50 for podium. Even on the calmest day possible. Like last year a 2.57 with no swim improvement would have been enough. But his swim numbers do show he will improve in the next 2 years...


Heres the thing that you and a lot of folks here keep forgetting, he will not get faster in the swim and run, not without losing time on his bike. It has been the nature of single sporters that come to triathlon, you can get a lot of low hanging fruit in the other two sports, but eventually at the pointy end, it will cost you in your original sport. No one has been immune from that. I think Wurf will kind of be in the Steve Larsen mold, getting better and better, but winning the bike by less and less. Just take a look at this last race, he barley beats Don on the bike, who by all accounts is not what he used to be, but then runs better than usual. I think he is already transitioning in this regard, and in the end will net him the best places overall. But you will not be able to factor in his old bike splits, and faster swims and runs. As he becomes a more complete triathlete, his bike splits will look more like the normal uberbikers..

I've often wondered how well he would do if he didn't ride so honestly. He should slow down and bike with the rest of the front group so that he gets all of the energy savings of the bike drafting like the rest. Then run balls out.

I've often wondered how well he would do if he didn't ride so honestly. He should slow down and bike with the rest of the front group so that he gets all of the energy savings of the bike drafting like the rest. Then run balls out.

No, that is not a good strategy for him at all. Even if he did what you propose, and is just warmed up for the run and able to run an absolute stand alone PR, he will still lose. His best hope is like a breakaway swimmer, set a pace that is at the upper limits of your competition, at some point snap them off so that at least one other guy(probably several as we have seen) has to pull still wind(and often without a Moto too), and take some time out of the run legs of those that stay in contention on the bike. He has to find that sweet spot of riding hard enough to do this, and run as close to his standalone as his body allows. The best guys lose only 20 or so minutes in Kona, he needs to be in that range. Of course he has to get his stand alone to the mid 2;30's or thereabouts, but that is really not that fast for most pro guys, really run of the mill...

You are absolutely right. I should have written my previous post in pink. I still get annoyed about even top pros who take advantage of the "draft zone." A lot of energy savings even when at legal distances. The best bikers who ride in the wind take a penalty for those efforts.

Jacobs only had one weapon of swimming but developed his run into one of the best in Kona.

He could have broken 40 minutes in Kona in the swim but never did.

It's the same reason I am sure that wurf could break 4 hours in Kona on the bike but then he would run 3:30.

He is riding with plenty in reserve and has said so in a few podcasts.

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40 minutes is a bit optimistic isn't it? Jacobs was not an olympic level swimmer...

Olympic swimmers don't swim in wetsuits

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when did someone last wear a wetsuit in the kona race?

Let's use the facts 9.30 min down on podium this year
Maybe 2 min swim improvement possible in next 2 years
This year was runner year so maybe 2 min he can get there if they slow down more than him with a bit more wind
So he needs to run 3 and he has avert good podium shot
So that's not unrealistic.
He will not have too run 2.50 for podium. Even on the calmest day possible. Like last year a 2.57 with no swim improvement would have been enough. But his swim numbers do show he will improve in the next 2 years...


Heres the thing that you and a lot of folks here keep forgetting, he will not get faster in the swim and run, not without losing time on his bike. It has been the nature of single sporters that come to triathlon, you can get a lot of low hanging fruit in the other two sports, but eventually at the pointy end, it will cost you in your original sport. No one has been immune from that. I think Wurf will kind of be in the Steve Larsen mold, getting better and better, but winning the bike by less and less. Just take a look at this last race, he barley beats Don on the bike, who by all accounts is not what he used to be, but then runs better than usual. I think he is already transitioning in this regard, and in the end will net him the best places overall. But you will not be able to factor in his old bike splits, and faster swims and runs. As he becomes a more complete triathlete, his bike splits will look more like the normal uberbikers..[/quote]

Don't disagree with what you say, but Wurf's power data suggests that he didn't push the bike after he caught Don - and as the pic below (which Wurf captioned "That's me telling Tim if he follows me on the bike I'll just outrun him.. ") suggests - Don likely did all he could to hang on & likely blew as a result.

The thing is he looks controlled on the bike he could push probably a bit more.
Re swim he has a solid background so it's not something he has to work as hard as kienle or sanders or lagoon. Farris said it nicely he said pure watts stadler is still the one that pushed the most watts and my guess would be wurf could match him if he wanted or at least get closer. In the last 2 years he has not slowed down on bike while improving swim and run. So I think he will lose minimal on the bike.
But of course you are right the air is getting thinner and I do not see him winning Kona. But unlike larson he has a much better swim background and talent for that. So I am very sure he will go further than larson.

The other thing he has for him he came 9 th with good knows how many full IM he did so he could certainly peak more by racing more sparingly and put the focus on Kona
I mean this is where Lange and mc namee are extremely smart.

You know what I mean. Jacobs never smashed the swim in any ironman.

It’s pointless leading out of the water by 5 minutes and riding alone and not getting the legal pacing that people like Lange does.

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