I know what they are saying, and what I'm saying it that it is bullshit. A 4;20 for Lance is not easy, especially when you factor in a tough 2 1/2 mile swim first.. ANd 2;30 in Hawaii would not be easy for Geb either. If he were even able to make the cutoff times of the swim and bike, it would be work for him.. Look at what the Kenyan runner did at Silverman, and he only had to do a relay run. Starting in the middle of the day, in the heat of the day, and having no one to pace off, is not as easy as folks seem to think. This guy was a 2;11 marathoner, and he went about 2;40 there on his own, and screwing his pacing..I commented at the time after the fact, that this guy probably runs 6 flat pace for his 2 hour+ runs, but he could not manage even workout pace in that unfamiliar venue..I think people hav sited examples of very good runners doing hawaii, and not coming even close to their PR times, different animal. To put it in perspective, Geb would have to run within 25 minutes of his PR for a 2;30, a time gap we have discovered is reserved for the best trained athletes who pace well. I do not think that would be him...

Granted that Lance will not be as taxed as a Geb would be if he had to do 6 hours of work in the heat prior to starting your marathon, but it will not be nothing to him. Everyone pays some price for what they do in Hawaii prior to the run, just a matter of how much?

"There are 1000's of stories of people that leave their runs on the bike course, either due to going to hard, or screwing up their nutrition. It happens every year, to pros and AG'ers alike."

i did, i got so focus on hammering the bike even with 50 mph wind, that i forgot to eat.

Lance is very meticulous about is training, he also has money to buy the best coaches, but i am not sure he can time trial 112 miles, and then run a sub 3 marathon.

and yes the heat is against him, but i do understand that he is a excellent swimmer, but he is 39 also.

i think it will be fun to watch,

Hey Nick, Colin Dignum's 1997 IMC "record" run split is a bit of a joke in the sense that a 5:36 bike split in the context of a pro is not really even a pro bike split....it's more like "well, you may has well have just shown up to run the marathon fresh"

Here are the splits from sportstats

15 Colin G Dignum West Vancouv CAN 25 09:15:52 Pro Men 13/36 30 248 1:00:49 1:37 29 229 5:36:17 20.0 1 1 2:38:47 6:04

25 minutes off a 2:11 is WAYYY different than 25 minutes off a 2:46, so it's not a valid comparison ---- it's actually 19% vs. 15% variation frpm open marathon. Understandably, some of the above mentioned runners were closer to 2:25, but for an elite marathoner an 18-20 minute gap is probably more realistic.

I have nothing to add about LA ...

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You never have the wind with you - either it is against you or you're having a good day. ~Daniel Behrman

Lance is a 19 months older than Macca...and he seemed to do pretty well recently.

They're both doing Puerto Rico 70.3 in March (rumored).

I wont doubt a man that kicked cancer's ass, won 7 consecutive TdF's and has had many kids after ball cancer. Of course schizophrenia seems to be pretty likely in his world nowadays with his pelota alter ego.

He did that on purpose because he wanted to break the record for the fastest Ironman Marathon.Pretty much the only reason that he raced Ironman that year.When he passed me just before the run turn I thought he must be on a team.Running shorts,hairly legs and the bugger took 50 mins out of me in around 14 miles. Poor guy was so trashed that he fell over twice in the finish chute with less than 50meters to go.

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Everybody is assuming that a couple marathons he ran, just for sh#t and giggles, while partying and weighing about 184 is as fast as hem can run!

He was able to run sub 15 for a 5k at 16, but you will say that was years ago. That's right, he has only been the greatest endurance athlete on earth during this running " layoff".

All of you think that the 3 hour barrier is this magic # at Kona. There are 3 amateurs on the Timex team with full-time jobs that run under 3:05 year after year.

This forum is full of lance haters, but give the guy a little credit for his athletic ability, especially since an early age, he has constantly backed up everything that has been said about him.

The scariest thing is, he is excited and enjoying the Tri training! That will be the biggest wildcard.

sub 15 for a 5k? Where? Also, I think there are a few more endurance athletes that could have fought for the title as "World's Greatest" Haile Gebrselassie being among them. BTW I'm a huge Lance Armstrong fan, but I don't think he's going to do as well as people think. He's not 16 anymore and he's not the athlete he was 10 yrs ago.

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Chris

Take a look at Dave Scott.. after a 5 yr break he came back..
The same Dave Scott Lance beat a few times in his short tri career.

After retiring in 1989, Dave Scott came out of 'retirement' in 1994 at age 40 to take second place at the Hawaii Ironman World Championships

Where? Come over and I will show you the scrapbook with news paper clippings. I will try to find the time to scan some. On 3 mile cross country courses he regualry broke 15 min. in high school.

Do I hope he wins, sure, it would be great. Do i think he will win, no, but he will be super competitive and do much better than most people think.

Just look at history. Like the poster above said, Larsen had every PRO shaking in his boots until mile 17, and lance actually has a tri/running/swimming background, AND is a better cyclist.

This getting beat by women and amateurs is nonsense if, and that is an IF he takes this serious.

You do realize that if Lance broke 15 minutes for a 5k at age 16 he would've probably been the fastest 16 yr old in the country. I'm not buying it. He just wasn't that fast. Now if you say he broke 16 minutes I'd buy that. 15? No way.

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Chris

Take a look at Dave Scott.. after a 5 yr break he came back..
The same Dave Scott Lance beat a few times in his short tri career. \\

Hate to break it to you, but a lot of people beat Dave Scott in short races, myself included. It means nothing when it comes to Hawaii. Just to put it in perspective, only 3 people ever beat Dave in Hawaii if you count his masters race that you mentioned, Mark Allen, Greg Welch, and Scott Tinley.

If you push that out to the last time he raced hawaii at age 42, you can include a few more hackers who beat him, Luc Van Lierde, Thomas Hellriegel, and Peter Reid. By the way, the fastest year ever at Hawaii that year..

We are talking about Hawaii here, a completely different animal from most other long races, and certainly different from some 1 hour race Lance did when he was 17...

in maccas eyes lance is racing chrissie not him ;-)

Not a Lance fan. At all. But I think the Larsen comparison is a good one. Steve was super competitive at Kona, and he wasn't nearly the athlete Lance is.

I don't think he wins, but I wouldn't call it a ridiculous possibility. Top 10 is well within his reach.

And if he comes close, expect to see him return a few times. Look at how he responded to the loss at Leadville. The dude is somewhat sociopathic in his competitiveness.

I'm gonna see Macca on Sunday and get his take......

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I'm faster in Kilometers!
Wattie Ink Triathlon Team
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Well that's the fun and intrigue of it all. We have no clue whether he's gonna show up and dominate, blow, or somewhere in between. There is a lot of time to banter about it, which is great for the sport. He's one of the few people that can bring significant interest to triathlon from the general public. :)

My opinion.. he will give much respect to the sport and its elite athletes, and will train his arse off. Not at all what he did with running in recent years (ie. partying, way overweight, minimal training, basically a publicity stunt). Given his triathlon/swimming history and recent TDF performance, which people seem to minimize, if he's truly serious I believe he's capable of a very high finish, say top 10.

But there are so many variables, not least of which the investigation that could derail this whole thing. Banter on!

As much as I hate Lance posts, oddly, I still feel compelled to chime in.

I would rather he did not compete based on all the drugs issues surrounding his career.

However, am I curious how he will do? Absolutely. It's kinda like a fight breaking out...you know you should not watch but you do anyways.

My opinion (not that it means anything), mid 50's on the swim is the best he could hope for. I think people will be surprised when he does not dominate the bike as many expect. He is likely not training like a TDF contender anymore and if he does goes faster than the bike record, it will be by a few minutes at most. He may not finish the run without walking. No way in hell he will run under 3'10'. All this is best case scenario. As we all know, the worst case scenario happens more often than not in Hawaii.

Let's not downplay how many years of experience and training it takes to get to the level of the top IM pro's nowadays. Not only is their training well honed and consistent over many years, but they have often gone to lengths to change their somatotype to match the demands of the race.

Sorry Lance fan's...he may be very good, but he is no god.

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Adrian in Vancouver

Top 10 within his reach? I've got $1000 that says there's no way he'd do it. The point most seem to forget is this: at this time, he's not a triathlete. What he did 20+ years ago is irrelevant. I'd even bet that he wouldn't even have the fastest bike split in Kona.

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Chris

Well do you think he's likely to be better than Steve Larsen was? Larsen was 9th at Kona. And demolished the field on the bike.

I guess I'd like for somebody to explain why they think Lance (who was 10 times the professional cyclist that Larsen was) can't match that. Do you think the fields are deeper now? Think Larsen was more suited to triathlon? Think Larsen worked harder?

Agains, I'm not that concerned with his under-20 triathlon resume, I just see the following: Steve Larsen was a journeyman pro cyclist that picked up Ironman and went 9th at Kona despite having pretty bad swim and run skills. Lance was a much better pro cyclist who seems to have better run and swim skills, so why wouldn't he be able to top what Larsen did?

Have a look at Larsen's body type. He was light and lean - seemed well suited for IM. I don't think Lance will do as well as SL did. Not sure how you can say Lance is a better runner.

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Adrian in Vancouver

Additionally, Larsen was 12 minutes faster than Stadler, who had the fastest splits the previous year and then 2003-4-6 by a ways. Lance has to be better equipped than Larsen for the bike, and probably more efficient swimmer. The run is a toss up, but to say he won't have the best bike split...rather questionable thinking right?

I don't have all the answers but, it will be interesting for sure

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DFRU - Detta Family Racing Unit...the kids like it and we all get out and after it...gotta keep the fam involved!

I totally agreee swith sluglas here... I wouldnt say the body type is a disadvantage - in fact I'd say Lance's body type is not dissimilar to that of Chris Mccormack. Classic mesomorph athlete that can put on muscle weight pretty easily. Steve Larsen was an ectomorph, super lean and lanky. Obviously both types can succeed at triathlon, put Andreas Raelert and Macca side by side...

The question was: can someone of his caliber comeback after such a long layoff. My point is that Dave did it after a 5 yr layoff and finished 2nd.

Some could argue that to be in the TDF is far more strenuous than a 8 hr event. The "tour" is 27 stages of 8 hr days..
So its not like lance is starting from day one again. His engine is there, he just needs to refine it..
Do I think he can win it.. most likely not, But to count him out altogether I think is a professional mistake that may come back to bite some unsuspecting Pros.

Did Dave really have any "layoff's"? From my understanding, he never stopped training hard.

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Adrian in Vancouver

Layoff.. is a broad term when dealing with athletes..
Technically neither has lance..