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Re: Will the crashing economy affect your participation in Triathlon? [psycholist] [ In reply to ]
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But in Learn's defense, recessions are rarely declared without two consecutive quarters of contraction which hadn't yet happened at that time.

I was wondering when you'd resurrect this thread so you could say, "I told you so." Couldn't resist, could you. (I wouldn't have been able to, either.)


lol you are right. Oh and by the way trichick19 you make a LOT of assumptions with your posts :)
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Re: Will the crashing economy affect your participation in Triathlon? [RBR] [ In reply to ]
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Firstly I will say grow some veges, greens and potatoes.

It won't do any harm if we are all a bit more energy efficient.


We are going to be hearing sob stories for a few years to come, believe me.

The money oreinted people work for banks, accounting etc, and they are doing it tough. They give the financial commentary and there is going to be more sob stories. These people produce absolutely nothing(not to say some are not needed, but computer models could do a better job), they just take money in, take their cut then redistribute it. However, if they are sensible they will loan it where growth/useful potential exists(and indirectly produce something).


Over the past 6 'super boom' years around the world some people have cashed up incredible amounts. No matter how bad things get there are many people around that are sitting on alot more than you can imagine.

Think about it, all those houses that were sold in the higher times meant the seller/builder/developer was cashing up.

A problem exists if all the business's were highly leveraged as well. Many of the older more established business's should not be so highly leveraged. The sensible and best beusiness will survive the downturn.

I think most people in the world look up to an aspire to the USA, but going into debt at high speed is confusing.
bailing every poorly performing business and bank out doesn't appear very sustainable. Anyone with any brains realises that any Governmant bailout means 'Joe public' will be paying for it in the long run.

All to continue paying some poor performing bank manager millions. Heads have to roll. They made there losses when they signed the paper making the loans................


Triathletes aren't such a money orientated bunch from my observation. It is a passion and even if sponsorship slows people will be out there doing events. N.Z is a small country and there was a longish bike ride around a lake which atracted 10,000 participants last weekend.

I just have seen and continue to see the real people that work and produce stuuf so excuse me if I am ignorant of why 'the West' have so many accountants, bankers and lawyers.........

Heaps of finance companies in N.Z have taken a few billion combined out of peoples pockets over here inthe past year or so, and it is gone for good. At the same time i see some old boy fronting his very long established finance company yesterday and making a good profit..... go figure..............


G.

http://www.TriathlonShots.com
Full event coverage of triathlon/ironman in photos.


Last edited by: triathlonshots: Dec 1, 08 21:29
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Re: Will the crashing economy affect your participation in Triathlon? [Ashburn] [ In reply to ]
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I expect that there are several more shoes to drop in the global deleveraging cycle that started in emerging markets in 1997-98 and is rolling through one sector after another (tech, super-caps, housing, financials,...).
I'm an idiot. could you please explain the 'global deleveraging cycle'?


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Re: Will the crashing economy affect your participation in Triathlon? [Fleck] [ In reply to ]
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How state-of-the-art do you need?

I don't think I need a bike on which a juiced up professional won some major race.

Simple as that.

For me personally, although I am not significantly affected by the tanking markets I will play it safe nevertheless:

No equipment upgrades for next season and only replacement of wear and tear.

Maybe I hit the market for new stuff later next year when retailers get desperate.

Not screaming enough, yet!

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Re: Will the crashing economy affect your participation in Triathlon? [RChung] [ In reply to ]
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So you can have a growing economy - I suspect even the last quarter that was negative will be revized closer to or above zero - and some queers on a committee yell 'recession' and that's that?

There is a very unfortunate and counter-productive problem in democracies where the people are mostly uneducated (well, that would be all of them) to OVER-REACT to every goddamned problem, often in a way that makes the current circumstances worse, like trying to manage a recession in the 1930s turned it into the Great Depression. Or by trying to solve the current crisis by subsidizing bad behavior with unsecured debt.
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Re: Will the crashing economy affect your participation in Triathlon? [psycholist] [ In reply to ]
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It's just RChung's way of flirting.


He has no game.
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Re: Will the crashing economy affect your participation in Triathlon? [Learn] [ In reply to ]
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There is a very unfortunate and counter-productive problem in democracies where the people are mostly uneducated (well, that would be all of them) to OVER-REACT to every goddamned problem, often in a way that makes the current circumstances worse

How to combat a banking crisis: First, round up the pessimists

"RIGA, Latvia -- Hammered by economic woe, this former Soviet republic recently took a novel step to contain the crisis. Its counterespionage agency busted an economist for being too downbeat. "All I did was say what everyone knows," says Dmitrijs Smirnovs, a 32-year-old university lecturer detained by Latvia's Security Police."
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Re: Will the crashing economy affect your participation in Triathlon? [de-tri-mental] [ In reply to ]
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I don't think I need a bike on which a juiced up professional won some major race

Hmm, so which IM winner do you have in mind or is your comment restricted to bike racing?[/quote]


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Re: Will the crashing economy affect your participation in Triathlon? [RChung] [ In reply to ]
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Not a bad idea. Because I'm pretty sure if the media hadn't been beating it's drums about an economic crisis so loudly over the last year - since they have to fill the airtime with something - the $700 billion No STrings Attacked bill never would have passed.

Like a company solving it's morale problem by firing all the unhappy people.
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Re: Will the crashing economy affect your participation in Triathlon? [Smilin' Bob] [ In reply to ]
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In Reply To:


I expect that there are several more shoes to drop in the global deleveraging cycle that started in emerging markets in 1997-98 and is rolling through one sector after another (tech, super-caps, housing, financials,...).
I'm an idiot. could you please explain the 'global deleveraging cycle'?

I posted that on Sept. 22. Isn't it obvious by now what's going on...?

Balance sheets are being shrunk. Standards of living are being set back a decade or so, and then all will be normal again.
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Re: Will the crashing economy affect your participation in Triathlon? [Learn] [ In reply to ]
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Not a bad idea. Because I'm pretty sure if the media hadn't been beating it's drums about an economic crisis so loudly over the last year - since they have to fill the airtime with something - the $700 billion No STrings Attacked bill never would have passed.

Like a company solving it's morale problem by firing all the unhappy people.

;-)

Blame the media!
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Re: Will the crashing economy affect your participation in Triathlon? [triathlonshots] [ In reply to ]
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...but computer models could do a better job...

That would be funny, if it weren't so sad. They did use computer models -- that's the root of the problem.

Modern financial theory is the second-greatest belief-based hoax ever perpetrated on humanity.
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Re: Will the crashing economy affect your participation in Triathlon? [Ashburn] [ In reply to ]
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What is the theory?
Which one?

In Reply To:
Modern financial theory is the second-greatest belief-based hoax ever perpetrated on humanity.



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Re: Will the crashing economy affect your participation in Triathlon? [jackmott] [ In reply to ]
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What is the theory?
Which one?

The whole MPT/CAPM construct.

Some of those fake Nobel Prizes need to be returned.
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Re: Will the crashing economy affect your participation in Triathlon? [Ashburn] [ In reply to ]
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Here's some media for you. Nearly every time these yahoos predicted a recession in the past, it was nearly over.

BFD.
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Re: Will the crashing economy affect your participation in Triathlon? [Learn] [ In reply to ]
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Here's some media for you. Nearly every time these yahoos predicted a recession in the past, it was nearly over.

BFD.

You should realize that I don't care a hoot about what a panel of economists think. Their proclamations have no real-world effect. They are part of the media. I personally pay no attention to anyone's definition or declaration about the existence or non-existence of recessions.

All I care about are right-now valuations and future conditions. The former I can know with some modest certainty; the latter...well, that's a judgment call and we do the best we can.
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Re: Will the crashing economy affect your participation in Triathlon? [aerobike] [ In reply to ]
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Back to the original question.

When did Timberman sell out last year?

When will it sell out this year? Last I heard, still 250/2000 spots open for what many regard as a great race, albeit a little pricey and out of the way for many.

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Last edited by: BigBoy: Dec 2, 08 18:19
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Re: Will the crashing economy affect your participation in Triathlon? [BigBoy] [ In reply to ]
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Back to the original question.

When did Timberman sell out last year?

When will it sell out this year? Last I heard, still 250/2000 spots still open for what many regard as a great race, albeit a little pricey and out of the way for many.


I think that's the key. I signed up for a race last night that would normally have sold out in less than 15 minutes. Perhaps the economy is creating fewer triathletes?
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Re: Will the crashing economy affect your participation in Triathlon? [Learn] [ In reply to ]
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News hit the media today that the recession we are supposed to have not been in has been going on for a year. That may mean we are over the hump with it.

In any event I think there has been a contraction in event sign-ups for athletes due to two factors:

1. There are more athletes, certainly, but there are also more events to fill.

2. The economy and gas price exerted an affect on participation in the summer of '08. Perhaps people are adopting a "wait and see" attitude toward the '09 season.

Tom Demerly
The Tri Shop.com
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Re: Will the crashing economy affect your participation in Triathlon? [BigBoy] [ In reply to ]
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Back to the original question.

The Beach 2 Battleship iron-distance race had a tremendously successful inaugural year in '08. Based on the positive word-of-mouth, I really thought it will fill very quickly. Registration has been open for two days now (three if you were an '08 participant) and the participant list shows under 300.

I don't really know if that's good or bad, but I expected it to fill pretty quickly. I thought it would be farther along by now.
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Re: Will the crashing economy affect your participation in Triathlon? [Tom Demerly] [ In reply to ]
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Tom, in the past I never thought twice about what the total race cost was for an event. I have now really considered this in my planning for 09. I know I have already stopped doing any run races since I have looked at the wear and tear on my body, and the costs, both in money and time on the weekend, and said nope, will just train by myself, and hit the races again next year when they have come type of carrot to shoot for.

Dave

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Re: Will the crashing economy affect your participation in Triathlon? [Ashburn] [ In reply to ]
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I understand the bankers use computer models alot for all their trading.

But I was thinking more simply of some computer software program;whereby the client puts in a figure of their free cash, their income and out comes the risk of this loan. The variation excepted is then agreed to or not by the computer.

The problem is more complex though with people borrowing against a business or their other assets.

The problem is some of the methods banks/borrowers have used. But giving out a %100 loan to a person/couple that have never shown they can save is equally as bad.

G.

http://www.TriathlonShots.com
Full event coverage of triathlon/ironman in photos.


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Re: Will the crashing economy affect your participation in Triathlon? [Tom Demerly] [ In reply to ]
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News hit the media today that the recession we are supposed to have not been in has been going on for a year. That may mean we are over the hump with it.

Maybe, maybe not. In either event, it should be obvious what happened to the timing of that announcement.
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Re: Will the crashing economy affect your participation in Triathlon? [aerobike] [ In reply to ]
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I see it said that a recession is caused when people lose confidence and stop spending.

For people saying they are doing less races or less far away races what is the reason?

Do you now make less per month at your job or are you just cutting back in case you lose your job or get a pay cut?
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Re: Will the crashing economy affect your participation in Triathlon? [RChung] [ In reply to ]
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What effing good does it do to an announce the recession a year after it's been underway, anyway? What good does that do?

Looks like a good place in the government to CUT some WASTE.
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