pk wrote:
B_Doughtie wrote:
Most federations cancel the qualification status of the event.
which i think is fine but what annoys me is that duathlons only get 75 percents of the points it makes no sense in my mind. if anything than maybe a 5 percent point deduction would be totally enough and i think it should be 100 percent of tri.
But you need to remember olympic selection has very little to do with points, and more on what a federation considers as giving them indications for the most likely to have a great performance at the olympics. this is why with the ladies race in Tokyo at the test event many countries cancelled or modified auto qualification criteria, since the distances were shorter, and not necessarily indicative of potential over the full distance at the OG. Same with a Du, since every step possible will be taken to avoid the OG race becoming a Du, a top 8 in a Du on the Oly course is not necessarily indicative of potential for a top performance if there is a swim leg, hence why many countries won't want to necessarily auto select based on that. For some countries this is a non issue, since they have a finite number of athletes who could be selected, but for the deeper countries, locking up auto selection is crucial. As a result of this you have different people racing for different reasons, Flora is racing to bust the rust, and to see the course since there's no chance that if she's healthy she doesn't get selected, but then for the US and GB and France, where there will be meritorious athletes that miss out, they need to race for results...
In terms of testing and odds of a swim happening. For an event like the OG or test event, they are likely doing extra testing to be sure about conditions and exploring approaches to ensure decent water. We'll get a better sense of whether a swim is likely based on the familiarizations on Wednesday. There should also be water quality results in the briefing tomorrow evening (which are usually posted to the world tri website shortly thereafter). A storm 4 days out is not necessarily as death sentence for an Urban swim, the way it would be 48hrs out, but we'll have to see how the water rebounds afterwards. With a sunday storm, I would probably test the water Monday afternoon so that results could be ready before the Tuesday briefings, and possibly test again Tuesday...
In terms of picks, it's tough to say. You've got a mix of people who have largely focused on the test event and haven't raced as much, as well as those who have raced a lot as well, so it's tricky to predict who's legs are going to show up in Paris... I suspect it will largely be the usual suspects sniffing around the podium, but there might be a few surprises in the top 10, that could snag spots for the games that will make the next 10 months very interesting...