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USAT Age Group Nationals Psych Sheets
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I created psych sheets for USAT Age Group Nationals:

Olympic Distance Psych Sheet
Sprint Distance Psych Sheet

I ranked people by their best USAT scores, discounting the scores if they were from previous years and/or were calculated using less than 3 races.
You can see which age groups might be more competitive based on the percent that have been All-Americans.
I also attempted to predict times, assuming a winning time of 1:55:00 in the Olympic race and 59:00 in the Sprint race, and using the athlete's normalized/discounted USAT score to calculate the prediction.

I will try to update the document in the coming weeks as more people register.
Last edited by: triryan: Jul 4, 18 20:52
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Re: USAT Age Group Nationals Psych Sheets [triryan] [ In reply to ]
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That’s awesome! Is that a living doc - will you update as we get closer, or is it more of a snapshot?

Aaron Bales
Lansing Triathlon Team
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Re: USAT Age Group Nationals Psych Sheets [MI_Mumps] [ In reply to ]
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MI_Mumps wrote:
That’s awesome! Is that a living doc - will you update as we get closer, or is it more of a snapshot?

Yea, forgot to mention that...edited the initial post to say that's my intention as more registrations come in.
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Re: USAT Age Group Nationals Psych Sheets [triryan] [ In reply to ]
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Are sprints that much less competitive that their assumed winning pace is slower than an Olympic? Or is there another reason?
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Re: USAT Age Group Nationals Psych Sheets [triryan] [ In reply to ]
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How will it calculate someone with a high score from this year, but hasn't been very consistent with getting 3 scored races in a year?
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Re: USAT Age Group Nationals Psych Sheets [triryan] [ In reply to ]
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Very interesting... I'm in 40-44M and it is competitive for sure as I'm in both the Oly and Sprint. Will be interesting to see how accurate it is and how the course races time wise.
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Re: USAT Age Group Nationals Psych Sheets [Nonojohn] [ In reply to ]
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Nonojohn wrote:
Are sprints that much less competitive that their assumed winning pace is slower than an Olympic? Or is there another reason?

In general yes. There is no qualification for sprint nationals so you’ll get more people who are close to race wanting to race vs people flying in from all over the US. Also the people who double up are going to have a bit slower pace anyways from racing the day before.

-----------------------------------------------------------
De Soto Sport Athlete
Formerly Draketriathlon
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Re: USAT Age Group Nationals Psych Sheets [Nonojohn] [ In reply to ]
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That will change as the sprint is the easiest to do w no qualification + quality of athletes going for elite license is only going up w new elite qualification standards. See morgan Pearson last year. He did that purely to qualify for elite card.

http://www.aomultisport.com
instagram-@alloutmultisport
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Re: USAT Age Group Nationals Psych Sheets [B_Doughtie] [ In reply to ]
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what are the new standards?
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Re: USAT Age Group Nationals Psych Sheets [triryan] [ In reply to ]
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FYI, athletes won't be able to compete at both the Oly and sprint distances next year at Worlds, so that may affect the distribution of talent across both races this year compared to previous years where you could qualify for both.
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Re: USAT Age Group Nationals Psych Sheets [imswimmer328] [ In reply to ]
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imswimmer328 wrote:
How will it calculate someone with a high score from this year, but hasn't been very consistent with getting 3 scored races in a year?

It uses the highest "computed" score since 2014...the actual score minus a point for every year in the past and minus two points if the score is from less than three races.
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Re: USAT Age Group Nationals Psych Sheets [Grant.Reuter] [ In reply to ]
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Also, I just looked at previous winning times compared to assumed course difficulty to come up with these guesses...however, if you subtract a fixed 3 minutes for transitions, the paces happen to be identical.


Grant.Reuter wrote:
Nonojohn wrote:
Are sprints that much less competitive that their assumed winning pace is slower than an Olympic? Or is there another reason?


In general yes. There is no qualification for sprint nationals so you’ll get more people who are close to race wanting to race vs people flying in from all over the US. Also the people who double up are going to have a bit slower pace anyways from racing the day before.
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Re: USAT Age Group Nationals Psych Sheets [LifeTri] [ In reply to ]
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There are some DL specific pathways to get 1 year provisional license and the full on 3 year licenses.

http://www.aomultisport.com
instagram-@alloutmultisport
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Re: USAT Age Group Nationals Psych Sheets [triryan] [ In reply to ]
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Great Stuff. Thanks. I'll take my projected finish. Do I still need to race ;-] ?
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Re: USAT Age Group Nationals Psych Sheets [triryan] [ In reply to ]
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Thanks for posting this, needed the remonder to go register for nationals.

Brian Stover
Accelerate3 Coaching
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Re: USAT Age Group Nationals Psych Sheets [triryan] [ In reply to ]
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Thanks. Nice work.

I took the top 50 from the M50-54 and applied the age up rule. 2 54 year olds move out and 19 49 year olds move in. Ouch!
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Re: USAT Age Group Nationals Psych Sheets [Nonojohn] [ In reply to ]
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Nonojohn wrote:
Are sprints that much less competitive that their assumed winning pace is slower than an Olympic? Or is there another reason?

Besides what's mentioned above about not having to qualify for the sprint and fast guys being tired if they do the double, it is worth noting that the transition times are just as long regardless of race distance. So in the Sprint race transitions make up a larger portion of the total finish time, therefore making it look like athletes went a little slower when they actually might have gone faster.

To the OP, since you seem to have done your research on this (thank you), how do you think this course will compare to Milwaukee in general? Looking at the profile I don't see much reason this would be slower, but I really haven't looked that closely yet.

Powertap / Cycleops / Saris
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Re: USAT Age Group Nationals Psych Sheets [Tulkas] [ In reply to ]
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Tulkas wrote:
Nonojohn wrote:
Are sprints that much less competitive that their assumed winning pace is slower than an Olympic? Or is there another reason?


Besides what's mentioned above about not having to qualify for the sprint and fast guys being tired if they do the double, it is worth noting that the transition times are just as long regardless of race distance. So in the Sprint race transitions make up a larger portion of the total finish time, therefore making it look like athletes went a little slower when they actually might have gone faster.

To the OP, since you seem to have done your research on this (thank you), how do you think this course will compare to Milwaukee in general? Looking at the profile I don't see much reason this would be slower, but I really haven't looked that closely yet.
In regards to the Sprint vs. Oly comptitiveness... the Sprint has some interesting statistics vs. the Oly... my AG is the largest in Oly and the third or 4th in the Sprint... older AGs have larger numbers for the Sprint.

My AG is definitely competitive in both the Oly and Sprint that does have much fewer athletes... I do the Sprint for fun in a reasonably competitive field, I have no interest in racing twice at Worlds, carrying two bikes, etc. I've qualified for both the last couple of years and do the Oly.
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Re: USAT Age Group Nationals Psych Sheets [triryan] [ In reply to ]
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Sweet... How did u get all the data extracted?
Now I have another bar to shoot for.
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Re: USAT Age Group Nationals Psych Sheets [triryan] [ In reply to ]
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I love what you did here. I absolutely do. I actually shared it already with some friends. But after reviewing the document, I'm not sure it's going to work. Tim Hola went 2:03 last year and won his age group. The guy is at the top of his game. He's got results going back to 2009 on USAT. I'm not sure he's going to drop 8 minutes in an Olympic. But other than what you did, I'm not sure what else you could do to rate the winners.
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Re: USAT Age Group Nationals Psych Sheets [GoJohnnyGo] [ In reply to ]
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Wow, I have the absolute lowest single year score in my age group. Granted it was from my first year of doing triathlon (2015) and my current year score is 30+ points higher, so I've definitely improved, and somehow managed to squeak out an Oly qualify. But what a way to make me feel like I have no business being at AGNatls. Psych me out, you surely have, haha lol 8-)
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Re: USAT Age Group Nationals Psych Sheets [DV8R] [ In reply to ]
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Your estimate for me is spot on. Nice work! My new goal? Race faster than you predict to make it wrong :-) Of course, now that I think about it some more that would include racing faster before getting to Nats which will make your estimate faster and now it feels like I'm just chasing my tail faster and faster until I fall on the floor and stare up at the spinning ceiling.
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Re: USAT Age Group Nationals Psych Sheets [Tulkas] [ In reply to ]
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Tulkas wrote:
To the OP, since you seem to have done your research on this (thank you), how do you think this course will compare to Milwaukee in general? Looking at the profile I don't see much reason this would be slower, but I really haven't looked that closely yet.

The wining times in Omaha were around 1:56 and 1:58, and the winning times in Milwaukee were around 1:51 and 1:53. I just picked a winning time in the middle. The course profile looks flatter than Omaha but not sure on accuracy of courses, weather, transition lengths...the run course looks a bit more winding.
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Re: USAT Age Group Nationals Psych Sheets [TriathlonJoe] [ In reply to ]
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There are going to be outliers with how the algorithm works. Hopefully the relative ranking and spacing between athletes within an age group is fairly accurate. I had to guess a winning time to generate the rest of the predicted times, and he just happens to have the highest score with the algorithm I used.


TriathlonJoe wrote:
I love what you did here. I absolutely do. I actually shared it already with some friends. But after reviewing the document, I'm not sure it's going to work. Tim Hola went 2:03 last year and won his age group. The guy is at the top of his game. He's got results going back to 2009 on USAT. I'm not sure he's going to drop 8 minutes in an Olympic. But other than what you did, I'm not sure what else you could do to rate the winners.
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Re: USAT Age Group Nationals Psych Sheets [Mark Lemmon] [ In reply to ]
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Mark Lemmon wrote:
FYI, athletes won't be able to compete at both the Oly and sprint distances next year at Worlds, so that may affect the distribution of talent across both races this year compared to previous years where you could qualify for both.
Why won't one be able to double up, as we have in previous years?

no sponsors | no races | nothing to see here
Last edited by: philly1x: Jul 7, 18 2:42
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