Hard to tell. My first thought is that he pulled out of a pedal but watching in slow-mo, it doesn't look like it.

It almost looks like a chain break or chain drop as the guy looks like he was suddenly pedaling into a void!

I'm leaning toward *maybe* the left rear chain stay (or maybe seat stay) snapped. First thing is the left rear of the bike flexing/collapsing, then he tries to steer out of it. Also before anyone mentions frame failure, if the stay collapsed it's almost surely from damage sustained somewhere earlier.

Looking after the fall, there isn’t an obvious break in the seat or chain stay on the left. There is a good view. Slow motion of the fall shows the chain off though, but not proof that caused it

Looks like his right arm slipped off the aerobar pads. We have seen this before.
.

Arm comes off well after the "incident"
Looks like a bearing in the front wheel collapsed , but I dont know if that would be enough to cause you to crash.
Regardless, it definitely looks like a mechanical failure of some kind causing the crash

Hope he is ok, looks like he hit the deck hard

Do you have another source? Because it’s nowhere near clear enough to determine that in the video. It wouldn’t likely break clean off. It would just fail and then become like a spring suspended at one end.

Chain drop, freehub fail, or something similar. Looks like he loses resistance on the pedals which causes him to lurch forward with his body weight and slip one elbow off the pads. At that point it's tough to recover.

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ECMGN Therapy Silicon Valley:
Depression, Neurocognitive problems, Dementias (Testing and Evaluation), Trauma and PTSD, Traumatic Brain Injury (TBI)

This is what it looked like to me and when you are stomping hard on the pedals with all your weight on the pedals and remaining amount on the pads with almost no pressure on the saddle that looks like what would happen if yuo suddenly lose any connection to the read wheel (chain break, chain drop, freehub pall failure)

I got nothing. I think the arm slipping off is the result, not the cause.

The rear wheel is still spinning, and almost any stay failure that bad I think would result in a locked-up rear wheel.

There's no satisfying whip-lash appearance you get from a snapped chain. But maybe the frame rate is just too low to pick that out. But if I had to guess, I'd go chain break or other similar drivetrain failure.

It’s not one of those pro textreme trispokes collapsing again like sky went through a few of in one week?

Nope just looking on a decently big 5k screen frame by frame. The wheel never moves in the rear triangle that I can see

I'd say there's an argument it's a simple case of a wobble on a bike that doesn't have enough front centre? The pro tour TT guys are restricted by length so want more drop and ride smaller frame sizes. Get a wobble on something too small with too much weight on the front and it's a recipe for disaster at those speeds. Maybe some toe overlap when he tries to re correct but hard to tell?

You'd think if it was mechanical they would have figured that out.

"The reasons for the crash remain unclear but the team confirmed to Cyclingnews that while they have no current explanation, they are looking into the matter.
“It was a bizarre crash,” a spokesperson for the team confirmed, "and we are looking into it to determine what could have caused it.” "

Will they throw a sponsor "under the bus" or their own rider, seems to be the issue....I mean isn't it smart to say "we'll investigate" and then likely never really say anything after that....(they'll figure it behind the scenes and with no public explanation would be my guess).

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

My cousin had a crash exactly like this (except he ended up in a ditch) and for him, he snapped a screw on his aero bars. In my crash similar to this I snapped my bottom bracket. But as you say these were easy to determine even for a dummy like me.

The more I look at it, it looks like human error. It looks like he puts his head down for a final push over the line and he twists his arms a bit. This is based on the above video and nothing else.

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Dan Mayberry
Amateur a lot of things, professional a few things.

There's a frame, 19s in where his bars don't appear to be 90 degrees to the bike. It looks like the left side of the bars (looking from front) are too high (could just be an illusion as bike is also leaning). I wonder if the stem snapped on one side

Thom-Thanks for putting vid up. I was posting from my phone and it wasn't going as planned...

I watched it a few more times today and stopped it frame by frame and couldn't see much either. I do see at 23 seconds when the bike is upright after him crashing the aero bars are still in tact. I originally felt like maybe the stem snapped or the screws snapped as there were prior issues on SCs before. But the bars seem fine.

I agree with other posters-the guy hit the deck hard-especially his head. Wonder if he is racing today.

I'm beginning to wonder if his back wheel spun on some sand - it definitely seems like something going wonky in the back end, but nothing looks obviously broken like a frame or chain.

At the Junior Worlds TT in 2019, Tiberi also had a drivetrain failure; straight off the line. Looked like the left crank came loose. He calmly came to a stop and swapped out his Pinarello for his generic backup bike. Lost 20-30 seconds right off the bat. Then went on to have an awesome ride and won! Great performance and composure. He wasn't even the top seeded Italian, so no one was expecting much from him.

About 5 minutes into this video: https://www.nbcsports.com/...unior-itt-highlights

That looked like it really hurt!

I joked with my friend..."looks like the motor seized up" lol

But it looked like a gust of wind to me. I haven’t seen or heard anything about a failure of any sort.

It looks to me like he just lost his front wheel. Hard to imagine why that would happen in that situation, but that's what it looks like.

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Ed O'Malley
www.VeloVetta.com
Founder of VeloVetta Cycling Shoes
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Didn't look to me like he was cranking especially hard coming in

Also, if you watch it slo-mo, there's a frame or two with a perfect view of the left side, and the seatstay on that side looks intact

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"What's your claim?" - Ben Gravy
"Your best work is the work you're excited about" - Rick Rubin

Watching slo mo in high def it looks like the rear wheel kicked out for some reason. Team claims nothing broke.

Attached screenshot shows pretty clearly that his bars/pads didn't fail, everything still in place.

Agree. I posted earlier I wondered if it was the bars, but they seemed fine at 23 seconds.

When I originally when I saw the video my first reaction was that it was a gust of wind, but figured not likely since he was using a disc wheel.

I watched the video clip over and over again, can't figure out what went wrong, and team report confirms there is no evident issue. I wonder if the guy just went too deep in the red zone and almost passed out, lost his balance and went down.

Me too.

If you watch the full-screen version of the crash, you can also see that at the exact moment the front wheel appears to go, the banner under the clock gets blown upward pretty dramatically. In absence of anything more compelling, my best guess is that the gust of wind took his wheel out from under him.

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Tech writer/support on this here site. FIST school instructor and certified bike fitter. Formerly at Diamondback Bikes, LeMond Fitness, FSA, TiCycles, etc.
Coaching and bike fit - http://source-e.net/ Cyclocross blog - https://crosssports.net/ BJJ instruction - https://ballardbjj.com/

I was just thinking the exact same thing. That is how I would imagine being blown off your TT bike goes, gust blows your front wheel to the right, you involuntarily massively over-correct to the left and you're done.

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Ed O'Malley
www.VeloVetta.com
Founder of VeloVetta Cycling Shoes
Instagram • Facebook

I'm gonna be completely childish and say it was an EPIC fart at the absolutely worst possible time

Who's with me?

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"What's your claim?" - Ben Gravy
"Your best work is the work you're excited about" - Rick Rubin

I think if you are getting too much side-to-side weight transfer and a ton of weight on your front wheel you can hit a tipping point where the front tire hooks up and darts one way. It's more common on a mountain bike. On a motorcycle they call it a high-side crash.

Without further information, that's my final answer.

Looks like the front wheel broke or the tire came off?????

There is definitely a break of some kind
You can see where the front and rear wheel seem to become "disconnected" and start veering in opposite directions

This may sound odd, but i think he fell off the saddle, or his saddle broke. That is pretty much exactly what would happen on a TT Bike if your saddle failed or you simply slide off the front

Later race footage showed that his bike was just fine. No blown tires no broken wheels no broken components. The only thing visible was the chain was off. I think Thom got it right —it’s similar to a high side crash in motorcycling and even somewhat reminiscent of Chloe Dygert’s crash last fall which by the way —was there any conclusion on that crash?

This is why I thought that maybe his chain slipped or broke and lost connection to the rear wheel and then he would have literally fallen off the saddle if he had enough pressure on the pedals and suddenly there was no pressure on the pedals (especially if riding a short nose saddle)

My guess, not mentioned yet, he got dizzy/passed out from the effort. He’s basically falling off the bike and everything that happens is just the physics of the weight shift on the bike and the bars.

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I miss you "Sports Night"

Hmmmm good point. We have been focusing on the bike. The rider may have failed

Maybe, but hard to fail going in a straight line on smooth tarmac. You'd almost have to pass out or something, and he'd just smoothly navigated the chicane just prior.

I noticed there's a lot of sand being kicked up/blown around wherever he hits or slides across the ground. Possibly there was enough on the road to compromise traction as he's leaning into a crosswind?

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"I'm thinking of a number between 1 and 10, and I don't know why!"

I downloaded the Eurosport coverage, and "falling off the saddle" is my best guess. I think he was so far up on the nose and pushing so hard that the saddle slipped to the left right when he was putting down force with his left leg. Everything on the bike looked fine post-crash.

So... UCI rules on saddle position are the root cause of the crash ! Wouldn't have happened if he could have had a triathlon saddle position.

Are their rule makers taking note ?
(No. Of course not. They're banning things that don't matter like the length of socks)

Possibly...

Maybe if he'd used a more appropriate saddle.

I too think it's an unfortunate combination of hitting a dusting of sand, a gust of crosswind, and at just a the moment that he's putting his head down to power out the last few meters:(.

Glad to see him get up (even if he should have just stayed on the ground). ..I felt his pain seeing him go down like that.

Going at 25% speed and freeze framing it, I am also going with slipped off the seat. The top part of the bike jerked to the left while his hips did not and he could not get it back.

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"Remember: a bicycle is an elegant and efficient tool designed for seeking out and defeating people who aren't as good as you."

--BikeSnobNYC

If this is the case, it's a good reason for the UCI to amend its saddle setback rules (assuming they actually cared about safety). The current rules basically force riders to sit way off the front of the saddle.

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ECMGN Therapy Silicon Valley:
Depression, Neurocognitive problems, Dementias (Testing and Evaluation), Trauma and PTSD, Traumatic Brain Injury (TBI)

I don't know exactly why, but I do that anyway, even outside UCI restrictions.

When going full-gas TT it's just the most comfortable position for me.

And I don't think I'm alone there.

Edit: That's Lionel Sanders, I think. Not me. :)

Exactly...a "short nose" split saddle and "junk off the front"...basically "perched" on just the sit bones...is what allows for an effective (and comfortable) rotated forward position

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http://bikeblather.blogspot.com/

On the plus side, it is good to see the smooth hoarding on the run into the finish, with no jutting barrier legs, etc to catch on. He basically just slid along it.

Not something you would normally think would be necessary at a TT finish.

Which brings me to something I've never understood-people go to all the trouble of buying fancy seats and getting fancy bike fits and then go race/ride sitting only on the very edge of the seat, and in a position that is nothing like the bike fit.

So with that being said is it the bike fits fault for not putting the seat further forward, or the athletes fault for creeping forward for whatever reason?

JOF is pretty standard for tri positioning on a split nose saddle (by design). Looking at LS' position, he's got a forward angled seatpost and a pretty steep position. For the UCI pros, they can't put the saddle that far forward (LS had to do a bunch of changes for his hour record as well), so they go beyond "JOF" (supporting their weight on the pubic rami). Most of us on split nose saddles can also attest that it is a wider/more stable platform for nose riding than trying to do so with a conventional saddle where the weight is on soft tissue (taint) and you are much less planted.

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ECMGN Therapy Silicon Valley:
Depression, Neurocognitive problems, Dementias (Testing and Evaluation), Trauma and PTSD, Traumatic Brain Injury (TBI)

I think you misunderstood Tom (and to a lesser extent me). Lionel's saddle there might be in the correct position. It's neither a fit mistakes, not a position fault in allowing it to creep forward. Just the correct TT position.

I think you misunderstood me. Look at his bike fit video on YT for example (or any other triathlete) they sit back on the seat. But all the race shots always have them sitting just on the nose.

So where should you sit-right on the nose or back a little, and if right on the nose then Id assume the bike fit should look the same?

  

Ah, I see your point. You just left out that the fit mistake might be the athlete's fault by *not* creeping forward during the bike fit:



Maybe during a bike fit we just tend to think too much about how we should look during a bike fit rather than just "sending it" like on the road.

That said, I generally find that for reasons I haven't thought much about, TT position on a trainer just feels different to me than it does on the road. I don't like going off the nose on the stationary trainer except on *really* hard efforts. And I'm just not anywhere near as comfortable in the TT position on a trainer as on the road (exact same bike). That could just be me, though.

i like the falling off the saddle idea. though, I feel like the first thing I see is the crank slippage, or whatever happens to his left leg it's tough to tell from the camera angle. I think something broke which caused that quick movement with the left leg - and THAT caused him to fall off the saddle. I don't buy any of this sand/wind business. i also don't buy that a pro cyclist would just fall off the saddle. it's possible, but seems a little far fetched. i think something broke which caused him to fall off, and that falling off then caused the crash. chain slippage, cassette came loose, shoe/cleat/saddle rail failed.

To me, personally, it 100% looked like he went to put out power and the drivetrain said "nope". Not sure if it was a free spin situation or a jam. But I've forgotten to shift to a faster gear before hammering again before just to freewheel and lunge forward on the bike and have the rear wheel dance a bit.

Especially maybe starting to hammer him coming after that last turn there gearing up for the finish line.

It looks like the rear of the bike and his butt are going in different directions well before his leg does anything funny... a few milliseconds at least. What you'd expect to see if there was slippage is very sudden downward leg motion (first)... and I'm not seeing it. The chain didn't break, and the cranks, pedals, bars, and the whole bike look fine afterwards.

I think it's a combination of riding the nose, extreme fatigue, sprinting for the line... and maybe a gust of wind. He's a pro but only 19 and I'm sure he wanted to impress with a good time here.

Did they resolve root cause on this?

No and they won’t ever announce it publicly anyways. It was already resolved that the bike had “no issues”.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

No, Trek Segafredo never released anything further. They promised info but nothing, much like during the Quinn Simmons ridiculous saga last fall. BTW there’s a great read on CN about QS and what really happened, I feel for they guy and I’m a liberal. Anyway back to Antonio, my best guess is the chain came off causing the left leg to push in an unbalanced fashion. They only other plausible theory is he blacked out due to exertion but I’ve never heard of that in a modern era pro cyclist.

Still waiting on the cause of the Dygert crash as well. I’m in a profession which values accident analysis and I hate to see these accidents quasi covered up.

I was involved with Aircraft flight safety and crash investigations when assigned to them in my first career, so its in our DNA to get to root cause and figure out where it was pilot error and where it was mechanical/electrical/computing failure.

Don't know the exact source, but I read somewhere that Dygert and her team just said she came in too hot and lost control. I don't think there's any mystery on that one...unlike this one where it's a guy going in a straight line.

Just thought of something else regarding the "slippage" theory (sudden loss of resistance for whatever reason).

He's pushing down hard with his left leg... if resistance disappears, isn't his body going to suddenly jerk left, and his bike move right? But it doesn't... the saddle of his bike goes left and his body moves in the opposite direction.

I'm sticking with him loosing contact with the saddle. You need to remember these guys have very high pedal force to weight ratios in a scenario like this... so high that his weight on the saddle is ~zero. He's sprinting for the line in a seated position, with hardly any weight on the saddle, and on the very extreme tip. It would take very little disturbance for the saddle to slide out from under him.

I heard from someone that should know that it was something with the front rim. Not immediately obvious something is wrong with it, but you can't see details of the wheel on the footage either. Wouldn't be the first time with that wheel. Guess we'll know soon enough whether they continue to use that wheel or not.

That's interesting... but the wheel never does anything odd that I can see. It's a rim-brake wheel and it looks straight and is spinning freely after the crash as well. In order to cause that sudden movement and loss of control, you'd think a noticeable failure would be necessary.

On the close-up slo-mo the saddle moving to the left relative to his butt appears to be the first thing that happens. In the other view, the front wheel and bars at that point are straight and in line with the rest of the bike.

On this footage, we clearly see the front rim suddenly "get soft" (crack, bend, whatever...), then the rider starts "wobbling", a fraction second after, the front rim "snaps", the bike swings, and the rider is down.


https://twitter.com/OutOfCycling/status/1363820836352897032


We don't see the same images on the youtube video...
Makes someone think about video "editing" or touch up...

About material failures and big companies:
I remember when Mavic first brought their R-Sys wheeks on the market. Lots of videos of cyclists suddenly hit the ground because of exploding wheels, but I guess Mavic's lawyers were all over this bad publicity, and the vids dissapeared...

Louis :-)

I don't think there is much more to say about the Dygert crash, pilot error 100%. OTOH, the protective barrier was in the completely wrong place; it should've been further down around the right turn.

I don’t see what you are seeing in the front wheel when I see this video