vikingmd wrote:
echappist wrote:
Your anecdotes are perfect illustrations of confirmation bias. HS lond distance track runners purposely seek out the sport are i would assume are at least 1 or 1.5 SD better than what a moderately active person could accomplish.
Kona KQ, leadville, now we talking at least 2 SD over the average competitor.
4.5 w/kg, this will get you to the front of a cat-3 field and in line for a cat-2 upgrade. None of the above is average
It could be selection bias, but most people that I hear saying they can't aren't limited by their genetic potential. They are most often limited by something else. That is not to say those other reasons are not perfectly valid. If someone prioritizes work or family or other hobbies, that is perfectly understandable. I have no qualms with that. However, the OP asked what the limits were for the average person based upon intrinsic limiters not extrinsic limiters. I would argue that many more people are limited by extrinsic limiters.
Your argument about averages and standard deviations is based upon what people are doing not about what they are capable of.
Take your average Joe and immerse him in intense training with progressive building of his volume over 5-7 years. Add in meticulous focus on nutrition, recovery, injury prevention and sports psychology. Most would exceed what normal people would think is possible by enormous margins.
I am not arguing against the power of genetics because genetics and epi-genetics likely play giant parts in how fast an athlete progresses and what their maximum capability is. However, many people underestimate the power of simple hard work. Unfortunately, you will not find a study of unselected participants randomly assigned to 5-7 year training plans, thus, I am forced to rely on anecdote to illustrate my point.
Despite agreeing with the whole hard work thing completely, I still think you're vastly overestimating people's genetic ability at least in running.
I used to think just like you did, but it's really selection bias. Realistically, after your first year of honest serious 30mpw-ish run training, you will be within less than 3 minutes of your potential best 5k time. The elite stud runners who run 14-15 min 5ks, were not 22 min 5k runners after a year of run training, chipping away at it until they were 14-15; they were 18 minutes from the get-go with 30mpwish, if not faster, and got faster from there.
You might think all those MOPer M30-40 guys in the local HIM triathlons are just terrible at training, but it's not true. I've seen quite a few of them now with coaches, regular attendance at the weekly speedwork sessions where they run all-out, and keep solid logs of their 12+hr per week training. These guys still run 23+ minute open 5ks, and many (most) of them will NEVER run 18:xx 5ks, even with professional volume, even if some of them will be able to with that kind of training.
There's a masters swimmer on BT who had a private qualified coach, swam 12k/week at one point for quite awhile, and has raced for years, took various additional weekend coaching sessions, and said she never went faster than 2:00/100 in the POOL for distance. Some people just don't have it. Just like there's a point fast end of the bell curve, there's a slow pointy slow end.