How does the field try to beat Lange in 2019?

Oct 14, 18 5:31

Post #1 of 86 (4954 views)

Lange is probably the best runner Kona has ever seen. There was a lot of talk about Sanders, Gomez, how Frodo would have been the one to beat etc, and to me it seemed like very little focus on Lange. He was beaten many times in 2018, but no one can beat him in kona. He has the formula for the race and his preparation dialled in. Admittedly the last 2 years seemed to be favourable conditions for runners in Kona, but if someone wants to beat him next year, I think they need to have a plan. Lange seems like a smart racer. Some of the other pro's don't like the way he races but, like many great athletes, he does what he needs to do to win. I don't like Macca but you can't deny that his 2010 victory over Crowie was very clever. Hoping for a windy day for the uber bikers is fine, but hope rarely wins titles.

So what do the other Pro's do?

Re: How does the field try to beat Lange in 2019? [Tubs] [ In reply to ]

Oct 14, 18 5:37

Post #2 of 86 (4917 views)

Have the first name Jan and get to the start line fit and healthy.

Re: How does the field try to beat Lange in 2019? [Tubs] [ In reply to ]

Oct 14, 18 5:37

Post #3 of 86 (4916 views)

Tubs wrote:

Lange is probably the best runner Kona has ever seen. There was a lot of talk about Sanders, Gomez, how Frodo would have been the one to beat etc, and to me it seemed like very little focus on Lange. He was beaten many times in 2018, but no one can beat him in kona. He has the formula for the race and his preparation dialled in. Admittedly the last 2 years seemed to be favourable conditions for runners in Kona, but if someone wants to beat him next year, I think they need to have a plan. Lange seems like a smart racer. Some of the other pro's don't like the way he races but, like many great athletes, he does what he needs to do to win. I don't like Macca but you can't deny that his 2010 victory over Crowie was very clever. Hoping for a windy day for the uber bikers is fine, but hope rarely wins titles.

So what do the other Pro's do?

there was a tactical moment in yesterday's race where Patrick was beatable. There were 4 up the going up the road and PL had yet to bridge on Dreitz's wheel to the chase pack. At that moment, I was rooting for TO to go with those 4 and take a chance, sort of like Amberger did. He didn't, and he stayed with the chase pack.

It probably wouldn't have worked out but somebody is going to have to take a chance. If TO goes up maybe another goes with him and the gap goes up even more. Hard to say. But to me, that was the moment that decided the race.

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Re: How does the field try to beat Lange in 2019? [TRO Saracen] [ In reply to ]

Oct 14, 18 5:44

Post #4 of 86 (4885 views)

I'm not convinced Jan would have beaten Lange yesterday. Jan had the 70.3 effort in his legs, and I think even without the stress fracture that would have affected him much like Gomez. Had Jan skipped the 70.3 Worlds, he would have still been 'the man to beat' which puts a lot of pressure and focus on him in the race. He would have been the marked man, expected to do a lot of the work, had other PRO's shadowing his every move, and still not had a huge lead on Lange after the bike. Even if Jan can beat him, that doesn't help all the other guys trying to beat Lange.

Re: How does the field try to beat Lange in 2019? [Tubs] [ In reply to ]

Oct 14, 18 6:03

Post #5 of 86 (4790 views)

Tubs wrote:

I'm not convinced Jan would have beaten Lange yesterday. Jan had the 70.3 effort in his legs, and I think even without the stress fracture that would have affected him much like Gomez. Had Jan skipped the 70.3 Worlds, he would have still been 'the man to beat' which puts a lot of pressure and focus on him in the race. He would have been the marked man, expected to do a lot of the work, had other PRO's shadowing his every move, and still not had a huge lead on Lange after the bike. Even if Jan can beat him, that doesn't help all the other guys trying to beat Lange.

Patrick only ran 2:41. Jan only needed to run a 2:45 to win with a 4 min lead at T2. If Drietz goes with starky and Jan was there then he could beat Lange.

Or Jan shows up and we get a wind day and the gap after the bike is 10 minutes.

Re: How does the field try to beat Lange in 2019? [devashish_paul] [ In reply to ]

Oct 14, 18 6:11

Post #6 of 86 (4746 views)

Lange ran 2:41, but how fast do you think he could run? How did he look in the last 10km, at the finish line? Did he have a 2:38 in his legs if he needed it ? I didn't see any footage

A windy day tilts the balance away from Lange. But hoping for a windy day leaves a lot to chance.

Re: How does the field try to beat Lange in 2019? [devashish_paul] [ In reply to ]

Oct 14, 18 6:18

Post #7 of 86 (4712 views)

devashish_paul wrote:

If Drietz goes with starky and Jan was there then he could beat Lange.

Dreitz! Not „Drietz“

Re: How does the field try to beat Lange in 2019? [Tubs] [ In reply to ]

Oct 14, 18 6:21

Post #8 of 86 (4693 views)

Lange won't three-peat. First-year-married guys rarely win.

"They're made of latex, not nitroglycerin"

Last edited by: gary p: Oct 14, 18 6:21

Re: How does the field try to beat Lange in 2019? [Tubs] [ In reply to ]

Oct 14, 18 6:27

Post #9 of 86 (4655 views)

Get their own “Domestique”??

Re: How does the field try to beat Lange in 2019? [devashish_paul] [ In reply to ]

Oct 14, 18 6:29

Post #10 of 86 (4645 views)

*If* With yesterdays weather I still think Lange wins or at least we have a closer finish with those two pushing each other until one blows up.

Re: How does the field try to beat Lange in 2019? [devashish_paul] [ In reply to ]

Oct 14, 18 6:29

Post #11 of 86 (4637 views)

devashish_paul wrote:

Tubs wrote:

I'm not convinced Jan would have beaten Lange yesterday. Jan had the 70.3 effort in his legs, and I think even without the stress fracture that would have affected him much like Gomez. Had Jan skipped the 70.3 Worlds, he would have still been 'the man to beat' which puts a lot of pressure and focus on him in the race. He would have been the marked man, expected to do a lot of the work, had other PRO's shadowing his every move, and still not had a huge lead on Lange after the bike. Even if Jan can beat him, that doesn't help all the other guys trying to beat Lange.

Patrick only ran 2:41. Jan only needed to run a 2:45 to win with a 4 min lead at T2. If Drietz goes with starky and Jan was there then he could beat Lange.

Or Jan shows up and we get a wind day and the gap after the bike is 10 minutes.

Lange was unbeatable yesterday. He timed his peak fitness for this race while everyone were busy killing it in other races. He ran a 2:41 because that is what was needed. He had a 2:35 in him.

What I don’t understand is why Matt Hansen can’t do what Lange does. He is pretty much built in the same mold.

Re: How does the field try to beat Lange in 2019? [Tubs] [ In reply to ]

Oct 14, 18 6:35

Post #12 of 86 (4599 views)

Tubs wrote:

I'm not convinced Jan would have beaten Lange yesterday. Jan had the 70.3 effort in his legs, and I think even without the stress fracture that would have affected him much like Gomez. Had Jan skipped the 70.3 Worlds, he would have still been 'the man to beat' which puts a lot of pressure and focus on him in the race. He would have been the marked man, expected to do a lot of the work, had other PRO's shadowing his every move, and still not had a huge lead on Lange after the bike. Even if Jan can beat him, that doesn't help all the other guys trying to beat Lange.

Fair comment but there are two certainties in 2019:
1) However their individual seasons pan out, Lange will be the marked man over Jan for Kona 2019.
2) Jan will not race the 70.3 worlds as part of Kona build up.

Re: How does the field try to beat Lange in 2019? [TRO Saracen] [ In reply to ]

Oct 14, 18 6:35

Post #13 of 86 (4595 views)

TRO Saracen wrote:

Have the first name Jan and get to the start line fit and healthy.

Jan did that last year and didn’t’ beat him.

Re: How does the field try to beat Lange in 2019? [TRO Saracen] [ In reply to ]

Oct 14, 18 6:36

Post #14 of 86 (4586 views)

TRO Saracen wrote:

Have the first name Jan and get to the start line fit and healthy.

Thats what Jan van Berkel tried to do. It didnt work.

Re: How does the field try to beat Lange in 2019? [Sbernardi] [ In reply to ]

Oct 14, 18 6:37

Post #15 of 86 (4584 views)

Sbernardi wrote:

Get their own “Domestique”??

^^ Bingo. I think the sport just changed. Watch for this next year.

Re: How does the field try to beat Lange in 2019? [KingMidas] [ In reply to ]

Oct 14, 18 6:41

Post #16 of 86 (4543 views)

KingMidas wrote:

[

What I don’t understand is why Matt Hansen can’t do what Lange does. He is pretty much built in the same mold.

+1

This - I dont get it. Even more so that he is used to heat and humidity.

Re: How does the field try to beat Lange in 2019? [Skyline Chili] [ In reply to ]

Oct 14, 18 6:43

Post #17 of 86 (4528 views)

Skyline Chili wrote:

TRO Saracen wrote:

Have the first name Jan and get to the start line fit and healthy.

Jan did that last year and didn’t’ beat him.

Frodeno was injured going into Kona 2017.

Pink? Maybe. Maybe not. You decide.

Re: How does the field try to beat Lange in 2019? [Tubs] [ In reply to ]

Oct 14, 18 6:47

Post #18 of 86 (4511 views)

2019 will be interesting, a healthy Frodo, Gomez more experienced, maybe even Ali Brownlee.

Lange needs to be relentless to keep improving himself, I think those prospects are probably what drove him in training.

What will it take to win in 2019, 2020? A full package performance in all 3 disciplines.

2 guys went sub 8 with swims of 52 and 54, this says sub 7:50 is possible at Kona at some point, can Ali stay healthy and handle the heat? Lange shouldn't change much but aiming to swim a minute faster with less effort than yesterday would be a good goal (starting the bike sooner with more gas in the tank).

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Re: How does the field try to beat Lange in 2019? [TRO Saracen] [ In reply to ]

Oct 14, 18 6:50

Post #19 of 86 (4492 views)

TRO Saracen wrote:

Tubs wrote:

I'm not convinced Jan would have beaten Lange yesterday. Jan had the 70.3 effort in his legs, and I think even without the stress fracture that would have affected him much like Gomez. Had Jan skipped the 70.3 Worlds, he would have still been 'the man to beat' which puts a lot of pressure and focus on him in the race. He would have been the marked man, expected to do a lot of the work, had other PRO's shadowing his every move, and still not had a huge lead on Lange after the bike. Even if Jan can beat him, that doesn't help all the other guys trying to beat Lange.

Fair comment but there are two certainties in 2019:
1) However their individual seasons pan out, Lange will be the marked man over Jan for Kona 2019.
2) Jan will not race the 70.3 worlds as part of Kona build up.

Do you think the 70.3 World's had anything to do with Jan's Stress fracture? in 2015 he won 70.3 World's and won kona and did not get a stress fracture from his 70.3. This year the 70.3 was just the event that snapped it to a fracture, but it was everything that happened in the 2-3 months (if not longer) before. Jan could have skipped 70.3's worlds and gottent the same stress fracture on another run or track workout and we'd be saying something else.

Re: How does the field try to beat Lange in 2019? [devashish_paul] [ In reply to ]

Oct 14, 18 7:00

Post #20 of 86 (4453 views)

No one will beat Lange until they change the non-draft zones to 20 meters. If Jan can't drop Javi at 70.3, he certainly can't drop Patrick, who is a better cyclist. Jan weighs 165 lbs? That is rail thin for a guy his height, but patrick weighs 140. That is game over from a cooling standpoint. Patrick is literally the perfect athlete for Kona.

Now, I think Cam Wurf needs to train like a marathoner for a year. 70-80 miles weeks and put the bike on the backburner. A guy with his engine can run a lot faster than he has thus far. He is also not very big for an uber biker. If he can run 2:50 off the bike, that could throw a wrench in things on a windy day in Kona.

Re: How does the field try to beat Lange in 2019? [realAB] [ In reply to ]

Oct 14, 18 7:04

Post #21 of 86 (4428 views)

Quote:

Lange shouldn't change much

I think that is spot on. So many athletes have gone after big improvements and it's back fired. In my mind, Lange needs to change nothing. He has the formula, don't change a thing. There is always HUGE temptation to keep tweaking and tweaking. He has won twice in a row. His plan is golden.

Re: How does the field try to beat Lange in 2019? [Tubs] [ In reply to ]

Oct 14, 18 7:10

Post #22 of 86 (4400 views)

Has to be windy for starters. Uber bikers with only that advantage coming off the bike are doomed.

Re: How does the field try to beat Lange in 2019? [realAB] [ In reply to ]

Oct 14, 18 7:10

Post #23 of 86 (4400 views)

I think its possible but the weather will have to cooperate again. With typical Kona conditions the top guys sit right around 8.

Re: How does the field try to beat Lange in 2019? [devashish_paul] [ In reply to ]

Oct 14, 18 7:14

Post #24 of 86 (4380 views)

Oh is that all?? How can you possibly say that the everything in the race would happen exactly the same with frodo’s Addition??

I don’t know the answer to OP’s question but Lange will not win next year.

Last edited by: DFW_Tri: Oct 14, 18 7:16

Re: How does the field try to beat Lange in 2019? [DFW_Tri] [ In reply to ]

Oct 14, 18 7:25

Post #25 of 86 (4317 views)

I don’t know the answer to OP’s question but Lange will not win next year.

If you know for a fact that Lange won't win, you must know who will.

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