There are M-Dot races happening around the world right now so yes,there will be M-Dot races in 2021.. There will also be lots of non M-Dot triathlons held in 2021...

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I can only assume you are from the US and things there very different to a lot of the world. Sunshine coast 70.3 is on tomorrow in Queensland Australian and IM Cairns in for weeks.

Tiime will prove me right or wrong, but my suspicion is that after November 4, you'll hear very little about Covid.

No, you won't.

Sad face :(

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Today I do what others won't, so tomorrow I can do what others can't.

If there aren’t any US Ironman races next year it will show a lack of ability for Ironman and race directors to adapt or adjust.

Care to elaborate

He recently ordered a tin foil helmet and is using it a lot more than normal.

In USA it will really depends on who wins the election and how flu season goes. Our current leadership has put us in a horrible spot so it will be tough to dig out of this. The early races might not make it (March to ‘May) but maybe after.

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The curious task of economics is to demonstrate to men how little they really know about what they imagine they can design.

By leadership -you mean our governors and mayors. Trump gave a ton of support to NYC and the governor and mayor screwed it up royally.

As an example - Trump sent 1 or 2 hospital boats to NYC and rather than using it, they sent the old sick people back to the retirement homes.

I'm not a triathlete, I just hang out on the forum for bike tech stuff. Thus, my comment is about mass start events in general. And it will take a while for any of that to be really safe. Even if we get a vaccine before the election, there's a lead time to manufacture and distribute it. And really, we should be distributing it to medical personnel and other high risk individuals worldwide before the rest of us get it. Then there's the possibility that even if available, not everyone will take the vaccine.

I'd guess big mass start events aren't going to be safe in 2021 either. Small events where you can physically distance enough should be OK - I feel OK doing this sort of thing right now, but the thing is they have to be small. I am personally preparing for 2021 to look like 2020. Solo events (take a GPX file, ride the course, post your Strava record on social media) and small ones.

Obviously I don't mind being proved wrong. If I am wrong, I don't want it to be at the expense of people around the world who should be getting the vaccine but we're giving it out here first because vaccine nationalism. With infectious diseases, we are all in this together, like it or not.

I deferred my entries to all my local Olympic tris (5 of them) and Demi Esprit (Half IM) to next year and they should go off by next year. If I can do an Mdot half IM in Muskoka or Tremblant I will. There are a few lake crossing swims that have a low volume of racers (100-300 range) that are 4-12km long that I expect to go off by next year.

Daily deaths in Canada are single digit, and daily new cases is rougly flat around 500 nation wide for a long time now. Roughly our curve looks identical to Sweden who also are constant and low on both. We did not have the European style lockdown so it took us forevery to bring new cases down and get them low and constant, but I would characterize our lockdown as fairly liberal. For now we are not seeing a major surge, but even if we do, the lethality is now being seen to be relatively low, so I suspect, even with a surge (even if cases go up 10x or 50x) hospitalization and deaths will barely go up 1.5x (this is based on nothing other than my personal crystal ball based on other nations seeing case surges but low lethality)....so by next year, there will be pressure on all fronts to get on with business and community life, so I have no doubt that my local races will happen which are 200-1000 range.

In the mean time, I have my weekly world championships "training race" with some friends, and a few weeks ago I went up to Mont Tremblant and did a solo Coronaman training "event" which ended up being 9.5km of swimming, 230km or riding with 3900m of vertical (equal to Mt. Fuji) and 43 km of running. This was split up over 10 workouts in a span of 55 hrs. So a marathon swim, biking longer than the longest TdF stage with vertical equal to Mt. Fuji and a marathon. Not quite Ultraman range, but good enough considering my health. I thought you may find that amusing. It was totally solo, self supported.

So if there is no racing next year, I'll just add more people to these training events.

335 feels a bit more in my range of what I feel I may be able to to cover, but I would have kept the 10km swim and dialed the run back to a full marathon, Then you have a marathon swim, a marathon run and two medium Tour de France stages worth of riding!

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I actually looked at the Superman Tri they had in Washington State few years ago and played around with those distances. That was a straight 5k/200/50k so I split it up and added the 100k on day one. It gives Ironman types a chance to swim a 5k which is in reach on normal Ironman swim training and then get a metric century done.Then they get to do a double metric century followed by a 50k which a lot of folks have never done. The 8hr daily limits are also very generous and it is cheaper because there are no crews required. I anticipate that the Aussie race next year will be a huge hit like Ultraman Oz has become.

OK let me think about it and see how the winter training goes. I could probably rope together a group of 10 people to do this at Mont Tremblant on a super hilly loop. I have a perfect 7km run loop with 150m vertical per loop, so 7x7km would turn into 1000m of vertical on the run too, but if we made it 6 loops, its a perfect marathon.

If I had my choice, I'd split it like this into three triathlons:

Day 1, swim oriented day: 6km swim, 50km bike, 7km run
Day 2, bike oriented day: 2km swim, 200km bike, 7 km run
Day 3, run oriented reverse tri : 28 km run, 50km hill climb bike (2000m vertical), 2km wet noodle swim

As a point of clarification of what is happening in Canada depends on the region. As of last Monday, the four Atlantic provinces, with a total population of 2.3 million, had 16 active Covid cases. Despite having one of the best Covid management outcomes in the world, there are not many sporting events happening in Nova Scotia.

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Andrew Inkpen

It may be because Atlantic Canada is choosing to be cautious for now, but can it hold out for 12 more months?

To some degree it does not matter what is happening for cases in Atlantic Canada today relative to Covid19 cases. The various degrees of lockdown and phased reopenings may be overly conservative for a variety of very good reasons WHO comes up with stuff based on projections, not neccessarily what data we already have. But by next year, we will have a pile of data, we will have a great economic, social, and health analysis and frankly the world won't be able to continue being excessively conservative forever and a variety of things will get rolling (first the business world).

So if Atlantic Canada has 20 or so daily cases off 2.5 million people (so in the same range as New Zealand), but next year, the entire place is going to need to get rolling. It can't keep itself sealed off from the rest of Canada forever. So business, cultural and sports events will start getting rolling by next year.

As I said, nationally our daily cases and daily deaths curve have the same shape as Sweden (for now). The question is if our new cases ramp up like France or Spain, or stay flat...but even the two countries I mentioned, the shapes of their "daily death" curves looks very similar to Canada today. So if cases go up and hospitalizations and deaths stay low for a long time (all big ifs), society moves how it wants to deal with this. T

Anyway, lets see what happens in 9 months. We're barely in the first quarter of a 4 quarter match and don't know what the score will be in the 4th quarter. And none of this even factors in treatments and if a vaccine can roll out. That's going to be another layer of making all aspects of society activities more possible.

Atlantic Canada does not have 20 DAILY cases. It has less than 20 total active cases. Most days there are zero cases. Atlantic Canada has a much better record than New Zealand. It may also be the only part of the world that closed its borders to the rest of the country.

But I agree, they have to open up at some point to people outside the province. University students have arrived but there is no int’l travel to Halifax yet.

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Andrew Inkpen

Putting aside if Atlantic Canada opens to the rest of the country or not (I have business and family reasons why I would prefer it to be open), at this point its stupid that that they cannot have events of all kinds (inclusive of amateur sports like triathlon). At this point its like use an atom bomb to swat a house fly and having all kinds of damage because you're worried about a fly (in Atlantic Canada, not neccessarily elsewhere).

China, Taiwan, Korea, Japan, Singapore...all moved on with life at a measured and cautious pace and Sweden with a seven day moving average of 1-3 deaths for the last 2 months is doing reasonably well that they can probably do more than many other countries quite safely. Even in France with cases are just as high now as when they had their peak of deaths in April and the Tour de France is going on, 7 day moving average for deaths has been in between 10-30 deaths off 80M people for the last 3 months and some Mdot races are on deck this fall (lets see if they happen).

So will we have racing by this time next year? I am not sure humanity sits around forever when and if the lethality of this thing gets under control even more than it is now, with our without treatment and vaccine a lot of things will change over by next year.

Unfortunately this appears to be the case - https://losangeles.cbslocal.com/...rer-election-reopen/

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Next races on the schedule: none at the moment

Lavender room stuff. Early November is a logical time for many districts because the first marking period (quarter) ends then.

It would be great if conditions allowed us to go back for the second marking period. Not looking great currently - our county is spiking to almost 100 new cases per day with MSU restarting...

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Aaron Bales
Lansing Triathlon Team

The fall quarter ends in December in the LAUSD schools. Nah. She's doing her partisan bit.

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Next races on the schedule: none at the moment

I'm trying to understand the logic here, both of your post and the one you are responding to. After all the well-documented problems and controversy related to opening schools now, they are going to open schools in mid-November and you expect there will be media silence (you will hear very little about it)? People on both sides felt strongly about this, so even if the status quo changes, I don't see one side giving up and becoming silent. I understand there was some misguided political point intended, but suggesting that somehow in two months (no matter what happens, even if we find a cure) people will suddenly stop talking about COVID19 and all media coverage will stop is ridiculous. We are going to be talking about for this years and this should be obvious, regardless of political affiliation, unless you are just really obtuse or stupid.

And to the point about races in 2021. Even if we get a miracle cure/vaccine for COVID19 by the end of the year, there will be less and smaller races in 2021 than in 2019 or prior years. Assuming we get a competent administration in place in January, we should be able to reasonably get on top things (get to levels Europe is seeing now) and by summer I would guess we could see racing at about 20-50% pre-covid (I am guessing at least 20-50% of races don't happen, and those that do will have less numbers than 2019 and prior, with larger reductions in numbers for larger races, very small races if they happen may see similar to previous numbers).

So I think there will be more racing than in 2020, but I am putting an upper bound of 50% of the aggregate capacity/attendee numbers we saw in 2019 and prior. This is a US based prediction, other countries and regions will be different, I can't comment.

I am not sure what will happen with Ironman. I hope they will have races in 2021 but I have my doubts of their financial viability.

I think 2021 we could see lots of small pop up independent, diy and club “events.”