Interesting analysis. Did you consider the physiological effects of going anaerobic in a TT? Presumably if this race was on a flat course you would do it at your Lactate Threshold effort. To increase power 5% on the hills you would have to increase your output above your LT. This approach would have you constantly fluctuating to above LT and below LT efforts.

I have heard that in longer races, like Ironman races, that every minute you spend above LT on the bike costs you much more than a minute on the run due to increased fatigue.

What about in a shorter race, like a 45 minute TT? How bad is it to go above LT?

(My approach has always been to make myself stay below or at my calculated LT for the first 25%, ride as fast and smooth as I can for the middle 50%, ignoring calculated LT during this period, then consciously riding well above my LT for the last 25%. However, this approach is based on my own experience, not science, so I am curious what others do and what science says.)