At least he didn't win that race. Doubt he drafted the year he did win if they knew about it the year before, but don't know. Should be a record somewhere as this race was on Wide World of Sports by then.

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Frank,
An original Ironman and the Inventor of PowerCranks

I agree. Take Scott and Allen out of the picture, because they were truly amazing and fast. That's why they both won six times. Once you do that, I DON'T think the times are so much slower today. I think the conditions from year to year change dramatically.

Everyone says look at LVL in 1996, that was the same year Hellreigel set the bike record at 4:24 and finished second at 8:06. Six others were under 4:35 on the bike that year. The next year Hellreigel won in 8:33 with a 4:48 bike split (it must have been because he changed his style that year - you know he held back on the bike to win it on the run).

In 1992 when Allen ran 8:09, Christian Bustos and Pauli Kiuru ran 8:16, 8:17. Not to take anything away, but it might have had something to do with the conditions.

Now for the predictions:

Tim "must not have held back too much on the bike" Deboom (2nd in 2000, 1st in 2001, 1st in 2002)

Badman - ( she kicks everyones butt with a huge grin on her face ) and will do it again

If it's really hot - then the uber bikers melt again and the runners take it for sure. If it is mild, then the uber bikers might have a chance.

then how come we continue to see the WR marathon split be lowered? I don't think it's that Dave and Mark were that much better than anyone else can ever be (though they were certainly amazing). I think it's the Win factor that someone mentioned earlier. the pro's go to win, not to lay it all on the line. That's the part that I find mildlly offensive, but then I'm not trying to put food on the table by racing either. I race to see what I'm made of, maybe if I had any chance of actually winning something I'd feel differently. That's why I choose:

Macca & Lori

OK, neither may actually win, but they embody what I want to see more of in our sport. I'd love to see LVL lay down another incredible time, but I doubt it will happen. If I were putting money on it, I'd go w/ deBoom. His run is top notch, he knows how to close it down. Macca however is my hope for the sports future. I believe if he can make good on his big mouth (or is that just confidence) that he'll usher in a new level of IM racing.

As for Lori, I really love seeing Natascha smile as she crosses the line. She is a gracious winner and I wish her no ill will. But Lori's been chasing her down for years. Lori has proved herself with some incredible times (last years sub 9 at austria!). Couple that with not doing IMC this year, makes me believe she's put it all on the line for Kona. And that get's my support, win or lose.

I think Dave and Mark were so fast because they had to be to win. They were two really well matched and very good athletes who knew if they let up for a minute that the other would take it away from them. Since then there hasn't been that level of coompetitiveness so one can race tactically, and still win.

I think those days are coming to an end. The more good athletes there are the more we can expect to see more races like Dave and Mark gave us. This year, my bet is on Chris and Steve. But, there are tons of others (and at 150 lbs each that is quite a number) who might decide to be there also. It only takes two to push the times down. We will see.

The women have aways to go to match the depth of the men but they are getting there. This year should be much closer.

Frank

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Frank,
An original Ironman and the Inventor of PowerCranks

funny how noone mentions the fact that drafting was not really enforced these years...
after all didn't Allen say thank you all for the ride when he caught Hellriegel in 95 closing a 13' deficit...
there is no reason to believe it was different the years before.
like Roth was for many years (this year was very fast and still 20' off the best time and noone running low 2h40')
Like the old IM Japan where the strategy was, get out of the water first and stay behind the van...

Even though allen and scott were super fast, I am fairly convinced the reason is the laxism as far as drafting is concerned in these years...

the 4h48' of Paula is no exception...Natasha B. Karin Thurig are much better riders and do not come anywhere near this time...

You might very well be right that the rules are just tighter now that it is a bigger deal, accounting for some of the faster times of the past. However, it will be interesting to see what happens if the weather is ever ok again in Kona. The last two years have been horrendous weatherwise. Good weather, fast field, close race = fast times. I feel SL and, possibly Macca, are capable, right now, of a 4:20 bike (or faster) and sub 3 hour run if the wind would cooperate. TDB (or anyone else) cannot make up a 4:45 bike split, if they do that, regardless of how fast they are on the run.

The weather is the big IF in this comparing race times debate. HOT seems constant. Wind is quite variable. Or, maybe, Dave and Mark are like Bob Beamon long jumping 27 feet, and it taking the rest of the world 20 years to catch up to him/them.

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Frank,
An original Ironman and the Inventor of PowerCranks

"but he and Spencer Smith are marked men by the officials now"

Is there any truth to that? I mean is there such a thing as marked men by officials? I would be interested to hear from the officials on that one. Am I naive or should the counter be set to Zero at the start of each race?

How come no one is picking Heather Gollnick for atleast a spot in the top 3? After her smoking win at wildflower, then IM CDA and Wisconsin, I would bet she will be up there.

Good weather, fast field, close race = fast times. I feel SL and, possibly Macca, are capable, right now, of a 4:20 bike (or faster) and sub 3 hour run if the wind would cooperate. TDB (or anyone else) cannot make up a 4:45 bike split, if they do that, regardless of how fast they are on the run.




uh, if the weather is good enough to make larsen and mccormack 15 minutes faster, don't you think the other top guys will be 15 minutes faster as well?

Re: Heather G. I don't think 6 - 7 weeks is enough recovery for a top performance in an IM. This is her Kona experience year. She may surprise us but, for sure, wait until next year.

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Frank,
An original Ironman and the Inventor of PowerCranks

Let's not forget Peter Reid. He won two years in a row in Kona, and came second last year after minimal training. Remember that he overtrained in 2001, and I'm sure he'll be in the thick of things. Predictions:

Hot day:

1. Reid

2. DeBoom

3. Brown



Cool day (this one is way too hard to call.. I'm guessing one of these three will get it...)

Reid/Macca/Larsen (pick 'em)

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Pain is temporary. Pride is forever.

Top 5.. (not in any order because I feel the mens race is wide open this year)

Men; Reid, Deboom, Leder, Macca, Brown [all the obvious choices]

dark horses.. Luc VL, Spencer S., Larsen

Women; Badmann, Bowden, Kraft, Fuhr, Keller-can you really count her out of the top 5..??

dark horses.. Bently, Bella Comford, PNF-we all would like to see that!!

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"Nobody is an atheist the last 6 miles of an Ironman"

Excellent point, Francois.

Its gunna be an Aussie onslaught this year in the mens...........M A C C A
I would like to see the race ala Roth style however....that would be fantastic viewing

I don't understand the argument that the weather favours the runners - wouldn't the cyclists have a very strong advantage on a windy day? And doesn't the heat toast everybody equally?

yep, the more wind, the more advantage for the big riders.
if it's hot, it does not favor runners of bikers, it favors those who like it...

You are right. I think Larsen thinks a hot windy day favors him. He gets discounted because he failed 2 years ago, when it was hot and windy, because he faded on the run. But he blames that on problems of swallowing water on the swim screwing everything up as the race went on and not to going too hard on the bike. Prevent that and no fade and Larsen would have won that race.

I was thinking more to fast times than relative tactical advantage.

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Frank,
An original Ironman and the Inventor of PowerCranks

[reply]"but who can match her bike? "

How quickly we forget. The fastest female bike time ever was Paula Newby-Fraser in 1993, not Natasha as many believe.[/reply]

But the quote "but who can match her bike? " was for this year race. This year there is probably only Karin Thürig who can match (or come close) to Badmanns bike time.
Because Karin Thürig concentrated on cycling this year (she does TT worlds 10 days before Hawaii) she will be strong on the bike. But her swim is slow and she is not the fastest runner. I expect her again in Top10.

Felix

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http://www.weilenmann.ch.vu

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And the road gets rocky along the way
But if it gets too smooth, it's time to call it a day
-Kinks

Men: Deboom, Reid, Brown, Leder, Hellregel....Macca, Larsen? DeBoom has been in top form early in season. Others are consistent. The bikers will probably lose it on the run, depending on how smart they are with their pace.

Women: Badmann, Kraft, Bowden, Bentley, Fuhr.... Gollnick?(she did IMWI, may not be 100%) Bentley and Kraft have stepped up their game this year. Bowden is concentrating on Kona.

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SUPPORT OPERATION REBOUND:
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Kestrel Syndicate
Macca Fan Club

the salty water is indeed a major problem...
however when Larsen says he didn't go hard enough on the bike (I remember him saying "I need to get out of my comfort zone on the bike" after IMH)...then what's going to happen is that he will ride again 15' faster than everyone else but will lose "only" 30' on the run instead of 45'...

On the IMH video, you see him going really hard (overtaking Norman for example or PR or LVL)...

if he goes to Kona doing the same, even without salty water the same thing will happen.

You cannot win Hawaii without being a very well balanced triathlete.

We will see what SL can do. I think he realizes it takes a well balanced effort. At LP he had the second fastest run split behind Ryan Bolton on his very first Marathon after taking 10 minutes off the course record on the bike in his very first IM. He was testing the water.

He is a very experienced elite endurance athlete and knows how to judge his effort. With more time under his belt (and a few failures) he should only be better at this "game". Whether he will have an off day or go out too hard (or not hard enough) or whatever excuse is used if he comes in well out of first remains to be seen. I look forward to seeing what he (and Macca) can do this year. The others are "knowns" pretty much. One of the "others" may win the race but what will make this edition especially interesting to me will be in watching how the rabbits do.

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Frank,
An original Ironman and the Inventor of PowerCranks

DeBoom again. Cam Brown a close second. Macca won't feel comfortable for the whole marathon if he tries to break out on the bike.

If I recall..Kraft had a poor race last season, I think she'll bounce back and give Natasha a run. I think it's between them.

An Aussie no one has mentioned is Luke Bell. He's young, finished a respectabe 16th last year and has beaten Tim soundly at a couple of 1/2 IM this year. What's the scoop on him?

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Irony can be humorous, but it does not have to be.

"I've always said that an Ironman is a reflection of your character" - Kevin Moats

Luke Bell - another unknown rabbit type who will make this edition very interesting. SL was VERY impressed by him after Vineman 1/2 where they both broke SL's old course record, only LB did it by more, a lot more. My guess is he is a little young for this race. This race seems to take some maturity to win, but a top 10 is a real possibility.

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Frank,
An original Ironman and the Inventor of PowerCranks