first, let's take the easy part. lockdown measures that you don't like. this has nothing to do with vaccine hesitancy, and undercuts, not underscores, your argument against getting the vaccine. the faster we all absorb immunity, the faster we can get away from the thing that bothers you.

experimental nature of the vaccine. okay. this is better. but i was your crash test dummy, bro. i'm, about to go out on a run. vaccinated. then i'll go swim. vaccinated. i'm free at lass. if you want to wait, because the first 150 million of us need to show you how it's safe, i'm okay with that.

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Dan Empfield
aka Slowman

The main shortfall in data is simply the lack of long term surveillance since the vaccines are only months old. I suspect there's as much or more data available for short term side effects than any other drugs or vaccines in history due to the sheer numbers, focus and funding involved.
The flip flopping I've seen, and you're right, there's been lots, is not about science. It's coming from politicians and public health officials who are worried about public opinion, and the effect the perception of danger could have on vaccine uptake. The general public are not known for their logical use of statistics. They'll react more to your one crying teenager on TV because of an outlier, than the thousands not on TV because the deaths are so commonplace as to no longer be news. So while the science seems to be pretty solid in showing the vaccines are very safe, there is a separate battle there to convince the public of this. If the majority were more mathematically and logically literate, this would be a far easier task and massively flawed conspiracy theories and fake news would not be the threat they are.

If you believe my protest against lockdown measures undercuts my argument, you're missing the point. Do you really think the lockdown measures are going away? When? Under what criteria? When did the post-9/11 infringements on civil liberties get rolled back? Oh, that's right...never. You really think mask-wearing will go away before 2022? ha!

Regarding your n=1 vaccine experience--sorry, I thought you were wanting to engage in a science-based discussion. Like, you know, blood clots. And in a year or two, we can have a science-based discussion about long-term effects.

I did the race in Sebring also. The stats the race director shared with us before the race that virtually everyone had been vaccinated made me very comfortable on race day. The race actually felt pre-covid to me. And it was fantastic.

Oh, the Irony! Vaccine hesitancy and resistance is what is prolonging mask-wearing.

i guess i did miss your point. yes, i think the lockdown measures are going away. i was in st. george last week. the lockdown measures went away. it is, as far as i can tell, about 95 percent business as usual there. almost no masks. within 6 weeks or so we'll be pretty much mostly back to normal in california. and we're coming off of lockdown pretty quickly (even tho 800 people a day are still dying in the U.S.).

regardless, i don't see what this has to do with vaccine hesitancy. the more you write, the more it seems to me your politics informs your decision on the vaccine. the way we progress, in society, is we identify the criteria for expertise. then we know how to identify who are the experts in a field. then we ask ourselves what we want from our experts, but on public health, military campaigns, bridge building, we don't let them make all the policy decisions; we make policy decisions with their input. only the fool makes policy decisions without the input and advice of experts. this is how we progress with training, bike safety, nutrition, race course design, rule of competition, bike design, and in everything we do in triathlon. i don't mind measured skepticism. in fact, i invite it. are you engaging in measured skepticism? are your posts what measured skepticism looks like?

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Dan Empfield
aka Slowman

Turn on the news, restrictions are being lifted every day. They eased mask restrictions just yesterday in Michigan. If we are wearing masks in 2022 it will be because we choose to or because of unfounded vaccine fear.

You are correct that if you want to mingle and do normal things and take the risk of getting and spreading Covid19, then the risk of dying from the virus is worse than the vaccine because we roughly know the odds of both. But if you are islolating, not interacting and also you have zero co morbidities, your risks with Covid19 plummet. Then you're using science to weigh the reward of not getting Covid19 from staying isolated vs the reward of getting to mingle and do normal things by taking the vaccine and your PERSONAL risks of each.

But all of that is at a personal level.

At a public health level it is way better for everyone to get vaccinated and lose single digits of humans in a nation versus lose 1000's via Covid19. There is no question what is the best public health decision. This is proven. The best vaccine for a nation is any one a nation can put in any human and ideally each and every human as soon as possible. If I was in charge of public health this is what I would want because I would prefer to dramatically reduce Covid19 deaths and hospitalizations first and if a few people die along the way from clots this is a trade off I have to make because it is overall better for society.

When I was an officer in the miltiary this was exactly what we trained for. You go to war for the greater good and you execute what is better for the unit and nation and you may need to sacrifice some of your guys be it their physical or mental health and even lose some of them to deaths for the greater good and this could be inclusive of yourself as an officer. That's what you do for the overall mission. Or at least you do that until the mission looks like it will result in a defeat and you resort to beating the retreat. We will not have to beat the retreat with vaccine rollouts. This rollout and mission will absolutely win. If I run public health I want everyone with a needle in the arm, experimental or not.

The best vaccine for me is not a viral vector one (the one I got with higher risk) it is an mRNA vaccine. But it may just be that the best thing for some individuals is just let everyone get Covid19 or get vaccinated and strengthen their personal immune system to deal with it if and when they are exposed.

But if everyone does that, we don't get to the public health goal. But unfortunately for those of us who have gotten vaccinated, many are hesitant. I am only pointing out why they may be so this does not turn religious. We may not like that others are not vaccinating, as this sucks from a public health angle.

I think it is important to understand the line of thinking on each side rather than whitewash entire groups with certain categorizations.

Perhaps with society in the last 14 months, amplified by people being separated and only having discourses via the internet is we have lost our human touch with each other that comes with sitting in a pub, or a cafe or socializing after a race and hearing out the logic from the other side and seeing it coming from another human. Thus, I took my vaccine so I can actually spend time with all kinds of people. Those who agree with me, those who disagree with me. The same person who I can be in complete disagreement on one set of values, I may have 100% alignment on another set.

He didn't claim any "n=1" relevance. He was telling you that being vaccinated provided freedom which you suggest is the goal and he explicitly said large numbers being vaccinated ahead of you should provide additional confidence. n=150000000 was the sample he suggested. 1 and 150000000 are very different numbers. The latter should provide pretty robust data if used correctly. You're attention to detail seems lacking if you propose to contend a scientifically based argument.

Exactly. My first race back after a very short Covid break was in June 2020 under full USAT Covid guidelines. By later in the fall, I noticed those restrictions getting somewhat more lax. At the Intimidator in March 2021 we were back to regular bike rack spacing and lax mask enforcement prior to water entry. At Sebring, I was a little surprised at the lack of masks when setting up your bike in the morning, but like you said, with virtually everyone vaccinated all the athletes seemed quite comfortable. I hope that's a sign of things to come.

How would those individuals know who they are? Do you mean that the risk of getting and dying from Covid-19 infection is known to be less than 1 in a 5 million for some individuals (I believe the risk of death from clots is in that vicinity. If I'm off feel free to correct me.) and thus the risk of going unvaccinated is lower for them as individuals?

I'm not sure the figures support this, but regardless a similar argument could be made in many scenarios where we never get into that. I think this is almost a non-issue (no, not to those individiuals obviously) that has been made seem like a central issue by the slant the media and government have put on it.

I'm not buying your statement. Here's the overall COVID death rate by state as of May 6, 2021.//

My comment was to what is going on right now, and in the past month or so while we are now vaccinating our way out of this. The point where CA became #1 in the nation(ahead of Hawaii and Vermont), and Florida is where now?

But yes, both our states since the beginning have been middle of the road, but the counts are still ringing up, and apparently in many states, will continue to do so even after many have gotten close to almost no more infections. And yes, races are happening here, just saw that the Bass Lake triathlon was full and set for less than a month from now. And many others are taking entry fees, so I presume they either have permission, or plan on getting it real soon.


I believe it is a good time for CA to finally open up, so little transmission going on now, and we are vaccinating towards the top of the % of states getting it done. Not spiking the ball mind you, still a small hole for a variant to squeeze in and reek havoc, like Oregon and a few other states that got surprised in a hurry, but a very small hole is easier to defend...

I think you need to talk to the individual who has no co morbidities and little interaction with the rest of society to let him or her answer their calculated risk reduction from Covid19 (Its not the same for everyone). Then if they weigh that their personal number is lower (whether they are are right or wrong, none of us can decide because we don't know the person behaviours of each human), then they decide if a viral-vector vaccine is worth their personal risk profile.

it is the same as asking someone what their risk of getting hit in a bike crash is. There is national risk, but your personal risk stats may be far higher or far lower depending on where you live, what roads you ride on, what type of bike, your personal bike handling skills etc etc.

My Covid19 death risk is waaaay higher than a clot as soon as I choose to actively interact with society based on case load where I live. As I want to interact with society, that's my risk reward and I took the vaccine while also helping public health. Someone living off the land in his cabin in the middle of nowhere who literally can live without society has a completely different Covid19 risk.

Someone living off the land in his cabin in the middle of nowhere who literally can live without society has a completely different Covid19 risk. //

Ha, you just described our good friend here Steve Hawley. From what I recall of his bout of the virus, nearly killed him, survived, then almost lost his leg, and continues to have some sort of long termer effects. And if you go to The Who has the virus thread, there are plenty of folks that were as careful as you have been, but somehow got the virus. Yes most of the transmission is in the air in close quarters, but the key word is most here. No one says you cannot get it off your cardboard box from Amazon, or the door knob to your house, just that those scenarios are rare in comparison. You and I were careful, but also lucky not to have gotten it. So I don't think you can factor in a 0% risk scenario when weighting the odds against getting the vaccine.

I laid out a bunch of lockdown measures that are completely anti-science. Nobody has rebutted those. Anyone care to? This is not about what I do or do not like...it's about taking measures based on science, that do the least harm to society, and are proportionate to the risk. Western governments have failed on all counts.

Everyone's proud of California openings. What about schools still being closed? That's possibly the most anti-science measure I can imagine. It's literally denying students an education and the ability to think for themselves, all but guaranteeing that they'll grow up to vote for the same anti-science idiots that their parents keep electing.

No, what is prolonging mask-wearing is irrational fear-mongering. Many of us have happily gone about our ways without masks. Those who are worried can wear a FFP2 mask and actually protect themselves and others. The mask-wearing is security theatre meant to assuage the fears of the portion of the public who does not understand science.

Many of us has enjoyed the freedom of running/cycling/swimming for the past 14 months without being vaccinated. We're not afraid because we've followed the science published in respected journals. In those same publications it continues to be investigated whether or not the vaccine presents a risk to young, healthy people.

In the past 5 years, I -- a very healthy middle-aged man -- have been twice knocked out for 3 weeks from the flu (even though I get the flu vax every year), and laid out from Lyme disease for a month. In that same time I've lost four friends (aged 50 to 72) to cancer. I understand health risk, and I understand bad diseases. For now, I'll take my chances with covid until scientists are more confident that the vaccine poses no short or long-term risks.

If I were 65+ or had comorbidities, I'd already be vaccinated. Those people can no do their things safely. Why is it important to you that I can't make my own health choices? Why do you feel the need to coerce me?

I'm sorry you live in such a virtuous bubble. You'd be better off educating yourself with actual science than browsing slowtwitch.

AlwaysCurious wrote:

I laid out a bunch of lockdown measures that are completely anti-science. Nobody has rebutted those. Anyone care to? This is not about what I do or do not like...it's about taking measures based on science, that do the least harm to society, and are proportionate to the risk. Western governments have failed on all counts.

i'm happy to address this. here is your list.

• wearing masks outside -- anti-science
• closing playgrounds -- anti-science
• disinfecting groceries -- anti-science
• believing masks prevent infection of those sharing a room for more than 30-60 minutes (ie an office setting) --anti-science
• keeping children from classrooms -- anti-science
• I could go on...

i think you bring up some good points. i don't think these measures were "anti-science," when they were adopted. they were public health measures taken in a "we don't know" environment. scientists are pretty good at knowing when to say "we don't know." so, kids in classrooms, i think there was a pretty healthy debate among science believers on whether it was a good idea to close classrooms and, if so, to which cohorts?

likewise the rest of your list. masks outside: well, in what setting? cycling? or groups of people all smooshed together, immobile? i don't know. do you? is there a scientific consensus on this? i don't know.

in some cases, pandemic behaviors are made in the absence of a scientific consensus, and unwise decisions result. i don't think we have an absence of scientific consensus on the approved vaccines.

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Dan Empfield
aka Slowman

Just because the numbers are real, doesn't mean you can really use those numbers to justify any ratio.
Are you saying that Florida has a death rate of 0.165% (165 / 100,000). This math, although maybe accurate in its numerator / denominator perspective, doesn't work for me.
Or, is the purpose of the link to do state comparisons? By state comparison perspective, you should factor in the challenges with New York, New Jersey, Michigan, and a few others who had early outbreaks and higher death rates while the novelty of treatments were being vetted.
I'm not sure that state policy can be used when looking at the "14" month history of COVID based on the varying spikes in the data, with those early spikes severely 'injuring' their ratios when looking at them today.

No need to argue over masks or vaccines. What matters most is protect yourself and your loved ones at all cost.
That's it. I've found there's no point trying to convince people how important wearing a mask and getting a vaccine are.
Everyone is different, so I respect their opinion stupid or not.
I just protect myself and my family as much as I can and no one in my family got Covid.

Yes, you are well ahead of Florida on today's positivity rate although we have been dropping fast the last several weeks (knock on wood). As of today, California is #3 behind only Alaska and Kentucky.

https://www.beckershospitalreview.com/...y-rates-july-14.html

Southern California, Torrance school district. Our schools are not closed

I have been teaching in classrooms in California since the end of September. Many of the students in online learning in my district have chosen to not return to the classroom for various reasons, but they all have the opportunity. We recently went from 2 days a week in middle and high schools to 4 days per week for those who chose to be in the classroom, but they also can still attend classes from home if they choose.

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check out my blog http://theswimmingtriathlete.com