Don’t slow down just because it hurts.

Did my first 70.3 at 50 in Santa Cruz this September off training that was inconsistent at best. Was below my power target on the bike (171 vs 178, although WAP was 184) but still got quad cramps before the turnaround that completely killed my run. Ended up at 5:46 with 34, 2:48, 2:14. Want to try again next year and really target more consistent training, and was thinking I could get to 5:00 if I can avoid injuries (a big if for me). The run is obviously the real weak point, and I seriously thought I could do close to 1:50 this time. In my head, 30-ish, 2:35, 1:45 is entirely possible with good training.

+1 on not slowing down as the run on the HIM is not about going fast, it's about slowing down the least and not giving in.

I'm not fast by any stretch but have hit sub 5 three times in my life. First in 2017 and now I've hit 4:58 and 4:59 in 2 of my last 3 races at age 51. would have been faster but I'm still doing a crappy job (pun intended) with my pre race eating as I've had bathroom bowel issues during the race - twice at my last race :-(

One other thing that helped me a ton is to train slow to go fast. All the benefits of Zn 1-2 training ie increasing mitochondrial density, more efficient energy utilization are key. Most of my training buds won't commit to this. They are all about winning the training sessions. GO, GO, GO. But then they can't race a damn. What I've noticed is that my HR is about 10-15 beats lower than it was 2 years ago before I embraced the go slow training. I used to train in upper z2/low z3 thinking it was making me better. It was just massaging my ego. It really doesn't matter how much power you put out if your HR is out of control at the goal power there is no chance you will be able to maintain it for 5 hours. so be patient and work on becoming even more cardiovascularly fit.

oh yeah.

i've been racing tri since i was a kid, and did my first half at 18. i'd run a 1:45 half at 16 and i think at 18/19 i ran a 1:34. so i had the basic ability to run OK for the half.

but holy cow. by first half had a fast swim and run course, but a hilly bike (collingwood, ontario), it was also really hot. it was the old days, and i knew nothing about nutrition, pacing, etc. swam a 33, biked a 2:41, and then ... ran a 2:02 for a 5:18. giving up the better part of 20 minutes on the run cost me a sub-5 that day.

admittedly i wasn't gunning specifically for sub-5 that day, but looking over the whole performance, the obvious low-hanging fruit is the run.

arguably that's about working on your run. alternatively, that's down to swim and bike fitness - getting fit enough that you can run to potential off the bike.

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https://lshtm.academia.edu/MikeCallaghan

http://howtobeswiss.blogspot.ch/

That 2sec/lb/mile rule of thumb surely breaks down at some point. My legs can't even move fast enough to run a 1:03 HM pace for 200m. Haha. I'm several inches taller than 5'10", so my BMI is around 24. Not enough room to lose 50 pounds anyway!

Checking strava, my 1:25 was 200m short. But I also have an accurate 2:53 open marathon at 85kg. At the bigger races, there seem to be others of my weight finishing around me, too.

I just want to encourage OP that you can be in this weight category and finish a 70.3 in 4.5 hrs. Dropping weight would help but isn't a requirement for sub 5.

From my perspective going sub 5 is all about the run. Almost anyone can swim sub 40 (preferably sub 35) and any reasonable bike is between 2:25 and 2:40, so transitions aside, it comes down to the run. If you can't run it will never happen. My best is 5:31, with a lousy (personal best run) 2:14 for the HM, but then I was 71 at the time. Being able to run sub 1:45 is a must.

Without wishing to be pedantic, my most recent 70.3 was 4:57 with a 1:46 run (went out too hard in hot conditions, cooked myself).
I don’t disagree that a strong run makes things easier, but my strengths are definitely the swim and bike, and I haven’t gone over 5hrs in the last 3 hrs.