Vino.... Now that is interesting. Hmmm.

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Tom Demerly
The Tri Shop.com

In order to win a major tour, you have to be able to climb with the best on the last climb of a hard stage. Do you have any reason to believe that Hincapie can't do that? Saying he hasn't isn't good enough, since that hasn't been part of his job description in any of the TdFs so far. Seriously, what's the basis of your view here? Do you know that his W/kg is too low? Do you know what kind of training he's been doing?

His metamorphosis over the years is remarkable, and he has shown his ability to stay with the leaders over every climb that he's required to. His TT ability is very high. He's learned from the best.

I hate to say it, but do some of you feel like when you watch the leader you will be watching the "second best" because Lance is not there?

I do. Perhaps I shouldn't - but I do.

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Adrian in Vancouver

Yep, I feel like that since Eddy Merckx stopped racing...

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Fuck a duck and try to fly

I guess this are the same that said that USA would win their group and go on to next stage on the World Cup...

Soccer aside...

There is no way that under normal circumstances either Landis, Leipheimar or Hencapie will win the Tour. To be honest I'm not expecting that Basso will win it either. The minimum I can say regarding the way he dominated the Giro is that it makes think! He not just seemed to have peaked to early, but too strong too (if you know what I mean!!!)!

I guess we will have our answers in a couple of weeks, but if I were you, I would be prepared to see a bunch of Europeans on the top ten.

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The "Pocket Hercules" - jgrat

Technique sets the upper limit to where your fitness will take you...

Somehow, I don't think that the betting line from a major European (Belgian) online casino would have reflected the American football (soccer) aspirations the way it does their TDF hopes...

IOW, I think you are missing the point of my post, which is that the legitimate aspirations of the US TDF contenders are not a localized US-boosting phenomena. These hopes are reflected in the publicly expressed sentiments of the favorites themselves, the interviews with team directors, and the betting lines - a typically reliable litmus of "informed" European public opinion.

None of this is my opinion; I haven't said anything about what I think will happen :0) I'm just refuting Paulo's transparently biased "US fans are ignorant homers" interpretation, and supporting the idea that, in fact, the weight of public opinion world wide supports the idea that their are, in fact, legitimate US contenders for the title this season.



- not that this means these opinions are correct, btw - just that they are reasonable, given the facts in evidence, and apart from nationalistic bias.









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"No mention of Valverde? He is a legitimate threat to win."



Jason,

I agree with you on this. Nobody's talking about him at all and he was so strong last year ... and had a good Spring, too.

Bob C.

"Do you have any reason to believe that Hincapie can't do that?"

It isn't about whether I have any reason to believe that he can't climb with the best, just that I don't have any reason to believe that he can climb with the best, day after day, and also smoke the TT's. George is a very good rider, no doubt, but he has never shown that he has that little extra to make him a podium threat. Traditionally, he has been very good on the lower slopes of the climbs, even shelling some of the pure climbers who were on bad days, but he only has one tdf stage win to his credit.

Even Eros Poli has won a mountain stage (Ventoux, I think??)

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Understood. My question is, again, is there any evidence that he doesn't have that little extra? An argument can be made that he has never had to, and in fact showing that "little extra" would have been counter to the team plan by having him not recovered for the work of the next day.

I think for any DC guy to win it will take different race tactics. There are 4 guys that are a threat. Not to win in a climbing battle with Basso, or out TT Jan, but they could take turns attacking, or getting in break aways and stir the shit up. Hincapie is probably my favorite rider, but you are don't seeing the facts if you except him to win the TDF the way it has been raced the past 7 years, and before that. If DC dictates the race instead of letting CSC ride every ones legs off on the climbs it will shake things up.

I would not be surprised to see 2 Americans in the top 10 and 3 in the top 15. Seeing one on the top step in Paris... possible, but a long shot maybe. Should be fun to watch.

The old no proof of the negative must be positive argument...... ;)

It all comes down to what have folks done when the leaders are all together at the foot of the last climb. Sort out the men from the boys.

Basso, Jan, Mayo, Valverda, Vino have all shown at one time or another that they can not only hold on, but drop the rest.

Levi seems to be almost there. Floyd and George have never demonstrated this. Hope they do, hope they can, but haven't seen it yet. Not in the same league as the others mentioned.

<<I agree with you on this. Nobody's talking about him [Valverde] at all and he was so strong last year ... and had a good Spring, too. >>

No one is talking about him because there are over 100kms of time trials.....

Landis and Leipheimer have won PT races in the last year, so apparantly you must be looking only at the winners of GTs as winners of respectable races. Leipheimer has never finished outside the top 10 in the tour, with almost zero support in every year, and don't forget he finished on the podium in the Vuelta in lhis ast year as a domestic for USPS. Landis hasn't been around long enough to have any expectations, so I don't know where your thoughts on that come from, and he has had a stellar year so far which has to be evaluated as meeting 'expectations'.

I do agree with you about the Disco boys, and would love to take those who think Big H has a reasonable chance to finish on the podium.

I will say, the American riders, outside of Basso and Ullrich, are more complete than any of the others who aspire to the podium.

Jack

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"Only those who risk going too far can possibly find out how far one can go." T.S. Elliot | Cycle2Tri.com
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I vote for Lance!! He will definitely do it again this year!!













;-)

Easy up there... I have lived in Europe for the last 5.5 years (although I am now back in the U.S.), so I am quite aware of the european and south american riders. Most french, spanish, italian and German riders would kill to win the races that Leipheimer and Landis have one over the last year. They would also love to be able to TT like the American riders, as that is such a key to the GTs.

Stereotyping aside, I think your mistaken to write off Landis and Leipheimer, and the other anglo, Cadel Evans because they all possess great power to weight ratios, which is one of the keys to success in GTs.

Jack

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I thought Valverde was a decent TT'er, along with being an excellent climber and pretty good in a sprint. Just a very useful all-rounder.

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I personally would love to see GH get on the podium. He seems like a class guy, tons of heart and worked like a dog for Lance for a long time...Like many, I was thrilled when he pulled off the stage win last year. Physically, he may the talent to get Top 3. Unfortunately, I agree with others that have stated that he is simply not in the same league as Basso, Ullrich... but I think its more a mental issue, than a physical one. I've heard it stated before, by his teammates (I think it was on the Discovery channel special that covered his buildup to Paris Roubaix last year), he's simply too nice a guy to win. Sounds ridiculous....I know.

But for some reason, I don't see him having the edge necessary to grab the race by the throat. You know what I'm talking about....the magical 'IT'. The killer instinct. The anger and will to throttle every one else on the course. Lance obviously had it in spades. Ullrich has it. Basso has it. Vino has it....but does he have the strategy and patience to ration his efforts when he needs to?? I also think Landis has it, though I have questions if Phonak can support him the way that CSC and T-Mobile are able to support Basso and Ullrich.

Leipheimer is certainly a wild card. So is Mayo.

Just ask yourself, can you picture GH giving 'The Look'?? Anyway, I hope I'm wrong.

One thing is certain...its going to be an exciting Tour.

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JP

my twitter feed

Lets not forget that Landis and Hincapie probably have 1 or 2 more Dr. appointments, err, I mean training sessions with Ferrari.........

<< I thought Valverde was a decent TT'er>>

He's not as bad as Cunego, but he's pretty bad.....

Ullrich, Landis, Basso, and probably even Leipheimer will put some good time into him in the TTs.

Congrats, you just made my list of people that amuse me by how highly they think of themselves.

Maybe I should tell you how many "Grand Tours" (not to be confused with major tours) I've watched, but I'll just let you know that I have raced in Europe most of my life.

Anyone that thinks that those 3 have a shot at a TdF podium is an ignorant homer. The truth hurts.

I think "pretty bad" is a bit unkind. He didnt lose major time in Romandie or the Dauphine (2.03 down on Dave Z over 43km and 28s down on GH). He loses too much time to be a contender for the win in the tour but will be a strong contender for the podium if he shakes it up in the mountains.

As for Basso being a sitter - he knows that the rules have changed with LA gone and he will be working to be the one who makes the rules - witness the solo rides at the Giro.

I shall be supporting Ullrich as I have done for the last 7 years (despite the fact he turned to the dark side and rides a Giant with ShimaNO) and I think the race for 3rd is going to be the exciting one (given that there are a lot of guys who could come 5th but want to make that 5 a 3). I rate Discos chances of having someone (whoever they choose as the boss) up in the mix as they know what it takes at the tour.

The most crucial thing is surviving the first week without getting taken out in a mass pileup, whoever is left after that can start racing.

I think that it's going to be really close unless Jan has timed his form corectly, in which case it's his to lose. I think Basso will have a bad day or two and won't be in the running for the victory. The top 5 spots will come down to who has timed his fitness the best. One or two of the GC faves will have mis-timed his peak and will finish outside the top 10, it's just a matter of who.

Everybody's already named most of the favorites for the top 10, though I think Menchov will also be in the mix. There will probably be a Spanish rider that finishes in the top 10 who isn't touted among the favorites, probably a Saunier or Astana rider, possibly Contador or Marchante.

I really think you'll see Valverde in the podium mix. Despite what some think he's improved his TTing quite a bit. In any case, I think he and Basso may be fighting it out for yellow in the coming years.

Did anyone else notice that all 5 of the pre-Giro favorites will be at the Tour? Basso, Simoni, Savoldelli, Cunego, and DiLuca are all doing the double.

The question is, if Floyd or Levi (the only US riders with a real shot) do podium, will you own up to being wrong w/o rationalizing or making excuses?

Of course everything here is skewed towards American athletes. I can see how it would get to you...hell, sometimes it even bothers me & I'm from here. It's only natural though - the vast majority of the people who post here are from the US.

If this was a Spanish forum, there would be talk about Jan and Ivan, and the rest of the discussion would focus on Mayo, Valverde, Mancebo, etc..., and non-Spanish riders on Spanish teams, like Vino.

I guess I'd just be surprised if you really didn't think either of those guys even had a shot at the podium. I mean, if it weren't for Vino's heroics on the final stage last year, Levi would have finished 5th. Another thing to think about in this Tour is the dearth of mountaintop finishes and the large amount of TT miles. For whatever reason, the Americans in the Euro peloton tend to excel in time trials. Personally, I just think you're trying to get people all riled up, like usual ;-)

Of course, but I seriously don't see it happening.

And if this was a german forum, maybe we would be talking about Kloden, is he racing? Kloden is my favorite UN-glorified domestique, that happened to win Paris-Nice and podium at the TdF. He would be a great leader either for Gerosteiner or Phonak, with Leipheimer or Landis riding for him he would have a shot at the win.

Kloden is on the tmobile team for the tour. I think he has 1 too many bad days to podium (at least based on last year) and frankly I haven't heard anything about him this year (other than he hasn't done much).