So race 2017 under ITU flag and then move to GB or France to be the odds on favorite to win double gold?

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

What is your question

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Eric Reid AeroFit | Instagram Portfolio
Aerodynamic Retul Bike Fitting

“You are experiencing the criminal coverup of a foreign backed fascist hostile takeover of a mafia shakedown of an authoritarian religious slow motion coup. Persuade people to vote for Democracy.”

Just what I asked, what federation was she going to race for?

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

who?

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Eric Reid AeroFit | Instagram Portfolio
Aerodynamic Retul Bike Fitting

“You are experiencing the criminal coverup of a foreign backed fascist hostile takeover of a mafia shakedown of an authoritarian religious slow motion coup. Persuade people to vote for Democracy.”

No I don't know her contract, do you? And you are talking about what she brought to the table when they first negotiated a contract while I'm talking about if, when and why they may or may not renew it. Has she performed - no? Has she brought value as a social media influencer - I wouldn't think so as even Ashley Horner has almost 4 times as many instagram followers. Maybe there's some other value that would have Nike keep her if she is unable to make the olympic team. And whether you know or not, just give me your logical guess without so much animosity.

I didn’t make comments to suggest I do know her contract, you did lol. You are the one that said she has been a losing proposition for Nike. I simply said from the start to you, to make a more accurate statement is she hasn’t performed, but that doesn’t mean it’s a losing proposition based on other factors. That was my logical conclusion that you keep coming back with some ”performance” only metric.

Your comparing her to Ashley Horner? You should compare her to her own squad mates, that’s a more likely logical assessment.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

Sarah true was Gwen's teammate and almost similar performance. So likely Gwen would have blown up at 140.6 racing too

I thought I saw her on You Tube hanging out with a bunch of ultra runners at Glacier National Park on a weekend outing set up by Jaybird hanging out with Rich Roll, Timothy Olsen and others.. what's that about? Getting into the ultra running scene? Maybe she already is and I just don't know. Or maybe I should listen to the Rich Roll podcast.

Yes, that is my opinion. I reached out to someone who doesn't know her specific contract but who is very familiar with Nike contracts and Nike sponsored olympians. The majority of running contracts are annual and run from January through December. In the case of Gwen who negotiated after her olympic Gold, it is highly probable that she was given a multi-year contract that runs through end of year 2020. Contracts typically include bonuses for making the olympic team and more for medaling, but if Nike is not getting a return on their investment then they will cut the athlete. So the prediction from someone close to the company is this: if she doesn't make the team she's gone at the end of her contract, most likely the end of 2020 (unless perhaps she fails to make the team but pops a great marathon next fall). If she makes the team even if she doesn't medal, then they are likely to keep her, but upon contract renewal would probably convert to an annual basis with renewals contingent on progress towards the marathon. That is still speculation, but I would consider it a highly informed opinion.

In the final analysis, Nike is all about the bottom line. For most of their contracts, that means performance. They will pay for social media influence but I don't see any evidence that she brings much to the table on that front. Her current contract was based on her Gold medal and the hope that she could produce as a runner. To that effect, sticking with the marathon for 2020 would have been a certain path to no contract renewal. She wisely switched targets and at least now has a chance to continue with Nike. It's up to her, but my opinion remains that she must perform or they will dump her at the end of whatever contract she has.

Of course there are differing opinions of what the future will bring for Gwen. But if athletic performance is not at the top of the list, I don't think her future will be with Nike.

you have absolutely no basis to be making that statement and it directly contradicts your previous sentence.

Just so I'm understanding you. You say you don't see any evidence of her having social media appeal or influence. Your basis this opinion on what exactly?

I ask because that is the opposite of what I've heard from companies that have directly approached her with large sponsorship packages. That she has the athletic performance background + social media presence that most defintely gets any company eyeballs.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

No it does not. Most does not mean all. Nike is willing to give high profile athletes a longer contract. They are higher risk to the company but with the potential for higher return on that investment. She was in her strongest bargaining position immediately after the Rio olympics, so it is fair to surmise that she received a multi year contract rather than an annual one that most track athletes get.

you wrote "highly probable" but what you really should have written is "I am guessing and have no idea." it is not fair to surmise that she signed a multi-year Nike contract. maybe she did, maybe she didn't, but you have absolutely no idea what she signed and even admit that most Nike contracts are annual ones.

she was a rounding error for Nike in 2017 and still is just a rounding error. you are delusional if you think anyone with any clout at Nike even thinks about her when their focus is on their Lebron, Durant and Greek Freak contacts, which generate Billions (that's with a B) of dollars of revenue.

There are two parts to this. The first is whether she had an effective media presence for triathlon (I don't know), who benefited from it at the time and whether Nike believed it could be transferred to them at the time they negotiated her current contract. And going back three years, which was more important in evaluating potential return at that time -- her gold medal or her triathlon social media? I hope we can agree that it was probably the gold medal.

The second part is whether her CURRENT social media presence is noticeably driving sales and making up for her lack of performance. Here I have no objective evidence other than her paltry numbers. There is also anecdotal evidence that her youtube videos can be offputting (see Lets Run). Perhaps you have some evidence that she is producing sales value for Nike, but I haven't seen any. In the end I don't believe her social media will be enough for Nike to keep her if she doesn't make the olympics. There is nothing outrageous about that prediction. And a competitor like Gwen certainly wants to make the team. Only time will tell how this will play out.

"just the facts" on the social media aspect of all of this for women's Nike BTC members:

Flanagan (who's now retired and turned into a coach): 356k IG followers, 128k Twitter followers
Amy Cragg: 37k IG followers, 24k twitter followers (BTC member for 4+ years and made 2016 Olympic team)
Kate Grace: 45k IG followers, 13k twitter followers (BTC member for 2+ years)
Marielle Hall: 7k IG followers, (cant find her on twitter after quick search) (BTC member for 2+ years)
shelby houlihan: 43k IG followers, 11k twitter followers (BTC member for 4+ years and made 2016 Olympic team)
Colleen Quigley: 168k IG followers, 15k twitter followers (BTC member for 4+ years and made 2016 Olympic team)
Emily Infeld: 65k IG followers, 17k twitter followers (BTC member for 6+ years and made 2016 Olympic team)
Courtney Frerichs: 43k IG followers, 11k twitter followers (unsure of when she started w/ BTC)
Vanessa Fraser: 13k IG followers, 418 twitter followers (BTC member for 1+ year immediately out of NCAA)
Karissa Schweizer: 33k IG followers, 7k twitter followers (BTC member for 1+ year immediately out of NCAA)


GJ: 183k IG followers, 45k twitter followers . (2nd biggest social media footprint on the team behind only Flanagan)


Take those numbers and come up to whatever conclusion you want to make. I have no evidence (I dont work for Nike, nor am I apart of her "team") other than the "paltry" numbers that make up her social media presence to suggest that she has a social media influence within the running/endurance community. I also never said that her social media presence alone will have her stay. I've simply suggested she's still going to be on team BTC post Tokyo whether she's on the Olympic team or not. That's my "outrageous" prediction to counter your non outrageous prediction and what your "insider" has suggested. ***With the caveat that she doesn't get another injury......if that happens, yes I think she's fired/let go/contract not renewed/retires, but if she's "developing" and healthy and racing, I think she is on the squad Jan 1 2021 regardless of making Tokyo team or not. ***

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

Considering how many shitty messes Nike as a company has on their hands. Keeping an All American, Wholesome, Family Oriented Gold Medalist on the roster would be my first priority. In fact, she gets a raise.

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Washed up footy player turned Triathlete.

you are comparing one niche sport to another niche sport, both of which are rounding errors to nike and don't drive any sales. compare these numbers to, say, the ny knicks bench tonight:

smith jr: 882K IG
knox: 318K IG
portis: 130K IG
trier: 235K IG
payton: 131K IG
dotson: 46K IG
ellington: 72K IG
robinson: 127K IG

these are the scrubs on one of the worst nba teams and their followers dwarf BTC's (rj barrett, who has been in the nba on the knicks for a month, has 1.4 MILLION IG followers). nike isn't selling any product because of the spikes or training shoes anyone on BTC wears and nobody (relatively) is paying attention to any of them anyway. enjoy following triathlon and track for what they are but don't have any delusions that they are popular outside of a very niche following, which includes all of us on slowtwitch.

Hello

I appreciate her, and expect she will be able to come back as a serious marathon competitor after Tokyo (probably too short, but maybe for NYC Marathon in 2020 ?)

I'm not a competent runner / coach, but I doubt she will do the marathon trials in Feb 2020. She is/was quite late in her marathon schedule for Feb (reason to go for Track selections), so either :
- she chase both, for sure miss the marathon selection, and lower her chances for the Track selection
- she concentrate on track selection, and what is the point to do the marathons trials in Feb ?

I agree. As a coach or athlete there is no upside to doing marathon trials, but as a running and also GJ fan who is going to Atlanta, I hope she does the marathon!

E

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Eric Reid AeroFit | Instagram Portfolio
Aerodynamic Retul Bike Fitting

“You are experiencing the criminal coverup of a foreign backed fascist hostile takeover of a mafia shakedown of an authoritarian religious slow motion coup. Persuade people to vote for Democracy.”

You can take that to the bank. She's not even on the published roster for Atlanta.

Considering how many shitty messes Nike as a company has on their hands. Keeping an All American, Wholesome, Family Oriented Gold Medalist on the roster would be my first priority. In fact, she gets a raise. //

Finally, someone who gets what the dynamic is over there, the current reality so to speak. And it is not just one incident, there have been many over the past couple years concerning women at Nike, they certainly will be cognicant of that fact when evaluating women contracts in the near future. There are lots of women runners in the basket that Gwen resides, but only she is a past gold medal winner, with a potential that is probably a bit more unknown than the journeymen runners on the program.


I dont know what she gets, probably only a few people actually know the exact number, but have to imagine in the low 6 figures. I would also think with her history, she would be high on the list not to get cut, at least for awhile longer than the others in her basket. But probably most women are safe for the time being, have to be doing really bad to get cut in this enviourmet where they are trying to portray the opposite in regards to women and sports..

Yes, my conclusion is that those numbers are so pitifully low that they will all live or die based on their performance. When Nike wants social media influence they do it big. Aka hiring Christiano Ronaldo whose combined social media followers total 240 MILLION or by their hiring of Colin Kaepernich and their ad campaign: “Believe in something. Even if it means sacrificing everything.”


We do have different predictions. Mine basically assumes that Nike will not go for the long run if she doesn't produce this year. Yours is that if she is still progressing then they are willing to go the distance (so to speak). That's fair. If she makes the olympics, we'll never know what Nike would do otherwise. Let's hope for that.

Your post and the Ronaldo bit should center people and remind them about exactly how much money power and influence we're talking about here. OTOH, I would disagree that it's comparable to Gwen re: number of followers or a pass/fail proposition on the track. I would argue that as long as Gwen shows value relative to her contract, she will remain. There are more ways to influence these days other than performance. Gwen and her team strike me as the types of people that know exactly how much value they're providing and probably know how that scales on a $$/influence basis to other athletes' contracts.

If the ROI is good with Gwen, they would keep her no? It's win/win really... all they do is give her money and shoes and she does all the work.

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Eric Reid AeroFit | Instagram Portfolio
Aerodynamic Retul Bike Fitting

“You are experiencing the criminal coverup of a foreign backed fascist hostile takeover of a mafia shakedown of an authoritarian religious slow motion coup. Persuade people to vote for Democracy.”

I wonder if she had stuck with tri if financially better off. She was dominating and could have been picking up good prize money and sponsor $$ . her love must be running.

Could she have been better off financially, maybe. Guess her priority wasn't more money. Good for her to chase a dream and challenge herself in a new way. She probably doesn't regret it either.