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Re: Bold Prediction - Triathlon to Rebound in 2018? [JasoninHalifax] [ In reply to ]
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I've always just used my old 40L mountaineering rucksack - remove the frame and it rolls-up into a street wear bag if required. I've never understood people balancing the big plastic box, or spening $150 on a Tri specific bag.

29 years and counting
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Re: Bold Prediction - Triathlon to Rebound in 2018? [Cmore] [ In reply to ]
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Welcome to the triathlon community. So sorry you had a negative first experience. Please don't leave us quite yet. Most of us (*most*of the time) are really pretty nice. Of course there are a few bad apples, but it really is a great community and promotes a heathly fitness lifestyle that is very rewarding.

Where are you located? Just wondering.

Again, welcome and please give the tri community another chance!

David
* Ironman for Life! (Blog) * IM Everyday Hero Video * Daggett Shuler Law *
Disclaimer: I have personal and professional relationships with many athletes, vendors, and organizations in the triathlon world.
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Re: Bold Prediction - Triathlon to Rebound in 2018? [Fishbum] [ In reply to ]
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I think it is more a cultural thing that has evolved as the sport has evolved. Which goes hand in hand with some of the comments up on the thread about "soul," fun, etc. Let me share the "positive" people experience from that tri. The race organizers had a pre-race bike ride the weekend before the race. My "tri" bike is a 1987 Centurion Dave Scott Ironman with the awesome Fushia and Maize paint scheme. I am rolling out slowly on the pre-ride enjoying the scene around me. This pack of young geared up hardcores come slowly passing by. They are looking at me/bike and giving me a mean sneer. The last rider looks to be about my age. (50s) He is some type of mentor/coach. He takes a look and says, "sweet bike! I used to have one of those." He then tells the group to slow down and let me pass so they can take another look at the bike. As they go back by, I latch onto the back. The mentor/coach begins this history lesson on the sport of Tri. He's telling them about how it all began. He's telling them about Dave Scott, Scott Tinley, Mark Allen, Scott Molina, Mike Pigg, etc, etc. He's telling them about how the bike I am riding helped make the sport what it is. Those sneers changed to grins and questions back to the mentor. The group eventually got serious and rode off. That history lesson probably did more for that pack of youngsters that day than the training ride. The sport needs to get back to where it came from.

Now for what turned out to be the most fun part of the whole event. The race was on a Sunday. They had a pre swim on Friday evening. The swim was in a river with a current. On the pre swim, we were supposed to go in at the exit point, swim up current to the start point, then swim back. 650M swim. There had been a lot of rain. The river was up and the current was strong. The current was so strong that the swimmers were not making any progress. It was awesome, like swimming in a Swim Spa! Only 5-10 swimmers made it to the start point/turnaround point within 30 minutes. Most had not gone over 100 yards. I made it about 50 yards. I would swim for 5 minutes, look up and still be about the same place. The swim director blew a whistle after 30 minutes and told everyone to turn around and come back. It sure made for an easy swim during the event. If you had trouble, you could just float and make it to the exit point easy. After that Friday swim, the rest of the event was fairly dull.
Last edited by: Cmore: Jan 25, 18 8:29
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Re: Bold Prediction - Triathlon to Rebound in 2018? [Cmore] [ In reply to ]
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Nice ride! I wanted one of those back in the day. Nice bike, hope you were wearing your Bell V1 Pro, mesh backed cycling gloves, and Oakley Factory Pilots to complete the look.

I didn't get the Centurion, but I did get a purple Miele in about '88 or 89, with white Sante' components.

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Last edited by: JasoninHalifax: Jan 25, 18 7:56
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Re: Bold Prediction - Triathlon to Rebound in 2018? [JasoninHalifax] [ In reply to ]
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JasoninHalifax wrote:
Cmore wrote:
JasoninHalifax wrote:
Cmore wrote:


often the races don't allow a bag of any sort in the transition. You take your stuff out, lay it out on the ground (on a towel), so the only space you need is literally the width of your handlebars.

That tends to be true in the larger races. But at the local races in my area you see the buckets, the pans of water for rinsing feet, and all manner of stuff ... it doesn't phase me at all as long as the person doesn't take any of my space or isn't pushing bikes down the rack to make room for their camp. :)
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Re: Bold Prediction - Triathlon to Rebound in 2018? [JasoninHalifax] [ In reply to ]
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Purple with white Sante, styling! Do you still have the bike? One of my customers was a real hardcore tri athlete. Married/ no kids/wife triathlete as well. He is 51 now. About 3 years ago his job changed so that he could not put the effort into Tri anymore. The Tri club that he belonged to had a group of people that were in the same boat. The interest was waning and they didn't know what to do. They ended up pulling out/finding old steel bikes, putting 1X on them, and making everyone in the group run very similar wheel/equipment setups. Basically created a "Merckx" group within the Tri club.The equipment issue was eliminated with a focus on the athlete instead.Times were not important. The only thing that was important was beating the others in the group and the needling/trash talk that goes with it. The group enjoyed a renaissance and became a popular part of the Tri club. It kept a lot of their members in the sport.

For those higher ups reading this thread, I think there is a niche/need there. It doesn't necessarily have to be "vintage" Merckx. More like Weekend Warrior. As it is, everyone has to race open class equipment wise. People don't want to be racking their bike staring at a Diamondback Andean knowing they are going against that rider.
Last edited by: Cmore: Jan 25, 18 8:30
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Re: Bold Prediction - Triathlon to Rebound in 2018? [Cmore] [ In reply to ]
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I wish I still had it, but no... It was actually a size too big, replaced it in the early '90's with a Serotta. Still have that one hanging in the garage. Just needs a couple of parts to get it back on the road.

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Re: Bold Prediction - Triathlon to Rebound in 2018? [HuffNPuff] [ In reply to ]
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HuffNPuff wrote:
JasoninHalifax wrote:
Cmore wrote:
JasoninHalifax wrote:
Cmore wrote:


often the races don't allow a bag of any sort in the transition. You take your stuff out, lay it out on the ground (on a towel), so the only space you need is literally the width of your handlebars.


That tends to be true in the larger races. But at the local races in my area you see the buckets, the pans of water for rinsing feet, and all manner of stuff ... it doesn't phase me at all as long as the person doesn't take any of my space or isn't pushing bikes down the rack to make room for their camp. :)

If there's space, it doesn't bother me, I've seen it done. Just that there are much better alternatives than the bucket, that's all.

Usually the races around here, at least the last few I've been to, we've all just had to stash our bags in the grass / trees just outside the transition area. The racks were pretty full. No big deal, I don't need anything from the bag during the race anyway.

Anyway, didn't mean this bucket thing to be such a big deal.

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2020 National Masters Champion - M50-54 - 50m Butterfly
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Re: Bold Prediction - Triathlon to Rebound in 2018? [Cmore] [ In reply to ]
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I commute daily on my Centurion, which was the first "tri" bike I bought in the mid '80s. It's the yellow Accordo model that was a bit cheaper than the Dave Scott signature model. There's no excuse for mean-spirited unsolicited advice from fellow participants. Sorry you have had to deal with that. Slappy wrote that running is his favorite. I agree and that's one of the reasons that I continue to do triathlons. Swimming and cycling and competing in tris provide me additional athletic outlets other than running. If I wouldn't have started doing tris in the '80s I probably wouldn't be enjoying running now as much as I do. I likely would have become burned out, chronically injured or bored with running. So that makes it worth dealing with some of the unwelcoming folks doing tris. :)

P.S. There were attempts when the first aero bars and disc wheels became popular to segregate participants using those tech advantages from the rest of the field in triathlons. I did a very popular tri in Ohio in the late '80s (Caesar Creek) where there was a separate division at least one year for those with the fancy new technology. Obviously, that didn't stick. It may be worth trying it again, but I doubt it will work. Just look at the ads surrounding this forum. :)
Last edited by: Mark Lemmon: Jan 25, 18 9:57
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Re: Bold Prediction - Triathlon to Rebound in 2018? [Fleck] [ In reply to ]
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Triathlon is a dying sport in North America. The predominant race series throughout the world is Ironman, and many perceive that you aren't even an athlete, if you're not doing IM 140.6 events. The average entry fee for an IM 140.6 is $800. $800 for one damn race! That doesn't even cover any additional expenses associated with the race or sport. If you are a young person, you're thinking I can buy an iphone X for around the same price. That same race is not insured at that fee and what if there is a weather issue resulting in modification of the race you're so heavily invested in? Don't even get me started on bike costs and newbies rolling up to sprint tri's on $5,000-$10,000 super bikes to bucket list one and done. Just ridiculous!

As well, most folks have a hard enough time getting off the couch or finding 30 minutes at a local Planet Fitness for $10/month. Are those same younger folks really going to be keen on spending 10-20 hours a week training their asses off? Where is the appeal?

Finally, there is a marketing issue. Triathlon is boring to watch, especially on TV. It will never be an ESPN sport. Part of the draw in athletics is that folks aspire to be athletes. If triathletes are perceived as being good at exercising, but not real athletes in North America then how does it have a cool factor of say a LeBron James or Tom Brady? Face it, if it is not media (TV, internet, etc.) friendly then you can't market it to the masses.
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Re: Bold Prediction - Triathlon to Rebound in 2018? [mwanner1] [ In reply to ]
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Finally, there is a marketing issue. Triathlon is boring to watch, especially on TV. It will never be an ESPN sport. Part of the draw in athletics is that folks aspire to be athletes. If triathletes are perceived as being good at exercising, but not real athletes in North America then how does it have a cool factor of say a LeBron James or Tom Brady? Face it, if it is not media (TV, internet, etc.) friendly then you can't market it to the masses.

--------

Funny thing, that the format that works for TV and fans to attend the easiest, is hated by large majority of AG athletes- DL sprint triathlons.

Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II
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Re: Bold Prediction - Triathlon to Rebound in 2018? [mwanner1] [ In reply to ]
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The media / TV friendly thing is a bit of a red herring, IMO. lots of sports are or have been popular but aren't TV friendly. The thing is that the sport has to be accessible for new entrants, and fun for people to stick around.

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Re: Bold Prediction - Triathlon to Rebound in 2018? [JasoninHalifax] [ In reply to ]
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Triathlon is one of the absolutely very few sports where the AG triathlon events are pretty much the complete different type of event than the professional event that can be marketed for TV. DL events really are about the only event that the sport can market to ESPN/Fox etc. IM events would have to be so edited to ever make tv. DL sprint legal tri could and is done in less than 90 mins.

Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II
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Re: Bold Prediction - Triathlon to Rebound in 2018? [mwanner1] [ In reply to ]
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mwanner1 wrote:
Triathlon is a dying sport in North America.

Exactly! In 5 years there won't be any Ironman or 70.3 events; Kona will be gone and WTC completely out of business. Triathlon will have gone the way of outdoor rollerblade races from the early 90s...you'll be lucky to find 10 whole triathlons in the entire country. Dead I tell you!
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Re: Bold Prediction - Triathlon to Rebound in 2018? [HuffNPuff] [ In reply to ]
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There seem to be more IM 140.6 and 70.3 races being eliminated than added. The sport has been retracting and not expanding for several years now. I don’t think IM will be gone tomorrow, but it very likely will be a lot smaller in the next 10-20 years.

Perhaps it will result in a re-genesis if the sport once it bottoms out. I don’t think the rebirth will occur when bikes are still running $5,000-$10,000 and race entries are $800. I foresee a bottoming out and then a new grassroots movement, but the sport will have to undergo dramatic changes from where it is now to re-establish itself as fun, cool, trendy and reasonably affordable to the masses.

HuffNPuff wrote:
mwanner1 wrote:
Triathlon is a dying sport in North America.

Exactly! In 5 years there won't be any Ironman or 70.3 events; Kona will be gone and WTC completely out of business. Triathlon will have gone the way of outdoor rollerblade races from the early 90s...you'll be lucky to find 10 whole triathlons in the entire country. Dead I tell you!
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Re: Bold Prediction - Triathlon to Rebound in 2018? [mwanner1] [ In reply to ]
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It’s a lot like Harley Davidson. Those bikes were originally for gritty bad ass bikers. Now the only ones who can afford them are doctors, attorneys, business owners, etc. At some point in part to escalating costs the company lost its identity. I think triathlon is getting close to being in a similar position. Hey they do sell a $20,000 Ventum which is about the price of a Harley. Lol!

mwanner1 wrote:
There seem to be more IM 140.6 and 70.3 races being eliminated than added. The sport has been retracting and not expanding for several years now. I don’t think IM will be gone tomorrow, but it very likely will be a lot smaller in the next 10-20 years.

Perhaps it will result in a re-genesis if the sport once it bottoms out. I don’t think the rebirth will occur when bikes are still running $5,000-$10,000 and race entries are $800. I foresee a bottoming out and then a new grassroots movement, but the sport will have to undergo dramatic changes from where it is now to re-establish itself as fun, cool, trendy and reasonably affordable to the masses.

HuffNPuff wrote:
mwanner1 wrote:
Triathlon is a dying sport in North America.

Exactly! In 5 years there won't be any Ironman or 70.3 events; Kona will be gone and WTC completely out of business. Triathlon will have gone the way of outdoor rollerblade races from the early 90s...you'll be lucky to find 10 whole triathlons in the entire country. Dead I tell you!
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Re: Bold Prediction - Triathlon to Rebound in 2018? [mwanner1] [ In reply to ]
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If there were 1/3 fewer IMs today then that would still be a boat load more than there were about 10 years ago. And 70.3s only started around 2006 so you could cut those in half and it would still be a massive increase. If your perspective is only from North America, and only from around 2012 to present then yeah, it might look like the sport is dying. But I did my first triathlon in 1980 and to me the sport is massively larger.

The bike issue is a red herring. There are several threads on ST telling you that we are past peak aero. The independent wind tunnel test results published last summer showed you that the most expensive super bikes give you hardly anything more than a standard Felt. People are paying $1000s more for virtually no benefit...that's the lesson if you read those threads.

What else do I see? How about massive growth in XTreme triathlons. I think Norseman started in 2002 and I can name about a dozen more that have sprung up as IM has become mundane for some. And look what Otillo has done to promote swim-run events around the globe.

Why does triathlon have to be cool and trendy? Running and swimming aren't cool and trendy...it's been the same basic thing for eons and yet people still do them. By adding the bike, triathlon will ALWAYS be more expensive. And with the time commitment, it will never be a sport for the masses - thankfully!! That doesn't mean it can't be improved, but the hyperbole around the death of triathlon is so overstated that it gets tiresome.
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Re: Bold Prediction - Triathlon to Rebound in 2018? [HuffNPuff] [ In reply to ]
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I think we've reached the peak that the entire tri industry + athletes is "IM or bust" and sorta going back to the basics of "just go compete", whether short/long, anything you want just do it. And yes the sport as a whole is still IM centric, but I think we are at a point where we've seen the "oh shit" moments, and turning more to just race/train. Want to do short course, go for it, want to do LC go for it. But even races around here in NC...it's turning into...want to do a tri? Great we got that....want to just swim/bike...we got that too, want to run/bike, we got that now all at the same event.

So will that turn numbers around? Eh I dont even know or think it even matters...well I mean it matters, but I think we are getting more efficient and that's likely more important than so dependent on 1 and doners, etc.

Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II
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Re: Bold Prediction - Triathlon to Rebound in 2018? [B_Doughtie] [ In reply to ]
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I know a number of collegiate triathletes and most don't really care about ironman and such. Many are of the opinion that they might do one someday just to say they did, but most are primarily short course and like it that way.

I'm tired, so if that didn't make sense, all I'm saying is that in my experience I agree, we're moving away from being so IM-centric.
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Re: Bold Prediction - Triathlon to Rebound in 2018? [HuffNPuff] [ In reply to ]
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My predictions on triathlon in North America going forward:

1. Decrease (continued) in participant numbers in triathlon
2. Decrease in the number of IM 140.6 events ($800! C'mon!) I think this will be a significant decrease. A lot of the boomers are breaking down physically and the millenials are not filling the void whatsoever.
3. Increase in the number of IM 70.3 events. Big increase!
4. Increase in the price of IM 70.3 events (see #3 unfortunately) $400-$500 for an IM 70.3 is right around the corner and people will pay it. That's half of $800 right?
5. Companies will continue to try to unseat Ironman such as Toughman, Challenge and Rev3. They will not succeed
6. SwimRun will have difficulties. Reasons: Triathletes already have expensive tribikes. Do you let it collect dust? Also, the partner idea makes it logistically difficult for most. Finally, the costs are pretty significant and close to IM 70.3 prices. Ouch!
7. At some point people are going to realize the super bikes are for sponsored pros, because they're so damn expensive and the cost/benefit isn't there. The bike industry will focus more on mass producing quality time trial bikes at an entry level price. Maybe even some new companies emerge with very competitive starter pricing. Reality has to kick in eventually. I think this will happen sooner than later.

Just my thoughts based on observations. I could be totally wrong.

HuffNPuff wrote:
If there were 1/3 fewer IMs today then that would still be a boat load more than there were about 10 years ago. And 70.3s only started around 2006 so you could cut those in half and it would still be a massive increase. If your perspective is only from North America, and only from around 2012 to present then yeah, it might look like the sport is dying. But I did my first triathlon in 1980 and to me the sport is massively larger.

The bike issue is a red herring. There are several threads on ST telling you that we are past peak aero. The independent wind tunnel test results published last summer showed you that the most expensive super bikes give you hardly anything more than a standard Felt. People are paying $1000s more for virtually no benefit...that's the lesson if you read those threads.

What else do I see? How about massive growth in XTreme triathlons. I think Norseman started in 2002 and I can name about a dozen more that have sprung up as IM has become mundane for some. And look what Otillo has done to promote swim-run events around the globe.

Why does triathlon have to be cool and trendy? Running and swimming aren't cool and trendy...it's been the same basic thing for eons and yet people still do them. By adding the bike, triathlon will ALWAYS be more expensive. And with the time commitment, it will never be a sport for the masses - thankfully!! That doesn't mean it can't be improved, but the hyperbole around the death of triathlon is so overstated that it gets tiresome.
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Re: Bold Prediction - Triathlon to Rebound in 2018? [mwanner1] [ In reply to ]
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he bike industry will focus more on mass producing quality time trial bikes at an entry level price. Maybe even some new companies emerge with very competitive starter pricing.

Remember the days when companies offered aluminum bikes at reasonable prices? No reason they couldn't have a semi-decent tri-bike now starting at the $1500 mark or below. Use standard components, regular (round) seatpost, spec with Sora and microshift shifters.

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Re: Bold Prediction - Triathlon to Rebound in 2018? [mwanner1] [ In reply to ]
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Those are mostly fair predictions although I don't see the cost of 70.3s hitting $500 anywhere in the near future. For what it's worth, my cost to enter IM South Africa last year including the processing fee in U.S. dollars was only $417 thanks to the exchange rate.

I definitely agree on the swim-run thing. The partner requirement will keep that sport from getting too much bigger. But isn't great that it NOW exists and people have the option?

FYI - the millennials aren't really filling any sports void as far as I can tell.
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Re: Bold Prediction - Triathlon to Rebound in 2018? [HuffNPuff] [ In reply to ]
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HuffNPuff wrote:
FYI - the millennials aren't really filling any sports void as far as I can tell.

What about young women in half marathon and shorter running events? Don't women outnumber men now in all U.S. race distances below the marathon?
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Re: Bold Prediction - Triathlon to Rebound in 2018? [Mark Lemmon] [ In reply to ]
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Mark Lemmon wrote:
HuffNPuff wrote:

FYI - the millennials aren't really filling any sports void as far as I can tell.


What about young women in half marathon and shorter running events? Don't women outnumber men now in all U.S. race distances below the marathon?


But is that a win if more women enter but even more men leave resulting in a net decline to running? From the article below (and youtube version) you can see that running shared roughly the same boom years and experienced the same bust as triathlon. And pricing pressure is cited as a reason for the decline in running as well. Interesting to note that an increase in run, bike, and multi-sport events is expected to increase over the next 5 years...same as Dan is predicting.

https://mobile.nytimes.com/...arathon-running.html
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IIT3i9YtEXU




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Re: Bold Prediction - Triathlon to Rebound in 2018? [HuffNPuff] [ In reply to ]
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I see your point. Sad that some of the increased no.of fit young women runners have to settle for pudgy video and fantasy sports obsessed boyfriends. ;)
Last edited by: Mark Lemmon: Jan 26, 18 9:28
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