Lol!

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the world's still turning? >>>>>>> the world's still turning

Seems you are jesting somewhat that you'd ride all of the course in the small ring when you clearly would be giving time up on the downhills pushing from the top. If you're that concerned about saving your legs it seems you haven't done enough to strengthen your cycling & some time spent doing that would be advisable by most on this board.

As for the winds--I think my first Kona was '95 or '96...I forget which year...I couldn't speak on the variance of wind conditions myself because it was always seemingly windy to me--and the heat/humidity was a bigger concern out there than the winds. I don't even know which years I've done Kona & would have to look at the finisher shirts (13 racing there...1x DNF from the flu)...but it was always stupid hard of a race for me & never really raced well there.

I will say aside from winds, the OLD course with the Kona Surf T2 and "The Pit" was a much harder course than the current one (even though I've stopped racing IM races about 6'ish years ago) + we know all those years the swim course was LONG...makes it seem to add to an otherwise already long day.

So as for the current swim record out there since it was discovered to be long--not buying that it is the "real" fastest time. The waves may have been worse with the wind so hard to judge swim records when the conditions and distance varied. You'd still have to look at Lars Jorgenson's time in a plain old speedo as the fastest. I'm not sure Jan Sibbersen's time was on the old longer course or current course--wasn't there something like the buoy on the ocean floor was moved or drifted around that time?

Not sure if had has been posted yet, but the start time makes a not insignificant difference to the winds seen by the pro riders. I can't remember the year it changed, I think 2014, Sebi's Kona win, the last time the race started at 0630 as opposed to today's 0600 start which makes a significant difference in the headwinds and cross winds faced on the Kona bike.

Certainly, the professionals as a whole are better riders today, and are on better equipment with optimized equipment.

Undoubtedly, the earlier race start time is definitely one the biggest reasons for consistently faster bike times in Kona and combined with a now shorter (apparently more accurate swim) overall times are faster.

I've only done it in 2010, 2012, and 2014. As I recall, 2014 was brutal....

I rode up to Hawi and back today from Kawaihae (36 miles) and it was super mellow. I think that's just how today was (or when I did it, 8-10am) and I wouldn't be surprised to see it terrifying again tomorrow....

I wouldn't recommend riding only in your small (I'm assuming a 39 or a 34) ring. I'm running a 53/39-12/28 and I used everyone of the gears on the ride today all in effort to keep my wattage as constant as possible. I think the correct strategy is just that. Pick your target wattage (based on your training) and shift your gears around as you progress along the course so you are hitting the cadence that you feel most comfy in. If you just use your small-ring there will definitely be sections where you have to spin at 100+ RPM and/or just coast....better to try to flatline your watts as much as possible! If you want to save your legs for the run, pick a lower target watts and take a bit longer on the bike...which probably is something that 80+% of the field should do....

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Randy Christofferson(http://www.rcmioga.blogspot.com

Insert Doubt. Erase Hope. Crush Dreams.

I was there that year and that’s what it looked like - Stadler biked back from the turn into a rising breeze. The guys 10 minutes behind got materially worse conditions and he went onto the run course with about 20 minutes in his pocket over Reid. My abiding memory of getting back into town was how quiet it was after several hours of listening to the wind turbulence roaring around my not inconsiderable ears. It was also quite possibly the least enjoyable bike ride I’ve ever done. I was there for 10 days beforehand and I don’t remember any other days being anything like it.

I live off of the Akoni Pule (the 2-lane highway between Kawaihae and Hawi) on that series of stair step climbs, and I can say that while there are general patterns (less windy in the early morning, windier in the late morning and afternoon), I often find that conditions change within a ride. My community is in a pocket of Kohala that's fairly sheltered from the wind, but once I hit mile marker 12 (a couple of miles before Lapakahi and Mahukona), that's where the crosswinds often start, even if it's calm elsewhere. There's a big wind farm by Upolu Airport (the turnaround for the Honu race) for a reason - even when the trades aren't up all over the island, it's often windy there. On the Queen K it's often windy on the section from the Mauna Kea to Scenic Point, but since it's wrapping around the volcano what starts as a crosswind at Mauna Kea often becomes a tailwind by the time you hit Puako or the Mauna Lani going south. (The local nickname for Waikoloa is "Waiko-blow-a".) Or not - it really varies by the day and hour.

If however the trades are up, then it's usually windy all over the North and South Kohala districts (from Scenic Point all the way to Hawi). Right now we're in a lull, so it isn't particularly windy (but the humidity is way up). Race day, who knows. The Windy app is pretty good for planning purposes, but like any predictive model more accurate the closer you are to target time.

On a related note, I saw some pros on the Queen K the other day when I returned from a mainland business trip - well, I guess they were pros, since they were wearing the Erdinger kit - and some had disc wheels on their bikes. Sort of an odd equipment choice when you're traveling given that Ironman won't let you use them. But most days here you'd be fine with a disc wheel - Lavaman allows them, as do all of the local TTs put on by Hawaii Cycling Club.

Ian

So are you thinking that the 0625 start time this year will have an affect on the race this year? I know the winds here haven't been as strong this year but it is more inline with the pre 2015 start times.

I’m coasting at every opportunity. Every.

I hear you on coasting…save your matches for the run. I do find when the cross winds blow on the Hawi descent that it’s good to be spinning a bit…seems to be more stable…even if it’s just 100 watts or so….you also don’t want your legs to stiffen up…when you get back down to Kawaihae you have some pretty significant climbing to do!

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Randy Christofferson(http://www.rcmioga.blogspot.com

Insert Doubt. Erase Hope. Crush Dreams.

160W, what's that in W/kg? Thanks