Have the first name Jan and get to the start line fit and healthy.

there was a tactical moment in yesterday's race where Patrick was beatable. There were 4 up the going up the road and PL had yet to bridge on Dreitz's wheel to the chase pack. At that moment, I was rooting for TO to go with those 4 and take a chance, sort of like Amberger did. He didn't, and he stayed with the chase pack.

It probably wouldn't have worked out but somebody is going to have to take a chance. If TO goes up maybe another goes with him and the gap goes up even more. Hard to say. But to me, that was the moment that decided the race.

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Eric Reid AeroFit | Instagram Portfolio
Aerodynamic Retul Bike Fitting

“You are experiencing the criminal coverup of a foreign backed fascist hostile takeover of a mafia shakedown of an authoritarian religious slow motion coup. Persuade people to vote for Democracy.”

I'm not convinced Jan would have beaten Lange yesterday. Jan had the 70.3 effort in his legs, and I think even without the stress fracture that would have affected him much like Gomez. Had Jan skipped the 70.3 Worlds, he would have still been 'the man to beat' which puts a lot of pressure and focus on him in the race. He would have been the marked man, expected to do a lot of the work, had other PRO's shadowing his every move, and still not had a huge lead on Lange after the bike. Even if Jan can beat him, that doesn't help all the other guys trying to beat Lange.

Patrick only ran 2:41. Jan only needed to run a 2:45 to win with a 4 min lead at T2. If Drietz goes with starky and Jan was there then he could beat Lange.

Or Jan shows up and we get a wind day and the gap after the bike is 10 minutes.

Lange ran 2:41, but how fast do you think he could run? How did he look in the last 10km, at the finish line? Did he have a 2:38 in his legs if he needed it ? I didn't see any footage

A windy day tilts the balance away from Lange. But hoping for a windy day leaves a lot to chance.

Dreitz! Not „Drietz“

 Lange won't three-peat. First-year-married guys rarely win.

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"They're made of latex, not nitroglycerin"

Get their own “Domestique”??

*If* With yesterdays weather I still think Lange wins or at least we have a closer finish with those two pushing each other until one blows up.

Lange was unbeatable yesterday. He timed his peak fitness for this race while everyone were busy killing it in other races. He ran a 2:41 because that is what was needed. He had a 2:35 in him.

What I don’t understand is why Matt Hansen can’t do what Lange does. He is pretty much built in the same mold.

Fair comment but there are two certainties in 2019:
1) However their individual seasons pan out, Lange will be the marked man over Jan for Kona 2019.
2) Jan will not race the 70.3 worlds as part of Kona build up.

Jan did that last year and didn’t’ beat him.

Thats what Jan van Berkel tried to do. It didnt work.

^^ Bingo. I think the sport just changed. Watch for this next year.

+1

This - I dont get it. Even more so that he is used to heat and humidity.

Frodeno was injured going into Kona 2017.

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Pink? Maybe. Maybe not. You decide.

2019 will be interesting, a healthy Frodo, Gomez more experienced, maybe even Ali Brownlee.

Lange needs to be relentless to keep improving himself, I think those prospects are probably what drove him in training.

What will it take to win in 2019, 2020? A full package performance in all 3 disciplines.

2 guys went sub 8 with swims of 52 and 54, this says sub 7:50 is possible at Kona at some point, can Ali stay healthy and handle the heat? Lange shouldn't change much but aiming to swim a minute faster with less effort than yesterday would be a good goal (starting the bike sooner with more gas in the tank).

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___________________________________________
http://en.wikipedia.org/...eoesophageal_fistula
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2020 National Masters Champion - M40-44 - 400m IM
Canadian Record Holder 35-39M & 40-44M - 200 m Butterfly (LCM)

Do you think the 70.3 World's had anything to do with Jan's Stress fracture? in 2015 he won 70.3 World's and won kona and did not get a stress fracture from his 70.3. This year the 70.3 was just the event that snapped it to a fracture, but it was everything that happened in the 2-3 months (if not longer) before. Jan could have skipped 70.3's worlds and gottent the same stress fracture on another run or track workout and we'd be saying something else.

No one will beat Lange until they change the non-draft zones to 20 meters. If Jan can't drop Javi at 70.3, he certainly can't drop Patrick, who is a better cyclist. Jan weighs 165 lbs? That is rail thin for a guy his height, but patrick weighs 140. That is game over from a cooling standpoint. Patrick is literally the perfect athlete for Kona.

Now, I think Cam Wurf needs to train like a marathoner for a year. 70-80 miles weeks and put the bike on the backburner. A guy with his engine can run a lot faster than he has thus far. He is also not very big for an uber biker. If he can run 2:50 off the bike, that could throw a wrench in things on a windy day in Kona.

I think that is spot on. So many athletes have gone after big improvements and it's back fired. In my mind, Lange needs to change nothing. He has the formula, don't change a thing. There is always HUGE temptation to keep tweaking and tweaking. He has won twice in a row. His plan is golden.

Has to be windy for starters. Uber bikers with only that advantage coming off the bike are doomed.

I think its possible but the weather will have to cooperate again. With typical Kona conditions the top guys sit right around 8.

Oh is that all?? How can you possibly say that the everything in the race would happen exactly the same with frodo’s Addition??

I don’t know the answer to OP’s question but Lange will not win next year.

I don’t know the answer to OP’s question but Lange will not win next year.


If you know for a fact that Lange won't win, you must know who will.

I was going to post a thread... is this the next big thing. Big name sponsors can do this. B13 could easily do this. Now that a win gets you in teams can stack the deck have a swim and bike “teammate” for any race.

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http://www.TriScottsdale.org

A precedent has certainly been set.

I hope we don't see it next year, but I won't be surprised if we do.

The way Lange ran yesterday was pretty surreal. It sure felt like he'd be able to cover even a 12 min gap off the bike. Unless Sanders gets a legit coach/grows up or some unknown talent emerges or some injury occurs, don't see him not being a favorite next year. Oh well, perhaps his spouse might decide to make him garden more or have a coaching opinion or simply get preggo right away, that might improve his competitors chances,

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Next races on the schedule: none at the moment

Go back watching the show no way he had that... He was running full gas the last 10 mins he was spent at the end! Nothing left in the tank, was constantly looking at his watch for pacing and to see how far ahead on the record he was. He went as hard as he could, he was suffering look almost no high five coming in the last 0.6 mi, multiple times running too close to the barriers in the same road PNF collapsed many years ago and nobody next to him. He gave it all because you never know when this type of weather will ever comeback again.

Most best runners ran slower, not a fast day in the Marathon.

Hasn't this been tried previously?
https://forum.slowtwitch.com/...or_Sanders_P5729240/

If Lange would have been 12 meters (more or less) behind Dreitz's wheel for most of the bike I would have been disgusted, but that didn't happen, especially coming back from Hawi. I think there was probably a plan for Dreitz to help Lange make sure he got in the front chase pack, but Lange didn't stay in the pack because of Dreitz. Lange was able to do that and run well, unlike Gomez.

That being said, I'm all for increasing the draft zone to 20 meters and I hope it is a very windy day next year.

Dreitz pulled Lange up to the chase pack, and led him out for passes. Then, he went straight to the front of the pack and rode tempo for the rest of the race. Lange sat at the back of the train with Gomez.

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Eric Reid AeroFit | Instagram Portfolio
Aerodynamic Retul Bike Fitting

“You are experiencing the criminal coverup of a foreign backed fascist hostile takeover of a mafia shakedown of an authoritarian religious slow motion coup. Persuade people to vote for Democracy.”

Everyone else in the chase group got the same benefit from Dreitz riding at the point on the way back from Hawi.

I think we should stop thinking about the same people over and over (Sanders, Frodo etc), there are at least four in the top places from yesterday who can beat him without changing anything.

One is Tim O'Donnel (sp?) - he really impressed yesterday, and I think he had the chance at some point to break with the front guys. He missed that - which would have changed the race.
Two is McNamee - swim good, run killer, and he has said in interviews he's still improving his bike. If he gets off the bike with Lange, I think it'll be close.
Three is Currie - an all round axe, as he showed yesterday and in Cairns. And he's still learning.
Four is Aernouts - swim improvements, a bit of bike (and he's been top 10 in Kona before) and he's right up there.

There's hope :)

The women OTOH...


PS edited for Aenouts, as pointed out below

No; I’m taking the field v. Lange.

Impossible to know for sure. Agree the race tipped him over whereas other 70.3 WC races hadn’t.

However I bet he did some top end run sessions in training after Frankfurt specifically focused on the speed needed to win what was always going to be an insanely fast foot race. He really wanted to win that race. He ran way faster than his other 70.3 WCs.

Put that on top of the shape he was already in at Frankfurt, and he’s in a very high risk position.

No 70.3WC and he’s training for 3 months for a 2:45 marathon without trying to get in 1:08 half marathon shape in the middle. Still could have happened of course, but maybe less likely.

Other 70.3WCs followed by Kona he’s raced chances are it was off an unmodified Kona block.

Bart Aernouts was 4 minutes back from Lange. 3.5 of which was due to his swim. If he could find a way to swim a 50-51 he could break away with a faster bike pack (he had the 4th fastest bike split, just 7 seconds slower than Starky). He’s a good enough runner where it could be tough for Lange to chase down from 3 minutes back

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Matt

Dead right, I'm annoyed at myself for not considering that - I was already feeling stupid for not having him as a podium potential, as he's a great runner, and been high in the top 10 before. I'll edit the post above.

Yeah sure... you are da man - I suggest some reading of the history... Look for similar "pro" predictions for example here:

1. https://forum.slowtwitch.com/...tring=lange#p5946607
2. https://forum.slowtwitch.com/..._thread_P6101741-25/
3. https://forum.slowtwitch.com/...tring=lange#p6451299

Last one is my thread - enjoy.

That being said: seems Lange is likely to do 2019 too ;)

Da man? Huh? Im not sure the point of your history lesson. I’m just going with the odds and taking the field. You can take Lange if you want.

It’s not like I’m going out on a limb my “prediction.”

Of course. I plain pointed out that you argue like a lot of "experts" for the last 3 years.

And then there is someone who answers those predictions in the race.

Sorry, its funny still.

Again I’m not claiming to be some great prognosticator. I just think the field won’t allow it to happen a third time or Lange gets hurt or has an off day or any number of other things we can’t possibly fathom right now that will keep him from three-peating. So no I don’t think it’s “likely” he wins again. But favorite now? Yes, he should be.

Ok to be honest I am with you: dynamics will change. Yet somehow Lange seems to improve year by year now. For how long?

Fair question.

+1. Very typical of even professional cyclists with kids. Once the kids happen, you may as well stick a fork in them.

Yes, like Frodeno in 2016.

Brownlee has a far better chance than Sanders.

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___________________________________________
http://en.wikipedia.org/...eoesophageal_fistula
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cerebral_palsy
2020 National Masters Champion - M40-44 - 400m IM
Canadian Record Holder 35-39M & 40-44M - 200 m Butterfly (LCM)

I thought Javier Gomez? Ohh nm,...

That's the key. You had someone driving the train at full gas in order to keep the gap down. Typically no one wants to be the sucker at the front of the train which allows the pace to drop and the gap at T2 to grow to 10 minutes+ like last year. In fairness to Dreitz, he also had a pretty good run, so if his job was to be a domestique and sacrifice his race to keep Lange close, he did it and still held up for an awfully strong run.

But this brings us back to the original question. How does the field stop 0:50, 4:14, 2:41? You don't. That's damn near perfection. My gut says a 20 meter draft zone changes things, but barring that, you only hope to be able to match him, and that means stepping up the run game for anyone who hopes to be able to.

I agree about the last 10k he went hard. He was chasing the record. But the first 18 miles, he was cruising. He knew there was nobody in front or behind him that would threaten him. He just kept it under control to not implode. If Jan was there, he would go the first 2/3 a bit faster.

Brilliant move by Frodo to put this whole "Domestique" thing out there. Nobody would have had any suspicion whatsoever or would be talking about domestiques now if it had not been for Frodos guest commentary. You gotta hand it to him for someone who was unable to participate at all he for sure did capitalize on his situation to the maximum extend.

He mentioned it himself in ZDF interview after the race. Put the pressure on him as the big favorite pre-race. He does not like to be in the spotlights. His expectations before the race to be at least place 10.

And this is why everyone was so high on Gomez... on paper he's the fastest runner in the field, along with Jan. Their ITU chops really show. We just didn't expect for Gomez to have as steep of a Kona learning curve as he did, which may have been nearsighted on our part in hindsight.

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Eric Reid AeroFit | Instagram Portfolio
Aerodynamic Retul Bike Fitting

“You are experiencing the criminal coverup of a foreign backed fascist hostile takeover of a mafia shakedown of an authoritarian religious slow motion coup. Persuade people to vote for Democracy.”

TBH Lange is the King of Kona now - far ahead of Frodeno. Simply since he has also run course record, 2xcourse record and sub-8 Kona under his belt. And please dont start by explaining about the shaman Lange hired to cheat on the weather too.

Sorry Frodeno just sounds bitter and disappointed in his fanboidom, when he couldnt race.

And while at it? Why was Frodo unable to race? Overtraining? Wanting too much? Or just coincedence? Rly?

Starting healthy in the race and crossing the finish line too is actually a discipline in its own.

Agreed. But, My gut—actually history—tells me the winner won’t need to go 7:52 to win next year. Maybe we will see sub 8s at Kona now but still not every year. The island will take care of that if it needs to!!

Gomez, Frodo and Brownlee all might show up to this race next year with everything dialled in and all have a good day.

I wouldn't be declaring Lange as unbeatable just yet!

I didn’t; I actually said he won’t win next year,

I agree. Conditions will eliminate 7:52 from happening again for quite some time. But, Kona dynamic has changed. It is now a race from the gun. Gone are the Deboom and Reid years where you could bike moderately and run 2:48 to win, or maybe try that but then not catch Stadler.

Completely agree with this comment re: race from the gun. The margin of error for any pro is damn near zero if they want to win.

Sorry mate I replied to your post when I ment to reply to the thread in general.

we don't need to think of Kona as a raw finish time, rather it's all about the bunch. Time behind the bunch on the swim, time ahead of the bunch on the bike, etc. It's going to take a 2:50 marathon (ala Normann Stadler) off of a 10min lead off the bike.

Of all the athletes currently racing, Lionel Sanders, Sebastian Keinle, and Jan Frodeno are the only ones who fit that mold, and only Jan has the swim to be present when the tactics go down. Lionel only has one card to play at the moment, unless he can move up one pack and swim with Sebbie.

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Eric Reid AeroFit | Instagram Portfolio
Aerodynamic Retul Bike Fitting

“You are experiencing the criminal coverup of a foreign backed fascist hostile takeover of a mafia shakedown of an authoritarian religious slow motion coup. Persuade people to vote for Democracy.”

My gut says a 20 meter draft zone changes things, but barring that, you only hope to be able to match him, and that means stepping up the run game for anyone who hopes to be able to.


I agree. The only way other top pros beat Lange is to work on their running.

Maybe it's not the case that Gomez has a steep learning curve for Kona ahead of himself, but maybe he has his best years as a triathlete behind him? While there are athletes who are still at their peak at late 30s or even into their 40s, not everyone's the same. Hellriegel and Faris won Kona aged 26 and 27, respectively, and by the time they reached their mid 30s, they simply couldn't compete for the win at Kona any more. I don't think anyone of us knows...

I unfortunately think of the three you mentioned, only Jan fits the mold. I do think that Gomez definitely can improve a lot, and learn how to run well off the bike, and I think Aernaut also has a few min to improve, mainly on his swim. McNamee of course is also a very solid athlete. I also think there are others who potentially can step up another level, Currie and Wurf can contend in the future, especially if conditions are different.
As an aside, how awesome wasn't TO's finish? Being carried from the finish line is nothing short of epic, madame Pele doesn't take prisoners...

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Terrible Tuesday’s Triathlon

Although Gomez will probably win a few Ironman races here and there I'm unsure he'll ever be a contender at Kona. His window is already closing. He'll be 36 next time around, the oldest ever winner was Crowie...yes Crowie is still competitive now. But he's the outlier...yet what we've seen is the the Age sweet spot seems to be 32ish on the men's side and if you win you have a greater chance at winning again.

I know this was Lange's only fifth Ironman...but dude's been injured the last two seasons.

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Washed up footy player turned Triathlete.

If I'm Brownlee, I'm watching yesterday and saying fu*k this, I'm going to Tokyo.

As for Gomez, I'd love to say that he's going to win one day, but he was seriously exposed yesterday. Getting dropped out of a group that contained Lange, on the easiest and fastest bike day in history, does not bode well for his future chances. He's off the bike after 100k if it's windy.

And I've watched the Javier Gomez 'Always Faster' youtube video 6,352 times (while touching myself), so this is coming from a Gomez fanboy.

Brownlee should to go Tokyo, he's still young enough. He's already showed what he can do at 70.3 Win Tokyo, take a layoff and work on long course. Pretty simple.

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Washed up footy player turned Triathlete.

Brownlee is too fragile for a full distance IMHO. I cant get all the critique of Lange. Had Dreitz been not there, someone else would try to pull and follow Wurf/Starky. Yes, Frodo had a great season, but he hasnt get to race and to undermine Lange’s amazing result seems unfair.

You get the field, I get the podium (top 3 spots) and 2-1 odds, sound fair? Similar to my bet with Monty, but I’m not asking for 5 spots, just 3. Conditions are simple: Lange has to make the start line. Sound like a bet?

Next year’s race is a loooooong ways away, so in theory I should wait on a bet like this or get even better odds...but I’m a gambler. Lol

I don’t like Lange, but he is built for this race and will always be in contention sans a catastrophe.

Nope; I’m betting against all who think he wins so I’m banking on the possibility that he doesn’t even make it to the start line

Well T-O will probably never win Kona. He doesnt have the run or the bike for it.
But others can beat Lange.
Wurf needs 15-20 minutes
For guys like Kienle and Sanders its about the gap , 7-10 minutes probably needed.
For Frodeno its probably enough with 3-5 minutes.
Gomez could probably get off bike with him or just few minutes ahead if he gets his run dialed in for long course. Same thing with A.Brownlee.
Bart, Currie and some other may need more than Frodeno but less than Kienle.

Maybe to try to isolate Lange or make him work harder

🤣🤣🤣 I can't stop laughing!!!

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Speed kills unless you have speed skills!!!

T-O just had his best race ever at 38. He would have been the oldest to win it.

His best finish was third in 2015...8:18:50. This year he raced an 8:03:17 which is 11 minutes faster than Frodo's 2015 time.

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Washed up footy player turned Triathlete.

Where’s the proof of this? It’s all rumour after the fact. I think he over bikes trying to limit his losses to Sanders and co and gap Lange. This year he was ready for anything until he broke down.

I agree with this, but I would have said this before yesterday.

Ali should float (if physically possible) between 70.3 and oly distance.

Gomez has managed this for a few years, without effecting his form much (I'm not saying Gomez and Brownlee are the same)

That 3rd gold in Tokyo is much more legacy enduring IMO.

I don't think Jan would have beat Lange last year or this year. Lange deserves much more credit than he gets.

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wovebike.com | Wove on instagram

Crosswinds.

+1

PL said in post race interviews he 'worked very hard' (or something to that effect) to stay on the wheel of Dreitz. Expose PL on the bike like Macca et al did to CA in 2010. Guys like TO or Jan could have ridden with the breakaway on Saturday - needed to be in the move though.

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Coaching - Future Endurance

Shit! Somebody shou‘ve told Lionel. That‘s why his performance was all over the place.

@OP Please rename thread: „How does the field try to beat Lionel in 2019“ because another Lionel thread is what ST needs right now.

Why don't they like it? I would assume he is playing to his strengths.....swim well, don't over extend on the bike...out run your contenders....

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"see the world as it is not as you want it to be"

If Sanders/Kienle/Wurf any other good bikers get ahead of Lange/Gomez and then have a team mate in the group with Lange and Gomez and ride at the head of that group and slowly bring the pace down so Lange and/or Gomez have to take over and ride with their head in the wind, or at a slower pace. And other athletes riding with Lange should realize that they have no chance at winning as long as they don't force him to do work at the front of that group.

Newbie here. Can someone explain why strategies like grouping up and riding in chase packs can affect performance in any way (aside from the swim)? Is this a way of saying drafting is actually happening despite it not being allowed, or is it more of a way of playing mental games to mess with someone's head? How can you "pull" someone along if they're not drafting?

For example, what difference does it make if the front bike group pushed the pace more and separated more from Lange? If Lange just does his own race shouldn't his time be about the same at the end regardless? In other words, why does anything anyone else in the field does affect Lange's performance as long as he still rides at the power/HR/pace he knows he can maintain?

The time doesnt matter since conditions varies a lot. Good race for him, podium and top 5 is great for T-O
Gomez has a bigger chance for the win. Not saying he will but his potential is bigger

On low wind days there is still a small but significant draft effect even if everyone is riding at legal distances. This effect can be much larger if the camera truck and other race vehicles do not stay out of the way. There can also be help from pacing off of other competitors, but this is more of a psychological effect.

These factors are very important to the pro race as they do not care so much about the time, they are there to beat the other pros. They all have a good idea of their own run pace as well of that of their top competitors, so a lot of the bike segment is all about arriving at T2 close enough to run down the leaders, or about getting enough gap to hold off the fastest runners.

Having somebody like Dreitz lead a second pack can be critical as it can reduce the time gap to the lead bike group, provide a draft, yet make sure that the second group is not at such a high pace that Lange's legs get trashed.

Sacrifice some chickens to the wind gods.

Brilliant saltiness. But salt is brilliant by default, so it was out of his control.

Oxymoron much?
Also, check the available Strava files and tell us how they had both an easy AND fastest day out there.

The solution to a more fair race is very easy a 20m no drafting zone (rear of bike to front of the following bike) and consistent fair enforcement of the rules. If my wife would let me, Ironmanbfly me over and accommodate me, I would go be a marshall for free. I would go and crush dreams of cheaters no problem. I've got no problem calling a spade a spade. Towing team mates up to the front at a very questionable distance...no problem right...#bethedrafttaker...similar # to something I may have seen on Instagram.