I am looking forward to watching the race. I am not an expert but many predict this scenario

Lucy will come first out of the water, probably with Lauren Brandon. I would expect Chura, Oliveira, Clarke,and Fenella 1.30m behind. Then another group 4-5m behind with Daniella, Anne, Norden, Crowley and True. Laura Phillip, Skye and Sodaro will be 6-7m behind
Daniella will push the throttle after 100k and will pass Lucy. Norden will probably go with her but I expect Daniella alone in T2 with LCB and Norden 5m back. Phillip will risk and I think will get to T2 along with Skye, around 7-8m later. Haug 10 to 12m lost in T2. And then, I dont know...I said Ryf, Phillip, Haug for the podium....

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Spaniard. Sorry for my english for the sensitive ones :P

agree mostly, although i'm not sure about swim times.

my feeling with ryf is that usually about 1/2 to 2/3rds through the bike we'll know exactly what's happening with her. if she hits 150k riding faster than cam wurf, that's it - the race for first is finished. but if she hasn't moved up by then, something is wrong and she won't move up all day.

i think maybe norden is slightly over-rated as a triathlon cyclist, sometimes, but i don't know how she'll go at kona. she went well at st. george but not fast enough to gap the field or to bridge up to daniela. but i think she's a great athlete and could be 'due' for a big day.

also curious to see if the dynamics on the bike are different with fewer age-groupers around the pro women!

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https://lshtm.academia.edu/MikeCallaghan

http://howtobeswiss.blogspot.ch/

For all the problems of the 2 day event - dilution of quality, price gouging, volunteer numbers etc - one of the main advantages will be tonight's coverage. It will be fully focussed on the FPRO race so we'll be able to really see things unfold and it will be easier to keep a handle across all the top 10 or so and gauge movements etc.

I'm looking forward to it, and really hope we get a worthy race for the W and not a Ryf walkover from mile 75 of the bike.

Daniela's going home disappointed.

I really hope this is the case and not just the typical IM coverage where we get 4 hours of watching the side-on shot of the lead rider with the occasional update on the chase pack.

I think that going into T2 Daniela will have it wrapped up per usual. Her gap into the uber runners will be substantial, and Ryf is no slouch running.

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“The answer is hard work. What are you doing on Christmas Eve? Are you riding your bike? January 1st – are you riding your bike?”- Lance Armstrong

good point! would especially like to see more on the race dynamics and see who's moving up from the back of the field. hopefully they're able to spread the cameras wider and get us more of a sense of the back-and-forth.

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https://lshtm.academia.edu/MikeCallaghan

http://howtobeswiss.blogspot.ch/

curious to hear how you think it's going to play out. nipped in a footrace? beat on the swim/bike? beats herself by showing up sick or something?

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https://lshtm.academia.edu/MikeCallaghan

http://howtobeswiss.blogspot.ch/

Daniela Ryf has been running a lot in high altitude, completely ripped and she’s in best shape ever. She’s going to be untouchable today. Fast runner Anne Haug is possibly second and third place will be up for grab for the rest.

Watching from near Noosa on the east coast of Oz tonight...Starts at 3:30am and I am going to feel like shit tomorrow.

And it's 7:35 AM at Slowtwitch's official race coverage writer (I have spotters on site).

Unless Daniela gets eaten by a shark or wakes up sick, I don't see how she doesn't dominate. She feels more like Thanos than anybody in the men's race. Inevitable.

Now, in terms of race dynamics -- it will have an impact, IMO, on how LCB, Sarah True, and some of the other bikers go for the race. If they attempt to hang with Daniela or minimize the gap, they might be able to build enough of a lead on some of the uber runners (a la Macca) to neutralize them.

It's gonna be a pretty fast day, from what I can tell -- wind out of the West, 7-10 MPH, not incredibly hot.

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Editor-in-Chief, Slowtwitch.com | Twitter

Just sleep in get up early at 530, fast forward a bit in the FB feed the first 30 minutes and enjoy another 6 hours of coverage!

Eu is the crap place for this ends right in th e.middle of the night.

Chura might be in the 1st group out of the water. She is a great swimmer. Daniela will dominate the bike and run strong for the win.

I think she’ll show up with her A game, so no, sickness wont be the reason. I think the competition will be strong on each of swim, bike, run with the eventual winner will running her down and taking the lead later in the run.

I don’t think Ryf will be that far back on the swim. She’s improved a lot over the years. Ryf for the win unless has a mechanical. I think Lucy will be really fresh because of her injury and have a surprisingly good day.

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Let food be thy medicine...

Was it TOD what 3 years ago didn’t run prior to Kona for like 3 months dealing w an foot issue and podiumed.

Sometimes saving it for race day can work out.

To no one in particular:

For the broadcast, remind the techno challenged idiots (me) how / where to watch again?

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

Apart from Charles none of the off-the-front swimmers are likely to be there 6 hours later so, on form, the main contenders will be together in a happy pack of their own. Then it'll be a 'duathlon' with Ryf (assumed the fastest
rider and Haug the fastest runner, and Philipp, Norden and Moench in between). The untested (in a contested full distance since her 4th at Kona in 2019) is Philipp. She successfully (legally) sucked Ryf's wheel in Dubai
for 2+ hours. For 4:30+ cycling, doubtful, not least because Ryf must catch Charles and generate a decent gap at T2 on Philipp, and a bigger one on Haug.

Mentioning only those likely to finish top 10, I think the swim is going to mimic St George the aberration being Charles off the front, then a few swimmers Langridge, Norden in between, and then the contenders in small groups but led by Ryf, with True, Crowley, Philipp, Haug, McCauley, Moench (debutante), plus Nielsen, maybe Sodaro.
Once caught, Norden could not stick with Ryf in May, and won't be able to today. Norden's aim, maybe with Langridge but likely not, will be to have as big a gap as possible on Philipp, Moench and Haug come T2 (because she'll not run better than 3:10.
In '19 Charles' average bike meant Haug could close with her. I don't think she will here: Charles is a way better cyclist than then (see St George Sep '21) and Haug's bike is weaker (lost 15 mins to Ryf in May, 6 mins to Ryf at the Collins Cup). Ryf gained 7 mins on Matthews in May. If Charles can ride better than Matthews then she will be close to or ahead of Ryf in T2.

And if Charles had run a marathon since her London 2:48 in Oct '19, then I think they would be evenly matched on the run. But she hasn't and if she tries to race faster than 3 hour pace, there is considerable risk: deduction: Ryf will catch up / pull away. Philipp will lead the chase but she will be in a sandwich with Haug on her tail. I think Philipp will catch Charles but Haug will not. So disappointed not to have Matthews in that front fight.
So agree the 123 of @juanillo !! Plenty of competition for places 5-10: all to play for. Sodaro, True and Moench in the mix for top USAnian: my bet would be Moench - who has a sub-3 run. So disappointed not to have Matthews in that front fight. Astle to work her way up after her T1 deficit.

I fervently hope that the Kona motos will be proactively controlled and disciplined to minimise drafting advantage (please Zero view of Charles and Ryf from the front except Looong telephoto), and that we get coverage of the 'movers' in the field and not disproportionate coverage by the side of the lead biker. I expect the split days will mean a better coverage of each race and twice the air time will 'force' the director to reach down to the chasing groups and lone riders, directing moto cameras accordingly. We need to see Philipp and Haug and how far back they are on the way back from Hawi/Kawaihae. Remember both have a sub 2:50 PB so on the run let's hear from Dede how quick they are closing (seconds per km/mile).

Seems to work for me (no card required!!)

Peacock is carrying it live as well, for those who have.

First time back on these forums in a while - what is the easiest way to watch this race and are there any options besides FB?

Also is there any triathlon stats website yet where we can go to see results of all athletes in various races as well as rankings? I’m thinking something like Procyclingstats for those who follow cycling, or any basic sport stats page. So far I’ve been using the IM tracker app and going race by race to page through pro results one at a time which is very tedious.

is this new octo-box setup new? if it works, looks good.

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“The answer is hard work. What are you doing on Christmas Eve? Are you riding your bike? January 1st – are you riding your bike?”- Lance Armstrong

Nick2413 wrote:

Also is there any triathlon stats website yet where we can go to see results of all athletes in various races as well as rankings?

https://www.trirating.com/

as trackers go, i think ObsTri is the way forward:

https://www.obstri.com/live

and i think it's actually going to be broadcast on youtube?

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____________________________________
https://lshtm.academia.edu/MikeCallaghan

http://howtobeswiss.blogspot.ch/

See post above ref link for live watch. Thorsten's site is trirating, but the PTO site (Thorsten has a hand in that too) is probably better (even great) for what you want, and also offer's head-to-head comparisons, on demand:
https://stats.protriathletes.org/rankings/women