Thought Skipper was involved for Ali, must be covid related if it’s nothing else.

Interesting to see what Dan Biggles comes up with and some local interest for me with the Tanfields involved

If not 'for the win' then for an even bigger lead (after the minutes Brownlee will gain on the swim). Final quarter of the marathon will be a spectacle, if Oceanside and St George are anything to go by.
https://www.220triathlon.com/...-for-sub7-challenge/

I think for a fit Ali a 2:40 marathon would be relatively easy, you would think here if he’s in good shape and pushes a little mid 2:30s would still be easy enough with milking himself.

It’s going to be very interesting to see how much time Blu has to make up. If any of course. But he might have to run a sub 2:30 to even catch Ali, who may not even be running the at hard.

Yeah, Bigham is a huge asset on that team. Problem is he gets so damn aero that there won't be much to draft off.

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Agree, except there's no way that Bottrill hodge-podge will get anywhere close TTT. Interesting to see the pacers are (nearly) all British Isles based.
47+1+3:36 (@50kph) + 1 + 2:40 = 7:05 So for Sub7 (let alone beating Blummenfelt) Brownlee will have to set out to run sub 2:35, unless the TTT achieves >50kph (which I expect they aspire to - see Mallory Park video and Skipper commentary).
I presume that his swim pacer (or one of them) will be Brownlee junior. Maybe Richard Varga who was #1 on both swim and bike in Texas a fortnight ago might be the other swimmer: they were habitual ITU FoFoP swimmers (eg London, Rio).

The linked 220 pre-WC interview with Astle gives the first name for Matthews' team: https://www.220triathlon.com/...nd-her-role-in-sub8/ (unsurprising given their friendship)
Spirig introduced her swim pacer on Insta (?)yesterday.

Is it me or does this look like an AB TTT win?

I think your bike speed is quite conservative, the Uk record for a solo 100 mile tt (admittedly wind and major road assisted) is 2:57:58 or 54.25kph can’t really see any reason a pack of 8 couldn’t at least meet or exceed that!

That gives a 3:20 bike, which allows for a 2:49 ish marathon, which I guess is why they are using so many of their helpers on the bike…

I presume they are using 1 and 1 on the swim and run but I guess there are a number of triathletes who could do both… also pretty sure Dan Bigham was an age group triathlete for a bit, not sure if he’s being roped in to pace 5k or so!

I was thinking 45mins for the swim including transition. 3:30 for the bike ish. Leaving them to “jog” a 2:40 for 6:55.

I thought all things considered they were not impossible times and actually quite reasonable.

As the previous poster said if they get the TTT down closer to 3hrs the marathon almost becomes easy in the grand scheme of things.

2:50 (56kph) - http://cdn1.cyclist.co.uk/...y-over-seven-minutes
The pacers will be used in two or even 3 teams, I expect. Three laps are 17km.
Here's more detail of some of Brownlee's TTT: https://www.instagram.com/p/Cdc1YSYplI2/

As I said: they'll aspire to average better than 50kph - was using that as a baseline. Might the women manage that: 10 mile TTT and repeat and . . .
The World-championships-mixed-relay-TTT https://www.procyclingstats.com/...elay-ttt/2021/result gives an idea of what 3 person teams can achieve.
And here's last year's 100 miles RTTC National Champs:
https://www.velouk.net/...mile-championship-2/
A few names on there (women) may feature on 5 June.

Just 2 racers for men and 2 for women? More shocking is why isnt Iden and Ryf in the mix

I was thinking about this. Maybe they'll have super aero guys rotating the front to break the wind, and then the tallest athlete on a road bike shielding Ali.

I wonder how much practice they'll do riding as a team? I'm guessing how well/smoothly they ride together probably plays just as much of an effect as who is on the team.

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Matt

You misspelled "obvious".

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"FTP is a bit 2015, don't you think?" - Gustav Iden

220 reported last year that this was offered to Ryf (who was in the earliest discussions on this, as was Frodeno) but she declined. In late 2020 (I think) Blummenfelt (at the time the 70.3 world best recorded time (Bahrain 2019)) was 'selected' as Brownlee's challenger.
https://www.220triathlon.com/...er-an-iron-distance/
Edit to add: Blummenfelt recce: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qFSmdF72IfU

Maybe Polyanskiy :-)

a) he's probably not busy
b) it's probably not an "official WADA" event

I was thinking 45mins for the swim including transition. 3:30 for the bike ish. Leaving them to “jog” a 2:40 for 6:55.//

My thought given good weather conditions, that 45 or just under for a wetsuit swim should be possible without drilling it for Ali. I was more in line with a 3;35+ bike ride, 3;30 might put too much pressure on Ali for the run with having to get in good nutrition and all, then an easy 2;30 high for the 7 hour barrier.

But of course this is a race besides being a timed event, so I think each guy will be running 2;30 mids at the very least, and much faster for Blu as he will certainly be in a hole after the swim, and probably a bit bigger one after the bike. But his mantra will be Ali will blow up, Ali will blow up, and he will keep charging to the very end, where they both break 7 hours...


I was wondering if they both tied their bonus to breaking 7 hours, and the win is just icing for the event? It's how I would have done it if it was your choice.

At 36 minutes in Macca says Blummenfelt targeting 2:20 for the marathon. For Ali, Jonny Brownlee and Javier Gomez are in as pacers, Joe Skipper out.

https://podcasts.apple.com/...9963?i=1000560777235

Confirm Jonny and Gomez in as pacers for Ali??

Ah … British Time-Trialling … the noble art of chasing trucks up and down dual carriageways at six o’clock in the morning. The ‘100’ record is more like 3h13’ if you apply the rule that the finish needs to be within 10 miles of the start and the course isn’t allowed to use roads that are manifestly dangerous. Moderately dangerous is OK, but there are traffic counts and the police don’t like racing on e.g. the Highway to Hull. I had some terrifying moments on the Oxford bypass in the 1990s.

I agree with the conclusion though - they’ll go fast enough - but a closed motor-circuit is going to be slower than a CTT TT course.

Interesting for me is that Brownlee has chosen guys who have more TTT experience, Blu has solo guys. TTT is a different ask. Advantage Brownlee for me.

I agree, both teams have a lot of fire power with some of the top end UK domestic testers in Kristian’s team, however a good chunk of Ali’s team have a team pursuit background rather than being out and out testers (but having pro-level watts to play with) which must be hugely advantageous in a TTT scenario. I’m sure both Dan and Matt will have been modelling this and know what is needed and what is possible - and I really hope afterwards we get some insight into this from them because it will be fascinating to see the different approaches (or indeed how similar they were)… or at least it will be for a geek like me. The one advantage I do see for Kristian’s team is that there are people with long distance TT pedigree with Duggleby, Fennell and Hutchinson all having sub 3:20 100s to their name (more of the team possibly do too, but this is just off the top of my head) - Yes I know what the courses are like but even so they are incredibly impressive rides.

Spirig's and Matthews' teams announced:
https://www.sub7sub8.com/news/
https://www.tri247.com/...eams-matthews-spirig

For the ride, Matthews (coach Björn Geesmann) will be backed by testers from Independent Pedaler Nopinz, the dominant UK domestic cycling team, augmented by others at the top of the TT game in the British isles.

Jennifer George (Scottish champion x 2),
Kelly Murphy (also track IP Irish record holder)
Alex Clay (top 2 in TT UK over 25, 50 and 100 miles)
Other testers include Emily Meakin (AWOL O’Shea Cycling Team), Frankie Hall (Loughborough Lightning) and Leah Dixon (Bianchi Hunt Morvelo pro team and 2021 Welsh national road race champion).
Ruth Astle (5th at St George and multiple IM Champion 2021) will be supporting the cycling 180km, and maybe provide company for sections of the run.
India Lee (multiple 70.3 winner) is a faster swimmer than Matthews so expect she'll be the lead swimmer (maybe one of two, only 8 pacemakers have been announced by Matthews so far) and likely some run company duty too.

Spirig (coach Brett Sutton) seems to have a less cycling focused crew: the only TT cyclists are: Joanna Patterson, the current UK RTTC National 100 mile TT champion and Lizi Brooke (Wahoo Le Col recent TTs, and briefly gained a UK pro tri licence).
The rest are triathletes including:
Fellow Swiss Geneva-based Imogen Simmonds (multiple 70.3 winner) in cycling mode (assumed).
Also IRONMAN champion Els Visser (same coach as Spirig) and uber swimmer Lucy Buckingham (both beat Spirig last month in Challenge Gran Canaria)
Luisa Baptista, Brazilian, PTO #20 and breakthrough at Oceanside)
Amelia Watkinson (NZ) multiple wins and seconds in Australasia.

A German champion long distance swimmer: Angela Maurer.
Maja Neuenschwander is Sprig's contemporary: a Swiss Olympian (2x), national record holder and multiple national champion in the marathon - she'll be the run pacer.
Duathlete Melanie Maurer will be able to double up for cycle and run duties.


Maybe amend thread title to "Sub7/Sub8 . . ." Ian.

Seems like two completely different approaches from the women. Would have thought they’d both be largely focused on bike leg savings, but seems like Spirig at least is focusing on every discipline, more than either Kat or the men.

Everyone but Spirig has made choices that are… sort of boring?

I’m not being critical. How cool would it be though if they incorporated an element of fun to their choice of pacers. Sacrifice a few minutes.

I know McCormack has said many big words about seeking the limits of human capacity, etc., but let be serious - the rules are 100% arbitrary and that aspect won’t excite too many?

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"FTP is a bit 2015, don't you think?" - Gustav Iden

the rules are 100% arbitrary and that aspect won’t excite too many? //

Well count me in as one of the many, totally psyched for this. This is a chess match as compared to checkers for a regular ironman This is a really thinking athletes game, and so many variables to consider. Swim too fast and might hamper the take off on the 8TT. Then on the bike you have to think do I need a lead on the other person in the run, or head up ok? At least Ali's pacers could go as fast as needed, only question is how hard will it be for him to hang on(which he of course can), without pinching the back half of the run. I think he will want to preserve and add to his swim gap, so perhaps take 5 to 8 minutes into the run. He knows Blu can suffer, and if he does that 2;20 he is predicting, he can at least have a shot with a 2;28.


The women are all over the place, just wonder if some of those triathletes will be swimming, some of the bike, some or all of the run? Is it allowed to just pace a portion of an event, then jump back in later in the same or different one??

Yes, I accept that it's a complex tactical/strategic game. The process is interesting. But the goal?

It's just that I'm not feeling the 7 or 8 hour benchmark at all, and I'm not that curious how fast you can complete 140.6 miles with drafting allowed throughout, with pacers who can rotate in and out, on a course designed with nothing but speed (and the ability for pacers to rotate in and out) in mind. Like, if "the limit of human capacity" is 6:39 or 6:49 for the men, really, that fascinating?

And precisely because it's the process that's more interesting, I'd prefer to see more faces I recognize in that process.

Then again, if this is a publicity event for a non-triathlon target audience (stated goal of the Phoenix Foundation: encourage kids to exercise), who cares what I think.

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"FTP is a bit 2015, don't you think?" - Gustav Iden

Nice podcast interview with Matt Bottrill, KB's road captain for the sub-7 challenge, talking all things training & equipment for the sub-7: https://www.oxygenaddict.com/...stians-sub-7-attempt

There was also a very good podcast with Macca, can't remember who's podcast it actually was, in which he alludes more to the interesting details of tech, tactics and training.

There is seemingly a documentary coming on the whole project too, that sounds like it will have a lot of interesting stuff. I actually can't wait to see some of the tech,

Macca was also very enthusiastic about drafting long distance races, and made some claims regarding the difficulty of drafting that made sense on a level.

I'm in the can't wait camp too, we're about to see what technology can do, what the alleged limits of triathlete bike skills means, and just how fast these guys can run off a full distance swim and bike, draft assisted of course, but you could argue a massive tail wind helps them save as much energy as drafting will. Marathons in the 2:20s are unheard of in tri. We might see 2 this June.

The other things I'm interested in are the tactics and then the marginal gains, the type of which we are only just starting to see in tri.

The Matthews pacing team seems well designed (ie not "all over the place").
She's recruited women in the UK TT results lists' top top echelon, all of whom have raced TTT on the road and/or on the track: 6 of them. We'll likely see them as three pairs or two three-up taking multiple laps of Lausitzring’s 5.85km oval, with Astle involved as well. These cyclists can average 28mph, more over 11 miles. For example Alex Clay went sub 52 for 25 miles (28+mph) solo, just ahead of Joanna Patterson (a pacer on Spirig's team) in 2021's National 25.
Both women challengers have a swimmer better than them to give them feet to follow for 3.8km: Maurer(i) for Spirig; for Matthews: Lee and South African Sara-Jane Walker (Bath-based like Lee and Matthews). Lee can ride and run as well, once dried off. I assume none of the triathletes on Spirig's team will swim: all will ride and a few may run as a relay (if they can match Spirig's 6 minute mile pace) but she has an age-contemporary runner (Neuenschwander) as her dedicated run pacer.

The men's swim pacers have not been announced, but noting the WTCS calendar, I would be amazed if Brownlee junior is not there for a swim/run as an hors d'oeuvre to racing Leeds the following weekend and roll on to the Commonwealth's. Today (18 May) GTN have just related that as well as Jonny, Varga is in Brownlee's team as a swim pacer (just like ITU and Olympics 'old days'). They also mention Phil Sesemann (Leeds City AC and sub-30 minute 10km) as the second run pacer (besides Jonny).
To answer your question "wonder if some of those triathletes will be swimming, some of the bike, some or all of the run? Is it allowed to just pace a portion of an event, then jump back in later in the same or different one?" the swim pacers have to start with the athlete and either complete the swim or be pulled aboard the escort craft. A swimmer cannot be 'dropped in' half way.There is no limit on swapping bike or run pacers in and out once on the laps of Lausitzring and no restrictions about how many disciplines a pacer can help on.

I really cannot see a men's 8-up TT for 180km, though it would be amazing! Brownlee has 8 riding pacers so (guessing) these'll be split 4 and 4, or even 3 and 3 plus 2 subs, or they'll work a running replacement schema. Managing the TTT dynamic, including the handovers, while maximising average speed is a key part of the 'fun' and means that this challenge has a team work element entirely missing from triathlon.
Perhaps the novel and maybe hardest challenge of all is the challenge athlete holding the wheel close for 3 hours 20 minutes (Brownlee); others for even longer. Watts not a challenge.

Ok you answered my questions, so now I see a better path to putting on top triathletes for your team. With that in mind, I would have at least two pacers in the swim, even 3 if their abilities lined up. Then you can sit them out for the first lap of the ride, and then they can jump in(the triathletes that is).

On the bike front, I would want at least 6 guys out at a time, and not some long pace line like in a team TT. More of a pack with a couple leaders at times, poking a bigger hole in the wind. Honestly, the speed that these guys "could" go in a pace line, would just be too fast anyway. And remember this is all most of them will do, so they can turn themselves inside out to break wind at the optimal speed that the riders can hang onto with the lowest HR that lets them set up for a really fast run. There has to be some kind of pace line where longer pulls take place(as opposed to a TTT) and a rider is in front of and to the leeward side of racer, who never sees a drop of wind the entire ride. I'm thinking around 31mph or so will be the sweet spot if done correctly, and all those domestics will be capable of that easily shifting in and out.

So a mix of hard core fast riders and top triathletes makes sense now. You can then also use 2 or 3 in the run too, poking that bigger hole in the wind, while protecting the side winds from hitting the runner. Being able to jump in and out just adds a whole other lever of complexity to the race, and the choice of pacers.

Wait... what? Sacrifice a few minutes? In an attempt to break 7 for the men, and 8 for the women? Where absolutely every minute counts.... you want them to sacrifice a few minutes? To have fun?

It's 10am and I am done with the internet.

So I (we) better understand you, please could you suggest examples of pacer athlete choices which could meet your 'not boring' and 'element of fun' cool criteria? By all means select a few for the current athletes or identify a pro of your choice, ideally from a fun-loving nation, and whom they might get to pace them, for excitement and fun.
Are you looking for juggling acts here, or fancy dress (latter precluded by the rulz btw)?
Which of Spirig's pacers shout fun fun fun at you?

Why even do this if the swim/run is irrelevant to making up most all the time in the "team time trial"?

The delta in speed from a TTT for 112mi easily goes from a Blu 7:2X time to under 7:00.

It's a foregone conclusion.

This is like the downhill 25mph downwind British 100mi TT record. Cool, yes. Weird, yup.

I'd like to add that Blu swam 39' for that 7:2X. There was a very strong current in Cozumel. I know someone that swam 52' in Cozu the same day, and they usually swim 35-36' in a 70.3.

I don't know how that came into place for your calculation that he can easily go under 7 by replacing the bike with the TTT.

Here are the rules. Section 4.2 on wetsuits. No restriction on wetsuit thickness! I know De Soto used the make the Water Rover that was crazy thick. 10mm in places. I’m sure we will see some new custom suits used if the water temp is not too warm.
https://www.sub7sub8.com/...ub8_FINAL_280422.pdf

No Sticky bottles!!!!

Blu already has a video showing his custom suit

At this point the sub-7 and sub-8 is a foregone conclusion, absent some sort of a fuckup. Everyone's talking not about whether they'll go under 7/8 but by how much (boring), and who wins (interesting-ish, but also a foregone conclusion IMO, absent some sort of a problem at the Matthews / Blummenfelt camp).



What's with people getting all worked up about it?

Simmonds, Watkinson and Buckinham (nee Hall) will be more interesting to follow than TTers that I've never heard of.

I'd personally like to see short course triathletes rotating in and out on the bike. (This may have been Lucy's plan before she got injured - she was going to rely on British triathletes). If you follow Super League, you recall they can be unbelievably good at very hard efforts separated by passive recoveries. Selection of 100 mile time trialists to go the whole way (presumably) is just too obvious and guaranteed to put viewers to sleep.

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"FTP is a bit 2015, don't you think?" - Gustav Iden

Swim venue: https://seekty.com/...ke/lake-senftenberg/
At present the water temperature is low 60s so wetsuits for sure.
https://www.instagram.com/p/CdtR6gvKQjt/ (Huub puff)
Also rains (ie precipitation some time during the 24 hour day) more than half the days of the month. Let's hope either 5 or 6 June is dry.

I moved to the area about 6 months ago. The rain seems to fall almost always overnight. Often wet in the morning but rarely rains during the day. So of those 50% of wet days, chances are good it'll be before 6am.

I would be amazed if that is the plan. I suspect that every team will have done considerable modelling to ensure they are getting the best out of the fire power they have.

For anyone who doesn't know, Dan Bigham who is part of Ali's team was involved in/ran the Huub Wattbike team pursuit squad that started ditching a rider very early after a monster turn and modelling their race approach based on the individual abilities and strengths of the riders available to the team to get the best possible result... and as a result made some national teams look bang average despite only having a tiny fraction of their funding. He's also worked with WT teams on aerodynamics and TTT tactics. I have no doubt all of the teams in this event will be doing modelling to get the best out of who they have available to them and you'll get your interesting tactics - or at least I really hope so! Dan's book Start at the End is a great read if you are interested in this sort of thing.

Maybe we might hear what Lucy Charles' plan was, given that this will have been well advanced by 29 March when she revealed her injury?
Would be interesting. Most of the "short course triathletes" haven't even got a TT bike, let alone the motivation to get aero and train on one. I guess this falls into your 'give up a few minutes' category. For me it seems a recipe for a TTT disaster and a 'fail'.
It would be interesting to know what 3 minute power some of the top short course athletes push compared to Matthews/Astle/Spirig because that is the sort of metric that 28 laps of the Lausitzring demands.

Matthews was not involved before then (she says - https://www.insidetrishow.com/...atmatthewstriathlete - though she thought she'd likely be better than Charles) and assembled her team with minimal reference to Charles' except bessie Astle was already involved. I suspect that Charles' plan was flocculent.

Charles Swim/run bests: 46:48 + 2:59:32
Matthews Swim/run bests: 54:47 + 2:49:48
Spirig - IM Cozumel in 2014 47:12 + 3:06:19 (swim current assisted)
Brownlee Swim/run bests: 46:48 + 2:43:39
Blummenfelt Swim/run bests: 49:39 + 2:35:23

In summer times you often get thunder storms in the afternoon. Is it due to global warming? summer times in Germany starting ever earlier.

Next Saturday May 28th there is an open TT on the DEKRA Test Oval, you can still register for it through lausitz-marathon.de

well if the rules are highly flexible why havent the women chosen male pacers?

It's all arbitrary, and frankly, stupid. Why same-sex pacers? Why limited number of pacers? Why not pace behind an 18 wheeler? Why not a downhill course? The fact is the effort is power assisted, so any decision that determines how power assisted is simply arbitrary. At least Kipchoge ran his 26.2 miles without power assistance. Pacing assistance, yes, but they didn't put him on a downhill course or a one-way course with the wind to his back, both of which are analogous to the drafting assistance this sub7/8 receive. And for this reason, I find sub7/8 to be stupid in comparison to sub 2. (and don't start down the "Kipchoge received aerodynamic benefit running at 13mph. It's not the same as drafting a pack at 30mph and you know it).

Kipchoge ran his 26.2 with the same benefits the Sub-7/Sub-8 athletes will receive (he actually had more, and was on fresh legs). Why are you comparing the running pacers Kipchoge got with bike assistance? If he was running at 30mph behind those guys he would have been receiving a benefit from drafting and pacing. You seem to be comparing the draft differences of running in a group at 13mph vs biking in a pack at 30mph. Which is stupid.

No power assistance? He ran barefoot? Also do you know what sit and kick means in run track racing? Every bit helps. I do wonder what the fastest solo unassisted marathon is though

Shoes aren't power assistance... good shoes waste less input energy but don't generate energy from thin air

Thanks for the tip! I'm in Samorin this weekend but I might be up for this TT if I recover well enough

similar to drafting on the bike.... which this guy is claiming as "power assistance"

No. In drafting there is clearly an external power source (a human) moving the wind for you.

The equivalent to shoes would be an aero bike, low car tires, disc wheel, etc. which waste less of the rider's own energy.

You got lucky with the unexpected start by Gustav Iden then. Pretty much a high profile race now.

Wish you good, un-Samorin-like swimming conditions.

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"FTP is a bit 2015, don't you think?" - Gustav Iden

Tipping Brownless will DNF during the run

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it doesnt matter what you say, someone on here will pick a fight over it.

Let's hope not. Less is more.
Great insights from the interview with the Brownlee cycling DS Jacob Tipper:
https://www.tri247.com/...-blummenfelt-at-sub7
“Our [UK] time trial scene is very advanced compared to anywhere else in the world. You can go to a Tuesday night club time trial and you’ve got old blokes running the fastest tubeless setups, the fastest wheels, 62 chain rings, oversized ceramic wheels. You get people there more optimised than half the World Tour guys, to be completely honest!
"I’m just looking forward to seeing Blummenfelt’s face when we lap him a couple of times on the bike. Our job is just to get Alistair as far ahead of Blummenfelt as possible by the run."
Maths note: Each Lausitzring lap is 5.85km so that's 6 minutes 30 @ 54kph (33.5mph). Will 13 minutes be a good enough start for Brownlee after glass slippering round the ring 27 and a half times?

I was almost right.

DNS

He was always too injured to do this event.

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it doesnt matter what you say, someone on here will pick a fight over it.