But you ARE following this thread! :)

If he sticks with it he has a good chance. It may not look like it now, but there is potential. He's gonna figure it out. Just my opinion.

Cheers,

I think they go hand in hand. But to me HR is an output and power an input.

I'm not saying you should blow past your hr numbers and go on like situation normal. But a lot influences your HR. This isn't to say you can't be successful off HR as many people do it (and to much faster times than me) that's just my thoughts.

A. In his defense, I believe he proved in IM LP that he can endure an IM even with his current fitness, pacing and nutrtion. 99% certainly wouldn't be able to wing a 11hour IM in your first attempt.
B. The head game comes down to seeing that no individual split required to KQ is out of the ordinary. Meaning swimming at 1:05, biking at 5:05 and running a 3:30 all seem manageable on paper. He's more than capable of all of these. You just can't train for what happens at hour 7 of the race, you have to experience it.
C. Again in his defense, if his main goal was to KQ this year he has every reason to pull out of races. But he is missing out on a lot of experience. With today, he could technically race again very soon. If he would have walked it in at 12-13 hours that would have been off the table.
D. 1:09 is not great, and teethering on the edge of being a deal breaker. I would be more concerned that with a lack of swim base he is probably losing a lot of energy on the swim. if he swims 20K a week, he may only get down to 1:07 but would be a lot fresher.
E. He's not over biking, he is biking as fast as he can to put himself in an outside position to KQ. If he bikes 10 minutes slower, he'd have to run a 3:15. There's really no option for him to bike any slower. I don't think he has the fastest bike split or Swim + bike combo in his AG.
F. I think his fastest 70.3 runs, 13.1 races, 10Ks, and practice runs show's he can pull it off.
G. Me too...
I. true...
J. true...

If he sticks with it he has a good chance

Have you seen his swim times? WTF?

All that time and all the resources he throws and the sport and he swims a fucking 67?

He's stepping over quarters, dines and nickles to get 1 penny. 1 lousy penny.

67 min is on the very outside, the very edge of the outside edge of swimming fast enough to be in contention to KQ.

He doesn't KQ until he learns to swim better. Any takers on that bet?

Have you seen his swim times? WTF?

All that time and all the resources he throws and the sport and he swims a fucking 67?

He's stepping over quarters, dines and nickles to get 1 penny. 1 lousy penny.

67 min is on the very outside, the very edge of the outside edge of swimming fast enough to be in contention to KQ.

He doesn't KQ until he learns to swim better. Any takers on that bet?

Have you seen his swim times? WTF?

All that time and all the resources he throws and the sport and he swims a fucking 67?

He's stepping over quarters, dines and nickles to get 1 penny. 1 lousy penny.

67 min is on the very outside, the very edge of the outside edge of swimming fast enough to be in contention to KQ.

He doesn't KQ until he learns to swim better. Any takers on that bet?[/quote
I agree. If I had to guess, his swim is not paying many divends on his bike/run as well. AGers forget the swim can suck the life out your overall performance.

He can make up that gap on the bike. The run is the unknown of course at this time until he puts that part together.

I don't think beating down his swim like a fur seal holds any weight when at LP he more than made up for that on the bike, and at MT he was too. Did he over bike to do so? Probably. That's maybe lower hanging fruit dontcha think?

I'm curious, what % of people head into a race thinking they're going to qualify for Kona? Obviously many are unsuccessful and disappointed. This is just one example that we're all aware of and is very visible. I wish him well in his quest and applaud his openness.

While I agree with you, Sam Gyde swam a 65 (minus 3s) and finished first AG overall.

Sam needs to swim faster too. :)