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ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur
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With ITU Leeds coming up this coming Sunday it's about time to pick favorites.

On the men's side we have Richard Varga returning to stretch out the swim. Closely behind him we ought to see Alistair, Jonny, Aaron Royle, Aurelien Raphael, Henri Schoeman and Vincent Luis. Those six ought to all make the front break away up the initial incline. Javier is not at Leeds this year and Varga will likely be still in recovery mode from Samorin so I'd expect only those six in the group that really gets away. Once they're off on the run I'm picking Jonny, Henri and Vincent for the top three. That is unless Alistair was playing opossum at Samorin . The temperatures are forecast to be in the low 60s*F with partly cloudy skies so no problems with heat exhaustion for the day.

On the women's side Flora looks totally unbeatable after her performance here and everywhere else last year combined with the clinic she put on at Yokohama this year. I was hoping to see Sophie Coldwell race again after her uber impressive Yokohama bike ride and am sad to not see her on the list. We ought to see Jessica Learmonth, and Lucy Hall up at the front of the swim along with Summer Cook and Flora with Jessica and Lucy but not Summer making it up that first hill as a threesome. Vicky Holland and Jodie Stimpson are absent from the roster but Ashleigh Gentle and Non Stanford will go hard on the bike and run looking for points. The main USA powerhouse girls as well as series leader Andrea Hewitt are not racing Leeds so after Flora In first place the next few are a bit of a toss up.

I'm calling Duffy, Stanford then Gentle for the podium.


Who are you all betting on?

Genetics load the gun, lifestyle pulls the trigger.
Last edited by: sciguy: Jun 6, 17 6:32
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [sciguy] [ In reply to ]
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I think you mean Non Stanford :)

The battle between the Brownlees and the Spaniards last year was absolutely epic; Alistair drilling the pace on the bike to drop Gomez and then dropping off the front himself to pick up Johnny and tow him back to the front with Gomez dangling tantalizingly close behind was just amazing to watch.

So, it's disappointing to see that neither Javier nor Mola are racing this year, do they have any particular reason? I may be way off base here, but if they're just skipping it because they don't like the course and/or know that the Brownlees are going to be showing up to their home race in tip-top-form (as was the plan, anyway) then it doesn't really promote the sport.

The Men's race will certainly be interesting, goodness knows what state Alistair will be in and we've not really seen anything of Johnny since his late start to the season and DNF in Yokohama. I wouldn't be surprised if neither make the podium.
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [awenborn] [ In reply to ]
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awenborn wrote:
and we've not really seen anything of Johnny since his late start to the season and DNF in Yokohama. I wouldn't be surprised if neither make the podium.

JB was crashed out of Yokohama near the end of the bike but ran his bike into T2 and still ran a 32mid to finish 42nd.
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [jkhayc] [ In reply to ]
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Ahhh, interesting. I just guessed that he DNF'd after his crash, but yeah that's a decent run for someone out-of-contention so perhaps he is carrying some good form.
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [awenborn] [ In reply to ]
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awenborn wrote:
I think you mean Non Stanford :)


Oops thanks

awenborn wrote:

So, it's disappointing to see that neither Javier nor Mola are racing this year, do they have any particular reason? I may be way off base here, but if they're just skipping it because they don't like the course and/or know that the Brownlees are going to be showing up to their home race in tip-top-form (as was the plan, anyway) then it doesn't really promote the sport.


Both Javier and Mario have 3 decent scoring races already so I'm not that surprised they would take a pass on this one. It does suit the Brownlees very well so why bang their heads on the wall in such a setting. Last year the lead moto stayed very close to the front group for the first couple of laps in both the women's as well as men's race. Javier and Richard Varga dangled valiantly off in space with a moto behind them for a long time but didn't have the horsepower to catch the well organized and perhaps moto advantaged lead group. I'm expecting JB to be in great form and AB to work his butt off to help his brother come to the run up front.

The longitude and time of day for the race works out well for the east coast of the USA. After getting up at 2:50am to watch all of Challenge Samorin in real time, this one will be a lot easier to watch as it happens.

Genetics load the gun, lifestyle pulls the trigger.
Last edited by: sciguy: Jun 6, 17 7:12
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [sciguy] [ In reply to ]
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Leeds weather is like Bergen weather. Blummenfelt will go top 3.
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [Halvard] [ In reply to ]
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Halvard wrote:
Leeds weather is like Bergen weather. Blummenfelt will go top 3.

Halvard,

I was thinking about that possibility. It's too bad he's not just a bit faster swimmer to hop right on that front group from the get go.

Hugh

Genetics load the gun, lifestyle pulls the trigger.
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [sciguy] [ In reply to ]
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If Leeds is AB's only ITU race of the year, is his role to be as domestique for Jonny?

I know he is ultra-competitive and so it may not be in his personality to not give it his all and go for the win.

In any event, my picks are - 1. Jonny, 2. Alistair, and 3. Vincent.

Tougher call in the women's race, but I would guess - 1. Duffy, 2. Stanford, and 3. Van Coevorden.
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [Apollo71] [ In reply to ]
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Apollo71 wrote:
If Leeds is AB's only ITU race of the year, is his role to be as domestique for Jonny?

I know he is ultra-competitive and so it may not be in his personality to not give it his all and go for the win.
.

After his meltdown at Samorin he may be looking for a bit of validation at the "home race". I also expect he'll do his best to help Jonnny get some much needed points since this and all future races must count for the series year end total. It's a tough position to be at the 4th race in with a zero point total when you're gunning for the series win.

Genetics load the gun, lifestyle pulls the trigger.
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [sciguy] [ In reply to ]
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Unless AB gets a massive lead on the bike I see him dropping back once they start the run. He was suggesting that he has lost some of his run sharpness and something wasn't right last week so JB to win this one with AB towing him to T2.
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [newManUK] [ In reply to ]
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Jon B.
Henri
Ali B.

Doubt that this year Lucy and Jessica will be told to not help Flora - Alice Betto may also make the Flora / Lucy / Jessica early break and only adds more bike power to that group - hopefully they can hang with Flora during the technical bits and gain at least 2:15 on Non and Ashleigh, if they do:

Flora
Jessica
Lucy

Advocating for research & treatment for Myalgic Encephalomyelitis (ME).
http://www.meaction.net/about/what-is-me/

"Suck it up, Buttercup"
(me, to myself, every day)
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [Scotttriguy] [ In reply to ]
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Sorry as this post was on the 4th page I've gone and done my own duplicate thread, thanks for whoever it was who politely pointed me in this direction.

The field is weakest it's been yet Ali is still only turning up to domestic his brother? I think Jonny wins this even if Ali hadn't have DNF at the weekend, it seems he won't get any credit for it though.
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [awenborn] [ In reply to ]
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awenborn wrote:
I think you mean Non Stanford :)

So, it's disappointing to see that neither Javier nor Mola are racing this year, do they have any particular reason? I may be way off base here, but if they're just skipping it because they don't like the course and/or know that the Brownlees are going to be showing up to their home race in tip-top-form (as was the plan, anyway) then it doesn't really promote the sport.
.

I think there is more to it than this, along with lots of the top guys, many of the top women are also out. Maybe it is a mid season tune up, maybe something political, I would like to know though, but no one has made any type of statement either way.
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [Jackets] [ In reply to ]
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I'm picking AB to win. I don't put much stock into last week's meltdown. Ended up just being a training day for him IMO. I def. see it coming down to a run vs. his brother.

-------------------
Madison photographer Timothy Hughes | Instagram
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [Jackets] [ In reply to ]
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As you mentioned on the other thread, It would be interesting to see Taylor Knibb off with Flora, Jessica and and Vicky as she ran cross country and track with Cornell this past fall and winter but I don't think her swim is speedy enough yet to get her on the early train. Too bad Sophie Coldwell isn't racing as she'd help to make the front bunch really fly.

Genetics load the gun, lifestyle pulls the trigger.
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [Timtek] [ In reply to ]
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Timtek wrote:
I'm picking AB to win. I don't put much stock into last week's meltdown. Ended up just being a training day for him IMO. I def. see it coming down to a run vs. his brother.

I'll make an equally predictable statement - The sun will rise in the East.
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [B.McMaster] [ In reply to ]
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B.McMaster wrote:
Timtek wrote:
I'm picking AB to win. I don't put much stock into last week's meltdown. Ended up just being a training day for him IMO. I def. see it coming down to a run vs. his brother.

I'll make an equally predictable statement - The sun will rise in the East.

Do you think he was just playing opossum at Samorin saving himself for Leeds?

Genetics load the gun, lifestyle pulls the trigger.
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [sciguy] [ In reply to ]
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Perhaps trying to adjust the Vegas odds on this race.
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [B.McMaster] [ In reply to ]
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B.McMaster wrote:
Perhaps trying to adjust the Vegas odds on this race.

Well it certainly does make it a lot more fun to speculate the outcome. If he'd absolutely crushed the field at Samorin I think everyone would be looking for him to do it again at Leeds.

Genetics load the gun, lifestyle pulls the trigger.
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [sciguy] [ In reply to ]
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It will be interesting to see what happens the men's swim. Richard Varga showed how easily he could drop everyone at Samorin and since he's no longer training with the Brownlees he might not be so inclined to keep the swim pace rich but not too rich. He may still be feeling some after affects of that race as he actually finished the run with good effort. I can't see Raphael or Royal stretching things out like Richie and don't expect a Brownlee wanting to lead the swim.

Genetics load the gun, lifestyle pulls the trigger.
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [B.McMaster] [ In reply to ]
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B.McMaster wrote:
Timtek wrote:
I'm picking AB to win. I don't put much stock into last week's meltdown. Ended up just being a training day for him IMO. I def. see it coming down to a run vs. his brother.


I'll make an equally predictable statement - The sun will rise in the East.

Since Leeds is below 66.33 degrees North where there is 24 hours day now, I think this is a fair statement. there will be a sunrise, and AB on a home course with the set up cooked in his favor is going to win.

Sciguy, what's the instructions to the motoman....pull the lead swim pack or stay out of the way?
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [devashish_paul] [ In reply to ]
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devashish_paul wrote:
B.McMaster wrote:
Timtek wrote:
I'm picking AB to win. I don't put much stock into last week's meltdown. Ended up just being a training day for him IMO. I def. see it coming down to a run vs. his brother.


I'll make an equally predictable statement - The sun will rise in the East.


Since Leeds is below 66.33 degrees North where there is 24 hours day now, I think this is a fair statement. there will be a sunrise, and AB on a home course with the set up cooked in his favor is going to win.

Sciguy, what's the instructions to the motoman....pull the lead swim pack or stay out of the way?


I'm betting it's get lots of good close ups like this from last year;)



Genetics load the gun, lifestyle pulls the trigger.
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [sciguy] [ In reply to ]
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sciguy wrote:
devashish_paul wrote:
B.McMaster wrote:
Timtek wrote:
I'm picking AB to win. I don't put much stock into last week's meltdown. Ended up just being a training day for him IMO. I def. see it coming down to a run vs. his brother.


I'll make an equally predictable statement - The sun will rise in the East.


Since Leeds is below 66.33 degrees North where there is 24 hours day now, I think this is a fair statement. there will be a sunrise, and AB on a home course with the set up cooked in his favor is going to win.

Sciguy, what's the instructions to the motoman....pull the lead swim pack or stay out of the way?


I'm betting it's get lots of good close ups like this from last year;)

In fairness this could be from a fair distance away with the zoom but kind of does not look great on the fairness front, great on the coverage front....see my comment on the other thread....ideally you have a camera that can show where the moto is in relation to the riders!
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [sciguy] [ In reply to ]
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sciguy wrote:
It will be interesting to see what happens the men's swim. Richard Varga showed how easily he could drop everyone at Samorin and since he's no longer training with the Brownlees he might not be so inclined to keep the swim pace rich but not too rich. He may still be feeling some after affects of that race as he actually finished the run with good effort. I can't see Raphael or Royal stretching things out like Richie and don't expect a Brownlee wanting to lead the swim.

Jonny did in the last race.
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [Jackets] [ In reply to ]
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Jackets wrote:
sciguy wrote:
It will be interesting to see what happens the men's swim. Richard Varga showed how easily he could drop everyone at Samorin and since he's no longer training with the Brownlees he might not be so inclined to keep the swim pace rich but not too rich. He may still be feeling some after affects of that race as he actually finished the run with good effort. I can't see Raphael or Royal stretching things out like Richie and don't expect a Brownlee wanting to lead the swim.

Jonny did in the last race.

Yes, I saw that but he didn't stretch the field out at all compared to the amount Varga usually does. It was the very first time I've seen a Brownlee lead a swim. I'd think he'll want to save his legs for the initial burst they'll want to get away. As it was last year he couldn't match the front three up the hill.

Genetics load the gun, lifestyle pulls the trigger.
Last edited by: sciguy: Jun 8, 17 8:20
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [sciguy] [ In reply to ]
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I'm predicting a complete Brownlee masterclass for this, I think there's only Gomez who could challenge either of them on this course.

For the woman's I reckon we'll see Stanford trying to run Duffy down but just come short.

I have grandstand tickets will anyone else be about?
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [devashish_paul] [ In reply to ]
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The ITU is pretty strict on moto distances... The close ups come from a zoom lens... From what I've seen at ITU events, they have no problems in pulling motorcycles from the course that don't stay out of the way, and maintain appropriate distances.
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [Trauma] [ In reply to ]
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Trauma wrote:
The ITU is pretty strict on moto distances... The close ups come from a zoom lens... From what I've seen at ITU events, they have no problems in pulling motorcycles from the course that don't stay out of the way, and maintain appropriate distances.

and you're basing this on............blind faith?

Genetics load the gun, lifestyle pulls the trigger.
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [sciguy] [ In reply to ]
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Experience... I've witnessed in person multiple ITU events where motos were removed from the course when they were not respecting vehicular draft zones. I've also witnessed the moto pilot pre-race briefings at ITU events, where the rules are clearly articulated to anyone with vehicular access to the field of play. Of course, there may be some variability in terms of how this is implemented from event to event, depending on the Officials present, but it has been pretty consistent at the events ITU I've been at (there is a specific role for an official at ITU events around the control of the course, relating primarily to vehicles on course).
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [Trauma] [ In reply to ]
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Trauma wrote:
Experience... I've witnessed in person multiple ITU events where motos were removed from the course when they were not respecting vehicular draft zones. I've also witnessed the moto pilot pre-race briefings at ITU events, where the rules are clearly articulated to anyone with vehicular access to the field of play. Of course, there may be some variability in terms of how this is implemented from event to event, depending on the Officials present, but it has been pretty consistent at the events ITU I've been at (there is a specific role for an official at ITU events around the control of the course, relating primarily to vehicles on course).


OK then please explain how the moto was shooting video around the corner here if he was at least 12 meters ahead. There are numerous similar segments in the coverage. Mirrors?



Genetics load the gun, lifestyle pulls the trigger.
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [sciguy] [ In reply to ]
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sciguy wrote:
Trauma wrote:
Experience... I've witnessed in person multiple ITU events where motos were removed from the course when they were not respecting vehicular draft zones. I've also witnessed the moto pilot pre-race briefings at ITU events, where the rules are clearly articulated to anyone with vehicular access to the field of play. Of course, there may be some variability in terms of how this is implemented from event to event, depending on the Officials present, but it has been pretty consistent at the events ITU I've been at (there is a specific role for an official at ITU events around the control of the course, relating primarily to vehicles on course).


OK then please explain how the moto was shooting video around the corner here if he was at least 12 meters ahead. There are numerous similar segments in the coverage. Mirrors?

There is a whole other thread dedicated to this subject on this forum but ok I'll bite! Ali attempts to break if a massive pack forms at least two or three times in ITU races but abandons if no one goes with him usually (I can't remember him ever going alone) if he can draft off the lead moto so easy why doesn't he go solo?
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [Jackets] [ In reply to ]
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Jackets wrote:
sciguy wrote:
Trauma wrote:
Experience... I've witnessed in person multiple ITU events where motos were removed from the course when they were not respecting vehicular draft zones. I've also witnessed the moto pilot pre-race briefings at ITU events, where the rules are clearly articulated to anyone with vehicular access to the field of play. Of course, there may be some variability in terms of how this is implemented from event to event, depending on the Officials present, but it has been pretty consistent at the events ITU I've been at (there is a specific role for an official at ITU events around the control of the course, relating primarily to vehicles on course).


OK then please explain how the moto was shooting video around the corner here if he was at least 12 meters ahead. There are numerous similar segments in the coverage. Mirrors?

There is a whole other thread dedicated to this subject on this forum but ok I'll bite! Ali attempts to break if a massive pack forms at least two or three times in ITU races but abandons if no one goes with him usually (I can't remember him ever going alone) if he can draft off the lead moto so easy why doesn't he go solo?

The thing is the motos seem to stay very close for the first lap or two and then back off as they did at Leeds. So if you were out there all by your lonesome after getting a sweet gap you'd be in for a long solo. Taking several other good bikers with you allows for making it the whole way in good shape. It's smart strategy on his and Jonny's part and they work it like masters. They're great athletes and super savvy as well.

Genetics load the gun, lifestyle pulls the trigger.
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [sciguy] [ In reply to ]
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sciguy wrote:
Jackets wrote:
sciguy wrote:
Trauma wrote:
Experience... I've witnessed in person multiple ITU events where motos were removed from the course when they were not respecting vehicular draft zones. I've also witnessed the moto pilot pre-race briefings at ITU events, where the rules are clearly articulated to anyone with vehicular access to the field of play. Of course, there may be some variability in terms of how this is implemented from event to event, depending on the Officials present, but it has been pretty consistent at the events ITU I've been at (there is a specific role for an official at ITU events around the control of the course, relating primarily to vehicles on course).


OK then please explain how the moto was shooting video around the corner here if he was at least 12 meters ahead. There are numerous similar segments in the coverage. Mirrors?

There is a whole other thread dedicated to this subject on this forum but ok I'll bite! Ali attempts to break if a massive pack forms at least two or three times in ITU races but abandons if no one goes with him usually (I can't remember him ever going alone) if he can draft off the lead moto so easy why doesn't he go solo?

The thing is the motos seem to stay very close for the first lap or two and then back off as they did at Leeds. So if you were out there all by your lonesome after getting a sweet gap you'd be in for a long solo. Taking several other good bikers with you allows for making it the whole way in good shape. It's smart strategy on his and Jonny's part and they work it like masters. They're great athletes and super savvy as well.

Would you prefer Ali to do a Mola, and just sit in the main pack and draft round the whole bike keeping himself as fresh as he can for the run?
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [Jackets] [ In reply to ]
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yeap. gomez and mola rarely take risks on the bike. alistair does, and sometimes it pays off. having said that mola must have a high w/kg compared to other triathletes as i think he did pretty well on the kitzbuhl uphill bike leg that year, so the fact he never seems to do anything on the bike is also suggestive of him just saving himself for the run.
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [fulla] [ In reply to ]
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I predict I'll get out of the water in about 28 minutes, hate the run up the hill to T1, smash the bike leg, then once I've run up the hill out of T2, I'll enjoy the mostly downhill run, including the steep bit that goes past my front door. The wind and the occasional shower may also cause issues. The support in the city centre will be incredible even for AGers like me.

I also predict that some of the local strava segments will be put even further out of my reach.
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [sciguy] [ In reply to ]
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sciguy wrote:
Halvard wrote:
Leeds weather is like Bergen weather. Blummenfelt will go top 3.


Halvard,

I was thinking about that possibility. It's too bad he's not just a bit faster swimmer to hop right on that front group from the get go.

Hugh

His swim is better this year. He was front-pack (6th-7th) out of water in both Yokahoma and Madrid.He was also within seconds of 1st guy out of water in Abu Dhabi, where he went on to DNF. I'm guessing he makes front pack in Leeds. Will be exiting!
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [Trauma] [ In reply to ]
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Trauma wrote:
Experience... I've witnessed in person multiple ITU events where motos were removed from the course when they were not respecting vehicular draft zones. I've also witnessed the moto pilot pre-race briefings at ITU events, where the rules are clearly articulated to anyone with vehicular access to the field of play. Of course, there may be some variability in terms of how this is implemented from event to event, depending on the Officials present, but it has been pretty consistent at the events ITU I've been at (there is a specific role for an official at ITU events around the control of the course, relating primarily to vehicles on course).


So here is a shot taken fairly early in the bike last year. Jonny is still in the chasing group of 3 with Varga and Javier. One dash plus space on the road markings is exactly 6 meters. Notice the lead moto is ~ 8 or 9 meters ahead of Alistair and company. The ITU minimum for motor bikes is 12 meters and vehicles 35 meters.



Genetics load the gun, lifestyle pulls the trigger.
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [lovegoat] [ In reply to ]
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lovegoat wrote:
sciguy wrote:
Halvard wrote:
Leeds weather is like Bergen weather. Blummenfelt will go top 3.


Halvard,

I was thinking about that possibility. It's too bad he's not just a bit faster swimmer to hop right on that front group from the get go.

Hugh

His swim is better this year. He was front-pack (6th-7th) out of water in both Yokahoma and Madrid.He was also within seconds of 1st guy out of water in Abu Dhabi, where he went on to DNF. I'm guessing he makes front pack in Leeds. Will be exiting!

Considering that he ought to really shine with the tough start to the bike course. My wife keeps calling him "the guy with baby fat". He's going great for such a youngster.

Genetics load the gun, lifestyle pulls the trigger.
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [sciguy] [ In reply to ]
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sciguy wrote:
lovegoat wrote:
sciguy wrote:
Halvard wrote:
Leeds weather is like Bergen weather. Blummenfelt will go top 3.


Halvard,

I was thinking about that possibility. It's too bad he's not just a bit faster swimmer to hop right on that front group from the get go.

Hugh


His swim is better this year. He was front-pack (6th-7th) out of water in both Yokahoma and Madrid.He was also within seconds of 1st guy out of water in Abu Dhabi, where he went on to DNF. I'm guessing he makes front pack in Leeds. Will be exiting!


Considering that he ought to really shine with the tough start to the bike course. My wife keeps calling him "the guy with baby fat". He's going great for such a youngster.

Don't let yourself get fooled:) He's had great progression last two years (of course I'm biased being Norwegian).

Also - look out for the other Norwegian youngsters C. Stornes (20 in Madrid) and G. Iden (27 in Madrid, though dont think hes going to Leeds). I've said it a couple times before on this board, but just to show the competitiveness of these guys: Iden showed up in IM Norway 70.3 last year for his first HIM (in MPRO ofc), and won in 3:40. Now the field wasn't as strong as a number of other US/European venues, but he still went 20 (a tad short swim-course that year) - 2:09 (on rolling course) - 1:11, and beat amongst others Nils Frommhold and Filip Ospaly.
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [sciguy] [ In reply to ]
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As I said, enforcement varies... Corners tend to be the most common areas where you get athletes close behind the motos, because the pilots often underestimate the speed at which the cyclists can take the bends (as a racer I've nearly been put in the ditch while in a solo break catching a neutral support vehicle from a race that started ahead of us in a technical section, and the driver who was supposed to yield to me, ended up cutting me off in a chicane section). That said, in the case posted, the moto should have been warned, and then if it happened again, they should have been pulled from the course (which may or may not have happened after the clip). The moto pilots generally don't want to impact the race, but the camera guys on the back are often trying to con them into getting them closer for a "better shot". Unfortunately there are not eyes on the motos everywhere around the course, so you will get some incidences where proper moto draft zones aren't respected, but in general, I've found the ITU to be the least bad at enforcing them, and at least to be actively trying to prevent and police issues...
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [sciguy] [ In reply to ]
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Duffy
Stanford
Cook

//

JB
Royle
Blumenfeldt
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [Trauma] [ In reply to ]
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Just rewatched last years women's race. The initial moto tow for Flora, Vicky and Jessica was especially strong for the first lap. We're talking about 3 to 4 meters in this view. Hopefully the moto drivers will get a better briefing this year but I doubt it as break always add to the excitement;)




Genetics load the gun, lifestyle pulls the trigger.
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [Halvard] [ In reply to ]
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During the broadcast I hope the commentators can stop talking down Blummendelt's run.
In Japan he was the third fastest runner. But if you listen to the commentators you got the impression that he sucked.
Who cares about running form, the clock does not lie.
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [Halvard] [ In reply to ]
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I've noticed that when Blummenfelt runs he kinda has a deformed chest. Does he stick an inhaler down there or something? this was really noticeable when I saw him competing here in Auckland.
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [fulla] [ In reply to ]
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [Halvard] [ In reply to ]
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No wonder he's so fast. The Norwegian's have obviously opened him up and added an extra heart and set of lungs;)
I hope he make the front of the bike on Sunday and sets off some fireworks.

Genetics load the gun, lifestyle pulls the trigger.
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [sciguy] [ In reply to ]
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The odds are in and the bookies have J.Brownlee as favorite, Schoeman at 12/1 would of been a good EW bet but they're only paying out on the first two places now rather than the 3.

For those of you who fancy Blummenfelt you can get 18/1 on him. They haven't got any odds up for the women's race yet.
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [Halvard] [ In reply to ]
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What the hell is that protrusion on his chest?

Looks like its going to burst out of his chest like in Aliens.

Advocating for research & treatment for Myalgic Encephalomyelitis (ME).
http://www.meaction.net/about/what-is-me/

"Suck it up, Buttercup"
(me, to myself, every day)
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [Jackets] [ In reply to ]
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Perfect Brownlee weather predicted. 18/19, possible a light shower during the mens race, about 18mph easterly wind.

Swam in the lake earlier, it's not particularly warm or cold. My feet were a bit cold by the end but certainly nothing to worry anyone about.

Organisation is a LOT better this year, and whilst the AGers don't have to do it, the Elites I think still have the steep uphill start from the mount line.
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [Scotttriguy] [ In reply to ]
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Women's odds are out and if you're thinking the race is going to go the same as last year and either Learmouth 22/1 or Hall 40/1 can hold on for 2nd there is money to be made EW. Stanford at 3/1 has some good value in it.
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [chilled] [ In reply to ]
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If they will be lined up on the pontoon by race number, Jonny and Alistair are adjacent to Aaron Royle and Aurelien Raphael making for a really excellent swim group. Kristian Blummenfelt is over near Henri Schoeman and Vincent Luis so perhaps they can get something going. Richard Varga is more in the middle of the whole pontoon and you can bet his toes will be heavily chased. There's a somewhat gusty southwest breeze going so perhaps there will be some chop on the water. It looks to be a great day to race with very comfortable temperatures.

Genetics load the gun, lifestyle pulls the trigger.
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [Jackets] [ In reply to ]
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Jackets wrote:
Women's odds are out and if you're thinking the race is going to go the same as last year and either Learmouth 22/1 or Hall 40/1 can hold on for 2nd there is money to be made EW. Stanford at 3/1 has some good value in it.

Wish I could - especially since Summer Cook will add more speed to the front swim pack creating a bigger differential back to Non et al at T1 - but, alas, I cannot find a Canadian bet shop for triathlon. Would definitely go heavy on Flora for the win.

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"Suck it up, Buttercup"
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [Scotttriguy] [ In reply to ]
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Scotttriguy wrote:
Jackets wrote:
Women's odds are out and if you're thinking the race is going to go the same as last year and either Learmouth 22/1 or Hall 40/1 can hold on for 2nd there is money to be made EW. Stanford at 3/1 has some good value in it.

Wish I could - especially since Summer Cook will add more speed to the front swim pack creating a bigger differential back to Non et al at T1 - but, alas, I cannot find a Canadian bet shop for triathlon. Would definitely go heavy on Flora for the win.

Go to Skybet mate.

I'm sat in the grandstand now, only half empty at the moment about to start a Mexican wave!
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [sciguy] [ In reply to ]
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No Lucy Hall and no Summer Cook, means Flora and Learmoth may be only 2 off the front of the swim - will be harder to build a big lead.

Maybe Taylor Nibb pulls / keeps Non close enough to Flora that Non runs her down?

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"Suck it up, Buttercup"
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [Scotttriguy] [ In reply to ]
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Stanford is in that front pack on the swim if she can make the front pack on the bike I think that bet I put on her is prety safe!

Flora Duffys family is sat in front of me, coming all the way from Bermuda some support that!
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [Jackets] [ In reply to ]
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What happened to Learmonth? Commentators have said nothing online.

Advocating for research & treatment for Myalgic Encephalomyelitis (ME).
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"Suck it up, Buttercup"
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [Scotttriguy] [ In reply to ]
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Scotttriguy wrote:
What happened to Learmonth? Commentators have said nothing online.

They don't seem to know what's happened to her at the finish line either!
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [Jackets] [ In reply to ]
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How spread out are these groups? Proper course this!
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [Jackets] [ In reply to ]
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Evidently Learmonth didn't go slow enough in the swim to keep Non in the pack - but unusually had 8 on her feet...it was odd she didn't have a smaller swim pack and now we know why.

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"Suck it up, Buttercup"
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [Scotttriguy] [ In reply to ]
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she dropped back to domestique non.
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [mag900] [ In reply to ]
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mag900 wrote:
she dropped back to domestique non.

It is odd she was on her own at the front then ended up in the 2nd pack.
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [Jackets] [ In reply to ]
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why is it odd? her job is the domestique non and non was back on the swim.
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [mag900] [ In reply to ]
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mag900 wrote:
why is it odd? her job is the domestique non and non was back on the swim.

I'm surprised anyone is a domestique in this race, but it looks like you're right.
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [Jackets] [ In reply to ]
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Spivey has such a baby face - and bright future.

Betto or Spivey for silver?

Advocating for research & treatment for Myalgic Encephalomyelitis (ME).
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"Suck it up, Buttercup"
(me, to myself, every day)
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [Scotttriguy] [ In reply to ]
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Does anyone know how to get BBC commentators??
I have the ITU streaming but the commentators are driving me nuts so I would love to get BBC.
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [mag900] [ In reply to ]
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Absurd "team tactics" by GB, if Stanford was a few seconds down after the swim fair enough but Learmonth dropping out of the lead to wait a minute was ridiculous. And then they lost a further 1:30 on the bike anyway! Hopefully this debacle will be the end of team tactics, if I were Learmonth I'd be fuming.
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [Halvard] [ In reply to ]
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Trust me, you don't - the lead commentator on the BBC is awful (although slightly offset by having Helen Jenkins in the commentary box too)
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [r0bh] [ In reply to ]
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For me it cannot be worse than the ITU streaming.
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [r0bh] [ In reply to ]
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Maybe Learmouth dropped back so Stanford could domestique her?
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [Jackets] [ In reply to ]
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Jackets wrote:
Maybe Learmouth dropped back so Stanford could domestique her?


Bazinga!

Advocating for research & treatment for Myalgic Encephalomyelitis (ME).
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"Suck it up, Buttercup"
(me, to myself, every day)
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [Halvard] [ In reply to ]
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I just cannot listen to all the" "if I was her coach I would....." or "olympics this, olympics that" every other sentence.

Athletes have a brain and the olympics is just a race every fourth year. (rant over)
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [Scotttriguy] [ In reply to ]
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Scotttriguy wrote:
Jackets wrote:
Maybe Learmouth dropped back so Stanford could domestique her?


Bazinga!

She's about 5 secs in front of Stanford on the last lap.
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [Jackets] [ In reply to ]
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Is Ai Ueda going to run herself into 5th with the fastest run?

Advocating for research & treatment for Myalgic Encephalomyelitis (ME).
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"Suck it up, Buttercup"
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [Jackets] [ In reply to ]
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So according to Helen Jenkins the tactics were agreed by the members of the GB women's team (not imposed by the coaches) and Learmonth has been struggling with a knee injury in the last few weeks. Still looks pretty dumb though.

This course must be brutal given the gaps between the athletes (granted some of the big hitters are missing). Duffy is a class above at the moment.
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [Jackets] [ In reply to ]
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Jackets wrote:
Maybe Learmouth dropped back so Stanford could domestique her?

This seemed to go over peoples heads a bit.
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [Jackets] [ In reply to ]
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Top British women are having a bad year!

Skybet widened there odds to 7/1 on a A.Brownlee/J.Brownleee 1/2 wonder what they know?
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [Jackets] [ In reply to ]
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Game, set and match Brownlee!
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [Jackets] [ In reply to ]
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In the olympics Blummenfelt was 7s back out of T1. He said that the Brownlees were just too strong. He could not close those seconds.
Looks like something similar has happen today.
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [Jackets] [ In reply to ]
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15-20 second gap between the Brownlees + Raphael/Le Corre and the chase pack
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [r0bh] [ In reply to ]
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r0bh wrote:
15-20 second gap between the Brownlees + Raphael/Le Corre and the chase pack

Less than that, they're closing the gap.
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [r0bh] [ In reply to ]
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It is closing (I think).
The British and French are not cooperating (shock ;-) )
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [Jackets] [ In reply to ]
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Yes, think they're going to get caught before the city centre circuit, gap maybe 7 seconds
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [r0bh] [ In reply to ]
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Brownlees drop the French duo and attempt a 2-up
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [r0bh] [ In reply to ]
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It's almost as if they were teasing that chase pack!
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [Jackets] [ In reply to ]
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Hope everyone's been happy so far with the moto positioning ;-)
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [r0bh] [ In reply to ]
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10 second gap after the first of the laps; a few more seconds and they'll be out of sight of the chasers
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [r0bh] [ In reply to ]
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r0bh wrote:
Hope everyone's been happy so far with the moto positioning ;-)

Can we get a quick analysis of this so far from our resident ST moto watch team?
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [Jackets] [ In reply to ]
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Gap has gone out a lot on the 2nd lap, now 24 seconds. I expect it will keep on going out now they are out of sight up the road.
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [r0bh] [ In reply to ]
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r0bh wrote:
Hope everyone's been happy so far with the moto positioning ;-)

blatant drafting by AB............and JB.............and AB again..............and JB again...............classless.................LOL!
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [r0bh] [ In reply to ]
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So far this is an exhibition. Be interesting to see if they can stay a 2-man break the entire ride - how cooked will their legs be onto the run?

Surely Alistair doesn't have the run in him if they keep this up.
Last edited by: splashrunner: Jun 11, 17 8:46
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [splashrunner] [ In reply to ]
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How far back is Alarza? I think he's the only one either of them have to worry about on the run.
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [Jackets] [ In reply to ]
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Jackets wrote:
How far back is Alarza? I think he's the only one either of them have to worry about on the run.

Over a minute, they're home and dry!
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [moonmonkey02] [ In reply to ]
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Any long distance guys racing in Leeds???? (pink)
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [moonmonkey02] [ In reply to ]
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Totally classless, having a race put on in their home town and then putting on an exhibition for thousands of spectators ;-)
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [r0bh] [ In reply to ]
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Appears to me Ali has been doing the majority of the work, maybe he is just here to domestique Jonny?
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [Halvard] [ In reply to ]
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Those ITU guys do not know triathlon. No Hokas or visors
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [r0bh] [ In reply to ]
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r0bh wrote:
Totally classless, having a race put on in their home town and then putting on an exhibition for thousands of spectators ;-)

Horrible ambassadors for the sport!
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [Halvard] [ In reply to ]
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It is great to watch a triathlon with quality broadcasting and a lot of spectators.
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [Halvard] [ In reply to ]
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Will Alistair let Jonny win so he gets more points toward series champ?

Advocating for research & treatment for Myalgic Encephalomyelitis (ME).
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [Halvard] [ In reply to ]
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Alistair looking much better on the run than I expected, don't think he's going to give Jonny an easy win. Jonny's ITU focussed training versus Alistair's will to win, hard to call!
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [Scotttriguy] [ In reply to ]
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Scotttriguy wrote:
Will Alistair let Jonny win so he gets more points toward series champ?

Ali has always said if Jonny wants to beat him, he has to beat him. So I doubt it.

I do think Jonny will win, but if he does I think he's doing it on merit.
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [Halvard] [ In reply to ]
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I am still sure Blummenfelt will finish strong. But maybe I am biased since I am Norwegian?????
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [Halvard] [ In reply to ]
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How hard is this course? Everyone looks in bits!
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [Jackets] [ In reply to ]
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2 laps to go and 51 sec from AB/JB to the others.
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [Scotttriguy] [ In reply to ]
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Scotttriguy wrote:
Will Alistair let Jonny win so he gets more points toward series champ?

Nope!
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [Jackets] [ In reply to ]
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Jackets wrote:
How hard is this course? Everyone looks in bits!

After what I understand the course has been designed by the Brownlees so it has to be hard :-)
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [r0bh] [ In reply to ]
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Jonny looks sick - hollowed eyes.

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"Suck it up, Buttercup"
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [Jackets] [ In reply to ]
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Alistair opens up a couple of seconds with 3.5km to go. He is a legend of the sport without a doubt
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [r0bh] [ In reply to ]
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I'm in awe! Hard to believe he was DNF a week ago.
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [Jackets] [ In reply to ]
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That was a MASTERCLASS. Seriously. He's an animal.

And still Jonny can't beat (healthy) Alistair over OD.
Last edited by: splashrunner: Jun 11, 17 9:44
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [splashrunner] [ In reply to ]
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Is AB now a good or a bad triathlete according to slowtwitch?

Find it difficult
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [splashrunner] [ In reply to ]
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Two great races this morning.
Life is good

And BBC is already out with a story http://www.bbc.com/...t/triathlon/40240790
Last edited by: Halvard: Jun 11, 17 9:51
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [Halvard] [ In reply to ]
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Absolutely phenomenal. There has never been a better 1-2 from two athletes working together. Such mental strength to hold that slender gap into the town centre and then put the sword to the chasing pack - which included some very strong cyclists who were all working together. Best swimmers, bikers and runners in the history of the sport.

Welcome to the Brownlee show. Are you not entertained?
Last edited by: messien: Jun 11, 17 9:55
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [Halvard] [ In reply to ]
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Halvard wrote:
And BBC is already out with a story http://www.bbc.com/...t/triathlon/40240790

it was pretty damned impressive. i beat their women's coverage but they outsplit me on the men's (by about 15 minutes) and i thought i had mine up pretty fast.

Dan Empfield
aka Slowman
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [messien] [ In reply to ]
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I was VERY entertained. That was phenomenal. To do that to a top caliber chasing pack with two people in the breakaway .... Insane!
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [Testrider] [ In reply to ]
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Testrider wrote:
Is AB now a good or a bad triathlete according to slowtwitch?

hey! that's like asking if the worst UK tabloid is a good or bad new source according to brits. just because 1 reader bleeds in his typical way over a marquis brand or athlete that's no reason to ascribe that view to the rest of us here.

Dan Empfield
aka Slowman
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [Slowman] [ In reply to ]
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [Jackets] [ In reply to ]
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Jackets wrote:
Top British women are having a bad year!

Skybet widened there odds to 7/1 on a A.Brownlee/J.Brownleee 1/2 wonder what they know?

Skybet got it very wrong and I'm now ÂŁ60 up which pays for my hotel in Leeds, off down the town to celebrate.
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [Jackets] [ In reply to ]
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Does anyone think Gomez, Mola or Murray would of got close to either of them today?
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [Jackets] [ In reply to ]
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Jackets wrote:
r0bh wrote:
Hope everyone's been happy so far with the moto positioning ;-)

Can we get a quick analysis of this so far from our resident ST moto watch team?

The photo-motos did a superb job on the men's race in particular. They kept good spacing almost all the time and they offset to the parallel lane when doing the closer in work. If my pissing and moaning about it helped in the least bit to drive the change then it was worth it;) It did seem to help keep the gap small until the technical riding began. Well done Brownlees and motomen to boot.

Genetics load the gun, lifestyle pulls the trigger.
Last edited by: sciguy: Jun 11, 17 12:35
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [Jackets] [ In reply to ]
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Mola - would have been 2nd pack and added little to the chase, doubt he could run 1 min faster than the Bs
Murray - ditto but probably wouldn't even have made the 2nd pack out of T1
Gomez - would have had the best chance but the Bs worked him over good and proper last year
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [Halvard] [ In reply to ]
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Halvard wrote:
Results with splits here
http://leeds-itu.r.mikatiming.de/2017/?pid=search
Haven't seen the course, but the runtimes seem to me to reflect an actual 10k distance with some elevation.

Terrible Tuesday’s Triathlon
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [r0bh] [ In reply to ]
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r0bh wrote:
Mola - would have been 2nd pack and added little to the chase, doubt he could run 1 min faster than the Bs
Murray - ditto but probably wouldn't even have made the 2nd pack out of T1
Gomez - would have had the best chance but the Bs worked him over good and proper last year

Gomez had just came back from injury last year I think, but I agree even if he'd have made that front pack bike at the start I doubt he'd have been able to go with the Brownlees when they both broke away.

I think he'd have got closer than Alarza did bit not by much.
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [Slowman] [ In reply to ]
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Slowman wrote:
Halvard wrote:
And BBC is already out with a story http://www.bbc.com/...t/triathlon/40240790


it was pretty damned impressive. i beat their women's coverage but they outsplit me on the men's (by about 15 minutes) and i thought i had mine up pretty fast.


To be fair to you, they probably wrote it before the event. Having two athletes like that you can get away with it.

Looking at the women's times looks like Gwen's baby is going to put women's racing back five years.

http://www.sweat7.com
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [Jackets] [ In reply to ]
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Jackets wrote:
Does anyone think Gomez, Mola or Murray would of got close to either of them today?

to me, it seemed they were vulnerable on the run. certainly it's because they put on a massive effort on the bike. still, 3rd thru 6th outsplit them on the run. if gomez had been able to stick during the bike leg, that would've been interesting. that's a big ask, but gomez seems to me to have class on the bike for a course like leeds.

Dan Empfield
aka Slowman
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [salmonsteve] [ In reply to ]
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salmonsteve wrote:
To be fair to you, they probably wrote it before the event. Having two athletes like that you can get away with it.

thanks. still, i'm pretty quick on the draw. i hate to get beat.

salmonsteve wrote:
Looking at the women's times looks like Gwen's baby is going to put women's racing back five years.

to me, i think one interesting element is how the same pipeline that uncovers and develops so many great american women is almost worthless when it comes to developing american men. i have my suspicion as to why that is so, still, that's a very lightly-discussed story.

Dan Empfield
aka Slowman
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [Slowman] [ In reply to ]
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Slowman wrote:
salmonsteve wrote:
To be fair to you, they probably wrote it before the event. Having two athletes like that you can get away with it.


thanks. still, i'm pretty quick on the draw. i hate to get beat.

salmonsteve wrote:
Looking at the women's times looks like Gwen's baby is going to put women's racing back five years.


to me, i think one interesting element is how the same pipeline that uncovers and develops so many great american women is almost worthless when it comes to developing american men. i have my suspicion as to why that is so, still, that's a very lightly-discussed story.

It seems like that pipeline undervalues the aptitude to become a strong cyclists (focus seems to be on the swim+run as it should be). On the men's side that is a bit more important than it has been on the women's side. You need to be able to ride with the front pack bus that the Brownlees are driving.
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [Jackets] [ In reply to ]
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Jackets wrote:
r0bh wrote:
Mola - would have been 2nd pack and added little to the chase, doubt he could run 1 min faster than the Bs
Murray - ditto but probably wouldn't even have made the 2nd pack out of T1
Gomez - would have had the best chance but the Bs worked him over good and proper last year


Gomez had just came back from injury last year I think, but I agree even if he'd have made that front pack bike at the start I doubt he'd have been able to go with the Brownlees when they both broke away.

I think he'd have got closer than Alarza did bit not by much.

I think if anyone could have gone with them on the bike it would be Gomez, but he would have had equally knackered legs for the run.
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [Slowman] [ In reply to ]
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Slowman wrote:
salmonsteve wrote:
To be fair to you, they probably wrote it before the event. Having two athletes like that you can get away with it.


thanks. still, i'm pretty quick on the draw. i hate to get beat.

salmonsteve wrote:
Looking at the women's times looks like Gwen's baby is going to put women's racing back five years.


to me, i think one interesting element is how the same pipeline that uncovers and develops so many great american women is almost worthless when it comes to developing american men. i have my suspicion as to why that is so, still, that's a very lightly-discussed story.

Amazed a mid 37 took a spot on the podium, and there's a 40 min in the top 20. I'm not the Authority on US development pathways so don't have the answers on that, but I do hear ya....

http://www.sweat7.com
Facebook Page: Sweat7
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [salmonsteve] [ In reply to ]
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salmonsteve wrote:
Amazed a mid 37 took a spot on the podium, and there's a 40 min in the top 20.

well, i don't think this race was typical. 15th place in the men's race was mid-33s. when you put a challenging bike course in there, and people are racing the bike flat out, that's going to take a toll on the run.

bear in mind that bike course had 2 things that makes it impossible to sit in and rest: hills, and turns. when you have that many turns it's hard to be 2/3 of the way back than it is to be in front.

Dan Empfield
aka Slowman
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [Slowman] [ In reply to ]
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to me, i think one interesting element is how the same pipeline that uncovers and develops so many great american women is almost worthless when it comes to developing american men.

ETA: Sorry if that derails the thread.

------

I'd love to hear your thoughts. But i hope it also acknowledges itu men and itu women are 2 completely different sports in how they race.

That to me is a hugely underrated.

Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II
Last edited by: B_Doughtie: Jun 11, 17 14:33
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [B_Doughtie] [ In reply to ]
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i think it's about access. american women have much greater access to sport than women in most other countries (canada, NZ, and a couple of others are the equal to or superior to the US). women have the opportunity in the US to develop as high schoolers, continue to develop as collegians, and then there are plenty of them ready to move right into the pipeline after college.

but no women have access to the professional money that the men have at an early age. there is no brownlee-gomez analog for the women. not many pathways for a woman to become a high-earning pro triathlete at 18 or 19 years old. there are plenty of pathways for men to do that in all kinds of countries.

the US men are actually held back by following the same pipeline as the US women, because US men lose 4 development years. mola's pathway was better for him than smoragiewicz's pathway was for him.

therefore i think america's pathway for women is great compared to the alternative in most other countries; but that same pathway for men is worse than the alternative in most other countries.

Dan Empfield
aka Slowman
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [Slowman] [ In reply to ]
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Great and I am glad you said that as that was basically what I was alluding to with the sports being 2 complete different animals.

Where I would disagree is in the "earnings" potential for men at age 18-20 range. That I think is exactly why you see men going to college on someone else's dime.

Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [B_Doughtie] [ In reply to ]
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i think it would be interesting to see how many of the top male triathletes in the world - brownlees, mola, gomez, and on down - are full time college students from the age of 18 thru 22 or 23. i think a lot of US men are, and pretty much all US women are. i don't *think* mola and gomez taking scholarships to go to college. but i might be wrong. who in the top 15 or 20 men spent those years in college?

Dan Empfield
aka Slowman
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [Slowman] [ In reply to ]
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Slowman wrote:
i think it would be interesting to see how many of the top male triathletes in the world - brownlees, mola, gomez, and on down - are full time college students from the age of 18 thru 22 or 23. i think a lot of US men are, and pretty much all US women are. i don't *think* mola and gomez taking scholarships to go to college. but i might be wrong. who in the top 15 or 20 men spent those years in college?

Both Brownlees have degrees - Alistair has two.

I do think they got the chance to learn a bit more 'flexibly' than other students would - I think Jonny took an extra year to do his degree? He has definitely mentioned that he sat an exam in like, Australia or somewhere.
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [splashrunner] [ In reply to ]
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splashrunner wrote:
Both Brownlees have degrees - Alistair has two. I do think they got the chance to learn a bit more 'flexibly' than other students would - I think Jonny took an extra year to do his degree? He has definitely mentioned that he sat an exam in like, Australia or somewhere.

right. some of these men and ladies go on to earn advanced degrees, become medical doctors, while they're racing even. i just think the american women and even the non-american women - flora duffy as an example - are much more likely to take advantage of scholarship-funded full-time college, usually in a single sport, and then emerge into a triathlon career.

what i think is much less typical is for a man to do that. which men racing now in the ITU world took 4 years off of triathlon to devote to a single sport while going to college full time? or didn't start triathlon until they left the world of D1 or D2 college athletics? or the same basic pathway in another country?

Dan Empfield
aka Slowman
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [Jackets] [ In reply to ]
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Appears to me Ali has been doing the majority of the work, maybe he is just here to domestique Jonny? //

Here is what I think the Killer B's strategy was going into this race. First of all it began last week when Ali pulled the plug on the run, thus doing a normal hard training day. So no fatigue what so ever to begin this race with. 2nd I think their plan is to have Ali drill the swim bike as hard as possible, make sure there is a break at T2. Johnny helps, but Ali sacrifices. Then it is game on for the run, no gifts and Johnny has to win the race from Allistar. His handicap is the amount of work done by his big bro, but of course it is most often not enough without some other factor in there.


I think since the training for Allistar now is LD focused(not that much different from what he did before minus some spadework) he was able to drill this baby and not fade at the end. Of course others had faster run splits, but like I have always said, when you win a race overall, your last split is to be taken with a grain of salt. And Ali is the king of shutting it down when it is in the bag, so. I wouldn't read too much into his run split except that he ran fast enough to win...


I had a very strong feeling he was going to win this race, sure wish we could have bet on it with those great odds they were giving. That seemed like the real lock as far as odds and payouts go for sure...
Last edited by: monty: Jun 11, 17 16:48
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [monty] [ In reply to ]
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monty wrote:
Appears to me Ali has been doing the majority of the work, maybe he is just here to domestique Jonny? //

Here is what I think the Killer B's strategy was going into this race. First of all it began last week when Ali pulled the plug on the run, thus doing a normal hard training day. So no fatigue what so ever to begin this race with. 2nd I think their plan is to have Ali drill the swim bike as hard as possible, make sure there is a break at T2. Johnny helps, but Ali sacrifices. Then it is game on for the run, no gifts and Johnny has to win the race from Allistar. His handicap is the amount of work done by his big bro, but of course it is most often not enough without some other factor in there.


I think since the training for Allistar now is LD focused(not that much different from what he did before minus some spadework) he was able to drill this baby and not fade at the end. Of course others had faster run splits, but like I have always said, when you win a race overall, your last split is to be taken with a grain of salt. And Ali is the king of shutting it down when it is in the bag, so. I wouldn't read too much into his run split except that he ran fast enough to win...


I had a very strong feeling he was going to win this race, sure wish we could have bet on it with those great odds they were giving. That seemed like the real lock as far as odds and payouts go for sure...

I'm out as we speak drinking with Leeds finest with the 7/1 Skybet offered on a AB/JB 1/2 never thought that would happen though was convinced JB would win with AB being focused on longer.

AB has hardly turned up for ITU over the last few years, it makes you think if he had/hadn't (fitness/injury permitted or not) how dominant he'd have been.
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [Slowman] [ In reply to ]
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Dan, it's not the college that is the issue. It's the "we own you now" when they take the scholarships to do D1 single sports that is an American specific problem. How many US junior triathletes are *promised* to be able to tri cross training only to find out through peer/coach/environment/personal pressure that they just cant hack it and have to stop tri training. I can give you atleast 4 top juniors (one being a world junior champion) that that was the case in the past 3 years alone.

Ben Kanute has really been the only junior that has bucked the trend and didnt go D1 athletics (i dont know if this was because of lack of scholarships or was truly a triathlon goal). But there are others that I can name right now that have went the "20 year old pro triathlete full time" route and you would say 'who is that" and that would be kinda the reason why you see so many others taking the guranteed $100k in D1 single sport scholarship. Of course I'm stoked that Austin Hindman has been "promised" to cross train at Mizzou. Of course I dont think Mizzou is a powerhouse run program, so that may afford him some more leeway.

So I am not saying there is a right or wrong way. I cant blame a family that looks at $100k or having to live 6 in an 2 bedroom apt to train full time and suggests to their kid to take the D1 money.
ETA: I also know if you are a male that goes D1 route for the scholarship, you are in a very big hole coming out of college, I dont care how much "tri cross training" you were or weren't allowed to do. Demands of competition are just drastically different then the women's sport currently (although the women's sport is starting to evolve).

Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II
Last edited by: B_Doughtie: Jun 11, 17 18:10
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [Jackets] [ In reply to ]
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Jackets wrote:
monty wrote:
Appears to me Ali has been doing the majority of the work, maybe he is just here to domestique Jonny? //

Here is what I think the Killer B's strategy was going into this race. First of all it began last week when Ali pulled the plug on the run, thus doing a normal hard training day. So no fatigue what so ever to begin this race with. 2nd I think their plan is to have Ali drill the swim bike as hard as possible, make sure there is a break at T2. Johnny helps, but Ali sacrifices. Then it is game on for the run, no gifts and Johnny has to win the race from Allistar. His handicap is the amount of work done by his big bro, but of course it is most often not enough without some other factor in there.


I think since the training for Allistar now is LD focused(not that much different from what he did before minus some spadework) he was able to drill this baby and not fade at the end. Of course others had faster run splits, but like I have always said, when you win a race overall, your last split is to be taken with a grain of salt. And Ali is the king of shutting it down when it is in the bag, so. I wouldn't read too much into his run split except that he ran fast enough to win...


I had a very strong feeling he was going to win this race, sure wish we could have bet on it with those great odds they were giving. That seemed like the real lock as far as odds and payouts go for sure...


I'm out as we speak drinking with Leeds finest with the 7/1 Skybet offered on a AB/JB 1/2 never thought that would happen though was convinced JB would win with AB being focused on longer.

AB has hardly turned up for ITU over the last few years, it makes you think if he had/hadn't (fitness/injury permitted or not) how dominant he'd have been.

Or how much more injured?

http://www.sweat7.com
Facebook Page: Sweat7
Twitter: @sweat7coaching
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [Slowman] [ In reply to ]
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Slowman wrote:
i think it would be interesting to see how many of the top male triathletes in the world - brownlees, mola, gomez, and on down - are full time college students from the age of 18 thru 22 or 23. i think a lot of US men are, and pretty much all US women are. i don't *think* mola and gomez taking scholarships to go to college. but i might be wrong. who in the top 15 or 20 men spent those years in college?

There is no 'academic scholarships' for nationally ranked athletes in Europe.....

Either you go Pro = all in; or you focus on your academic performance = reduced training hours, support, etc.

Easy to forget that the American system is unique, and offers plenty of choices (that really do not deliver to the extend they theoretically could).
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [monty] [ In reply to ]
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monty wrote:
Appears to me Ali has been doing the majority of the work, maybe he is just here to domestique Jonny? //

Here is what I think the Killer B's strategy was going into this race. First of all it began last week when Ali pulled the plug on the run, thus doing a normal hard training day. So no fatigue what so ever to begin this race with. 2nd I think their plan is to have Ali drill the swim bike as hard as possible, make sure there is a break at T2. Johnny helps, but Ali sacrifices. Then it is game on for the run, no gifts and Johnny has to win the race from Allistar. His handicap is the amount of work done by his big bro, but of course it is most often not enough without some other factor in there.


I think since the training for Allistar now is LD focused(not that much different from what he did before minus some spadework) he was able to drill this baby and not fade at the end. Of course others had faster run splits, but like I have always said, when you win a race overall, your last split is to be taken with a grain of salt. And Ali is the king of shutting it down when it is in the bag, so. I wouldn't read too much into his run split except that he ran fast enough to win...


I had a very strong feeling he was going to win this race, sure wish we could have bet on it with those great odds they were giving. That seemed like the real lock as far as odds and payouts go for sure...
Mostly agree with you, however I don't think he's stopped doing speed work. I think he hasn't really decided if LC is the way to go yet or if Tokyo is a possibility so he hasn't really committed yet.
I think when he does commit to lc and all that entails, we will see real domination. Once again he showed that he can outbike the best, after swimming hard and then jog in a 31 min 10k. He looked really relaxed imo.
Hopefully this will silence some who thought he only crushes lc when he drafts or because of moto.

Terrible Tuesday’s Triathlon
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [oscaro] [ In reply to ]
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oscaro wrote:
monty wrote:
Appears to me Ali has been doing the majority of the work, maybe he is just here to domestique Jonny? //

Here is what I think the Killer B's strategy was going into this race. First of all it began last week when Ali pulled the plug on the run, thus doing a normal hard training day. So no fatigue what so ever to begin this race with. 2nd I think their plan is to have Ali drill the swim bike as hard as possible, make sure there is a break at T2. Johnny helps, but Ali sacrifices. Then it is game on for the run, no gifts and Johnny has to win the race from Allistar. His handicap is the amount of work done by his big bro, but of course it is most often not enough without some other factor in there.


I think since the training for Allistar now is LD focused(not that much different from what he did before minus some spadework) he was able to drill this baby and not fade at the end. Of course others had faster run splits, but like I have always said, when you win a race overall, your last split is to be taken with a grain of salt. And Ali is the king of shutting it down when it is in the bag, so. I wouldn't read too much into his run split except that he ran fast enough to win...


I had a very strong feeling he was going to win this race, sure wish we could have bet on it with those great odds they were giving. That seemed like the real lock as far as odds and payouts go for sure...

Mostly agree with you, however I don't think he's stopped doing speed work. I think he hasn't really decided if LC is the way to go yet or if Tokyo is a possibility so he hasn't really committed yet.
I think when he does commit to lc and all that entails, we will see real domination. Once again he showed that he can outbike the best, after swimming hard and then jog in a 31 min 10k. He looked really relaxed imo.
Hopefully this will silence some who thought he only crushes lc when he drafts or because of moto.

As one of the posters critical of AB's drafting in Challenge Championship I'd like to point out that I dont ever think the criticism of AB was founded on that sort of logic (i.e. he will only win if he drafts). ABs talent and capacity is proven far beyond anyone else, and he is without a doubt among the top (or the top) ITU-racer, ever. This naturally puts him in a position to potentially also be the best long - course racer ever, but in my book he still needs to prove this before we hand out any medals. Will he dominate LC? Very likely. However, as I've said elsewhere, the real test of his LC abilities comes the first time he attempts a full - distance. Of course he has better odds than any of beating the rest of the field, but it has to be done.

Now back to the drafting - issue. Even though he is without a doubt world-class in all he undertakes, I'd still like to see him race clean and fair. That's all. Please carry on.
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [windschatten] [ In reply to ]
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windschatten wrote:
Slowman wrote:
i think it would be interesting to see how many of the top male triathletes in the world - brownlees, mola, gomez, and on down - are full time college students from the age of 18 thru 22 or 23. i think a lot of US men are, and pretty much all US women are. i don't *think* mola and gomez taking scholarships to go to college. but i might be wrong. who in the top 15 or 20 men spent those years in college?


There is no 'academic scholarships' for nationally ranked athletes in Europe.....

Either you go Pro = all in; or you focus on your academic performance = reduced training hours, support, etc.

Easy to forget that the American system is unique, and offers plenty of choices (that really do not deliver to the extend they theoretically could).

I don't know if you're counting the UK as Europe here, but there are definitely scholarships for athletes at several universities over here.
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [monty] [ In reply to ]
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monty wrote:
Appears to me Ali has been doing the majority of the work, maybe he is just here to domestique Jonny? //

Here is what I think the Killer B's strategy was going into this race. First of all it began last week when Ali pulled the plug on the run, thus doing a normal hard training day. So no fatigue what so ever to begin this race with. 2nd I think their plan is to have Ali drill the swim bike as hard as possible, make sure there is a break at T2. Johnny helps, but Ali sacrifices. Then it is game on for the run, no gifts and Johnny has to win the race from Allistar. His handicap is the amount of work done by his big bro, but of course it is most often not enough without some other factor in there.


I think since the training for Allistar now is LD focused(not that much different from what he did before minus some spadework) he was able to drill this baby and not fade at the end. Of course others had faster run splits, but like I have always said, when you win a race overall, your last split is to be taken with a grain of salt. And Ali is the king of shutting it down when it is in the bag, so. I wouldn't read too much into his run split except that he ran fast enough to win...


I had a very strong feeling he was going to win this race, sure wish we could have bet on it with those great odds they were giving. That seemed like the real lock as far as odds and payouts go for sure...

I think, by a long way, it's the best bike performance I've seen in an ITU race. Yes the course helped a small group but still am really amazing effort. AB was doing some massive pulls on the front to get them to the circuit on their own. JB always looks more comfortable on the run but then AB drops him. So what happened last weekend?
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [splashrunner] [ In reply to ]
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splashrunner wrote:
windschatten wrote:
Slowman wrote:
i think it would be interesting to see how many of the top male triathletes in the world - brownlees, mola, gomez, and on down - are full time college students from the age of 18 thru 22 or 23. i think a lot of US men are, and pretty much all US women are. i don't *think* mola and gomez taking scholarships to go to college. but i might be wrong. who in the top 15 or 20 men spent those years in college?


There is no 'academic scholarships' for nationally ranked athletes in Europe.....

Either you go Pro = all in; or you focus on your academic performance = reduced training hours, support, etc.

Easy to forget that the American system is unique, and offers plenty of choices (that really do not deliver to the extend they theoretically could).


I don't know if you're counting the UK as Europe here, but there are definitely scholarships for athletes at several universities over here.


UK is no longer part of Europe...they decided to leave, remember?

Also, Slowman's examples were about Spanish athletes.
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [windschatten] [ In reply to ]
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Europe doesn't mean the EU. And last time I checked, the UK were still part of it and will continue to be so for at least the next 18 months.
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [newManUK] [ In reply to ]
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newManUK wrote:
monty wrote:
Appears to me Ali has been doing the majority of the work, maybe he is just here to domestique Jonny? //

Here is what I think the Killer B's strategy was going into this race. First of all it began last week when Ali pulled the plug on the run, thus doing a normal hard training day. So no fatigue what so ever to begin this race with. 2nd I think their plan is to have Ali drill the swim bike as hard as possible, make sure there is a break at T2. Johnny helps, but Ali sacrifices. Then it is game on for the run, no gifts and Johnny has to win the race from Allistar. His handicap is the amount of work done by his big bro, but of course it is most often not enough without some other factor in there.


I think since the training for Allistar now is LD focused(not that much different from what he did before minus some spadework) he was able to drill this baby and not fade at the end. Of course others had faster run splits, but like I have always said, when you win a race overall, your last split is to be taken with a grain of salt. And Ali is the king of shutting it down when it is in the bag, so. I wouldn't read too much into his run split except that he ran fast enough to win...


I had a very strong feeling he was going to win this race, sure wish we could have bet on it with those great odds they were giving. That seemed like the real lock as far as odds and payouts go for sure...

I think, by a long way, it's the best bike performance I've seen in an ITU race. Yes the course helped a small group but still am really amazing effort. AB was doing some massive pulls on the front to get them to the circuit on their own. JB always looks more comfortable on the run but then AB drops him. So what happened last weekend?

As someone has already said, I'm guessing he just used it as a training day once he started to feel the heat a bit he bailed on it to save it for yesterday.
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [Jackets] [ In reply to ]
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Jackets wrote:
newManUK wrote:
monty wrote:
Appears to me Ali has been doing the majority of the work, maybe he is just here to domestique Jonny? //

Here is what I think the Killer B's strategy was going into this race. First of all it began last week when Ali pulled the plug on the run, thus doing a normal hard training day. So no fatigue what so ever to begin this race with. 2nd I think their plan is to have Ali drill the swim bike as hard as possible, make sure there is a break at T2. Johnny helps, but Ali sacrifices. Then it is game on for the run, no gifts and Johnny has to win the race from Allistar. His handicap is the amount of work done by his big bro, but of course it is most often not enough without some other factor in there.


I think since the training for Allistar now is LD focused(not that much different from what he did before minus some spadework) he was able to drill this baby and not fade at the end. Of course others had faster run splits, but like I have always said, when you win a race overall, your last split is to be taken with a grain of salt. And Ali is the king of shutting it down when it is in the bag, so. I wouldn't read too much into his run split except that he ran fast enough to win...


I had a very strong feeling he was going to win this race, sure wish we could have bet on it with those great odds they were giving. That seemed like the real lock as far as odds and payouts go for sure...


I think, by a long way, it's the best bike performance I've seen in an ITU race. Yes the course helped a small group but still am really amazing effort. AB was doing some massive pulls on the front to get them to the circuit on their own. JB always looks more comfortable on the run but then AB drops him. So what happened last weekend?


As someone has already said, I'm guessing he just used it as a training day once he started to feel the heat a bit he bailed on it to save it for yesterday.

Would it not be more like, "he made the standard age grouper mistake of overbiking and under nourishing on a hot day, realized on the run he was going to pay the price and move backwards, maybe not get a payday and impact the day in Leeds and thus pulled the plug".


He claimed he had no legs, but it seems like he just overbiked and blamed it on his legs rather than his own brain/execution. Awesome race in Leeds, but you can't quite use the same tactics at half IM. He just needs to tone it down a touch. He likely got away wiith overbiking in St. George. It seems doubtful that he had more legs to give on the run. But as Monty said, the run split of the race winner is irrelevant when they win.
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [devashish_paul] [ In reply to ]
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devashish_paul wrote:
Would it not be more like, "he made the standard age grouper mistake of overbiking and under nourishing on a hot day, realized on the run he was going to pay the price and move backwards, maybe not get a payday and impact the day in Leeds and thus pulled the plug".


He claimed he had no legs, but it seems like he just overbiked and blamed it on his legs rather than his own brain/execution. Awesome race in Leeds, but you can't quite use the same tactics at half IM. He just needs to tone it down a touch. He likely got away wiith overbiking in St. George. It seems doubtful that he had more legs to give on the run. But as Monty said, the run split of the race winner is irrelevant when they win.

The counter-argument that supports ABs assertion that he wasn't right from the start gun that day is that he couldn't hold Varga's feet in the swim, which he would normally be able to do.

Anyway, that's history now. Yesterday was a phenomenal performance and must go into his top 5 or top 10 races list (plenty of contenders for that list!)
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [r0bh] [ In reply to ]
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I'm sure he also had Leeds in the back of his mind at Challenge 70.3 and knew exactly when to pull the plug not to affect his race in Yorkshire. That was my hunch and why I picked him for the W at the Olympic distance event yesterday.

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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [devashish_paul] [ In reply to ]
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devashish_paul wrote:
Would it not be more like, "he made the standard age grouper mistake of overbiking and under nourishing on a hot day, realized on the run he was going to pay the price and move backwards, maybe not get a payday and impact the day in Leeds and thus pulled the plug".


He claimed he had no legs, but it seems like he just overbiked and blamed it on his legs rather than his own brain/execution. Awesome race in Leeds, but you can't quite use the same tactics at half IM. He just needs to tone it down a touch. He likely got away wiith overbiking in St. George. It seems doubtful that he had more legs to give on the run. But as Monty said, the run split of the race winner is irrelevant when they win.

Please tell me what I bolded you meant that to be pink. I know its not a direct comparison, but it sure reads like you are comparing him to an age grouper.
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [splashrunner] [ In reply to ]
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What type of scholarships and what are the requirements per the scholarships? As I stated to Slowman earlier. The issue for American males is the requirements that are with said D1 single sport scholarship. The demands from the coach/peers/uni make it all but impossible *so far* for top male junior triathletes to take the paid money for uni and train respectfully for tri. Which hey I get it...the school is paying you to represent them to run or swim, and so if they tire of your tri training and "missing" workouts, well they can pretty much say it's "this way or the highway". That's their right by giving money to the athlete. But I have a hard time believing that these other worldly pros are put with these type of restrictions in regards to their training as the US system is with lack of triathlon ncaa status (and likely never for males in US).

Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [B_Doughtie] [ In reply to ]
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B_Doughtie wrote:
The issue for American males is the requirements that are with said D1 single sport scholarship.

well, and the demands of college. if you go back a generation or two, we had some boy wonders go right to pro: lance, spencer smith, simon lessing, miles stewart. but that was rare. still, they could hit the ground running, financially, from high school, in triathlon.

not so the women.

and i don't think that has much changed. taking taylor knibb as an example, if she was a he, and he was a european, i think he'd be a full time pro earning a full time living. but taylor is, last i heard (and notwithstanding her race this past weekend in leeds) a student at cornell and racing xc and (i presume) track.

this will serve taylor well, as a woman, because if taylor was a european she'd probably not be earning as much as a male who'd won junior worlds as taylor did. so, taylor can rest in the luxury of knowing the european women who're 20 years old aren't going to get that far ahead of her during her 4 years of college, racing as a runner but moonlighting as an occasional triathlete.

but you take the american men who did well as juniors, stephen duplinsky, tony, lukas, kevin mcdowell, and every male before them including hunter kemper, they seem to have a harder time making up for those lost years.

we do pluck male runner/swimmers out of college, matt mcelroy, and i have hopes for andy truard when and if he decides to emerge as a pure triathlete (4-flat miler this year at NAU, high school swim state champion). but the men seem to lose a lot by not racing as full time pro triathletes from the age of 20.

Dan Empfield
aka Slowman
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [Slowman] [ In reply to ]
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Dan,

So what's interesting is that US juniors have a very good cast of athletes who went the "full time pro" route now the past 2 years (some may have part time studies as well). Eli Hemming, Seth Rider, Alec Wilimovsky. All went into full time daily training groups and are racing in Europe this summer for an extended period. Ben Kanute went the route of "full time pro" + "full time" student and made the olympic team at an age before even any of the D1 athletes usually come back into triathlon. Now looking at Ben, what allowed him to do that? Family wealth? Sponsor support? Lack of D1 scholarship offers (i have no clue to that specifics)...i do know that Ben has always loved triathlon and wanted to stay in the sport much more than going single sport.

Also when you say hit the ground running financially, how were they doing it "back in the day"? Living 7 together in a 2 bedroom house, eating ramon noodles and spam every day? I just have a hard time seeing how these 19 year old pros live and make enough money to simply cover their rent....rich parents? Sponsors?

Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [B_Doughtie] [ In reply to ]
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B_Doughtie wrote:
Also when you say hit the ground running financially, how were they doing it "back in the day"? Living 7 together in a 2 bedroom house, eating ramon noodles and spam every day?

we had money in tri in the 80s. bud lite, nike, lots of interest. the big money dried up right as the 80s ended, the non endemic money, but there was still money into the mid 90s. by then those guys were well launched.

the only way you're going to get good and stay good is if you LIVE in a training enclave. i really don't think it's matters as much who your coach is (as long as he or she knows what he or she is doing), or what your coaching regime, just that you get up, train, go to sleep in your enclave.

so when you say 7 living together in a 2 bedroom house, that's not really all that bad. as long as they're not drinking too much, and just training together every day, that - and not having to go to school - is a pretty good way to get faster.

the reason school works for single sporters is that the sport takes precedence. if you're a runner at oregon you're a professional runner with a part time job as a student. that's why i always recommend that good athletes do NOT go to a hard charging D1 program. assuming taylor knibb is still at cornell, i think that's a much better place for her than, say, stanford.

Dan Empfield
aka Slowman
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [B_Doughtie] [ In reply to ]
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Now looking at Ben, what allowed him to do that? Family wealth? Sponsor support? Lack of D1 scholarship offers (i have no clue to that specifics)..//

Being born in the US at this time in history is the real answer. IF he were British/Spanish/French/Russian and several other countries, he would not have been an Olympian. Eric the eel was an olympian, born in the right country at the right time, but this doesn't do anything to further or hinder Dans argument..
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [monty] [ In reply to ]
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monty wrote:
Now looking at Ben, what allowed him to do that? Family wealth? Sponsor support? Lack of D1 scholarship offers (i have no clue to that specifics)..//

Being born in the US at this time in history is the real answer. IF he were British/Spanish/French/Russian and several other countries, he would not have been an Olympian. Eric the eel was an olympian, born in the right country at the right time, but this doesn't do anything to further or hinder Dans argument..


Ohh man... along similar lines...I remember working at the ITU world champs a couple of times back around 2000, and talking to athletes from around the world in my age-group. Some of them were approx 40 mins slower than me over the Olympic distance - and I wouldn't have been in the top 20 in Oz for my age at the time, let alone top 6..!
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [sciguy] [ In reply to ]
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I'm now wondering what Jonny's race would have looked like if big brother had not been in attendance to TTT with him on the day. Considering how close the group was to swallowing them up, it's hard to imagine Jonny getting away solo or with anyone else but Alistair.

So what would the race have looked like with AB absolutely drilling it?

Genetics load the gun, lifestyle pulls the trigger.
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [sciguy] [ In reply to ]
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Easier bike then a running race between him and Alarza, probably. I do fear that ITU races without AB are going to revert to "wet run" format.
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [r0bh] [ In reply to ]
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In that sense Alistair will go to Rio regardless or not if he's going for Gold.

We all know that the British Triathlon place getting medals as their no.1 objective.

Who better to be the pilot/domestique than Alistair.

Shedding Mola and Murray is their optimal strategy. Alex Yee (19yr old who will be out for a few months after having a big crash in the Cagliari world cup) could be the fall back option if it all comes together as he's just ran a 13:37 5k). Although Tom Bishop is starting to look a pretty solid athlete himself.
Last edited by: messien: Jun 13, 17 6:17
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [messien] [ In reply to ]
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messien wrote:
In that sense Alistair will go to Rio regardless or not if he's going for Gold.

We all know that the British Triathlon place getting medals as their no.1 objective.

Who better to be the pilot/domestique than Alistair.

Shedding Mola and Murray is their optimal strategy. Alex Yee (19yr old who will be out for a few months after having a big crash in the Cagliari world cup) could be the fall back option if it all comes together as he's just ran a 13:37 5k). Although Tom Bishop is starting to look a pretty solid athlete himself.

With the chance to "3 peet" and earn one in the relay - I'd think its a really safe bet he will be there unless he gets injured.
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [sciguy] [ In reply to ]
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sciguy wrote:
I'm now wondering what Jonny's race would have looked like if big brother had not been in attendance to TTT with him on the day. Considering how close the group was to swallowing them up, it's hard to imagine Jonny getting away solo or with anyone else but Alistair.

So what would the race have looked like with AB absolutely drilling it?

Ali said Jonny wanted to call it a day when the pack was 5secs away from them but Ali pushed on and said let them catch us, that's the difference between the two I think.

Jonny still would have tried a couple of breaks after being swallowed up by the pack I reckon, forced the pace he'd have hit the run with fresher legs than if he'd not been with Ali, but not as fresh as Alarza my money would still be on Jonny.
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [Jackets] [ In reply to ]
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This coming September could be interesting. Alistair is all set to race the WTC 70.3 Championship in Chattanooga on the the 10th where there is a high potential to be hotter and a lot more humid than Samorin was. Then there's the ITU Grand Final a week later that he's also voiced a commitment to. If Jonny needs a super performance at Rotterdam like he did at Cozumel it might create an interesting mental dilemma for Alistair if he's being pressed out on the run in 30*C+ temperatures and thinks about how things need to go a week later. It really looks like that thought process may have gone on at Samorin but with more of a real world championship on the line the equation may be different. If Javier races Chattanooga there one more thing to factor in. You've got to figure Alistair wants to beat Javier at something where he's already won the WC.

It will be a super exciting September whatever the outcome.

Genetics load the gun, lifestyle pulls the trigger.
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [sciguy] [ In reply to ]
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sciguy wrote:
This coming September could be interesting. Alistair is all set to race the WTC 70.3 Championship in Chattanooga on the the 10th where there is a high potential to be hotter and a lot more humid than Samorin was. Then there's the ITU Grand Final a week later that he's also voiced a commitment to. If Jonny needs a super performance at Rotterdam like he did at Cozumel it might create an interesting mental dilemma for Alistair if he's being pressed out on the run in 30*C+ temperatures and thinks about how things need to go a week later. It really looks like that thought process may have gone on at Samorin but with more of a real world championship on the line the equation may be different. If Javier races Chattanooga there one more thing to factor in. You've got to figure Alistair wants to beat Javier at something where he's already won the WC.

It will be a super exciting September whatever the outcome.

Alistair has said a few times that 70.3 WC is his top goal for this year so I imagine he'll be focused on that at the expense of the Grand Final. He may well domestique Jonny but can't see going for the win motivating him in any way.

As for 2018, if he wins 70.3 Worlds on the first attempt I think we may see him move back to ITU at least part time. Unless any of the up and comers are better than him by then, I just can't see him not wanting that relay medal.
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [sciguy] [ In reply to ]
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sciguy wrote:
This coming September could be interesting. Alistair is all set to race the WTC 70.3 Championship in Chattanooga on the the 10th where there is a high potential to be hotter and a lot more humid than Samorin was. Then there's the ITU Grand Final a week later that he's also voiced a commitment to. If Jonny needs a super performance at Rotterdam like he did at Cozumel it might create an interesting mental dilemma for Alistair if he's being pressed out on the run in 30*C+ temperatures and thinks about how things need to go a week later. It really looks like that thought process may have gone on at Samorin but with more of a real world championship on the line the equation may be different. If Javier races Chattanooga there one more thing to factor in. You've got to figure Alistair wants to beat Javier at something where he's already won the WC.

It will be a super exciting September whatever the outcome.

Gomez is surely only going to race Chattanooga if he has no chance of winning the world ITU title?

I'd expect him to be in the running in Rotterdam, Gomez's main aim at the start of the year was to regain the ITU title.
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [Slowman] [ In reply to ]
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This is too funny.
Not even ITU can separate the brothers.
Jonny Brownlee has been congratulated on winning the World Series event in his home city of Leeds by the International Triathlon Union, despite having come second to brother Alistair.
http://www.bbc.com/...t/triathlon/40279973
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [Halvard] [ In reply to ]
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The other way to look at it is, they were only off by 1 place🤣

Dan Empfield
aka Slowman
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [Slowman] [ In reply to ]
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I was thinking about this difference (quality of US women triathletes vs men triathletes) and I agree with what I believe Dan has stated in the past. The biggest advantage that the US women have is that they have (on average) more opportunity in endurance sports compared to international female peers whereas the US men have the same or even less opportunity in endurance sport compared to other international males. Title IX being the likely causative factor. That isn't to say that US females have overall more opportunity than US males at endurance sport, just compared to the average international triathlete. But this doesn't completely explain the D1 college conundrum, whereby the college recruitment program has churned out winner after winner for the ladies and been pretty lukewarm with the boys.

Then I remembered this recent article by Lauren Fleshman. The whole article is great, but the useful bit for this discussion is when she talks about the developmental differences between teen boys and girls, "You are about to bathe in different hormones, hormones that, more often than not, temporarily interrupt that promised straight line of improvement." So my hypothesis is this: from a talent ID perspective, selecting from a group of 21-22 year old women is a more effective strategy than selecting from a group of similarly aged men, primarily due to the supposition that it is far more difficult to correctly identify 17-18 year old girls who will be talented senior athletes compared to 17-18 year old boys. This isn't to say that for a given talented junior triathlete, like a Taylor Knibb or Austin Hindman, that if she is a woman she should go run or swim D1 for 4 years or if he is a man he should dedicate right away to triathlon. That is another discussion entirely. But simply that it may take longer for the proverbial cream to rise to the top of the women's pool of talent than for the men.
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [r0bh] [ In reply to ]
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r0bh wrote:
The counter-argument that supports ABs assertion that he wasn't right from the start gun that day is that he couldn't hold Varga's feet in the swim, which he would normally be able to do.

Anyway, that's history now. Yesterday was a phenomenal performance and must go into his top 5 or top 10 races list (plenty of contenders for that list!)

I don't think you can point to not holding Varga's feet as anything. In ITU racing it doesn't behoove Varga to put time into the field.

Did you watch the Leeds race? Varga cruised for 1400 and then wrecked everyone for the last 100. No one is in his class in the water.
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [Dumples] [ In reply to ]
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Dumples wrote:
I was thinking about this difference (quality of US women triathletes vs men triathletes) and I agree with what I believe Dan has stated in the past. The biggest advantage that the US women have is that they have (on average) more opportunity in endurance sports compared to international female peers whereas the US men have the same or even less opportunity in endurance sport compared to other international males. Title IX being the likely causative factor. That isn't to say that US females have overall more opportunity than US males at endurance sport, just compared to the average international triathlete. But this doesn't completely explain the D1 college conundrum, whereby the college recruitment program has churned out winner after winner for the ladies and been pretty lukewarm with the boys.

Then I remembered this recent article by Lauren Fleshman. The whole article is great, but the useful bit for this discussion is when she talks about the developmental differences between teen boys and girls, "You are about to bathe in different hormones, hormones that, more often than not, temporarily interrupt that promised straight line of improvement." So my hypothesis is this: from a talent ID perspective, selecting from a group of 21-22 year old women is a more effective strategy than selecting from a group of similarly aged men, primarily due to the supposition that it is far more difficult to correctly identify 17-18 year old girls who will be talented senior athletes compared to 17-18 year old boys. This isn't to say that for a given talented junior triathlete, like a Taylor Knibb or Austin Hindman, that if she is a woman she should go run or swim D1 for 4 years or if he is a man he should dedicate right away to triathlon. That is another discussion entirely. But simply that it may take longer for the proverbial cream to rise to the top of the women's pool of talent than for the men.


This still does not explain why the women selected at age 21/22 are more successful than the men selected at 21/22. Also, Fleshman's article mainly addresses women as runners, not swimmers. Katie L is only the latest example of 15-19 yr old girls winning Oly gold and setting WRs, vs boys who tend to not peak until 20-24, with some exceptions such as Ian Thorpe. Since swimming is a key part of ITU triathlon, this is not a minor point. :)


"Anyone can be who they want to be IF they have the HUNGER and the DRIVE."
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [Dumples] [ In reply to ]
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interesting point. i'd just say this, that from my observation what you can't tell is what will happen to a high school freshman. what's typical is for a HS freshman girl to run a 2:10 for 800m, then as a sophomore to run 2:10, same as a junior, same as a senior. boys progress as you suspect they would.

by the time they get to that senior year, however, if she's running a sub-10min 3200, she's probably going to be a great runner thereafter.

the problem in europe is this: is that woman ever going to run that sub-3200m in high school? and if she does, and she's got a swim club background, is anyone going to pay her good money to race as a pro triathlete?

the USA seems to have a great developmental pipeline, men and women, up thru U20, and somewhat to U23. our men do GREAT as juniors. let's watch austin hindman along with the juniors he beat in cozumel. let's watch taylor knibb along with the juniors she beat in cozumel. let's see how much support the boys who austin vanquished get in the next 3 years. let's see how much support the girls taylor vanquished get in the next 3 years. that is, i think, the measure of how hard or easy a time either austin or taylor will have racing against the same folks 3 years from now they beat last year.

Dan Empfield
aka Slowman
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [Dumples] [ In reply to ]
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Dumples wrote:
But simply that it may take longer for the proverbial cream to rise to the top of the women's pool of talent than for the men.

You've raised a very valid point, and something any coach working in that U23/U20 female space already knows.

What is 'the cream' at 14/15/16/17/18 is likely not the cream at senior level.

The male and female development trajectory may as well be different sports.

Just look at the quality of U23 Worlds in the females compared to the males.

I've said for some time now our federation should spend their dollars Talent ID'ing in that 20-25 age bracket for the females. Get a massive list of those athletes that haven't 'made it' in soccer, rowing, etc, and find out who had swim lessons when they were younger.

http://www.sweat7.com
Facebook Page: Sweat7
Twitter: @sweat7coaching
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [Dumples] [ In reply to ]
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Related to your post: I know of a few guys who could swim in the lead pack of an ITU race who didn't swim in college because they didn't get any money. Barb Lindquists scouting program works well for women, BUT for the men they should be looking at HS, not college.

The 4:35 500 / 4:25 1500 guy isn't competing collegiately.
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [ajthomas] [ In reply to ]
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ajthomas wrote:
Related to your post: I know of a few guys who could swim in the lead pack of an ITU race who didn't swim in college because they didn't get any money. Barb Lindquist's scouting program works well for women, BUT for the men they should be looking at HS, not college.

The 4:35 500 / 4:25 1500 guy isn't competing collegiately.

Do you mean 4:35/16:00??? Assuming yes, I would edit to say "isn't swimming D1" as said guy could easily swim D3 or NAIA. Just a thought.


"Anyone can be who they want to be IF they have the HUNGER and the DRIVE."
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [ericmulk] [ In reply to ]
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1500 run
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [ajthomas] [ In reply to ]
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ajthomas wrote:
1500 run

Are these the USAT ITU recruiting standards??? If so, the run time seems relatively less stringent than the swim, as the AR for the 500 is 4:08 vs the WR for the 1500 run is 3:27.


"Anyone can be who they want to be IF they have the HUNGER and the DRIVE."
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [ajthomas] [ In reply to ]
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ajthomas wrote:
r0bh wrote:
The counter-argument that supports ABs assertion that he wasn't right from the start gun that day is that he couldn't hold Varga's feet in the swim, which he would normally be able to do.

Anyway, that's history now. Yesterday was a phenomenal performance and must go into his top 5 or top 10 races list (plenty of contenders for that list!)

I don't think you can point to not holding Varga's feet as anything. In ITU racing it doesn't behoove Varga to put time into the field.

Did you watch the Leeds race? Varga cruised for 1400 and then wrecked everyone for the last 100. No one is in his class in the water.
Exactly this, look at super league, he made some serious gaps over 400m!

Terrible Tuesday’s Triathlon
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [ericmulk] [ In reply to ]
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Quote:
This still does not explain why the women selected at age 21/22 are more successful than the men selected at 21/22


I'll try to explain further. If a NF has a strategy of attempting to identify talented female teenagers and train them to be internationally successful triathletes, they may find that there is a high rate of failure to progress from talented teen to talented senior. Whereas if a NF has a talent id program to look for 21-22 year old women (like the USAT collegiate recruitment program) more of the identified athletes are likely to improve enough to be successful at the senior level. If the same strategy is applied to men, a NF which recruits 21-22 year old men might find that its athletes never are able to improve to a level to be competitive on the international scene whereas a NF which identifies 17-18 year old boys is successful.

I don't really know how exactly other NF's try to find athletes to win medals but if I look at the results list for Leeds and compare US and AUS it seems like there is a fundamental difference in strategy. Spivey, Kasper, Cook, Backhouse, McShane, Gentle all born 1990-91. I would consider all these women to be in reasonably the same talent level at this point in time, ie all capable of WTS top 10s commonly and podiums occasionally. The first international race results: Spivey 2014, Kasper 2014, Cook 2014, Backhouse 2010, McShane 2006, Gentle 2007. Looking back at Rio, the US strategy seems more successful. Looking ahead to Tokyo, it sure looks like these three US women have more potential upside that the Australian women, but time will tell.

One could propose many potential reasons for the discrepancy in talent between the US men and women: maybe the style of racing is at different stages (particularly on the bike), maybe men require more years of specific tri training compared to women, maybe women burn out at a faster rate than men, and many others. (We could go on, this is an internet forum and speculation is encouraged.) The answer is likely multifactorial. But I propose that one significant reason is essentially selection bias.
Last edited by: Dumples: Jun 14, 17 22:07
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [ericmulk] [ In reply to ]
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Those are the standards that I think 5-10 graduating HS seniors can achieve per year. But I don't really know. Don't focus too much in the numbers, my real point is that I don't think the US system works as well for men.
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [B_Doughtie] [ In reply to ]
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So what I'm really saying is that it's much more on the men to go "all in" quicker and be on the hook much more than the woman for what it's worth. I guess that is the cost of doing business/reality check. ETA: that is the ultimate in high performance. Those that are good enough will be good, those that don't will be shuffled out the back w little notice.

Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II
Last edited by: B_Doughtie: Jun 15, 17 7:05
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [Dumples] [ In reply to ]
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One could propose many potential reasons for the discrepancy in talent between the US men and women: maybe the style of racing is at different stages (particularly on the bike), maybe men require more years of specific tri training compared to women, maybe women burn out at a faster rate than men, and many others. (We could go on, this is an internet forum and speculation is encouraged.) The answer is likely multi-factorial. But I propose that one significant reason is essentially selection bias.

Can you expand on what you mean by "selection bias"??? I know what this term means in general but I don't quite see how it applies in the case of ITU recruitment.


"Anyone can be who they want to be IF they have the HUNGER and the DRIVE."
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [messien] [ In reply to ]
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messien wrote:

Welcome to the Brownlee show. Are you not entertained?

Yes. Yes I am! Normally I skip huge chunks of the bike, but not this one. Quite the performance by Ali to gut it out until they got to the "safety" of the technical section.

I don't like him, but man do I respect his competitive drive!

Aaron Bales
Lansing Triathlon Team
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [MI_Mumps] [ In reply to ]
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you guys have been tiptoeing around the gorilla in the room. the very simple reason is that women's itu is nowhere near as competitive as men's itu so an american woman can go off to college on a running or swimming scholarship for 4 (or 5) years, get tapped on the shoulder by barb at graduation and within a year or 2 after no triathlon training for years (or ever) be swimming FOP and landing on ITU podia. this scenario has been repeated many times over the past 5 years. compare that to the men's side. the Bs, gomez, mola, etc all have been triathlon training exclusively since their teens (or earlier) and have tens of thousands of hours up on anyone who starts exclusive tri training when they are 22. that group has had a vice-like grip on itu podia and nobody who has picked up triathlon in their 20s has come anywhere near crashing their party.
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [mag900] [ In reply to ]
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mag900 wrote:
you guys have been tiptoeing around the gorilla in the room. the very simple reason is that women's itu is nowhere near as competitive as men's itu so an american woman can go off to college on a running or swimming scholarship for 4 (or 5) years, get tapped on the shoulder by barb at graduation and within a year or 2 after no triathlon training for years (or ever) be swimming FOP and landing on ITU podia. this scenario has been repeated many times over the past 5 years. compare that to the men's side. the Bs, gomez, mola, etc all have been triathlon training exclusively since their teens (or earlier) and have tens of thousands of hours up on anyone who starts exclusive tri training when they are 22. that group has had a vice-like grip on itu podia and nobody who has picked up triathlon in their 20s has come anywhere near crashing their party.


I think you're being way too simplistic here. Yes, the depth isn't there you just have to look at U23 start sheets at worlds the past 5 years, I think it was Chicago or Edmonton perhaps there were less than 25 on the start sheet?

However running with your chain of thought; the same girl who is racing triathlon (successfully) at 13 alongside the Brownlees hits puberty and either i) realises over 2-3 years she's getting slower not faster due to body type realisation, or ii) fights the body through 15-19, and ends up with low bone density and the consequent stress fractures through 19-24 that we see so often in U23/talent athletes.

It's far more complicated than you're attempting to paint it on the girls side.

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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [salmonsteve] [ In reply to ]
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it's not far more complicated. it's actually very simple. the competition at the itu level for women is a mere fraction of what it is for men, which explains how the US can pluck 22 year old women with zero triathlon background and have them podiuming within a couple of years. that is basically impossible on the men's side (not just for the US but the entire world). there are many reasons why this is the case, and we can discuss them, but you first have to come to grips with this very basic fact. i'm not sure what you were attempting to accomplish by mentioning a hypothetical female who is fast at 13, flat-lines and then quits the sport.

why do i have to look at the start sheets from an undercard race from 2 or 3 years ago to determine whether or not the elite side of men's itu TODAY is vastly more competitive than the women's side? duffy won yokohama by almost 2 minutes (after basically TTing the bike and jogging it in the last 1/4 mile). when was the last time a men's itu race was won by over a minute by someone doing all the work on the bike and then high fiving the end of the run? they are death marches from the opening gun with a varga-led swim and then a hammerfest on the bike with some combination of the Bs, gomez, mola and murray either at the front of closing in on the front. all of those guys are super talented and have been in the sport for > 10 years each. it doesn't leave much room for anyone else to crash the podium party. please show me where the equivalent of that crew is on the women's side.
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [mag900] [ In reply to ]
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mag900 wrote:
it's not far more complicated. it's actually very simple. the competition at the itu level for women is a mere fraction of what it is for men, which explains how the US can pluck 22 year old women with zero triathlon background and have them podiuming within a couple of years. that is basically impossible on the men's side (not just for the US but the entire world). there are many reasons why this is the case, and we can discuss them, but you first have to come to grips with this very basic fact. i'm not sure what you were attempting to accomplish by mentioning a hypothetical female who is fast at 13, flat-lines and then quits the sport.

why do i have to look at the start sheets from an undercard race from 2 or 3 years ago to determine whether or not the elite side of men's itu TODAY is vastly more competitive than the women's side? duffy won yokohama by almost 2 minutes (after basically TTing the bike and jogging it in the last 1/4 mile). when was the last time a men's itu race was won by over a minute by someone doing all the work on the bike and then high fiving the end of the run? they are death marches from the opening gun with a varga-led swim and then a hammerfest on the bike with some combination of the Bs, gomez, mola and murray either at the front of closing in on the front. all of those guys are super talented and have been in the sport for > 10 years each. it doesn't leave much room for anyone else to crash the podium party. please show me where the equivalent of that crew is on the women's side.

I'm not disagreeing with anything you're stating I know the racing isn't to the same level, it never has been but its far more emphasised these past years with the Brownlees specifically.

I just don't like how you're framing it stating "all of those guys are super talented" - guess what the girls are super talented too. My point is there is a whole raft of other issues you're painting over with the argument boys are more talented because they've been in it for longer and the depth is therefore far deeper. Girls are not boys and boys are not girls.

Why can the US talent ID at 21/22 and have relatively quick success? Because of the different maturational pathways of boys and girls.

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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [mag900] [ In reply to ]
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mag900 wrote:
it's not far more complicated. it's actually very simple. the competition at the itu level for women is a mere fraction of what it is for men, which explains how the US can pluck 22 year old women with zero triathlon background and have them podiuming within a couple of years. that is basically impossible on the men's side (not just for the US but the entire world). there are many reasons why this is the case, and we can discuss them, but you first have to come to grips with this very basic fact. i'm not sure what you were attempting to accomplish by mentioning a hypothetical female who is fast at 13, flat-lines and then quits the sport.

why do i have to look at the start sheets from an undercard race from 2 or 3 years ago to determine whether or not the elite side of men's itu TODAY is vastly more competitive than the women's side? duffy won yokohama by almost 2 minutes (after basically TTing the bike and jogging it in the last 1/4 mile). when was the last time a men's itu race was won by over a minute by someone doing all the work on the bike and then high fiving the end of the run? they are death marches from the opening gun with a varga-led swim and then a hammerfest on the bike with some combination of the Bs, gomez, mola and murray either at the front of closing in on the front. all of those guys are super talented and have been in the sport for > 10 years each. it doesn't leave much room for anyone else to crash the podium party. please show me where the equivalent of that crew is on the women's side.

This makes a lot of sense, it does seem a particular bleak year for womens ITU though with all the top women either pregnant, injured or horribly out of form.
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [mag900] [ In reply to ]
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 it doesn't leave much room for anyone else to crash the podium party.

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It will be very interesting to see what exactly the qualification process will be for the MTR and how federation's handle that. Whether or not athletes will have to qualify in individual race to make MTR roster or if itu/IOC allows free reign to the qualified nations to fill their roster; however each federation sees best.

Hopefully this gets MLT and sponsor incentives to keep that style of racing for the pros now. Pretty much needs more sponsors to make it viable in my view, but maybe they can get it w MTR as part of Olympic package now.

Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II
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