http://www.bikesportmichigan.com/

Sorry, this link works... duh.

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Tom Demerly
The Tri Shop.com

Floyd will climb with Basso and TT with Der Jan. And that will do it.

That's not surprising, since glorified domestiques like Landis, Hincapie and Leipheimer don't have a chance of winning a major Tour.

Wasn't LeMond a domestique for a couple of years?

And lets not forget Miguel Indurain, he was a domestique for several years for Pedro Delgado.

Yeah, but look at how old Landis, Hincapie, Liepheimer etc are compared to Lemond and Indurain when they won their first tours.

Landis / Liepheimer could possibly win, if Basso & Ullrich both have terrible Tours and they ride perfectly and never have any bad luck. Otherwise, no.

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No mention of Valverde? He is a legitimate threat to win. Vinokourov as a darkhorse / sentimental favorite in a Claudio Chiapucci kind of way, if he is allowed to ride.

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There's a name for that, it's called wishful thinking.

You are right, Lemond was young at 25 when he first won the Tour and Indurain (and Lance) were 27 when they first won the tour; just a bit younger than Basso is right now. Landis is 30, Leipheimer is 32 and Hincapie is 33, all of those three are a bit old to be looking for their first tour win, but all are still younger then Riis when he won in 96. But lets not forget Ulrich is 32 so he isn't a young guy any more.

With all of that said, I expect Basso to win, Ulrich to finish second and someone from Discovery (Azevedo, Popovych or Hincapie) to finish third.

So, is the Tour a matter of just Ullrich or Basso? Are there any other real contenders?

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Tom Demerly
The Tri Shop.com

Ullrich is 32, but he does have a proven track record. So does Basso.

Yes, Riis (Mr. 60 percent) was older when he won his Tour, but that is the exception rather than the rule.

I like Azevedo a lot, but I don't think he has what it takes to podium at the Tour. Popovych, on the other hand, is a legitimate threat to podium. (much more so than Hincapie).

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Based on Popo's results lately I don't think he has much of a chance. I think Levi has a better chance. One of the Orangemen (Mayo and I forgot the other guy) have been riding well too though I don't think they'll contend for the overall. All I have to say is I'm recording every minute of it for winter training!

John

I agree. At this stage, I think it may be Basso's to lose. Anything can happen, but I would hesitate to say the race is wide open. Even Armstrong tipped Basso as the heir apparent.

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Tom Demerly
The Tri Shop.com

You couldn't be more clueless with that comment. You really should stop and think for a moment before you fire off idiotic comments.

Jack

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"Only those who risk going too far can possibly find out how far one can go." T.S. Elliot | Cycle2Tri.com
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What fun would that be for the rest of us?

True, I just sometimes hope for thoughtful ideas with some merit, but am often let down.



Jack

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"Only those who risk going too far can possibly find out how far one can go." T.S. Elliot | Cycle2Tri.com
Sponsors: SciCon | | Every Man Jack

[reply]
So, is the Tour a matter of just Ullrich or Basso? Are there any other real contenders? [/reply]

I don't think so, if someone other than one of those two wins, I think it would be a major surprise. The Tour is theirs to lose, if Basso can TT close to Jan he wins easily, If Jan stays close Basso in the mountains then it should be his to win.

I am expecting that it will come down to the final time trial with Jan needing to close a gap of 2 or 2 1/2 minutes on Basso in order to win. Then we should see a close finish.

The others need both of these guys to falter in order to have a reasonable chance of winning.

I agree with your analysis. A duel in the final time trial would be a great outcome.

I'm torn as to who I want to win. A big part of me wants to see Ullrich prevail. The man has paid his dues and had some incredible rides. It was his misfortune he was racing in the age of such a dominant rider as Armstrong.

One way or another, it will be incredibly exciting.

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Tom Demerly
The Tri Shop.com

I was just thinking about the Disco boys, who has a chance to podium on that team. Floyd and Levi are both greater threats to podium than anyone on Disco.

Based on the way he's been riding, I'd say Basso should be the favourite. Ullrich's stock has risen tremendously in the last few weeks, and with only 3 mountaintop finishes in this year's Tour, along with a team that is finally dedicated 100% to Jan, and no TTT for CSC to gain time on T-Mobile, Ullrich is my favourite for le Tour. Basso was also going really well in the Giro, maybe he peaked too early?? Who knows?

So. my predictions. a 2 horse race for the top step, Jan by a nose over Basso.

The 3rd step will be a closer race. Floyd, Levi, Valverde, Popo (outside chance), Mayo, Kloden, etc. my pick - Floyd.

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Seriously, why is that an idiotic and clueless comment? Those riders ARE glorified domestiques, that since leaving (or not) USPS, never had relevant results as team leaders. The results speak for themselves when it comes to Leipheimer and Landis, as they never lived out their own expectations, which are not the expectations of the people that actually know one or two things about cycling. Most times I think it's impossible that those are american btw.

And if you're after clueless remarks, how about going after the people that think that Hincapie or Azevedo will be the Discovery leaders for the Tour? That would be a good place to start.

I disagree with your assessment that Landis and Leipheimer have not had significant results since leaving USPS. Both have won major tier-2 tours as GC leaders. I'm not talking about TdGeorgia, but real European races like Paris-Nice, Tour of Germany and obviously this years Dauphine.

I don't think that makes them automatically Tour victory contenders, but both have top 10 finishes from last year, both have had good results this year and both are strong at both TT and climbing.

The Tour is clearly Basso or Ullrichs to lose, but if either (or both) of them have bad days, both Floyd and Levi should be as ready as anyone else to take over the lead.

The results from the 2001 Vuelta:

1 Angel Casero (Spa) Festina 70.49.05 (42.534 km/h)*
2 Oscar Sevilla (Spa) Kelme-Barclaycard 0.47
3 Levi Leipheimer (USA) US Postal Service 2.59
4 Roberto Heras (Spa) US Postal Service 3.56
5 Juan Miguel Mercado (Spa) iBanesto.com 5.45
6 David Plaza (Spa) Festina 5.53
7 José Luis Rubiera (Spa) US Postal Service 6.57
8 Klaus Möller (Den) Milaneza-MSS 7.13
9 Aitor Osa (Spa) iBanesto.com 8.32
10 Fernando Escartin (Spa) Team Coast 10.31
11 Iban Mayo (Spa) Euskaltel-Euskadi 12.58


Although perhaps not the team leader that year, Levi has certainly shown the capability to excel in a GT.

How come no mention of AG2Rs Mancebo and Moreau among the best of the rest going for the podium? I like their chances.

I think they have a strong shot at the podium- Mancebo is always there when the pressure is on.

I doubt they will be on the top step unless there is some stroke of bad luck with Ullrich and Basso.

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Tom Demerly
The Tri Shop.com