SwBkRn44 wrote:
I am definitely in PR shape, which makes a forecast like this frustrating. I don't want to be stupid, but I don't want to give away too much time by slowing down either. I am relatively small (154 pounds) and handle the heat pretty well. Granted, I've never raced a marathon in these conditions, but summer training runs in the mid-80's never see my pace slow significantly. I was aiming to run 6:15s, recommendations range from 15-30 seconds per mile and more. I am not to keen to run 6:45s and regret it if I have a lot left in the tank, yet I don't want to shoot for 6:30s, and end up walking the last few miles (or worse) and wishing I had just run the 6:45s and finished.
Well it really depends on your past races in heat. It sounds like you may run in heat fine but have you had any key workouts in the mild spring during this training block? You could go at your goal pace for the first half and do your best to be conscious of getting enough hydration and possible cooling. At that point re-address your question and see if it makes sense to continue to push the edge or back off. Of course, this will be mentally tough to be honest with yourself at that point in the race.
Good luck and hope it comes together for you.