I have traveled extensively all over the US and abroad for work, through the pandemic. I just came back from a personal trip to visit family in France. I have been tested many times and always negative.

I don't have any direct answer to your question, as far as quantifying the chances of testing positive. But, I think you can minimize your chances by following recommended rules of distancing, masking and hand washing.

I also recommend your research how to get the EU QR code which will make your life easier in France (We were asked to show it twice, once at a restaurant and once at a hotel). The best info I got was through the French consulate Facebook page.

Good luck, have a great race and don't hesitate to reach out if you need help with anything.