I actually think there is less pressure now. This is actually the correct pathway to “long term” success in whatever pathway she actually wants to pursue. It was obvious marathon training was destroying her. But that’s the demands of competition and the requirements necessary to “win 2020 Olympic marathon” that she was so pushing towards.

I’m sure there’s financial incentives but my guess is that nike and her coach are all in on her long term. She’s by all accounts a good “squad mate” in terms of supporting everyone else and not being an issue. So there’s not a lot to lose from Nike or her coach for supporting her (even if she loses some money from Nike or whatever she’s a smart and well sponsored athlete). Even if she’s only an good practice partner for her other teammates that’s value to keep her around.

So I think now the pressure is completely off and now it’s just GJ and athletics....not this fake bullshit “goal”.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

You may be right. My thinking is that Nike can be ruthless at cutting athletes who are no longer performing at a high level. Her Olympic Gold value is pretty much depreciated at this point, and the Olympic 10K holds much lower prestige than the marathon. If she doesn't make the team, I can't imagine they would continue to pay her going rate just because she's a good squad mate and training partner. And while this gives her more time to ramp for an eventual olympic marathon attempt, I simply don't think she has the right body type for it. But she is better suited for the track and that alone should ease the pressure (as does buying some more time). We'll see what happens after June.

If you want to do anything long term in track too, you need to be running in Europe a good portion of the year. That's not the case in the marathon.

It's the right move, but certainly has trade offs.

Ten years from now, will Jorgensen regret that she announced the 2020 marathon gold goal in 2017 or will it end up having been an announcement that earned her more $ than it cost her?

She needs to run 31:25 to get the standard. That will be a big, uphill challenge. //

Not sure what you think this, just have to go back to her very first 5k track race. Undertrained, under raced, with little experience, she won a tactical race in the final lap in 15;15. By any metric used to extrapolate, that is a 31;30 or so 10k. And figuring Gwen to be better as the distance goes up from 5k to probably 1/2 marathon, she was right there already. He job now is to just get back to that form she had in the very beginning, and figure out what worked back then..

No not in the least. That was the necessary step she needed to take to continue her athletic career. She wasn’t going to go down itu anymore so that was the sponsored kick to keep on the sponsor train. And for her it’s a very lucrative sponsorship, no doubt.

So to Huff, while yes Nike can be ruthless, my point is there’s a bunch of Nike supported athletes that won’t make the olympics. And I certainly don’t think she’s Nike “queen bee” by any means. So do I think her nike sponsorship is on the line. Hell no.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

She has Track PRs of 15:15 at the 5k and 31:55 for the 10k, both accomplished in 2018. Her 5k track time would have been the 10th fastest time for women
in 2019 while the 10k would have been 5th fastest.

U.S 5k Olympic standard - 15:10

U.S 10k Olympic standard - 31:25

In the past the top 3 at U.S Olympic Trials who have met the standard times would have been sent to the games. Qualifying this year is more complicated as the standards were dropped back in March of this year. According to the IAAF there will be allotment of slots to athletes based on running these qualifying times. Then the remaining slots needed to fill each events quota will be given based on an individual athletes World Ranking.

If we were to take the times in 2019 for the women's 5k and 10k, six athletes would have met the standard in the 5k but only two would have ran fast enough to meet the standard for the 10k. That's where the World Ranking comes into play.

My opinion is that even though the women's 5k is stacked, Gwen might have a slightly better shot at that. She'll have 6 months to build up her speed and she's only 5 sec. off rather than 30 in the 10k for that standard. Although, I expect that her chances for these events will level out if she stays healthy and is able to have solid blocks of training.

https://www.flipsnack.com/...lists/full-view.html

https://www.outsideonline.com/...ew-standards-running

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Dominic Pollizzi

I'm guessing it's likely a correct assessment to say it's a big uphill challenge based on where she's currently at fitness/injury wise + experience. What she did previously is decently good gauge, but your also dealing with a compressed schedule for an athlete coming off a major injury. That's the whole issue. Which I think is pretty much the whole reason why she's coming to this pathway so she can:

a- likely run less mileage and stay more healthy (she's used to higher intensity, lesser volume with her itu career, etc)
b- race more often and learn more / gain experience


Her 15:15 5k before her 10k in 2018, she then ran 31:55 10k (current PR) a few months later.

Summer of 2018 at the USATF 10k track champs she ran 32:24 (7th place)



USA Track qualification standards:
5k- 15:20
10k- 32:25

Olympic qualification criteria standards:
5k- 15:10
10k- 31:25

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

I feel guilty for saying this but I hope she comes to Ironman. She’s such an amazing personality, I’d love to see her take a crack at Kona.

You sound like a know-it-all with this.

It's easy to lob criticism in hindsight, but shortly before she started the marathon quest and not long after her Olympic Gold she ran 53:10 and placed 3rd in American 10 mile championships, just a few seconds behind Jordan Hasay. Easy now to say it's obvious that GJ would flare out and be a marathon failure while Hasay would rapidly become the 2nd fastest American marathoner ever with the fastest ever debut by 3+ minutes. Didn't seem like such a "unrealistic dream" at the time though.

It's easy to lob criticism in hindsight, //

It's not hindsight, its what I said way back when. And I thought then as I do now, that she could be a very good marathon runner. Predicting a gold medal however was a bit much, don't you think, now or back then too? My feeling way back when she ran her very first 5k, was that she should have taken the shorter distance route and stuck with it. I was hopeful for a good marathon time, but something or someone screwed her up on that track. The times she ran for the marathons were the absolute worst I would have expected of her, felt she could have run those or better times during her triathlon training. Really dont know what went wrong there, but something certainly did. I'm with you though, think she could run any distance successfully with the right team working with her.


So not really criticism of her, just my observations, before all of this came to pass. Maybe she needs her Tri coach back, it just doesnt feel like whoever is guiding her, understands her as an athlete.

Maybe she needs her Tri coach back, it just doesnt feel like whoever is guiding her, understands her as an athlete.

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I'd turn it around and maybe suggest she didn't understand the marathon game with her expectations/timeline. That probaly has hella lot more to do with it than what the coach was or wasnt doing for her.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

You can turn it however you want, but those marathon times were just bad, and not a reflection of the athlete and racer she was, at that time..I get all your other stuff, rushed, over ambitious, a dreamer. But at the very worst, she should have run a 2;30 low, and that would have been off of triathlon fitness. It all just didnt add up, 15;15 5k/ high 31 10k, and then those horrible marathon times. But as you say, still a long ways off the brass ring, but that should have been the minimum for her in the attempt..

Of course the goal was too lofty, I'm just pointing out that on the way to reaching for those heights, it was apparent that something had gone awry.

and not a reflection of the athlete and racer she was, at that time

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Exactly and that was my point that you didn't get. You don't go from low volume, high intensity ITU style training to marathon training in less than a 2 year window and not have ups and downs. Add in the fact that in marathon running you dont get a 2nd chance. You gotta wait 4--6 months to recover and build back up and then give it another go. She was going to have less than a handful of chances at "nailing" the marathon before the Olympics??

So the reason why I think she's changing now doesn't have anything to do with the marathon. It's the timeline of everything in that marathon trials or what mid Jan (Feb 29th marathon trials vs track trials in June 19 for 10km...5km looks to have heats starting on June 25)? And she's coming off a major injury that likely wont have her anywhere close to being ready. So change the chatter and see if she can make the team in 7 months from now instead of 2. Cus post olympics it really doesn't matter too much what pathway she choses, she then has time to pursue it.


(and keep in mind that injury can occur in low volume runners....it's a common long term over use type of injury that occurs with post D1 professional runners/triathletes.....Rupp had the injury and surgery just prior to GJ having the issue....my itu girl (her bf who runs professionally at the 1500/5k had the injury) got the injury...sorta just happens to many of them with running for so long (she simply retired as she wanted no part in the recovery process nor wasn't really good enough to actually have a comeback so simply "retired" and got a job with her degree).

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

Nike can be, but she runs for Jerry/BTC, Jerry owns the decisions on who stays and who goes.

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808 > NYC > PDX > YVR
2024 Races: Taupo

she is not made for the marathon yet... 10k or 5k in track, sounds rational. I think she is better suited for the 10k, but who knows...
I think she´s moved a bit late. She´s got half a year to build top fitness and gain speed, and, focus in being in the olympics....because there is no chance for even a top 5 in neither of those events. Kenya, Ethiopia, Hassan, etc....no way
Being in Tokyo would be a huge accomplishment for her...no further dreams.... given the competition there is in Team USA.
I really like her, and I hope she can do it....
what´s the pick procedure for team usa? I have checking some PBs and she would need like a 31 flat for the 10k and 15 flat for the 5k...

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Spaniard. Sorry for my english for the sensitive ones :P

Without seeing her actual contract, I am only speculating, as I suspect you are. But what I do know is this:

1) Most running contracts at Nike are tied to the Olympics, and there will be wholesale turnover after the Olympic Trials for those that don't make the team.
2) Gwen has been a losing proposition for Nike. Her 15 minutes of fame was three years ago and she has had no performances in that time to justify her stipend. It's all been a bet hoping for a pay-off that still appears to be in the distant future. If she doesn't make the team in the 10K, it will be very difficult to make a business case that justifies keeping her.
3) As I insinuated above regarding "her going rate"; if she doesn't make the team and Nike keeps her, it doesn't mean that she will be getting the same stipend. They could very well slash it; and unless she has a better offer, or wants to go back to the office, she would take it.

This used to be a simple question. Before Tokyo, I would have answered that it would have been a straight-up top 3 performance at the U.S. Olympics Track and Field Meet assuming that all runners met the Olympic A standard. There is no selection committee and if our best athlete has a bad day, then tough luck. So you get one shot at.

The new Olympic standards and procedures are much stricter since the IOC is reducing the size of the Olympic T&F competition to make more room in the Olympic village for sports more attractive to younger viewers (e.g., skateboarding and surfing) --- it's all about the money!!!

The new standards means that even large countries no longer have a guarantee of top 3. Women have to meet the new Olympic standard of 31:25 for the 10,000 but even if Gwen comes in top 3 in the trials, and beats the standard, that still doesn't guarantee her selection because the Olympic 10,000 is now limited to 27 men and 27 women. Theoretically, they won't reach 27 under the new standard and will offer the remaining spots to those with world rankings (which Gwen does not have). The qualifying period to meet the Olympic standard is Jun 29, 2020, the day after the US T&F trials ends. So if she makes the top 3 but misses the cut-off time, there is no real opportunity to regroup and try again.

If you don't know her contract it's kinda hard to take your #2 serious. Because this isn't 1988 where it's all about performing and getting into running magazines or on the pages of sports illustrated because your winning. The more accurate statement is that she's not had performances, that's it. Because your speculating seems to be only tied to performances, and in this day and age I'd argue that there's more to GJ when it comes to "business" (and she's a very very smart and likely shrewd business woman).

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

Good to make that disclaimer.

Something I wonder, if Gwen had continued with Triathlon and gone double Gold in Tokyo (in other words, won the MTR Gold too, bringing her total Golds to 3) could she have made 7 figures for a few years, joined the speakers bureau and created enough cache to be a permanently sponsored athlete like other Olympic Champions?

She was totally fried on triathlon in 2016. Taking two years off from everything, coming back in the summer of 2018 refreshed may have been the better financial decision.

this is the first rational thought I've read on this forum about Gwen Jorgensen since Rio 2016. Chapeau

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Eric Reid AeroFit | Instagram Portfolio
Aerodynamic Retul Bike Fitting

“You are experiencing the criminal coverup of a foreign backed fascist hostile takeover of a mafia shakedown of an authoritarian religious slow motion coup. Persuade people to vote for Democracy.”

Think she can still swim front pack and not get dropped on the bike? It's never too late to pull a Carol Montgomery.

I don't see what is so hard to understand that Nike is looking for publicity value in its sponsorship, and that is directly tied to performance. That's why their running contracts are typically linked to the Olympics. I completely agree with you that Gwen is smart and likely a shrewd business woman, but I'm alluding to Nike's value proposition not hers. Nike isn't in the habit of sponsoring athletes out of charity. Can you honestly say they've gotten bang for their buck from what she has run, and from all the time that she's been out for injury?

It's clear you don't know her contract, and it's even more clear you only see value from one pathway- performance. So why don't you stick to that and not make bold statements when you don't know the value she brings from the social media side. ETA: Stick to the facts that you know, not assumptions, cus that one based on what you keep talking about shows you don't comprehend the value she can bring to Nike publicly outside of races. And that is of value since seemingly about 2015-2017 when "social media influencers" really became a big thing. And not to say that's all she has, but to say she has the "total package" likely when she went into negotiations with Nike. Not sure how it's that hard to understand that?

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

I don't know. The rational thing, to continue the theme, would have been to ask that question in 2017, not now. I'm rooting for her though! And I hope she still does marathon trials...

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Eric Reid AeroFit | Instagram Portfolio
Aerodynamic Retul Bike Fitting

“You are experiencing the criminal coverup of a foreign backed fascist hostile takeover of a mafia shakedown of an authoritarian religious slow motion coup. Persuade people to vote for Democracy.”