Well, South Korea's got one land border, and it's the most heavily militarized land border in the world, so it's functionally an island for these purposes.

Their government did do an outstanding job of setting up testing and tracing that was key to their success.

I live in FL - I keep hearing we’re some crazy place living on the ragged edge. It’s all media... I don’t think anything bad is happening.

From the link you provided FL is bottom half of death per capita and cases per capita. And isn't FL filled with old people who would be more susceptible?

By the sound of the internet we should all be wiped out by our “carelessness”. And I’m not saying this isn’t a disease that doesn’t demand respect. The data just seems to show FL has given it that respect.

I checked my county and cases continue to drop. As with the state while the US cases are increasing (data thru weather channel app).

I’m glad we’re racing here. It’s not unsafe.

Dude, with all due respect, it not just the media. I’ve been in Miami for work less than 10 days ago, and it was 2019. (I am fully vaccinated, BTW) Not a single mask spotted... ANYWHERE.

And like I said, if you think it is safe to behave like that, FL numbers are dropping, and elders are the most vulnerable population, please go right ahead and do so. Maybe I’ll see you at a race in 2021 and you can tell me how wrong I was. (Hopefully that’s the case)

In the meantime, stay as safe as you choose to be.

Cheers.

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Follow me on IG: @Commandersnake

Interesting. I was in Miami for work last week, Aventura specifically, staying at the JW Turnberry and I had observations that were quite a bit different. I’m not going to weigh in with my opinion on this one way or the other, but statements like “not a single mask spotted” that more than likely are not even remotely close to true don’t help you with whatever point you’re trying to prove, just like your all inclusive statements about Texas are not true, as I’ve had to go there twice in the last quarter (San Antonio and Odessa - yes, west Texas) and experienced quite a bit different than what you’re indicating.

For the record, I also don’t believe the virus is the flu, but your arguments against are pretty poor.

I have to ask the obvious.; how were you even able to get around what with stepping over all of the dead bodies laying around everywhere you went?

This topic really isn't that difficult. If you have hard opinions regarding masks and feel strongly that they are effective in protecting you, than ABSOLUTELY YES, you should wear a mask whenever you feel it's warranted and will make you more safe. That's the great thing about our country, you have every right to do that. But it's not the government's place to MANDATE wearing a mask. It's really that simple.

Trust me, just like I can’t out swim, out bike, or out run him... I can’t out asshole Dan Stubleski.

Clearly, you can.

To believe that is sign of ignorance on the issue. To post that on a social media board is stupidity.

Race is cancelled. Variety of reasons. First Memorial Hermann cant sponsor or support a mass event race during the pandemic. Two Harris County is a hot spot and the edict from Governor Abbott was delivered poorly and has created much controversy on the appropriate social behavoirs which need to continue at the present time when only 11% of the population has been fully vaccinated and the seven day rolling death rate in the US remains above 1200 people. Racing is a celebration of fitness and while many of us are frustrated with the lack of such venues over the last year, those of us which are able to still train should celebrate in our fitness which has been spared the disabilities conferred on many by COVID-19. As a physician I am saddened by the expectation and fear that another bad wave is on its way and fearful that new strains may bridge the gap and affect the portion of the population which has seemingly remained unaffected to the present time. This is a time to be more vigilant and careful. We are all burned out from the last year and anxious for change. But you cant force change. I think we got adequate lead time for notification and was actually expecting the event to get cancelled at the last minute because the timing of the event i believe will correspond to when numbers of cases and deaths will begin to start to climb again. I hope I am wrong.

Anyone actually get emailed on this? I haven’t seen anything.

Really screwed up that I wouldn’t know about this cancellation without Slowtwitch. Never saw the FB post scrolling my news feed. Have to imagine many are still training with no idea.

Yes, I received an email Tuesday evening. From what I have seen on various Facebook pages, it seems that you are not alone and that many others did not receive an email. It's another shining example of IM's communication and customer service.

":come and take it" refers to a cannon at the 1835 Battle of Gonzales. not the Alamo.

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cock-up before conspiracy

I'm sure I don't have to point out to you what kind of fool you sound like when you make arguments like comparing this to being illegal to drive intoxicated. There is no lack of consensus regarding the ills of impaired driving. When you try to make arguments like this, it completely erodes any remote credibility you may have had. Bad form, really.

GZ, with all due respect, you're a physician and this is your take; if I show you 100 physicians who have a completely different take (and that would be quite easy), what makes your take any more valid or well-founded than any of theirs?

The lack of consensus in the scientific community is the issue here. As a licensed professional Engineer working in science, if you can't provide me with a clear consensus regarding the efficacy of masks, distancing, etc (now apparently 3-ft may be sufficient instead of 6?), how are you going to convince 330 million Americans to give up so many of their rights and personal freedoms for a theory? I'm old enough to remember when we were trying to "flatten the curve". Viruses are going to virus. They always have, they always will.

I have no issue with masks. Where them if you feel it puts you at significantly lower risk. If you're in one of the significantly higher risk demographics, by all means, you should be taking every precaution available. That is 100% the way you should go.

It's not that hard. As soon as you can show a clear, definitive consensus among all the experts, and make concrete guarantees regarding what these mandates are supposed to accomplish, I will jump in line, 100%. Until then,. .....

Driving drunk is VERY relevant because people who choose not to wear masks are blatantly ignoring the fact that mask wearing is to protect others, much like not allowing drunk driving is about protecting others from an individual's bad life choices.

Since this is the current Coronavirus debate thread, I thought I would share a very cool visualization I saw in a recent study. (I cannot find that study, so I just recreated it from available data.) This shows that the states are generally converging in Deaths/1M, regardless of how they were known for their venue and social restrictions. The implication of that study was that maybe our interventions did not do as much as we thought. (They had short-term impacts, but not sustainable long-term impacts.)

Check it out... these are the top 10 US States by population. NY and PA are really bad, and probably no one will overtake them. They are outliers-- NY and the surrounding NE states are the worst in the country by a pretty substantial margin. On the other end, NC is killing it. They either did some things amazingly right, or there were other factors. This tends to support the recent cliché that "virus gonna virus."



* Data came from Wikipedia because of ease of access
* It looks like Ohio had a substantial correction in their data mid-February

Interesting chart. There are other factors, including:
1) NY and PA got the virus earlier than NC and other states and before there was a clear understanding of what works and doesn't work in mitigation and when there were shortages of PPE
2) NY and eastern PA are more urban than some of the other states, i.e. more density in living arrangements and easier transmission
3) Florida and other states used knowledge from NY hospital experiences to reduce their own death rate
4) The states report data differently

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Andrew Inkpen

Respectfully, you should not engage engage these people. Essentially they're either trolling people, so engaging is a waste of time and what they want, or (as you already put it) they're absolute morons who don't get it after a whole year of it being explained and half a million deaths, in which case you're just wasting your time and engaging them is what they want.

Great observations above.

@AndrewPhx, yes, the northeast got this early and knew the least. So they got hammered and others learned from them. That is why they are an outlier and probably will remain so. But, it is still interesting to observe in this that all the states appear to be converging on "their number" and those numbers are very similar. States reporting differently is not a material factor in death counts.

@NaV, I am guessing you do not have a statistical background based on your comments here and elsewhere. I recreated this from a study in which the authors used it to illustrate a lot of other information. It is extremely useful in the context of that study and drives deeper analysis. Yes, TX will probably overtake NY in total deaths; CA already did. What's your point? Those two states have a lot more people. Death per capita is the best comparative metric that you can use between states. TX is 24th in the country in deaths per capita. California is 31st. NY is 2nd behind NJ.

Science is curious... analyses like these should lead science-minded people to ask questions and dig further. If you hold fast into old thinking, you are not being scientific.

October is a much better time frame for holding this race, IMO, though the inaugural May 2011 running remains my favorite of those I've done.

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#cureMS

I'm with you. It's pointless to debate with these people that don't get it either by conviction or deep ignorance and to try will leave you only frustration. Same as debating with those guys that believe the earth is flat (yeah! believe it, today in 2021 there's a loooot of people that believe earth is "flat", stupidity has not limits), but the huge difference is that you can just ignore a flat-earther and life goes on for everyone, but you can't ignore the "covid-is-only-a-flu" guy that you find in a gas station or supermarket acting as nothing is happening.

Very informative chart, but likely a waste of time. If it doesn't fit the popular narrative, it will be immediately and summarily dismissed.

Welcome to 2021; we've reached a point where merely pointing out inconsistencies in the data and a lack of scientific consensus is branded as hate speech, ignorant, and trolling. Differing opinions will not be tolerated and immediately subject to being shouted down, being ostracized and beaten into submission.

Agreed. I know it’s mostly a pointless endeavor but I was bored.

Dan has done a lot to ruin his own reputation in the last year without our help.

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Favorite Gear: Dimond | Cadex | Desoto Sport | Hoka One One

I appreciate exxxviii's use of data, which certainly beats anecdote, even if I think the chart is a bit misleading. Below is a list of the 20 states with the highest number of cases per capita. With a few exceptions, most of them are among the least densely populated states in the country. Rhode Island is the most notable exception, as it is the most dense after NJ. Most also were not part of the initial spring 2020 surge when both governments and society did not really know what measures to take. The other common feature, that most are GOP-controlled, is also worth noting.

1 North Dakota
2 South Dakota
3 Rhode Island
4 Utah
5 Iowa
6 Tennessee
7 Arizona
8 Oklahoma
9 Arkansas
10 Nebraska
11 South Carolina
12 Alabama
13 Kansas
14 Mississippi
15 Indiana
16 Idaho
17 Wisconsin
18 Georgia
19 Nevada
20 Montana

United States Coronavirus: 30,301,478 Cases and 550,761 Deaths - Worldometer (worldometers.info)

Thanks. Although the statistics on COVID are sobering, I would have told you that it was safe to race at any of the half-dozen races I did in Florida in 2020. I've already raced a couple of times in 2021 and just returned from several days at St Pete Beach. I saw lots of masks at restaurants (in compliance with private business rules) and at my hotel (again in compliance with private rules). Outside on the beach was a different story; maybe 1 in 100 wearing a mask, but that's where I expected to see zero. I've yet to see any peer-reviewed, double blind research that shows a high risk of transmissivity in outdoor activities. Even the Superbowl did not result in a spike that so many claimed would happen.


To the contrary, you would think that since the CDC recently found that 78% of people hospitalized for COVID where obese, that public policy would focus heavily on campaigns for Americans to get outside and exercise. By contrast, Japan and South Korea have the lowest obesity rates in the world according to OECD data. That, not mask compliance, MIGHT be the driving factor between differing outcomes in the U.S. and those frequently cited countries. Either way, it's funny to hear someone from NY with its abysmal death rate and ongoing exodus dissing on TX and FL.


I hope to get my first vaccine shot before the end of the month, but fully expect that COVID will become an endemic, but hopefully less lethal disease over time. Since it is unlikely to ever go away, people will have to decide on how they will live with it. While I cannot speak to Harris County, TX, and I feel badly for the athletes who've trained for it, I do think Florida has struck the right balance. I have never appreciated living here more than I have in the past year.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/08/covid-cdc-study-finds-roughly-78percent-of-people-hospitalized-were-overweight-or-obese.html

Dan has ALWAYS been gruff and abrasive. If you're only now seeing it because of his posted thoughts regarding Covid 19, then you haven't been paying attention.

He is more than welcome to his opinion regardless of whether others agree with it. The great thing is you can just ... not pay attention.