My predictions on triathlon in North America going forward:
1. Decrease (continued) in participant numbers in triathlon
2. Decrease in the number of IM 140.6 events ($800! C'mon!) I think this will be a significant decrease. A lot of the boomers are breaking down physically and the millenials are not filling the void whatsoever.
3. Increase in the number of IM 70.3 events. Big increase!
4. Increase in the price of IM 70.3 events (see #3 unfortunately) $400-$500 for an IM 70.3 is right around the corner and people will pay it. That's half of $800 right?
5. Companies will continue to try to unseat Ironman such as Toughman, Challenge and Rev3. They will not succeed
6. SwimRun will have difficulties. Reasons: Triathletes already have expensive tribikes. Do you let it collect dust? Also, the partner idea makes it logistically difficult for most. Finally, the costs are pretty significant and close to IM 70.3 prices. Ouch!
7. At some point people are going to realize the super bikes are for sponsored pros, because they're so damn expensive and the cost/benefit isn't there. The bike industry will focus more on mass producing quality time trial bikes at an entry level price. Maybe even some new companies emerge with very competitive starter pricing. Reality has to kick in eventually. I think this will happen sooner than later.
Just my thoughts based on observations. I could be totally wrong.
HuffNPuff wrote:
If there were 1/3 fewer IMs today then that would still be a boat load more than there were about 10 years ago. And 70.3s only started around 2006 so you could cut those in half and it would still be a massive increase. If your perspective is only from North America, and only from around 2012 to present then yeah, it might look like the sport is dying. But I did my first triathlon in 1980 and to me the sport is massively larger.
The bike issue is a red herring. There are several threads on ST telling you that we are past peak aero. The independent wind tunnel test results published last summer showed you that the most expensive super bikes give you hardly anything more than a standard Felt. People are paying $1000s more for virtually no benefit...that's the lesson if you read those threads.
What else do I see? How about massive growth in XTreme triathlons. I think Norseman started in 2002 and I can name about a dozen more that have sprung up as IM has become mundane for some. And look what Otillo has done to promote swim-run events around the globe.
Why does triathlon have to be cool and trendy? Running and swimming aren't cool and trendy...it's been the same basic thing for eons and yet people still do them. By adding the bike, triathlon will ALWAYS be more expensive. And with the time commitment, it will never be a sport for the masses - thankfully!! That doesn't mean it can't be improved, but the hyperbole around the death of triathlon is so overstated that it gets tiresome.