Keep in mind itu is a very particular sub segment of the sport and this thread is made up of basically the same dozen or so people who yes watch the sport, support it, and have some basic understanding of it at minimum.//

Of course, but I had always put Jackets into the category of someone who does watch the races, and he usually has a very specific take on them. Just seemed out of place that he didn't know that Luis was one of the top swimmers in the sport, took me by surprise. I enjoy bantering with those "dozen" or so, even if our takes differ from time to time. I apologize Jackets for my tone in my response to you, caught me up at a stressful moment in my day...


So I know different course coming up in Abu Dhabi, but does Luis with the help of a couple others now, go for an elite break on the bike again? It of course has less chance to actually work on easier courses, but they kind of have to go for it anyway, dont they? With his run back it is very dangerous to give him even 15 or 20 seconds. That time with the Kenyans in the mountains with no outside distractions, seemed to have paid some dividends. He seemed in control the entire run, and appeared to have plenty in the tank for any last lap surges. And from past super league sprint finishes, he seems to have that piece of the puzzle too, so perhaps a Yee, Wilde, Blu, sprint finish??

I am not sure Luis will have that big a gap after the swim. The bigger the field the longer it takes to break up in the swim. Also, there will be a much stronger chase pack to close it down.

I would expect him to be in the mix for top 8 but it is going to be a packed final with a lot to fight for including top 3.

Unless mechanicals spoil the fun I hope it is going to be a close race down to the wire.

Luis actually could act as the perfect domestique in Abu Dhabi for Bergere (and by proxy the front group). He's already said he's likely there to help him win a world title, so I think they may have a little extra fire power, cus Luis could DNF or likely still finish top 20 after burning all his matches. Which is a smart af move by Luis. Help a teammate and friend win a world title less than 2 years before Paris, that would be huge 'mo for that federation and athletes (hell even showcase his "elder statesman" move of the peloton, take some pressure off himself going into Paris, etc). Even if that all fails and the groups merge, he's shown the form to run just fine.

In regards to how it'll all shake out. If this truly is likely going to come down to a run race, which I think we all agree it will, I just can't see a scenario with Blu medaling, hell if he finishes top 5 I'll be amazed/shocked. I just dont see how he'll have the foot speed in a world title race field that will basically be an run race, even if the chase group starts 10-20s back (I dont see how the front group can manage a big gap, if a gap at all). There's just too many good runners to account for, that for Blu to have his LC racing in his legs at this point in the year, I just can't see it happening. I mean I get it, Blu is an easy name to call and he is the reigning champion, and everyone wants to point to him and Iden as showcasing that "specialization" is now out the window, but when all the best SC athletes meet in Abu Dhabi, I just dont see how he's going to have the run speed to match it. And by all means, just being in the conversation is incredible enough. But if we are going to talk about sprint finishes, etc I got 5 guys before even mentioning Blu. But again the fact that he's there in the conversation is amazing, I've just been on the island that the more he stays in LC prior to Paris, it's going to hurt his chances there. I'm perfectly fine to hang on that island alone. And they've mentioned they won't do LC next year, but then they've already mentioned they'll probaly be there again next year. I just think it's going to take away from medal winning ability.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

Wilde adds a different dynamic to the bike whenever he races. He’s probably one of the most aggressive cyclists and can close down gaps pretty quick sometimes which makes make it more likely for the chase pack to catch any break

Luis actually could act as the perfect domestique in Abu Dhabi for Bergere //

This actually works real well into Luis's overall game plan. Yes he could work somewhat for his teammate, but it also suits his own ambitions for the race. Drill the swim again, stretch out the field, and then work a nice smooth break on the front. No need really to blow himself up, he will be a better domestic if he stays in control, and takes it further into the race. I can see a scenario where they are running together, him setting pace, and seeing what is coming from behind. IF no one super close, keep breaking wind in the run. If there is a charge, then step it up and see if Bergere can hang, if not, then you are free to fly.


I believe this is some misunderstanding of what happened last week with some folks. I forgot your stance, but many are thinking that Yee was off. From how the race played out, I think he was fine, just was handed a race that stressed him and others out to their limits. That back group had to just annihilate the swim to just stay within 45 seconds, on the rivet the either way. Then they got on the bike and the pressure was put on immediately, and all the favorites were on the front mounting as hard a chase as they could. It worked out for the Spaniards, got to sit in and unleash some great runs, while all the guys working the front, had just so so runs for them.


I dont see 2nd and 3rd as some breakthrough, just taking advantage of the real favorites having to work super hard just to stay in the race. Yes there will be more firepower in the chase, but there should also be some more in the front break too, with the likes of Hauser and a few others. And they all know the tactic now, seen it work, and a huge incentive to just make that back group work harder. Take the top end of the run out of the runners, and a small T@ gap could prove to be very selective.


I just dont see Luis sacrificing such a big race and going all in on the bike to help a teammate though. He can help quite well to just race his race, and be insurance for France just in case Leo is off that day..

It’s not a big race for Luis though in comparison to his countryman and teammate racing for a world title. It’s a bit of chess vs checkers type of move, which is why I said; having an fellow country win a world title helps everyone. Which is why he said he and the French team will do what they can to help him. So if he’s doing that based on his own comments post Bermuda race, I would think he’s going to atleast give it a go on the swim + bike. Luis I don’t think has the run yet to go with those guys on that type of “run race” with what likely isn’t a very taxing course. It’s going to turn into a drag race not really a strength burning matches that was Bermuda. So if he actually domestics he’ll do it on S/B, and let the boys have at it on the run. I think he recognizes he’s prob not ready for that level just yet. But as I said I think he can go full domestique mode and still likely finish top 20.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

Well I didn’t have a huge interest in watching the race in Abudabi

That was until reading the posts on this thread

Now I can’t wait. Anyway to watch it live?

Subscribe to Triathlonlive for something like $26. per year. It’s a real bargain even for a cheap skate like me.
You can look at any of the older ITU races as well as watch live events.

Hugh

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Genetics load the gun, lifestyle pulls the trigger.

Wow that’s is a bargain

Thanks!!

Oops, I just checked and it’s gone up to $36.99 per year but still well worth it for a real fan of the sport.

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Genetics load the gun, lifestyle pulls the trigger.

I saw that

No worries

And MUCH better than the $11/month

That is the best value in the sport. All those seasons of racing!

Also, I know we all miss Barry, but I’m much healthier now. I would take a sip of lite beer every time he said “literally” and would usually have a BAC of .5 by the end of the bike leg.

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Aaron Bales
Lansing Triathlon Team

I love being fringe Dirty Dozen. Hopefully not the Telly Savalas character though.

Does Knibb catch Flora without Kingma? I still think Flora wins, but I wonder how that plays out differently.

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Aaron Bales
Lansing Triathlon Team

Yee has got a hell of a lot going on outside of Tri and tbh I am surprised he had the strength to race. He has also been ill so I don’t think he was off, I think that was probably the best he could do on that day.

He needs to control that aggression! By his own admission he caused the crash in Leeds which put Brownlee out for months and Yee out for weeks.

At the final race in KSA the other day he seemed to elbow someone out of the transition area resulting in a nasty fall over the barriers.

I suspect that GTB will be glued to Flora and those two plus perhaps Coldwell will be hammering full out from the gun. I expect when Knibb comes through the group they will turn themselves inside out to hold her wheel and without a Flora Duffy Hill to dislodge them some will be towed along. Will they take time out of the front group? What ever the case, the pace will be fast and furious through the whole affair.

Both the men's and women's races should prove to be oh so exciting from start to finish the way a season finale ought to be.

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Genetics load the gun, lifestyle pulls the trigger.

I’d give you the Donald Sutherland tag. One of the interesting things about Bermuda was the swim (and I still haven’t watched it….damn time change screwed up when I tuned in). Knibb’s post race comment seemed to suggest she was there and at 200m mark and then she lost them. Abu Dhabi should be non wetsuit so she needs to figure out how to hold front pack feet, though I don’t think the swim has much chance to be “choppy” like Bermuda was.

I guess she can likely string out the group but I think enough can hold on that it’s not a 2-3 person group only. But maybe she does truly have another Yoko style break on a truly flat course, I just wonder if her swim isn’t exactly front pack, the gals will be ready to catch her wheel and with an course like it is, I think it’s an select group but not an small small group.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

I suspect with GTB and Yee in the hunt to be WC that GB Tri will be looking to Coldwell and Brownlee to play domestique roles.

Absolutely! They'll bury themselves on the bike to help their countryman.

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Genetics load the gun, lifestyle pulls the trigger.

I think GTB is superior to Flora nowadays. The only chance I see for Flora is a breakaway on the bike but I have no idea about the course.
Does anyone know what is up with Jess Learmonth? She has not race yet this year. And I really hope Spivey can make a top 2 at once, she is always in the edge.

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Spaniard. Sorry for my english for the sensitive ones :P

I have this theory (developed from personal experience):

You can swim fast with DPS or with high turnover. The DPS swimmers (Chase McQueen comes to mind most prominently on this) are the ones who get will "unexpectedly" not perform well in choppy water.

Coldwell might as it suits her ambitions as well. But JB will not domestique for AY. Not a chance.

Yeh I have a feeling too that something has to give with the whole SC/LC yo yoing. Even OAB said that they shouldn't be getting away with it and SC and LC should be quite separate. I remember SK disagreeing with this strongly.

I think in a runners race KB is probably not gonna podium just now, but will probably be close. GI won't be close to be honest. Happy to be proven wrong though.

On HW, is it just me or is he a bit of a dirty racer?I've noticed in quite a few Superleagues some shit I don't think you'd get away with in a standard ITU race.

Finally one factor on the bike that could present itself is the wind. Looking at the course I think it is quite exposed. Something to factor in to what is on paper a pretty benign course.

GTB is probably a slightly better runner at this point than Duffy. But it’s not by much. Fitness and race dynamics will make it way more of a toss up between those two. Knibb is still a huge wildcard in my mind. She has pretty much always had way more bike power than her competitors. (There was that one time when she was quite a bit younger when she was only just as good as Duffy, but since then she’s gotten stronger). Sometimes she can ride the field off her wheel and a few times she has tried a real attack to drop people. But she has so many head scratchers. For instance in Bermuda she can’t keep up with Spivey and Potter as they bridge to the main group. Then (by herself) she closes up to within 3 bike lengths of that pack at the top of the hill, only to loose a bunch of time on the downhill/town section, only to then catch and destroy them a few laps later on the same section. All this just really feels like Remco 2 years ago so maybe by next year she is going to be winning worlds. Anyway I think it’s a race between GTB and Duffy for the win and Potter and Beaugrand will have to wait and see how Knibb behaves to find out if they have a podium shot or not.

Agreed! There's no love lost there.