Thanks.

Care to add any input?

No, not really. You?

Just pointing out an interesting article from a conservative newspaper.

Most of them left before the military action began. They've gone to ground and will pop up elsewhere. This is going to be a much harder situation than Dubya ever anticipated.

Glad to see you rooting on your traditional ally, the United States. Do us favor. Stay off our side.

This is where I hope our military planners are smarter than I. I wouldn't have announced every day for three weeks that I was getting ready to attack. Could this have been a plan to roust the insurgents so that the city could be taken more easily? I don't understand it, but I hope some general does.

"This is where I hope our military planners are smarter than I. I wouldn't have announced every day for three weeks that I was getting ready to attack. Could this have been a plan to roust the insurgents so that the city could be taken more easily? I don't understand it, but I hope some general does. "

Gotta announce it. There's civilians there that aren't part of the insurgency, and announcing the attacks ahead of time allows those people to try to get out. Not doing so, then going in and killing a lot of innocents would crush any hope we had of keeping the moral high ground over the insurgents. Counter insurgency is, to a large extent, a public affairs exercise.

---

Slowguy

(insert pithy phrase here...)

Here's a link to a column whose author discusses the potentially hollow military victory (read: lower-than-expected body count) and how it may be a political success:

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6452966/

Here's a snippet:

“In military terms, Fallujah is not going to be much of a plus at all,” says Bernard Trainor, a retired three-star Marine Corps general. “The downside is that we’ve knocked the hell out of this city, and the only insurgents we really got were the nut-cases and zealots the smart ones left behind — the guys who really want to die for Allah.”

Fire with fire
And Godspeed to them, you might well say. But if all of this sounds anticlimactic and slightly dismal, don’t despair. For the attack on Fallujah, while not decisive militarily, could mark a political turning point in Iraq. For the first time since the interim Iraqi government of Ayad Allawi took power, the interim Iraqi leader showed that he was willing to deal with the insurgents on their own terms: with raw power and violence.

“Fallujah became symbolic on both sides that things were out of control over there,” says Trainor. “In the bigger picture, we [Americans] are incidental over there in that this is a struggle between Iraqis over what Iraq will be when we leave. The solution is not going to be a military one, it has to be some kind of political deal that is uniquely Arab. But that deal also has to be backed up with power and force, and Fallujah being taken down now demonstrates to all concerned that Allawi will not shrink from that course of action.” (Ibid.)

Another consideration is the destruction of a (seemingly) large part of the insurgent infrastructure: the weapons caches, the bomb factories, the "safe houses," etc. (I can't find the cite right now, but a number of months ago I read that forensics on many of the car bombs detonated around Iraq showed that the explosives used were tracable to Falluja. I can't remember the exact methodology used, but it made sense when I read it.)

What we don't know about is the net that was cast on the likely exit points around Fallujah. I'll doubt we'll hear much from the media on what was caught. To me that would be interesting stuff.

From an intelligence perspective, we are only hearing our stuff through the media. This is also for the benefit of the military. Send out some information and see how the bad guys react. It gives you better situational awareness, from which you build a better strategy.

RB

"Do us favor. Stay off our side. "

What's your problem? Just stating a fact. That's what happened.

I don't recall bush ever saying that it was going to be easy. I do recall him saying that it was going to be very difficult and take a long time.

Did you hear something different?

There is a high value to holding a major city, we are discovering large amounts of arms and intellegence and a defat is a defeat.

There is more to combat then theories written on the internet. Some things in war never change.

---

customerjon @gmail.com is where information happens.

Your memory is short. didn't we hear that the conflict was officially over, the Iraqui people would be welcoming with opening arms and there was even a set date for elections to establish a full democracy.

Of course Dubya has changed his tune since then. He's been given a four year mandate. Let's just wait and see what happens.

I don't remeber him saying it was over and there still is a date on the elections.

---

customerjon @gmail.com is where information happens.

>>>There is a high value to holding a major city

Yep, in 2GW & 3GW there sure is.

Wish it was that kind of war.

Ya know your right, I don't remember hearing him say it was going to be easy, but for some reason I get the impression he was trying to convey that message.

There's value to holding cities and making them safe for their citizens in counter insurgency too. 4th Generation Warfare depends on the collapes of the enemies will and the support of local population. Securing their cities is a good way to try to do this.

---

Slowguy

(insert pithy phrase here...)

Props to yabyum. I've always liked picture-books better.

Of course the mission was acomplished. Saddam fell. The rebuild is another matter.

---

customerjon @gmail.com is where information happens.

How much militray exprience you got?

---

customerjon @gmail.com is where information happens.

Didn't the U.S. claim to have killed 600 insurgents? (I swear I heard this on the radio a few times) So that means the battle for this city is over, right?

Just a few minutes ago 2 different imbedded reporters said there were over 1200 bad guys dead so far. They said the guys on the ground think there may be 1000 or more still fighting. They have also destroyed hundreds of tons of weapons, explosives and bomb making equipment. 20 tons were found in just one house. This isn't generals or PR guys; this was the guys on the ground with the troops.



Dave

A better question* would be how much experience do my sources have, since those aren't my ideas.

The answer: Lots. Of course you would've known that had you bother to read any of them.

Read that book Demerly has mentioned a few times: The Pentagon's New Map. Here's a good review:

http://www.d-n-i.net/...ews/pentagon_map.htm



* The problem with your brilliant display of "logic", which you claim to be such a master of, is that you used an Ad Hominem attack. This is a fallacy in which you reject a persons argument based on that person's character or background. Such a fallacy resembles the following:

Person A makes claim "X".

Person B attacks person A.

Person B therefore claims that argument "X" is invalid.

The reason this is a fallacy, in case you haven't caught on, is that the validity of claim "X" is not dependent on the character of person A.

An example would be:

Tibbs: The sky is blue.

rb5980: You're a fucking idiot, therefore the sky isn't blue.

Graceful dodge. I was just asking.

---

customerjon @gmail.com is where information happens.

You were seriously just curious about how much military experience I have?

You weren't being snidebecause we happen to be on opposite sides as to the value of this operation?

Yeah right.

Ok 600.... 600 less A holes. move on to the next city!

You seem to have a knowledge of battle theory. I was wondering you exprience to see where you developed this knowledge and I was trying to see how you formed.

Nothing snide about it. Yeah I will respond to your service exprience because discussing tatics is great fun for me. Wanna let me know or we just gona dance?;-)

---

customerjon @gmail.com is where information happens.

No doubt there's value in holding cities. But the key isn't can you take over the city -- the key is how long can you hold it. If recent history is any indication - it won't be for long.



You may recognize William Lind as the guy that first expounded 4gw:

http://www.military.com/...,Lind_102104,00.html

Unfortunately, our leaders do not understand the Fourth Generation, so it appears we are about to throw this opportunity away. We continue to bomb and shell Fallujah, which pushes our enemies toward each other. We seem to be readying an all-out assault on the city, which will have the usual result when Goliath defeats David: a moral defeat for Goliath. Many Iraqis will die, the city will be wrecked (as always, we will promise to rebuild it but not do so), and any losses the insurgents suffer will be made up many times over by a flood of new recruits. Never was it more truly said that, "We have met the enemy, and he is us."

Ok. My apologies. I was sure you were making a backhanded comment.

My experience is just from reading too much. I've had a fascination with military strategy since early high school when we studied the German war machine. I was kicking around signing up for ROTC in college, but found out they wouldn't take me because I'm a wheezer and allergic to just about everything.