Challenge Roth 2023 - on the day

Jun 16, 23 2:15

Post #1 of 199 (10187 views)

Thorsten's seedings (which are based on form, not SM):
https://www.trirating.com/...-june-25th-seedings/
https://www.challenge-roth.com/en/
Women: https://www.tri247.com/...male-field-announced (Astle has dropped to a 'most probably not' of the top ten) This is only the third time Sodaro has raced this distance. The only top long distance athletes missing from the list (besides Astle) are LCB, Matthews and Moench. Amazingly strong start list: one wonders how much Roth have paid out in appearance fees (seeing prize purse is relatively small).
Bib Name Nation Time (on form)
101 Anne Haug (KQ) GER 08:20:51
103 Chelsea Sodaro (KQ) USA 08:21:13
105 Laura Philipp (KQ) GER 08:25:31
106 Daniela Ryf (KQ) SUI 08:30:34
102 Fenella Langridge (KQ) GBR 08:32:08
108 Lisa Norden (KQ) SWE 08:40:38
104 Laura Siddall GBR 08:49:21
111 Elisabetta Curridori ITA 09:05:00
Men: https://www.tri247.com/...-men-field-announced (Laidlow has not yet said he will not start)
Bib Name Nation Time (on form)
1 Magnus Ditlev (KQ) DEN 07:35:45
5 Patrick Lange (KQ) GER 07:38:54
2 Sam Laidlow (KQ) FRA 07:40:41
3 Daniel Baekkegard (KQ) DEN 07:41:07
9 Joe Skipper (KQ) GBR 07:45:16
6 Ben Kanute USA 07:45:32
17 Robert Wilkowiecki (KQ) POL 07:47:26
33 Pieter Heemeryck (KQ) BEL 07:49:24
7 Sebastian Kienle GER 07:50:08
4 Bradley Weiss (KQ) ZAF 07:50:09
19 Tristan Olij NED 07:56:38
11 Andreas Dreitz GER 07:58:18
18 Kieran Lindars GBR 08:00:51
32 Felipe Santos BRA 08:01:21
14 Andrew Starykowicz USA 08:03:39
20 Thomas Davis GBR 08:06:11
12 Nils Frommhold GER 08:07:1

Last edited by: Ajax Bay: Jun 24, 23 11:54

Re: Challenge Roth 2023 - start list and seedings [Ajax Bay] [ In reply to ]

Jun 16, 23 2:20

Post #2 of 199 (10180 views)

@iron mike shared this months ago:

iron_mike wrote:

as with the women's race, i feel like what's cool about this one isn't just that the field is 'impressive' but that it's 'interesting.' you can have races with pretty deep fields that are nonetheless predictable in how they'll play out (lots of WTS events, for instance). but this one . . .

-presumably sam, ben, maybe reece and daniel want to take the swim out really hot
-could a small group like that stay away, st-george style? or will magnus simply be too fast on this course?
-lange uncorked a positively bonkers marathon at israel - roth is certainly a good place for quick runs too.
-will sebi rally once more for the home crowd, and have another classic diesel performance moving through the field?
-and then as always with roth, there are likely to be a whole handful of smaller names who go all-in and surprise us. time was there were dudes who were virtually unknown outside germany pushing world-best times at that race - niedrig, muller, lorenz, leder . . . roth's always been a shootout.

Re: Challenge Roth 2023 - start list and seedings [Ajax Bay] [ In reply to ]

Jun 16, 23 2:51

Post #3 of 199 (10148 views)

A lot may depend on how the moto drivers behave, actually. Roth is known for the solid pull it gives the top swimmers. But the changes in moto rules announced by the race director last year (well before IM Hamburg), cutting the number of motorcycles on the course, could also include a change in their position versus the athletes? I dunno.

"FTP is a bit 2015, don't you think?" - Gustav Iden

Re: Challenge Roth 2023 - start list and seedings [Ajax Bay] [ In reply to ]

Jun 16, 23 4:17

Post #4 of 199 (10077 views)

Interested to see how Kanute does against a stronger field compared to his debut last November @ IM AZ. He's missing the World Champs because he has a family wedding. This is only his second full distance race.

The women's top-6 is stacked. If we get something like TriRatings predicts, with 6 women within 20min of each other, it'll be a lot of fun.

Re: Challenge Roth 2023 - start list and seedings [dcpinsonn] [ In reply to ]

Jun 16, 23 9:02

Post #5 of 199 (9894 views)

dcpinsonn wrote:

Interested to see how Kanute does against a stronger field compared to his debut last November @ IM AZ. He's missing the World Champs because he has a family wedding. This is only his second full distance race.

Same here!! From his Instagram videos, I think he put on some weight/muscle? So let's see.
I saw Andrew Starykowicz in the list. He hasn't raced for a while so I don't even know he will show up or not.

Re: Challenge Roth 2023 - start list and seedings [dcpinsonn] [ In reply to ]

Jun 16, 23 19:18

Post #6 of 199 (9689 views)

dcpinsonn wrote:

Interested to see how Kanute does against a stronger field compared to his debut last November @ IM AZ. He's missing the World Champs because he has a family wedding. This is only his second full distance race.

The women's top-6 is stacked. If we get something like TriRatings predicts, with 6 women within 20min of each other, it'll be a lot of fun.

Yes, especially with Ben doing a proper build for Roth.

Let food be thy medicine...

Re: Challenge Roth 2023 - start list and seedings [s13tx] [ In reply to ]

Jun 17, 23 2:57

Post #7 of 199 (9598 views)

s13tx wrote:

I saw Andrew Starykowicz in the list. He hasn't raced for a while so I don't even know he will show up or not.

He has raced sparingly with limited success since his injury and the consequent 'medication' complications.
https://stats.protriathletes.org/...e/andrew-starykowicz
Pleasingly, so far the drop out rate is comparatively low, both in the men's and women's field.
I think Haug will record a time faster than Wellington's in 2011.
I can see Ditlev, Kanute and Laidlow duking it out on the run (run is weakest discipline for both) being unsuccessfully chased down by Lange with Baekkegard being run down by Skipper (if the latter gets back to his 2022 form).
https://www.trirating.com/...-june-25th-seedings/

Last edited by: Ajax Bay: Jun 19, 23 12:10

Re: Challenge Roth 2023 - start list and seedings [Ajax Bay] [ In reply to ]

Jun 19, 23 7:26

Post #8 of 199 (9243 views)

Two great line ups, especially the ladies with maybe the best iron distance athletes in the world currently (just missing LCB).

I predict two course records.

The one thing that's disappointing....the lack of interest on this forum. I appreciate ST is predominantly US based but, come on, this is arguably the biggest race outside Kona?

Re: Challenge Roth 2023 - start list and seedings [Ajax Bay] [ In reply to ]

Jun 19, 23 7:42

Post #9 of 199 (9223 views)

Ajax Bay wrote:

s13tx wrote:

I saw Andrew Starykowicz in the list. He hasn't raced for a while so I don't even know he will show up or not.

He has raced sparingly with limited success since his injury and the consequent 'medication' complications.
https://stats.protriathletes.org/...e/andrew-starykowicz

Starky will be there. He is enjoying being a dad to his three kids.

Re: Challenge Roth 2023 - start list and seedings [Ajax Bay] [ In reply to ]

Jun 19, 23 13:15

Post #10 of 199 (9093 views)

my money is on...

Philipp
Norden
Haug

Baekkegard
Skipper
Weiss

Re: Challenge Roth 2023 - start list and seedings [deantrives] [ In reply to ]

Jun 19, 23 13:53

Post #11 of 199 (9045 views)

I'll go with the following:

1. Haug
2. Ryf
3. Sodaro

1. Ditlev
2. Kanute
3. Baekkegard

Re: Challenge Roth 2023 - start list and seedings [Lagoon] [ In reply to ]

Jun 19, 23 15:26

Post #12 of 199 (8993 views)

I note the following in the Athletes' Guide (outside assistance (nuitrition) immediately after aid stations (bike and run) is allowed)
"1.5.11 Own food and drinks
"Competitors have the opportunity to ask accompanying persons to provide them with their own food and drinks up to 100m after every aid station on the bike as well as on the run course – except the aid station on the run course located in the forest between Roth and Büchenbach. Athletes have to arrange themselves for a person to hand them their own food and drinks. The race organizer does not assume any responsibility for such services which has to be privately organized."

Re: Challenge Roth 2023 - days to go [Ajax Bay] [ In reply to ]

Jun 19, 23 16:03

Post #13 of 199 (8958 views)

Sorry for the digression off the pro topic.

Anybody have any perspective on if this is going to be a wetsuit legal swim, or not? For the AGers, that is.

Similarly, and I know the line that disc wheels are always faster, any reason to race with the rear 808 instead of the disc?

Re: Challenge Roth 2023 - days to go [Waingro] [ In reply to ]

Jun 19, 23 16:33

Post #14 of 199 (8914 views)

Waingro wrote:

Sorry for the digression off the pro topic.
Anybody have any perspective on if this is going to be a wetsuit legal swim, or not? For the AGers, that is.

" summer temperatures vary between 71 and 75 °F (22 and 24 °C)" https://www.britannica.com/...nube-River/Hydrology
From the Athletes' Guide: "Wetsuits can be used if the water temperature is up to 24.5°C (for age group athletes)."

Re: Challenge Roth 2023 - days to go [Ajax Bay] [ In reply to ]

Jun 19, 23 19:03

Post #15 of 199 (8827 views)

Haug
Ryf
Sodaro

Ditlev
Lange
Skipper

Let food be thy medicine...

Re: Challenge Roth 2023 - days to go [Ajax Bay] [ In reply to ]

Jun 19, 23 19:16

Post #16 of 199 (8812 views)

I wouldn't argue much with the mens predictions, but really am surprised at the lack of interest in Ryf? I mean she just clobbered presumable the best middle distance athlete in the world( minus Knibb), and had one of her old self swim/bike off the front combos, to the point the best runner could not get in the same area. I do get that she is either on or off these days, really wish she wouldn't race sick anymore, it just puts her in deeper holes to get out of each time. But does seem to be on once again, so would have her at or near the front most of the day..

And I said this many, many years ago too, along with Chrissie, these ladies who win races by 5 to 20+ minutes need to back off on those special days, and make it more like a long workout. Drilling the long 1/2 to full marathon runs when no one is in the same zip code as you is just pulling money out of the bank that can never be replaced. I know it is exciting when you are chasing the back pro men, or going for records that mean nothing really, but have some patience and race like a smart human, not a crazy dog chasing the school bus. It has become pretty evident over the past 40 years of watching these few truly gifted athletes, that you only have so many going deep into the well races, so save them for the few times that you really do need to punch it out to the bitter end...Rant over....

Re: Challenge Roth 2023 - days to go [JackStraw13] [ In reply to ]

Jun 20, 23 0:22

Post #17 of 199 (8692 views)

Haug
Philipp
Ryf

Wilkowiecki
Ditlev
Heemeryck

Re: Challenge Roth 2023 - start list and seedings [Ajax Bay] [ In reply to ]

Jun 20, 23 0:33

Post #18 of 199 (8682 views)

Ajax Bay wrote:

I note the following in the Athletes' Guide (outside assistance (nuitrition) immediately after aid stations (bike and run) is allowed)
"1.5.11 Own food and drinks
"Competitors have the opportunity to ask accompanying persons to provide them with their own food and drinks up to 100m after every aid station on the bike as well as on the run course – except the aid station on the run course located in the forest between Roth and Büchenbach. Athletes have to arrange themselves for a person to hand them their own food and drinks. The race organizer does not assume any responsibility for such services which has to be privately organized."

it has been always like this at least since 2005

Re: Challenge Roth 2023 - start list and seedings [Lagoon] [ In reply to ]

Jun 20, 23 0:37

Post #19 of 199 (8679 views)

Lagoon wrote:

I'll go with the following:

1. Haug
2. Ryf
3. Sodaro

1. Ditlev
2. Kanute
3. Baekkegard

I wonder if there’s someone who will surprise us just like in men’s PTO European Championship. So many big names raced but Max Neuman won. I don’t think his name was mentioned much. Anne Haug will mostly likely destroy the women’s field by her crazing fast running but Ryf is in good shape lately. You never know what Sodaro and Phillip can do so women’s race will be really interesting. Too bad LCB is not racing.

Re: Challenge Roth 2023 - days to go [Waingro] [ In reply to ]

Jun 20, 23 1:05

Post #20 of 199 (8666 views)

"Sorry for the digression off the pro topic.
Anybody have any perspective on if this is going to be a wetsuit legal swim, or not? For the AGers, that is.

Similarly, and I know the line that disc wheels are always faster, any reason to race with the rear 808 instead of the disc?"

In 2019 and 2022 the water temp was very close to the 24.5, I think 2019 was actually 24.3! Both years the weather in the lead up was very hot (30 degrees plus for several days). Worth keeping an eye on, I don't think it has ever been a wetsuit swim though.
There is no reason whatsoever to use a deep rather than a disc.

Last edited by: Joss1965: Jun 20, 23 1:07

Re: Challenge Roth 2023 - days to go [Joss1965] [ In reply to ]

Jun 20, 23 1:20

Post #21 of 199 (8648 views)

I don't think it's ever been wetsuit illegal for AG (pro is a different story).
The main reason being that they control the locks in the boat channel, and can influence stream a bit in the days prior.
No guarantee, but likely legal.

Use the disc. No reason not to. Sunday should be calm wind (unlike Thursday).

https://besse.info/
https://www.strava.com/athletes/2012033

Re: Challenge Roth 2023 - days to go [Joss1965] [ In reply to ]

Jun 20, 23 1:26

Post #22 of 199 (8644 views)

Joss1965 wrote:

"Sorry for the digression off the pro topic.
Anybody have any perspective on if this is going to be a wetsuit legal swim, or not? For the AGers, that is.

In 2019 and 2022 the water temp was very close to the 24.5, I think 2019 was actually 24.3! Both years the weather in the lead up was very hot (30 degrees plus for several days). Worth keeping an eye on, I don't think it has ever been a wetsuit swim though.

For amateurs (see question), it is normally a wetsuit swim.
e.g.

Re: Challenge Roth 2023 - days to go [monty] [ In reply to ]

Jun 20, 23 2:26

Post #23 of 199 (8602 views)

monty wrote:

I wouldn't argue much with the mens predictions, but really am surprised at the lack of interest in Ryf? I mean she just clobbered presumable the best middle distance athlete in the world( minus Knibb), and had one of her old self swim/bike off the front combos, to the point the best runner could not get in the same area. I do get that she is either on or off these days, really wish she wouldn't race sick anymore, it just puts her in deeper holes to get out of each time. But does seem to be on once again, so would have her at or near the front most of the day..

I'm invoking callaghan's law here: ryf either wins it going away, breathing through her nose, looking totally untroubled, outgoing half the men, or she doesn't factor at all. we'll probably know by about half or 2/3 of the way through the bike which is happening.

so in that case the only prediction tocmake for her is 1st or 12th, but I don't see her duking it out for 2 through 6.

____________________________________
https://lshtm.academia.edu/MikeCallaghan

http://howtobeswiss.blogspot.ch/

Re: Challenge Roth 2023 - start list and seedings [s13tx] [ In reply to ]

Jun 20, 23 2:51

Post #24 of 199 (8589 views)

I will Go with:

1. Ditlev
2. Lange
3. Baekkegard

No, im not Danish…

MD will go solo after 120k on the bike and gap everyone else. DB and PL could make it to T2 togehther…

And for the women:

1. Philipp
2. Haug
3. Ryf

LP and DR will have a significant lead off the bike. AH will catch DR But not LP…

Re: Challenge Roth 2023 - days to go [iron_mike] [ In reply to ]

Jun 20, 23 3:46

Post #25 of 199 (8549 views)

iron_mike wrote:

monty wrote:

I wouldn't argue much with the mens predictions, but really am surprised at the lack of interest in Ryf? I mean she just clobbered presumable the best middle distance athlete in the world( minus Knibb), and had one of her old self swim/bike off the front combos, to the point the best runner could not get in the same area. I do get that she is either on or off these days, really wish she wouldn't race sick anymore, it just puts her in deeper holes to get out of each time. But does seem to be on once again, so would have her at or near the front most of the day..

This sounds about right. Laidlow and Ryf have been dealing with this virus and stomach issues on and off. Either they do great or fall apart.

I'm invoking callaghan's law here: ryf either wins it going away, breathing through her nose, looking totally untroubled, outgoing half the men, or she doesn't factor at all. we'll probably know by about half or 2/3 of the way through the bike which is happening.

so in that case the only prediction tocmake for her is 1st or 12th, but I don't see her duking it out for 2 through 6.

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