Login required to started new threads

Login required to post replies

Prev Next
Re: Do you think the CDC is lying to make the numbers look bad, or do you think some politicians/media are lying to make the numbers look good? [Francois] [ In reply to ]
Quote | Reply
Francois wrote:
The short of your post: you think it's a hoax.

Gotcha.


That is not at all what I said. Nice job CNN

I said the implementation of any sort of plan is bullshit.
Quote Reply
Re: Do you think the CDC is lying to make the numbers look bad, or do you think some politicians/media are lying to make the numbers look good? [jharris] [ In reply to ]
Quote | Reply
For the record, I can understand the frustration in getting results back. The states are receiving less funding for testing from the federal government and most states are strained for testing. Hospitals sub to labs and most labs are slammed with those. And getting covid results is just one thing they have added to everything else. The entire infrastructure is strained.

But don’t make the underestimate the severity. We have discussed that in many threads. Mild for covid isn’t mild for the cold or even a flu. If you did have it and it was minimal then good for you. Be happy about that. You won’t have permanent lung or heart damage. And if you don’t know anyone who had it then consider yourself doubly lucky.
Quote Reply
Re: Do you think the CDC is lying to make the numbers look bad, or do you think some politicians/media are lying to make the numbers look good? [jharris] [ In reply to ]
Quote | Reply
jharris wrote:
I think all around it’s bullshit. It’s bullshit in the sense that what the CDC wants to happen isn’t possible as the implementation sucks. Further, the numbers get tweaked and yeah, I agree from a Trumps point of view that the numbers look worse than reality for many reasons that I won’t get into.

I called in May when I had headaches for a week. It was a weird headache as it felt like a hangover. Some people were claiming a COVID takes on similarities to altitude sickness which has a similar type of headache. Ok, get tested like the CDC asks me to do. I call the doctor and also look online. Lots of “run around” and difficulty. Doctor won’t let me come in. They call me back on the phone and I talk to a nurse. I tell them about the headaches and they tell me I can’t get tested. Why not? They tell me to quarantine for 14 days. Oh, yeah- ok. You can’t confirm it’s COVID, but I’m suppose to stay at home for 14 days?

Fast forward to last week. I was sick. Had many symptoms on the list for COVID. I was home for 3 days. I go online and answer questions and I qualify for a test. I find a testing site a CVS pharmacy in the drive-thru. I take the test. I’m at day 11 and I don’t have results yet. What a fricking joke. I’ve isolated myself for 11 days and I don’t have results. It’s bullshit.

I am suppose to worry about everyone else, that’s what “they” want us to do. So, I stay at home and yet it’s a bunch of games on getting an answer.

In the meantime, I don’t know a single person that has had COVID. Yet, this was going to kill us all back in March/April. Numbers show more people die in car accidents and we all drive around. If I did have a COVID, it was a 3 day crappy cold. It wasn’t worth shutting down the world. At least from my point of view. Yeah, yeah, save a Grandma... whatever, I’ve heard it all.

Until your last paragraph, I largely agree with you. And you should be upset with how the government, including the CDC, messed up the testing program. I won’t bore everyone with all the details again, but there were a litany of errors. And we completely squandered the lockdown period to get on top of the virus, set up contact tracing, not reopen too early (especially indoor dining and bars), etc.

Your last paragraph just makes you look unintelligent and insensitive. And if you want the economy back, take a look at Germany. A population of 83 million averaging about 500 cases a day (not Taiwan-level good but still pretty damn good), and their services index has seen a sharp V-shaped recovery. Bottom line: if we want the economy back quickly, we need the pandemic under control in this country. It would be a good start if everyone would just quit their stupid bickering and wear a mask indoors in public.
Quote Reply
Re: Do you think the CDC is lying to make the numbers look bad, or do you think some politicians/media are lying to make the numbers look good? [J_R] [ In reply to ]
Quote | Reply
J_R wrote:
I'll side with the one who allows the data to be publicly available.

X 2
Quote Reply
Re: Do you think the CDC is lying to make the numbers look bad, or do you think some politicians/media are lying to make the numbers look good? [Francois] [ In reply to ]
Quote | Reply
I am trying, really, to understand comments like these. Not a troll.

The 2018 flu season took nearly 80K lives. We are still under double that with covid. Yes, more people are dying than the flu: many old and many with comorbidities.

For me, a pandemic would be somewhere around an order of magnitude worse than a flu season. We are not there. So where is the line in the sand for people?

Also, I must have missed how we know that there is permanent damage occurring when we are months into a novel virus. Is it because scans reveal damage that is similar/same to damage seen elsewhere that is known to not heal?

PS: i wear a mask.

Again, I am not a troll. This site is filled with intelligent people, but I think the world has gone crazy...
Last edited by: beatle: Jul 17, 20 4:45
Quote Reply
Re: Do you think the CDC is lying to make the numbers look bad, or do you think some politicians/media are lying to make the numbers look good? [beatle] [ In reply to ]
Quote | Reply
beatle wrote:

For me, a pandemic would be somewhere around an order of magnitude worse than a flu season. We are not there. So where is the line in the sand for people?

How many people do you think would be dead by now if we had continued life as normal?

Did you see the mortality rate in N Italy when the hospitals were overwhelmed?

So, give us your best informed guess of US deaths under a scenario of no change in societal behavior. What order of magnitude over flu season deaths will convince you?
Quote Reply
Re: Do you think the CDC is lying to make the numbers look bad, or do you think some politicians/media are lying to make the numbers look good? [beatle] [ In reply to ]
Quote | Reply
Ok. Fair. Let me try to explain as well as I can. If things continue as they’re going, we will probably hit around 250,000 deaths. It’s mid July. We were hoping for some seasonality and there is none. We are still losing 1,000 a day.

Also, the number of deaths for the flu are largely overestimated for a variety of reasons (if RChung is reading this, I hope he chimes in) whereas we know that deaths due to COVID19 are largely underestimated. Typically to have an accurate count we will need to compare with baseline over the same period, averaged over previous years. There are a couple of studies already and we may be missing anywhere between 30 and 50pct of those dying from COVID19.

Assuming about 20pct of the population gets the disease and 20pct of these are mild, we can then expect roughly 3-4M people after the first season of pandemic to have lifelong complications with cardiomyopathies and limited lung functions among other things (also clotting, organ failure etc).

The strain on the healthcare system would be enormous.
Quote Reply
Re: Do you think the CDC is lying to make the numbers look bad, or do you think some politicians/media are lying to make the numbers look good? [Kay Serrar] [ In reply to ]
Quote | Reply
No clue about what would happen if nothing was done. Hypotheticals are endless.

Many people have taken some precautions even though the numbers are showing it is not that bad if you are young and healthy. Yes, some of that population does die, etc.

I expect people to act reasonably but we live in a country with, what, 2/3 of people are overweight so people are not acting reasonably with respect to their health already. That is a bit of a tangent but why are we not hearing about ways to personally mitigate a compromised immune system: healthy weight, exercise, vitamin d, etc?

Seriously, I am not in tune with the media but why is this not happening?

I did not see what the mortality rate was when the hospitals were overwhelmed? Care to inform me?

I stated above: for me a pandemic would be coined when we are around one order of magnitude (about ten times) over a flu season.

I personally would like a more nuanced approach. Kids 0-14 are experiencing less deaths by about a factor of 10 from covid compared to flu. I need to look at the numbers again, but I wouldnt be surprised if under 45 years old, covid is less deadly than the flu or at least similar. Quarrantine the most vulnerable. Send the stimulus check disproportionately to them (maybe havent thought about this) and let the rest of us get on with it.
Quote Reply
Re: Do you think the CDC is lying to make the numbers look bad, or do you think some politicians/media are lying to make the numbers look good? [Francois] [ In reply to ]
Quote | Reply
Francois wrote:
Ok. Fair. Let me try to explain as well as I can. If things continue as they’re going, we will probably hit around 250,000 deaths. It’s mid July. We were hoping for some seasonality and there is none. We are still losing 1,000 a day.

Also, the number of deaths for the flu are largely overestimated for a variety of reasons (if RChung is reading this, I hope he chimes in) whereas we know that deaths due to COVID19 are largely underestimated. Typically to have an accurate count we will need to compare with baseline over the same period, averaged over previous years. There are a couple of studies already and we may be missing anywhere between 30 and 50pct of those dying from COVID19.

Assuming about 20pct of the population gets the disease and 20pct of these are mild, we can then expect roughly 3-4M people after the first season of pandemic to have lifelong complications with cardiomyopathies and limited lung functions among other things (also clotting, organ failure etc).

The strain on the healthcare system would be enormous.


Thank you. This gives me something to look into. It is crazy if flu deaths are over reported as you say. I mean we have been having flus for a long time. And if covid is underreported, yup bad news.

I am extremely skeptical of medical studies. I admit. I am trained in a "hard science" and I have read many medical journal articles through the years and the methodology is well different.

edit: my understanding is that we are trying to "break the curve" in terms of not getting the hospitals overwhelmed. I am down with that.

Our personal healthcare is in tatters, our healthcare system is not able to handle this as well if what people are saying is true. (I live in one of the places that is supposed to be a spike, but the locals are saying they still have room for more patients??) What happens when we do have a virus that is an order of magnitude worse?
Last edited by: beatle: Jul 17, 20 5:08
Quote Reply
Re: Do you think the CDC is lying to make the numbers look bad, or do you think some politicians/media are lying to make the numbers look good? [Kay Serrar] [ In reply to ]
Quote | Reply
I think (assuming you do not think they lied about the past) the CDC has records for prior year flu statistics, and in a general sense the death rate from seasonal flu is roughly between 25,000 and 60,000 per year. So assuming your system of order of magnitude then 600,000 would that convince you? seems like a high bar? but alrady we have you at 138,000 and as Francois says there is reason to believe that death may be under reported, and finally there is the long term health impairment that is possibly caused by CODID-19... how will that be factored in.
Quote Reply
Re: Do you think the CDC is lying to make the numbers look bad, or do you think some politicians/media are lying to make the numbers look good? [s5100e] [ In reply to ]
Quote | Reply
Pandemic is a big word for me. Yup, factor of ten over flu does it.

Love to see links to under-reported cases.

Love to see links to long term health damage.
Quote Reply
Re: Do you think the CDC is lying to make the numbers look bad, or do you think some politicians/media are lying to make the numbers look good? [beatle] [ In reply to ]
Quote | Reply
I’m trained in mathematics and informatics. And many others like me moved to biomedical research. There is an explicit NIH funding mechanism to help folks from quantitative sciences transition to biomedical sciences. There is a lot of top notch science. And some not so good. And the same is true with hard science.

I suppose the issue is dealing with the uncertainty of the results of a study since it often times comes with some P-value and CI. That’s why studies are replicated.
Quote Reply
Re: Do you think the CDC is lying to make the numbers look bad, or do you think some politicians/media are lying to make the numbers look good? [beatle] [ In reply to ]
Quote | Reply
beatle wrote:
Pandemic is a big word for me. Yup, factor of ten over flu does it.

Love to see links to under-reported cases.

Love to see links to long term health damage.

If we didn’t change our behavior AT ALL (still normal use of public transport, air travel, indoor sports arenas, concert halls, offices, restaurants, bars, etc.), then assuming 50% of the population contracted the virus, and a conservative 1% death rate (Northern Italy’s was double digits), then you’re looking at about 1.6 million deaths in the US. Those are conservative numbers. If 60% contracted the virus and the death rate was 3% (because hospitals are overwhelmed), then that would equate to about 6 million deaths in the US, or about 150 times an average 40k flu season.
Quote Reply
Re: Do you think the CDC is lying to make the numbers look bad, or do you think some politicians/media are lying to make the numbers look good? [beatle] [ In reply to ]
Quote | Reply
 
"Love to see links to long term health damage." not hard to search for secondary issues of COVID but for link to long term damage... wait maybe 2 years (important to note in the sentence the words Long Term) then look for links to this. We need what is called an abundance of caution concept here, it is too late 2 years from now when people start showing up with heart conditions, strokes, etc etc.... that might have been avoided if the disease was not allowed to spread at will.
Quote Reply
Re: Do you think the CDC is lying to make the numbers look bad, or do you think some politicians/media are lying to make the numbers look good? [jharris] [ In reply to ]
Quote | Reply
jharris wrote:
I think all around it’s bullshit. It’s bullshit in the sense that what the CDC wants to happen isn’t possible as the implementation sucks. Further, the numbers get tweaked and yeah, I agree from a Trumps point of view that the numbers look worse than reality for many reasons that I won’t get into.

I called in May when I had headaches for a week. It was a weird headache as it felt like a hangover. Some people were claiming a COVID takes on similarities to altitude sickness which has a similar type of headache. Ok, get tested like the CDC asks me to do. I call the doctor and also look online. Lots of “run around” and difficulty. Doctor won’t let me come in. They call me back on the phone and I talk to a nurse. I tell them about the headaches and they tell me I can’t get tested. Why not? They tell me to quarantine for 14 days. Oh, yeah- ok. You can’t confirm it’s COVID, but I’m suppose to stay at home for 14 days?

Fast forward to last week. I was sick. Had many symptoms on the list for COVID. I was home for 3 days. I go online and answer questions and I qualify for a test. I find a testing site a CVS pharmacy in the drive-thru. I take the test. I’m at day 11 and I don’t have results yet. What a fricking joke. I’ve isolated myself for 11 days and I don’t have results. It’s bullshit.

I am suppose to worry about everyone else, that’s what “they” want us to do. So, I stay at home and yet it’s a bunch of games on getting an answer.

In the meantime, I don’t know a single person that has had COVID. Yet, this was going to kill us all back in March/April. Numbers show more people die in car accidents and we all drive around. If I did have a COVID, it was a 3 day crappy cold. It wasn’t worth shutting down the world. At least from my point of view. Yeah, yeah, save a Grandma... whatever, I’ve heard it all.

I share your frustration on the way we have dealt with the pandemic.

It is bullshit that we in the US don't have readily available testing and much, much quicker turnaround time on those tests.

It is bullshit that we can't see to get the numbers straight.

On the severity, of the case you think you might have had, it is clear that people have great variations in their symptoms to contracting COVID. It is bullshit that nearly 140,000 people in the country have died from it.

It is bullshit that we in this country have had such an awful ability to to some basic things like wear a mask, social distance and respond to this pandemic in a nonpolitical way.

I blame all of this bullshit on our politicians- the President, some of the Governors and Mayors, but mostly the President- who from the start have acted like this a hoax and not listened to the science and not acted in a manner to fight the virus. That bullshit has resulted in where were are today, with the pandemic still out of control, economic recovery inhibited, and fear and uncertainty about restarting education/sports/life in the fall.

All of this bullshit is owned by Trump. Damn near anyone else would have managed it with more leadership and effort and set us up as a nation to avoid this bullshit.

Suffer Well.
Quote Reply
Re: Do you think the CDC is lying to make the numbers look bad, or do you think some politicians/media are lying to make the numbers look good? [beatle] [ In reply to ]
Quote | Reply
beatle wrote:
Pandemic is a big word for me. Yup, factor of ten over flu does it.


Apparently a little too big of a word for you. A pandemic disease doesn't haven have to be deadly. It just refers to the breadth of geographic area a disease affects - it just means the disease has spread across multiple continents, etc.

So if you're looking for some term to describe the difference in general severity between the flu and the 'vid, you need to look for another term.
Last edited by: trail: Jul 17, 20 6:25
Quote Reply
Re: Do you think the CDC is lying to make the numbers look bad, or do you think some politicians/media are lying to make the numbers look good? [Kay Serrar] [ In reply to ]
Quote | Reply
Thanks for the informative response. I was under the assumption that the virus is going to kill who it will kill other than the cases that are borderline and having a hospital infrastructure not overwhelmed will help those people. So the lock down was to ensure a slow spread, not a no spread.

So your idea is that if we slow it enough, then it will simple stop spreading to the vulnerable and hence we have saved more lives overall?

What is the timeframe for the virus, once caught to remain contagious?

So many confounding variables...



Last edited by: beatle: Jul 17, 20 6:25
Quote Reply
Re: Do you think the CDC is lying to make the numbers look bad, or do you think some politicians/media are lying to make the numbers look good? [trail] [ In reply to ]
Quote | Reply
So the influenza each year is a pandemic?
Quote Reply
Re: Do you think the CDC is lying to make the numbers look bad, or do you think some politicians/media are lying to make the numbers look good? [beatle] [ In reply to ]
Quote | Reply
beatle wrote:
So the influenza each year is a pandemic?

That's correct. The definition of epidemic/pandemic does not involve severity or anything of the sort. It refers to spread. Pan is Greek for all. Demos is people.
Ah. I knew learning Latin and Greek would be useful one day.
Quote Reply
Re: Do you think the CDC is lying to make the numbers look bad, or do you think some politicians/media are lying to make the numbers look good? [s5100e] [ In reply to ]
Quote | Reply
s5100e wrote:

"Love to see links to long term health damage." not hard to search for secondary issues of COVID but for link to long term damage... wait maybe 2 years (important to note in the sentence the words Long Term) then look for links to this. We need what is called an abundance of caution concept here, it is too late 2 years from now when people start showing up with heart conditions, strokes, etc etc.... that might have been avoided if the disease was not allowed to spread at will.

Guess my google fu is not good this morning. I absolutely agree that if there are long term affects for a sizeable portion of those getting covid, which is a large number of people, that is concerning. I can't find any hard numbers on lung scarring cases etc.

So if you think that this is very prevelant, where is the line in the sand for you? Should we remain shut down until there is less than xxx% of the population with covid or ??

I ask because I seem to see, now I am pretty blind at times, people's justification shifting. And it is good and okay to do that in light of good new information.

Just like why i am posting here and not on FB, infact signed out of that, cause you all are pretty smart and I want to understand how you are thinking about this.

Maybe I am just a crusty heart and consider that most (yes some healthy people are dying) of the adults in the country were already quite unhealthy and now the piper is here to be paid.
Quote Reply
Re: Do you think the CDC is lying to make the numbers look bad, or do you think some politicians/media are lying to make the numbers look good? [Francois] [ In reply to ]
Quote | Reply
Thanks. I guess it seems like a charged word. Do you see the media using pandemic when the flu season rolls around? Either way it is tangential to the hard numbers.
Quote Reply
Re: Do you think the CDC is lying to make the numbers look bad, or do you think some politicians/media are lying to make the numbers look good? [Kay Serrar] [ In reply to ]
Quote | Reply
Kay Serrar wrote:
beatle wrote:
Pandemic is a big word for me. Yup, factor of ten over flu does it.

Love to see links to under-reported cases.

Love to see links to long term health damage.


If we didn’t change our behavior AT ALL (still normal use of public transport, air travel, indoor sports arenas, concert halls, offices, restaurants, bars, etc.), then assuming 50% of the population contracted the virus, and a conservative 1% death rate (Northern Italy’s was double digits), then you’re looking at about 1.6 million deaths in the US. Those are conservative numbers. If 60% contracted the virus and the death rate was 3% (because hospitals are overwhelmed), then that would equate to about 6 million deaths in the US, or about 150 times an average 40k flu season.

No way we would hit 50%. The worst case scenario for a pandemic, if you look at the history of pandemics would be just under 25%.
Also, 1% is not necessarily conservative. Estimates are between .6 and 1%. Northern Italy has a much older population, and there may be some variation in strains (although that's still being debated). So a conservative estimate would be that we could see around 20% infection rate (66M) and about around 660,000 deaths give or take, without anything being done. Your numbers aren't conservative.
Quote Reply
Re: Do you think the CDC is lying to make the numbers look bad, or do you think some politicians/media are lying to make the numbers look good? [beatle] [ In reply to ]
Quote | Reply
I'd argue that what the media use is irrelevant. What matters is what scientists and healthcare providers use. The seasonal flu tends to not be a pandemic because it's more a circulating virus that affects regions at separate times during the year. Occasionally, we do get a new strain that affects the entire world at once. That was for instance the case with a new H1N1 strain in 2009, and H2N2 in 1957-58 (which was really bad) and of course the Spanish flu in 1918. Those are all referred to as pandemic since they impact the entire world over the same period of time.
Quote Reply
Re: Do you think the CDC is lying to make the numbers look bad, or do you think some politicians/media are lying to make the numbers look good? [beatle] [ In reply to ]
Quote | Reply
1. They make flu vaccine annually, with some measurable level of success or failure and some measurable level of compliance in getting the vaccine. Covid does not yet.

2. We pretty much know the short term and long term implications of getting the flu. We're daily learning more about Covid. Do you as a person posting on an endurance athletics forum WANT degraded lung performance the rest of your life?

3. What about car accidents? Didn't Neil deGrasse Tyson mention this about mass shootings? Another whataboutism to deflect from the topic at hand, just like Chicago murders. Let's talk both, separately. I won't entertain trolls that like to combine them to suit their own interests. Frankly deGrasse Tyson got it wrong when he implied it was only about the death count. The destruction of our freedom to go to the places in which mass gun violence incidents have occurred without fear or without crazy precautions (like arming everyone) is also a massive problem that he conveniently ignores. Same for Covid. The whataboutisms with the flu and car accidents totally ignores any other implications on daily lives other than death itself.

4. The human body has been exposed to some array of influenza since you've been alive. You probably haven't been exposed to a Covid style virus in your lifetime. So, there may be some kind of built up defense or awareness in biology there that I don't understand that is a positive there.

5. People tend to ignore what they've lived with forever. Racism, poverty, violence, hatred, inequality, the flu, car deaths, etc.....Do we WANT Covid to be like those also? I hear some people in here sounding like they might want that. Just chalk it up as a new "death and daily inconvenience" tally mark.
Quote Reply
Re: Do you think the CDC is lying to make the numbers look bad, or do you think some politicians/media are lying to make the numbers look good? [Francois] [ In reply to ]
Quote | Reply
Thank you again for the reasonable reply.

I have some things to do, but I plan to google some info on long term damage issues etc.

I was avoiding even looking into all this but then the parents in my state started freaking out about their kids getting it. And then people talking about the number of cases skyrocketing. Well there is a ton more testing. Duh. A friend on FB posted "the hospitals are not able to take any more patients..." He linked an article. I read the article and the hospital director stated they have 15% more capacity left. That does not help inform people as to what is really goin on here. I looked and the cdc stated 9 people under 20 years old have died from this in my state. That is much less than the flu and it is crazy that 700 kill themselves each year.

I want information, not emotion.
Quote Reply

Prev Next