aerobean wrote:
devashish_paul wrote:
I was just watching Kona 2018 while spinning on the rollers yesterday and watching him run early on the run leg in the chase group behind Cam Wurf was pretty impressive. Not as impressive as Lange, but if he can pull together a low 2:4x in Kona (he ran 2:53 that day), he is right in the mix for the win. Well there would need to be a kona 2021 first for him to actually win Kona 2021 and he's gonna need to get out of NZ magically, which from what I gather is not that easy.
I'm a huge fan of Braden Currie and I think he's an awesome athlete, but you're somewhat omitting what happened to him in 2019 in Kona. In 2019, Currie came out with the front pack on the swim but somehow couldn't hang on the bike with the likes of Frodeno, Alistair, T.O., and Clavel. It's surprising to me that he let them go as I consider him a pretty great rider. So while he seems to be pretty solid on the bike around the globe, him letting those guys go in 2019 makes me doubt his ability to win the race. I think his run is a weapon and I love his running form, but I think his run gives him the ability to possibly podium but not necessarily win.
All that being said, I would love to see Braden Currie win Kona and some other big races.
I wonder if Braden's decision in 2019 was strategic. Alistair was riding like an idiot early in the race from a pacing perspective. Jan stayed close enough, to not let the rubber band completely snap and used Alistair as an unpaid domestique to break Lange and a few others who had to overbike to keep Alistair's pace (including Alistair himself who was overbiking). Jan only went so deep early. He was a master tactician, using Alistair to up the pace, but never really burnning his own matches. Only Tim and Jan had any business staying in the vicinity of Alistair. Alistair himself had no business being in the vicinity of himself as he later proved out.
In light of that Braden likely had to make a tactical decision. Go at the pace of Alistair and end up like Lange, or choose his sustainable pace. He ended up with a bunch of people that biked around 4:30 which was waaay too slow to contend. What I would be interested in knowing was once the Jan group was out of sight, he still had a chance to being a 47.xx swimmer to ride on Sebi, Wurf, Lionel and others who were coming by. I think he would have come off around the same time as Matt Russell.
You are right that if he's going to contend he has to be able to shadow Jan and frankly if Alistair gets his act together like at IM Western Oz 2019, he has to shadow him. All these guys can run as fast as Braden. And in 2018 Lange proved he can outrun Braden, so if Braden can't be that far behind Jan, or latch onto Sebi-Wurf-Lionel, then he won't have a big buffer to someone like Lange. But if you can't come off the bike less than 5 min behind Jan your game is over if Jan is not injured.