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Re: Quantifying the chances of having a positive Covid test near the end of trip to Annecy, France for a race at the end of October [Mark Lemmon]
Looking at the odds (ref.: https://www.nlr.org/...a-on-board-aircraft/ ) there is probably a 1:4000 chance of getting Covid on a given flight (rough est.). Let's call it 1:2000 since if either of you tests positive you're sol. That would put the risk adjusted value of insurance at $1 ($2 round trip). If you can self insure (i.e. you can afford the $2k if it comes to that) it makes sense to vs. buying insurance.

Realistically, you can significantly reduce these odds by using N95 masks for the flight, and when you cannot socially distance in the airport. Also, avoid indoor dining and non-socially-distanced outdoor dining and your odds of getting Covid are <<1% for the trip.

On the flight, only lift your mask momentarily to take a swig of water or a bite of energy bar (i.e. don't remove your mask for 15min for a meal mid-flight). Try to do these at times when those close to you are not maskless (i.e. during meals or drink service).

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Last edited by: Titanflexr: Sep 17, 21 17:13

Edit Log:

  • Post edited by Titanflexr (Dawson Saddle) on Sep 17, 21 17:13