mlegrand wrote:
Ok, I've loved watching Kona each October and it's disappointing that we won't get to see it happen this year. But who do you think would have won it had they been able to race in 2020? Who do you think would have made the podium on the men's side and the women's?
Here are my picks:
Women's 1. Daniela Ryf
2. Lucy Charles
3. Heather Jackson
Men's 1. Alister Brownlee
2. Lionel Sanders
3. Codey Beals
Went ahead and watched your analysis. IMHO, your analysis is jumbled between what actually happened this year and what hypothetically could happen at Kona. For example you highlight Cam Wurf as a strong pick but his focus on cycling. Don't you think if there was a triathlon season that maybe his focus wouldn't be cycling. Or Frodeno, if there is a triathlon season, maybe Frodeno doesn't crash. I am curious why you focus on Jan Frodeno's injury as why not to pick him, yet you don't focus on some of the more public mental struggles both Lionel and Cody (it is spelled Cody btw you have it wrong in your video as well) have faced and expressed in their posts. Nor do you highlight both athletes rather disappointing races last year, albeit a mechanical for Cody. After Halvard (may be misspelling) comments in the early thread on the uber cyclists at Kona and being blinded by his Norwegianism, it gets a little frustrating to see people blinded by their heart instead of being realistic. I am assuming you have some sort of Canadian allegiance. Fwiw, in the last 15 years Canada has 1 podium, and you think they are going to pull a double?
Also fwiw, Cody went DNF (Kona), Flat (literally) (Campeche 70.3 Mexico), Flat (figuratively) (Canadian WC just a few weeks back) in last races. His latest race being quite a disappointing race where he got beat by guys he has routinely beat in recent years. I know it has to be frustrating for him. I noticed in the Ironman recap last year they highlighted just a few athletes last year as they do every year. For some reason they highlighted Cody. Cody is an awesome athlete, but given his results in the race there is no reason he should have been featured - very much out of place with tradition. Seemed more like it was good old nepotism with Ventum, the official bike course sponsor and I believe the only male pro athlete riding the bike. But what gets me, is you know Heather, Paula, etc know how this race is won. Cody isn't the type of athlete that I would predict can do well at Kona because Cody's entire race strategy is pace not race. There is nothing wrong with that. It is smart, but you are never going to win the race pacing, unless your pacing is at the front of the race. I could argue that is exactly what Frodeno did. Can you run on to the podium these days with a conservative bike ride from second / third swim pack??? I think those days are gone. Chris L had a great race last year and finished 10th I think doing his own race sort of. But Cody hasn't even done a single Kona race and you expect him to run onto the podium with the likes of Frodeno, Lange, Gomez, Brownlee and the more experienced guys like Hoffman, TO, Kienle. Just an absurd pick.
The jury is out on Lionel. I didn't really follow his race last year so I don't have much to say about it but Lionel's races are going to depend so much by what happens on the bike. You can never count out his grit and determination. There is nobody I would I love to see win Kona more than Lionel but I do wonder if Lionel is the Raelert of this generation.
Alistair (Yes it is Alistair). I think that could be a decent pick but it would violate that the winner comes from the previous 4. If there was anyone to violate that rule, Ali could be the guy given his pedigree. I could see a Gomez too. But Ali's race was pretty disappointing. Of all the guys out there, I think back to the debut and I think of Crowie finishing 2nd in his debut and then winning it the next year.
If you were to ask me for picks with momentum and how this year would have played out I would say it probably finishes the exact same as last year on the men's side. Although, I think Sebi has more momentum than TO so I might flip that around and put it Jan, Lange, Sebi for a 1, 2, 3 German sweep. I am giving Lange the benefit of the doubt that it was a fluke last year and he was sick and that he hasn't spent too much time with his eye off the ball in the sponsorship/media distraction to do the required work. Wurf has good momentum and improvement as well but it is hard to see him having the goods on the run
On the Women's side I am going to have to go with Ryf, Haug, Charles-Barclay. Ryf won Hawaii in 2018 with the jelly stings. Not sure what happened last year. I would be inclined not to bet against Ryf if it was just a fluke although admittedly I didn't really follow what happened with her race and lead-up. She is only 33.
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