He needs to run 2:45, somewhere hot. All of his best runs are in pristine conditions and they aren't "fast" compared to the runners he competes against.

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Washed up footy player turned Triathlete.

If it were only that easy.

ETA: He likely "cant" run 2:45 in "hot" conditions and thus in all likelihood Dev is correct in what Wurf's Kona conditions will be needed in order to win.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

Meaning? That is just two seasons. One time injured during, one time before the race. Three is a charm. He has been dominant throughout both seasons before kona. Obviously there is no guarantee he can make it healthy to the starting line. But if he does it will take a special effort to beat him for sure. An effort I don’t think Wurf is capable off. Maybe Lnage as Kona suits him well.

Meaning saying a fit Frodo will leave them in the dust is kinda pointless after 2 years of "injury" issues + the start of 2019 with some injuries.

And no I'm not suggesting Wurf can beat Frodo or Lange. I'm saying that a healthy Frodo in Kona will be the 1st time in 3 years and with his current fitness/injury issues, it's kinda a moot point to make.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

I would love to see a fit Frodo in Kona. He used up his perfect Kona race in a combo of running like a Kenyan at both IM Frankfurt and 70.3 World's twice last year Frodo had amazing untouchable fitness and performance. He totally dusted Lange in Frankfurt.

On a big wind year, I think Wurf can beat Lange but not a ready Frodo. He's less than 1 year out from being the fastest triathlete in the world in both 70.3 and IM distance (Frankfurt), and his two kona "gap years" aside, I think he can do it.

He's less than 1 year out from being the fastest triathlete in the world in both 70.3 and IM distance (Frankfurt), and his two kona "gap years" aside, I think he can do it.

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But you can't put his "gap years" aside, that's my point. So I'm not saying he can't do what you are suggesting. I'm saying he's not been able to do what yall suggested in Kona for 2 years in a row. Whatever he's done he basically has broken himself back to back years in Kona. And he has what started 2019 with an injury as well?

So can he come back? He probaly can, I'm just saying he's got to be able to showcase his fitness, not sitting on the sidelines while others duke it out in Kona and have people "theorize" what he can do.

ETA: Especially "gap years" that were created by injuries. At some point injuries start to add up, so it doesn't really matter what a "fit" top athlete will do. It's what the reality is right now can do. If you can't stay healthy to make the big dance, it's irrelevant to say what you can do when "fit" at a certain point.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

Don't forget that Stadler was a legit runner when he wanted to be. Marathon PR was 2.29 and ~29 min 10k PR IIRC.

I just don't see it then. If he's not going to race hard conditions weather wise and course wise...say Lanzarote and post a solid half-marathon on the bike I see a guy who's mostly at the back end timeline of a career vs. a Lange who is three years younger or a Sanders who is 4 years younger.

That doesn't even count all of the other young guys in the sport that are coming up. His bike is great, but for it to truly be weapon it's gonna be one of the worst Kona days in a long time as far as wind is concerned...but somehow still cool for him to hammer his run.

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Washed up footy player turned Triathlete.

Skipper and Wurf 1-2 at Kona

Same here. What a great guy!

I don’t think anyone sees it thus the whole “perfect” hard wind day for him to even have a chance.

But I think the issue is this. At the end of the day Wurf has to eat just like every other pro. This is a sport that only a few minority can cherry pick their schedule to prepare for best Kona performance. The rest have to race to win $$, and that may mean their prep isn’t perfect or not putting them in best Kona position w respect to weather. It’s just not a sport that can allow that for most of its pros.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

Frodo is too old now. Won’t win Kona again. Too many reasons why. Old. Family. No dying desire. Same with sanders. Zero chance now. Younger guys want to way more and will trynat any cost.

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This is why the Frodo situation is funny.

He does not need to win every race that he shows up at. He can sandbag all year (like Macca in 2010) and just peak in a timely manner for Kona.

Frodo was on fire at Oceanside, Frankfurt and 70.3 World's last year....we're talking about being unbeatable form from late March to early September which is a long long time to hold form especially on the running side because you can't hold run form without "shaved and tapered" body composition. Meanwhile Lange was kinda out of shape at Frankfurt and again this year, he was "out of shape" at the Berlin half marathon. But be certain that Lange will show up at Kona for the dance, ripped, shaved, tapered, tanned and ready to roll.

If Frodo just does it for Kona he won't be injured, but it feels like he is a race horse who can't enter a race and sandbag it. From a distance as a fan, I feel he "seems" to have the same "problem" as Chrissie Wellington. When the timing chip goes on, its a world record attempt.

Wurf on the other hand, does not have the risk of the fleet footed guys like Frodo or Lange. he runs "slow enough" most of the time that the wear and tear is not as bad.

NOT saying he wasn't legit, but the best marathon time I know of was 2:32, and 10K PR was nowhere in the 29 range.

wurf's racing schedule is a major red flag for me - the guy travels non-stop and does a ton of long-course racing.

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____________________________________
https://lshtm.academia.edu/MikeCallaghan

http://howtobeswiss.blogspot.ch/

Google tells me he ran 2.32 in Frankfurt. I swear that he ran 2.29 in Berlin and remember thinking he qualified for trials. Could be mistaken though. I do remember an interview with him talking about his background and he listed his run times. He actually has a running background and had some crazy fast times. Again, can't recall where I saw this though.

Point being, Stadler was not a one hit wonder that went on suicide mission on bike and then trotted the run. He could hammer the bike and still run fast even in the brutal conditions of early 00s. Wurf will win Kona as many times as Steve Larsen did.

I have to ask- do you consider Wurf an actual Kona contender? If not, then I think all Wurf is doing is basically living out the pro lifestyle string until it runs out. He's not going to suddenly run 2:45 in hot conditions like StroBro wants him to do. I think he's simply taking advantage of a very strong bike strength in races that he can make some coin while traveling the world. So I dont think he's over doing it. I think he's taking advantage cus I dont think Kona's in his cards. So I dont think it's very wise to "save it for Kona" in his position. A guy like Frodo or Lange- your damn right you better save your legs for Kona. But a guy who can't break 2:50 in the marathon, no way in hell he's ever going to be near even a real top 5 in all liklihood. He's more closer to top 10 than top 3/5 almost every time he'll race in Kona.

ETA: I think that's a very "fair" assessment yes? I mean Wurf's made HUGE strides in the short time he's come into triathlon. But winning in Kona takes a special breed op top of those racing the 70ish IM events across the globe.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

Massive crosswinds on the bike, and Wurf would only need to run ~3hr's because a) he'd come off the bike 10-15 minutes up, and the good runners aren't going to run so fast after a hard ride.

Thats my logic, anyhow...

Stadler was also 1994 World Duathlon champion....5K run, 40K bike 10K run If I recall correctly. you don't win that without the ability to run.

I think Wurf would need 10 min on Frodo and 16 min on Lange to win on a big crosswind day. Wurf 3:00, Frodo 2:50, Lange 2:44....sprint finish. We can only dream. Lionel hops in with a 2:55 run after coming to T2 6 min behind Wurf and gets passed by Frodo coming down Palani and by Lange at the banyan tree.

Dev

Despite I am a wurf fan I think he would need a few minutes more but I support your theory.

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oh, my comment had nothing to do with kona. otherwise i agree with your assessment - horses for courses and all that.

but even setting kona aside, I cock an eyebrow at someone in their mid-30s who travels that much and goes hard and long that often.

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____________________________________
https://lshtm.academia.edu/MikeCallaghan

http://howtobeswiss.blogspot.ch/

i would think his long term goal is a podium at kona, he is relatively new to the sport and once you make top ten without being maxed out thats a good stepping stone to podium. so i guess in 2- 3 years time he could be a podium contender.
overall i think he plays a smart game he is very well known for his current level . maybe he races a bit to much but overall i think he doing a lot right . ( and no i did not expect him to make top 10 2018 more like top 15 and of course his bs markteing stuff to win is just bs ... and i prefer people that like mac namee just get on with getting results quietly but then he did not have a bike sponsor last year ...)

I personally enjoy the banter and cockiness Wurf brings, and I do see him having a shot at winning or at the very least getting a podium on even a "normal" wind day in Kona. Since he has shown he can swim front pack, and put 15 min on the runners at least, he just needs to get his run down, which he has, though not enough. His run in Cannes was pretty good, and if he can hold 3:45/k for 16k, he is not far from 2:50 marathon shape.

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Terrible Tuesday’s Triathlon

Long term goal at age 36? He is going to peak at age 38/39?