la Nina and El Nino have affected winds around the world and they don't occur in any kind of regularity, so it might be that we had a period of quite a few years where winds were affected by this phenomena. But looking at a 30-40 year period I would guess the winds are still as strong.

I was in Kona last year on what would have been race day, the winds headed to Hawi were blowing hard and would not have been fun! I can't compare to prior years though!

I don't think the trades have changed that much, they might just been shifting how strong they are at different times of the year.
I haven't been to Kona, but the last time I was on Maui during the summer it was WINDY AF with small craft advisory every day.

The trade winds on the big island change from hr to hr , day to day and I’m sure year to year
I can assure you it still gets windy as F out on the Queen K and just below hawi
If you really want serious wind head up higher above hawi and ride the koholas, on the Ultraman course it’s mega dangerous and a windy day , far worse than down below where the IM course goes
But saying that you can also go there and it’s super still at times

I’m sure mark is just like everyone , as we all get older we think everything was harder , bigger , hotter , colder and cheaper back in the day lol

At least 2 factors
1/ Ironman was for a long time raced on the Saturday closest to the full moon in October. It was moved to the second Saturday of the month in around 2006. Full moon --> stronger winds
2/ the old scheduling (as above) meant races were often later in October. It's generally windier later in the year on the big island.

You can still name the really windy years - just look at the bike splits.
2012 (moderate)
2004 (severe - no women under 5.30!)
2001
1997
1995
etc

but nothing super windy in the last decade

That was helpful, thanks.
Nobody is taking a bite on my small chainring question.

I’ll bite. If you have qualified for Kona, you are clearly an experienced rider. The answer to your question is do what you do on every ride, decide moment to moment what gearing best allows you to hold the cadence and intensity you have trained for :-) It is very likely you will find use for both!

Yesterday and 4 days ago there was about the same wind: tailwind on the queen k direction north.
I did a two-hour interval on the Queen K, starting at Palani, keeping the same intensity 1 hour out and 1 hour back. Yesterday I had an average 38,4 km/h at the turnaround (even with 3 stops at red lights). Back must have been < 30 km/h, since the total average was about 32. OK on the way back I helped a girl out who had ran out of water. Wattage was a bit over 160.
(4 days ago there happened the same although the wind might have been slightly less). It was in the afternoon.

I tell you, with that tailwind and smooth asphalt you will be spinning your legs without any resistance with a small chainring.

dnfkona2000 wrote:

I haven’t raced Kona since 2005 but I listened to a webinar hosted by Mark Allen and he said that the winds aren’t nearly as bad as they used to be say 20 years ago. Is that true?

Bike and wheel technology has improved significantly over the last twenty years. Easier to ride today's bikes in strong winds than it was to ride bikes twenty years ago in strong winds. I wonder if that's what is actually leading Allen to that observation.

Ok but this year 2022 the full moon is October 10th and we will run on the 08th?!? What should we think?

Old timey triathletes say a lot of things that aren’t true. I saw a post the other day that guys in the 80’s did ironmans at 28 mph.
The previous generation will always claim to be better and faster in worse conditions. It’s just the way it is.

Well … my experiences were as follows:1998 and 2000 the winds were horrible , crazy (year Sister Madonna broke everything). 2005 there was zero wind, literally zero wind. So I think there might be some truth in what Mark Allen said. I was hoping that someone with some long experience at Kona could weigh in on on what the last decade has been like.

I mean saying “the winds aren’t nearly as bad as they used to be” is just a statement an old timer would make.
Saying one year had stronger winds than another is certainly an accurate statement. Weather changes all the time and can change hour to hour. I trained on the 70.3 Santa Cruz course a dozen times and there’s a wind pattern but once the wind went the complete opposite direction. If you asked me if the wind is worse now than 20 years ago I’d have no idea without the data but if you came out in the afternoon vs the morning you would say the winds are way worse.

I’m asking about patterns not day to day variance. Btw Newby Fraser said the same thing on her webinar. Think I’m going to drop out on this one. Thanks.

Sounds to me like going to school uphill in the snow both ways.
This website tracks wind speeds at the airport year over year. From 2021 to 2004 the average speed is about the same.
https://weatherspark.com/...tes#Figures-Humidity

It’s most likely that the wind seems harder at hour 4 of the bike than it does as a spectator or commentator. It’s also good for the brand.

I heard the swim course used to be uphill!

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"When the going gets weird, the weird turn pro."
Hunter S. Thompson

Dave is correct that the trades are changing, just not in the way that he is discussing. They are shifting from NE to E and might actually be strengthening somewhat according to data.

I looked into this paper last year as this shift is supposedly connected to a decrease in rainfall and therefore a decrease in aquifer recharge on the islands. #drinkingwaterthings

True on race day but about 2 or 3 days before the race, the winds were howling from Kawaihae to Hawi.

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clm
Nashville, TN
https://twitter.com/ironclm | http://ironclm.typepad.com

2012, 2014 had very high DNF , many accidents 2014 on return from Havi.
There will be unpredictable winds, 2013 was great!

I raced 2012 and 2014, what was tough is there was a steady headwind heading towards Hawi, then the trades kicked in so there was a sideways wind all the way back to the airport. The trades blow away all the cloud cover, so it makes for a very bright day.

My only trip was '17. I recall it being pretty windy, but manageable. Wish I could use it as an excuse for my rather lousy time.
The day after was really really windy, would have been more than a few riders blown off the road, I'm not exaggerating.
My guess is that any day could be windy, or not.

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I saw this on a white board in a window box at my daughters middle school...
List of what life owes you:
1. __________
2. __________
3. __________

1982: average winds. Generally from the south at 10-20
1983: the year of the bad crosswinds. 30-40 gusting to 60+ going NW to SE. A friend was black w from the center of the lane off the road going down from Hawi. I gripped the bars so tight I had hand palsy for a month. I believe it is on YouTube.
1984: HOT!!
1985: minimal wind, a bit overcast, some showers. My best bike - sub 6 hours.

I raced in 2004 and knew it was going to be a long day when there was a headwind on the way out. If I recall Peter Reid rode over 5 hours that day and only 1 women broke 10hr's. I remember talking with Peter and I think he said something about Norman getting out just before the winds changed and he ended up riding 4:30 something.

Great! (Pink) Full moon is on 10/9.