Give me a break...You should be thankful that Macca talks crap, this sport doesn't have enough characters in it, especially regarding Kona. If they do ONE more special interest story I am going to puke. It's great that this is a life long dream of a lot of people, but HEY it is also the world championship! Let's get some coverage of Macca talking smack from last year, and all his quotes this year, and then focus on a rivalry so other people get into this. How boring is it to watch anything else. Macca is going to be a saviour of this sport because he has an interesting character. Is it fun to have someone win this thing 10 times in a row? NO. Who cares at that point. It's fun when the Arizona Diamondbacks beat the Yankees because no one is expecting it. It's even more fun when someone on the team says George Steinbrenner is washed up and that we're going to bury the Yanks.

Macca has the best chance of winning, because he puts pressure on himself. Triathlon is the MOST selfish sport in the world, with the most selfish people doing it (including me). SO good that someone actually says what the rest of us are thinking... Tell me that the last time you were building your bike before a race and you were looking around thinking to yourself "man, that person looks way faster than me... I Suck" NEVER (i hope)... You're saying "I've trained harder than all here, and I'm going to win this whole thing by 40 minutes!"

Go out and win the whole thing Macca... .

The order will be:

Men: Peter Reid; Tim DeBoom; Cam Brown; Lothar Leder

Women: Lori Bowden; Heather Fuhr; Natasha Badman; Lisa Bentley

Larsen will be first to T2 (Men)

Badman will (barely) be first to T2 (Women)

I will be the one with the Canadian flag.

What kind of Canadian are you??? How about Dave Harju and Tom Evans?

I can't believe no one has mentioned Stefan Holzner. That guy is great.

1. Holzner
2. DeBoom
3. Leder
4. Diviney ....Who?

1. Bentley
2. Badmann
3. Gollnick

Unfortunatly Dr. Tom Evans will not be racing Kona this year.

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Shawn Skene

Not racing this year but my predictions are;

1. Leder

2. Brown

3. Bell

4. Hellriegel

5. Larsen



I also think there will be some less known athletes that plays a big part in the race, maybe some of the Belgians who are very strong.

I´m not very up to date on the womens race but a not too wild guess would be that Badmann and Kraft will fight for the top spot.

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BA coaching http://www.bjornandersson.se

This is a terrific thread. I hope it stays alive just for the sake of a good discussion. Here are a few random thoughts after reading four pages worth of posts.

1. I don't think Spencer Smith qualified this year. Am I wrong?

2. I don't think Macca's preparation was perfect (as one poster said). This will be his third Ironman of the season, along with a couple halfs. That's a lot of distance for the legs to be fresh late in the marathon (and after a killer ride).

3. Reid hasn't seemed "on" this year.

4. Luc van Lierde may race conservatively to get his name in the spotlight again. There were some sponsorship headaches for him last year. Even though he won IM Malaysia, he may feel the need to be solid, consistent, and FINISH here rather than going for broke. Top 5? I hope so, at the very least!

5. There are supposed to be some other strong Belgians out there... Beke and Vanhoenacker (sp?) could light it up.

6. All of which could leave the door open for DeBoom again, or a wildcard stealing the whole show.

Pity some of the other top names from this year like Tissink and Bjorn aren't racing...

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http://www.endurancesports.ca
Coaching and Training Camps

MEN:
1) DeBoom
2) McCormack
3) Brown
4) Bell
5) Reid
6) Hellreigel
7) Ledar
8) Larsen

I'm not too sure about Reid though, and if LVL has a great race (which I doubt will happen) he could crack top 5 (my bet is on him replacing Reid for #5).

For the women I"m going with Badman

For the record I'm also predicting a 2:45 winning marathon time, with an overall of around 8:15-8:20.

 There are supposed to be some other strong Belgians out there... Beke and Vanhoenacker (sp?) could light it up

You're absolutely right. There will be some strong Belgians in Kona this year besides Luc Van Lierde, especially Rutger Beke, he doesn't run, he flies!!

Saw Heather Fuhr at a local Olympic today. She smoked an otherwise pedestrian field as was expected. I was ,however, very impressed by how lean and fit she looked compared to past years. She's always been an extraordinary athlete but what I saw today was a whole 'nuther level. She's definitely turned it up to 11.

Gary (Kona '03 volunteer) Mc

[reply]Karin Thürig will be racing in Hawaii. But it is not her main focus. She will do the TT worls in a week (October 8th) in Hamilton CA. Ten days later she will start in Hawaii:
http://www.karinthuerig.ch/Seite/Wettkampfdaten2003.htm[/reply]

Karin Thürig was 4th in the Womes TT WC last Wednesday. She was only 0.88s behind 3rd on a course that was better for lighter riders (hilly). I wonder how fast she is compared to Natascha Badmann. Last year she was about 4 minutes slower if I remember right.
Felix

Tom Evans and Dave Harju are both listed as participants at IM Florida. Are they both doing Hawaii too? I noticed that there are 43 MPRO competitors at Florida with some pretty well known names so it should be a great race too..... provided they are not entered as a "maybe if I crash and burn at Hawaii" type of thing. Three weeks between the two makes a double with any hope at a successful second race pretty unrealistic.

Give me a break...You should be thankful that Macca talks crap, this sport doesn't have enough characters in it, especially regarding Kona. If they do ONE more special interest story I am going to puke.

That made me chuckle. Triathlon is not alone is this regard. The olympic coverage is similar, but obviously the caliber of athletes they cover is entirely different.

The media ia obviously trying to target a larger audience, but you have a great point. I wonder what folks would think if they could just hear Macca saying "I know I can win." Might make people (aside from trigeeks) curious as to whether he can live up to his words.

Justin D

But you raise a good question. What would it be worth for a new pro (or cyclist convert) to go put down a new course record. That's at least a year's worth of marketing as 'the fastest bike in Kona'. I wonder what that would be worth to a bike company. With some of the support guys on the domestic cycling teams riding for chump change, an extra $20K(?) in October wouldn't be half bad. Float the swim, smoke the bike, shuffle the run to a finish. Even if it was only the fastest bike split for the year it would make for good marketing text. Any thoughts on how much this is worth?

Don't want to see this thread die

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Shawn Skene

I'm predicting a mens' race for the history books tomorrow--competitive and fast, with a superfast bike leg driven by non-Germans. My Top Ten picks:



#1 Cameron Brown (breakthrough race after years of solid results, gutsy bike leg--he stayed within striking distance of the mad bikers, while DeBoom & Reid let them go--makes the difference, LVL's course record in jeopardy for most of the day but still standing at the finish line)

#2 Chris McCormack (led for a long spell until Larsen flew by, moved back into lead on run when a piano appeared on Larsen's back, but couldn't hold off Cam near the end)

#3 Tim DeBoom (comes from way, way back but can't catch Chris & Cam, cautious bike leg kills his chances for a 3-peat)

#4 Peter Reid (also makes time on the run, but should've biked harder--which he's capable of)

#5 Luke Bell (my long shot pick, will be a future IM Hawaii winner, just 24 y.o.)

#6 Steve Larsen (first off the bike with a new bike record, fades during run but still finishes with a solid result)

#7 Jurgen Zack (surprises everyone by NOT hammering the bike, solid run)

#8 Thomas Hellreigel (looks tired all day, raced too much in '03, from a fan's POV I prefer Hell-on-Wheels to Thomas the thoughtful racer)

#9 Chris Leito (hell of a bike leg, hung with Larsen longer than anyone except McCormack, fades on run but should still be happy with top ten)

#10 Lothar Leder (never in contention for win, also raced too much in '03, has the talent to win here but for some reason never does)



?? Michael Lovato (won Idaho, coached by Dave Scott, possible star of the future, could surprise with top ten)

?? Norman Stadler (hasn't looked good for a few years, overtrained? Injured?)

?? Francois Chabaud (French guy who had a barely-noticed fantastic IM Hawaii result in '02)

?? Stefan Holzner (beat Zack & Hellriegel at IM Germany, probably peaked then)



DNF: Luc Van Lierde (this guy's made of glass)



The 45-49 AG race looks interesting (my AG, I'd be happy to be within 90 minutes of the winner here).



For the women, I'm predicting a dull race. Natascha will bike like a demon and that will be that. Lots of fast Canadian chicks on the marathon fighting for the podium the only drama here.



William Hein

in chilly Vermont wishing I was in warm Kona, at least for tomorrow...

Now that is a freakin' prediction!

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___________________________
And the road gets rocky along the way
But if it gets too smooth, it's time to call it a day
-Kinks

After he gets these all right, he is going to open the IM psychic network and there will be no need for the pros to ever race again. He will be put on the IM payroll as this will save them a lot of money.

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Frank,
An original Ironman and the Inventor of PowerCranks

I say Brown is the man

OK - my predictions for the Men's race were off quite a bit - only picked one of the top 5 (although my long shot did take 9th). Women were a bit better - I think 4 of top 5 and my long shot there took 7th.

And my age group pick for the bike leg was only 2 minutes slower than Peter Reid's bike split and he beat quite a few pros overall....including Macca!

How's everyone do in their Nostradamos picks?