Kona isn't a wetsuit swim, so Cam isn't a front pack swimmer. And where were his 3 hour marathon efforts, and what were the bikes like? Him blowing the course record apart is never going to leave his legs ready to run a great marathon, there are trade offs.

Cam did 8:30 last year with a 3:19 marathon... He's going to have to do more than just a 3 hour marathon to be in contention

because weight plays directly into his fitness aka if he's under, over, or just right on the training? I'm sure the riding played into it, but arguing that it's the sole factor is reductionist in my opinion. Jan didn't have a great year last year for his standards, and I think it indicated that there was more at play

I am aware that Kona isn't wetsuit legal, I just said that he is working on his swim sans wetsuit. We will seee in October if he can hang or not but he has a way better chance that Lionel which is what I wrote in my post even though you didn't seem to get that. He ran 3h in Roth, Zurich, Nice and 3:05 in SA and set bike course records in all but SA. You seem to be making the mistake in assuming that he is overbiking which he is not, some athletes are better off pacing that way, same with Björn back in the day, him biking 5 min slower wont make his run 10 min faster.
As I said, if Cam runs 3h and makes front pack he is around 8:0x which is in contention.

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Terrible Tuesday’s Triathlon

Frodo biked a 4:20 last year, more than 5 min back from Sebi and Lionel. It was however 7 min faster than he had biked in Kona before so no doubt he went deep.

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Terrible Tuesday’s Triathlon

Yes he swum quicker but got off bike a minute down on them pretty much. They made that 5 min time difference mainly in bridging to Frodo.

How are you so much more confident that Cam will drop 4 minutes off his swim than Lionel? And how do you know he's not overbiking or hurting his marathon?

And yes, 8:0x is in contention. But if conditions are rough and making other times go up, you can't just assume Cam's times will stay the same regardless.

Well for starters Cam swims front pack with a wetsuit, Lionel doesn't. Well it's easy to look at his results and see that, you can check the days when he has eased off the bike and compare to when he goes hard and there is not difference in his run. You can also look at things like hr and .IF and he isn't an anomaly in any of them.
I am not assuming anything, I am saying there is a possibility of it happening. Also the conditions are likely to play in his advantage, a windy bike would likely give him a better delta to the top runners. Anyway, I am not going to keep arguing about this, seems completely stupid. I have said several times that there is a small possibility that he can podium if he has the perfect race, and I stand by that. If you don't, fine!

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Terrible Tuesday’s Triathlon

No he doesn't swim front pack with a wetsuit. Challenge 70.3 Salou in Spain was wetsuit and he didn't swim front pack or anywhere close.

Because Kona conditions are exactly the same every year.....

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blog

I don't think Frodeno minds a foot-race against Lange these days. That's pretty much exactly what he was aiming for in Frankfurt, before annihilating the Kona champ on the marathon.

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ZONE3 - We Last Longer

He swam front pack in Wales,SA 2017, Arizona 2016 among others

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Terrible Tuesday’s Triathlon

I thought it was common knowledge that Frodo was injured going into Kona last year (back injury). Or have I just gone completely insane?

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Pink? Maybe. Maybe not. You decide.

oh ok...that race. There was no one in Wales - he was the front pack!

Look I have nothing against Cam, he seems a nice guy. He's just not a front pack A list swimmer, or runner.

Well Hoffman, Cunnama, McNamee and a few others were in SA. Either way, I have never said he was a A list swimmer, I said he has a much better chance than Lionel to swim front pack in Kona. I have also never said he was a top runner and it is getting extremely tiring repeating myself.

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Terrible Tuesday’s Triathlon

Exactly. Comparing Kona bike times in relation to effort doesnt make sense. No consistency to it

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Inside The Big Ring: Podcast & Coaching

yes, me too. My Son has raced him so I know exactly what he is capable of.

This post is what got you in trouble........you insinuate that Wurf could potentially go sub 8 in Kona. I'd like to point out 2 things:

1. It hasn't ever been done!
2. Wurf went 8:30 last year.

Now do you see why everyone is calling you out?

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Pink? Maybe. Maybe not. You decide.

On a lighter note, does anyone else find it funny that a thread titled "Lionel Sander....skinny" is the talk of slowtwitch?

I don't think Cam makes the front pack at Kona, but you are wrong about Wales. Harry Wiltshere was there and they came out of the water together. IIRC Harry was FOTW at Kona once, maybe 2015 or 2016 and had an "incident" with Frodeno.

Again, neither Lionel or Cam will make front pack this year IMO, but there's no way Lionel can swim on Harry's feet with a wetsuit like Cam did.

Well yes i believe there are close to a dozen athletes capable of going sub 8 in Kona, where Wurf is probably the least likely, but still not impossible.
Also just comparing his time last year doesn’t quite show the enrire picture, that would be like saying no way Frodo will podium since he went over 9h last year.

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Terrible Tuesday’s Triathlon

And the main topic of the thread is Cam Wurf !! Classic thread derail !!!

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Pink? Maybe. Maybe not. You decide.

On a lighter note, does anyone else find it funny that a thread titled "Lionel Sander....skinny" is the talk of slowtwitch?


I'm just surprised no one has expressed their outrage over the clear case of skinny shaming.

Yes, you are correct. Sorry I’d forgotten about Harry.

Maybe Harry beat and drowned everyone else in the lead back.

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10k - 30:48 / half - 1:06:40

Is it because
Because skinny is not bad. Fat is and everyone knows it but it isn’t PC to say it?