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Re: Dirty T - exciting startlist, who wins? [jkhayc] [ In reply to ]
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So who do you think would win if it the downhill is included?
Kanute, Hoffman, or Rudy?
I can't imagine anyone else stands a chance if it's uphill and downhill.

Holly will win somewhat easily unless Paula is super fit. Then Holly will win on the run by a smaller margin.

I wish there were more races like this!
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Re: Dirty T - exciting startlist, who wins? [oprfcc] [ In reply to ]
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Lemmon to Windy and down or Kitt Peak up and down? That would prob change my answer.

Also, for pure speculative armchair quarterback purposes is it very windy, somewhat (normal) windy, or mild?
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Re: Dirty T - exciting startlist, who wins? [jkhayc] [ In reply to ]
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Lemmon, moderate wind. Is what I was thinking. But I have to admit, I'd love to see the results on a strong windy day.

Although, now I'm curious what you think about Kitt Peak. (Moderate wind)
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Re: Dirty T - exciting startlist, who wins? [oprfcc] [ In reply to ]
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oprfcc wrote:
Lemmon, moderate wind. Is what I was thinking. But I have to admit, I'd love to see the results on a strong windy day.

Although, now I'm curious what you think about Kitt Peak. (Moderate wind)


I think Lemmon with moderate wind would give the most advantage to the least skilled bike riders.

The "Down from Windy Point" segment is probably the most useful reference point in terms of strava segments, and the gaps are decent. For all intents and purposes, the KOM for people doing a real ride (the top two drove up to Palisades and specifically tried to get the downhill KOM so I don't really include them) is

18:42 (44.1mph) - Mike Woods (decent cyclist...)
19:51 (41.5mph) - Hoffman

Someone that's very fit but maybe not a confident descender is probably in the 21-23min range.

The "M0 to Windy Point" is the best uphill segment

Lionel did that in 54 minutes @ 375w (although he was doing another 40mins of work that day so prob could have gone a few % harder). That is the only effort on there that I think was pretty much full gas; I don't think Hoff has ever done that type of effort up Lemmon. I think Lionel puts 4-6mins on his competitors in that climb. It plays completely to his strengths; just grip it and rip it. I also think Lionel would give up (most likely) almost all of that time on the downhill.

Kitt Peak I think is the way better test of cycling ability. Lionel made up a segment (miles 3-12 for some reason) to take the "Kitts Peak" climb (it's Kitt Peak) and he did it very, very fast. But that is a far more demanding descent that is way more susceptible to wind and, as such, I think he would lose more time there than on Mt Lemmon.

This is the real Kitt Peak Segment (there is a TT up it every late summer). Sam Long put up a very quick time earlier this year (and he rode out there, he did not drive, 143mi total ride that day) of 54:19 @ 13mph. Lionel's segment (where he started going HAM at mile ~3) was at 14.3mph. Sam Long went through that same segment about 6mins down on Lionel. Figure Lionel doing the real climb and not the cherry-picked one and let's say at the top LS has 4.5ish minutes on the so-called "Big Unit." Sam did not register a time on the "Kitt Peak Descent" segment, but what he did register was slow AF (27.2 mph). For reference, the KOM is @ 45mph.

Basically, Kitt Peak (almost no matter the wind, but especially in moderate to high wind) favors the athletes who are actually good at riding their bikes and Lemmon favors the athletes that are good at being triathletes. I think the test overall favors high octane athletes a la BK, RVB, Lionel but I think locals would get a boost due to knowing the descents extremely well. My vote would obviously be Hoff, but SL is probably the absolute fittest at the moment. But he's not a good descender of mountains.
Last edited by: jkhayc: Mar 16, 20 17:24
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Re: Dirty T - exciting startlist, who wins? [jkhayc] [ In reply to ]
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Thanks. I like the rational from the local insider!
I think they should have the bike/run set up as an actual race with a TT start based on swim times. Then have the run from the base of the climb.
I don't know how Kanute descends. I imagine not as well as Benny and Rudy. But I also assume he'll have the best pool swim time.
Are you going to time or live stream any of this? (from a distance of course)

And no offense to Lagerstrom, he's going to be in the mix for the podium, for sure.
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Re: Dirty T - exciting startlist, who wins? [oprfcc] [ In reply to ]
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realistically, there's probably no way this happens. for a variety of reasons.

fun to imagine and talk about though
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Re: Dirty T - exciting startlist, who wins? [jkhayc] [ In reply to ]
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Hey guys quick update!

The CDC has asked no gatherings larger than 10 people for the next 15 days. (till March 31)

If they lift that rule after the 31st we will 100% do the event.
if they don't. We still plan to do this event with a couple locals that we will obey the rules of a group small than 10.
Worst case scenario it will be a solo hard training day with Lionel and maybe Ben H or Sam Long.
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Re: Dirty T - exciting startlist, who wins? [talbotcox] [ In reply to ]
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Tucson also closed all it's pools, gyms, health clubs etc today through the end of March.

Maybe a duathlon instead?

#MDGA Make Duathlon Great Again

Besides we all know triathlon is where people who are afraid of pain and suffering go bc they sure don't do duathlon a second time!

Brian Stover USAT LII
Accelerate3 Coaching
Insta

Last edited by: desert dude: Mar 17, 20 17:13
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