I think he'll do better than most think he will. He has put more deposits in the fitness bank than probably anybody else. He is fiercely competitive and excels when things get tough. There are few athletes on earth that can push themselves and teeter on the edge as well as he does. As far as his swim goes, anything that you used to do a lot of in the past, you pick right up again later on... 100 times easier than starting as a newby.

If Boston is so slow, why is the course record 2:05:52? Boston is a fair course and it not 10 minutes slower than a race like Chicago, maybe 1-3 minutes, I will give you 4 minutes at most for a 2:50 guy.

Just let him in, dont take a spot from the 80 qualifying pros, and dont make any lame excuses of why you let him in. We all know why, it is good for everyone!!!

I agree 100%. Lance wasn't a contestant on the bachelor or the biggest loser, he is a world class athlete and IM doesn't have to explain why they're letting him in, just do it.

Sorry, I just assumed he wanted to be competitive with the Pros. I think Carmichael has said as much. I think there is an outside chance at a top 10 if he gets his running in shape, which doesn't seem impossible.

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Dimond Bikes Superfan

I wish this were true, for my sake, but it most definitely is not. I think 3 minutes is a generous handicap for the Boston course.

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Dimond Bikes Superfan

Lance can neither swim nor run; it's all bike, bike, bike: http://www.hulu.com/...ve-celebrity-ironman

Well I'll try to go see him swim one day and let you know!! I don't know what pool he swims at, I have a couple of guesses though. I bet he goes 53 minutes. Maybe faster if he get the right feet depending on where he starts and how many tris he does beforehand.

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Brandon Marsh - Website | @BrandonMarshTX | RokaSports | 1stEndurance | ATC Bikeshop |

If you listened to the Lance camp when this whole "Lance to Kona in 2011" news broke, everyone had dreams of Lance actually competing in this race. (Maybe it was all a big bluff, but this is LANCE) Of course that was in the spring before Lance's whole world/racing career kinda hit the wall with bad luck/crashes/getting called out into all kinds of investigations.

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@brooksdoughtie
USAT-L2,Y&J; USAC-L2
http://www.aomultisport.com

I think its likely he can still be competitive. Thats of course why he's doing it now, before age takes anything more away. He's the type who wants to win whatever he can, while he can. He just announced he's doing the Dirty Du in Texas to see if he can beat his own course record.

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You don't have to like what I say but you should respect my right to say them and I'll do the same to you.

I always thought at some point Lance is going to crack, and just say "Fuck it all to hell" with people riding his coattails on "can he win/be competitive/save the sport/get eyeballs to the sport/WTC". Maybe Kona 2011 is his last big hooray event that he goes for (not counting a Leadville or an "other" type event), but I have a feeling at some point Lance is just going to throw his hands up and say "I just want to have fun with it".

Maybe even he himself has not hit that point, but I just see Lance at some point just wanting it to be done, and not worry about if he will get chicked or top 40 overall or whatever. Just show up for a race (whether trained/under trained) and just race to do it for fun/lifestyle.

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@brooksdoughtie
USAT-L2,Y&J; USAC-L2
http://www.aomultisport.com

I think he will get there, and I think he's having fun with the triathlon, hence the Juan Pelota thing. He's going to be serious on the race course, but its the same way he approaches Leadville and other events. do it to raise awareness, do it to compete, but have fun along the way. No one expects him to win marathons just be competitive. Maybe he can win Kona. I sorta doubt it, but I love the idea he's gonna try. Will be interesting to see what races he takes on.

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You don't have to like what I say but you should respect my right to say them and I'll do the same to you.

I think for someone like Lance it is fun to see how fast you can go. I am really interested in how he will come back to triathlon. I agree that he has a lot banked in the fitness bank. I also agree he is super competitive but I also am a realist and don't think he can contend for anything other than an age group crown. he certainly has more of a background than Udo Bolt and Jalabert. I think the only ones with any type of background was larsen although much younger but also was not a balanced attacvk. chann Mc Crae raced tri with lance when they were young and i think he was around the 9 hour mark. Lance will probably be the more balanced athlete(of those comng from one sport) to attempt this. That run is the thing that prevnts him from winning an ironman. That 2:40 marathon is not enough to do it off the bike.

Depends on the conditions. If it's a fast day, I have no problem believing he could go sub 55. A slow day, sub 57 or so. You'd think that holding sub 1.30's would be a breeze, given that he has a year to build up.

If you can swim, you can swim. The ability is always there. How long it takes him to get back to a good level - that is the question. The first time I saw a coach & attended a formal training session for swimming, I was about 27, and within 6 months, my times were pretty fast (for a triathlete).
Fast forward 10 years, and I now swim about 4 months per year (leading up to summer (AUS) Sep/Oct to Feb. I have started back swimming once a week since September & was bloody slow (18 mins for 1 k). In the past three weeks, I have done two to three sessions a week - my 1k time has dropped by 90 seconds. I am still not fast, but the point is, the technique is still ok, even if the power sucks (and believe me, it sucks).

The guy will not shirk training, so barring injuries, give Lance a year, and he will be fast.

I consider Susan Lipscomb (Johnson maiden name I believe) one of my closest friends. She swam in the Seoul Olympics, took 2 years off, came back and won NCAA as a breast stroker. Then took 13 or so years off and then started training for tris.

She routinely comes out of the water 1st.

Once a high caliber athlete, always a high caliber athlete.

Of course, Susan is a stud. I was a mediocre cross country runner in college, took 13 or so years off and still haven't seen the 10k times I saw in college.

I'm guessing Lance is more like Susan.

I think it's much easier to get in the right group in the pro wave I've done both (not at Kona). Age group wave you are lucky to get in the right group. But it's not huge difference, but all my pro starts were a min or 2 faster. Plus Lance would get mobbed if he started in the Age Group wave. Every Tom, Dick and Mary would try to line up next to him.

MC

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http://www.mctriguy.blogspot.com

I think Lance is an awesome athlete and hope to see what he can do in a 70.3 prior.

Until then I am holding the "it's disrespectful to the current crop of pros to put lance even top chick at Kona" line.

I think it's much easier to get in the right group in the pro wave I've done both (not at Kona). Age group wave you are lucky to get in the right group\\

I think this is because Kona is a special circumstance that you do not see at other races. First of all there are no wetsuits, and 2nd, it is the one race where there are more fast swimmers in the AG wave than in the pro wave. The pro wave is fast, but often the AG one is just as fast, if not faster. All other races you do you will not find this is the case. There is of course a larger crowd in the AG wave, but that really does not matter as most are behind you after 90 seconds, and you will have all you can eat no matter how hard you go out.

But you are right in that the start could be tough for a bit in the AG wave, just depends on whether he has trained his 400 speed to cope with the ridicolus starts there in hawaii...The newer smaller pro wave will sort out quickly now, but then you run the risk of getting caught in a gap. That will be the difference between a 160 athletes and 80. Smaller, more distinct groups, not the longer lines that go on for minutes...

he specified 25-meters today for you monty.

"4x100 free, 400 free, 3x100 free, 300 free, 2x100 free, 200 free, 1x100, 1x100. All on 1:30 base. 25mt pool."

Wow. He's out of the water with all the contenders, no doubt.

I'm calling it---he wins Kona if he can run a 3hr marathon.

So after a pretty much 15 year layoff of swimming, what can he get back to??

I'm going to post here since it might be my only chance I ever get to compare myself to Lance with a straight face;-)

I swam as a kid and, based on the times I've seen, I was a little faster than LA was in the pool. I did not swim for over 20 years then at 45 years old decided to do a HIM. My swim training consisted of 6 months of doing 2000 yd workouts 2 or 3 times a week. I had no trouble doing a :31 min HIM split. So, I conclude Lance can go under :60 for an IM swim if he just shows up at a pool a couple times a week for 45 minutes. (doing a few Tours in the years off from swimming instead of watching TV and putting on 35 pounds has to be good for a few minutes on the swim). It appears he is training in the pool much more than that. So, my hunch is that if he does do an IM, his swim will be the most surprising of the 3 legs. He will probably swim pretty fast.

55+4:20+3:00+4 ~ 8:19? He'll need to ride 4:15+run 3:00 for a shot at a win.

55/4:20?!?!

Did he swim off course then have a mechanical?

He's 51/52, 4:10-4:15 IMHO.

Maybe mechanical, or he cruised by Macca and said, "Dude, I can be your super domestique today....the deal is that I will pull you to Hawi and give you a gap on Crowie. I can do a better job than Faris, but you have to give half your prize money to the Lance Armstrong foundation".

Then he drops Macca on the climb to Hawi and pulls up to Lieto and says, "Hey buddy, how about a Speed Concept TT on the Queen K just like winter 2010". I'll stop at the Starbucks at Waikaloa for some espresso, give you a 4 minute head start and best man to the King Kam hotel wins bragging rights today".

If not, yeah, sure, 4:10 :-). He'd have to ride 4:15 (minimum) to contest for the win!

That's impressive...

Lance's one lung is more than the size of any other ST'rs both lungs combined--not surprisingly of course. Sorry Rapp, includes you too but you're still a better runner! ;-) nudge-nudge.