MC,

Might be the best "support" post on this thread yet. Thanks!

Agreed, I know nothing about your training. I´m sorry if I gave you the impression af if was trying to keep you from picking up a challenge. As I said ealier, I´m all for trying and finding the personal limit

And there really is no basis for this whole discussion, either way.

In my opinion the chance of going 8:30 for anyone is really, really, really slim. Regardless of age, abilities, background etc. There are maybe 1 in 10000 maybe 1 in 100000 who can do so.

If you are one there really is no way of telling, you will have to try in order to find out.

I am just (and it has happend before) surprised why people (in this case you) always come up with so lofty ultimate goals. Why isn´t 9:30 motivation enough to go out and play?

Axel

Just a statistic:

According to triresults.com in 2007 there finishers under 8:30:

Ironman South Africa: None
Ironman Australia: 2
Ironman Arizona: 2
Ironman Lanzarote: None
Ironman Brasil: 3
Ironman France: None
Ironman Coeur d´Alene: None
Quelle Challenge Roth: 10
Ironman Austria: 4
Ironman Germany: 8
Ironman Lake Placid: None
Ironman UK: None
Ironman Louisville: None
Ironman Canada: None
Ironman Wisconsin: None
Ironman Korea: None
Ironman Hawaii: 7
Ironman Florida: 3
Ironman Western Australia: 10

Of the other races not noted I can only see Almere having a significant number of sub 8:30ers.

So there were 49 people under 8:30 in 2007 (with possibly some double-counts) out of roughly 50000 to 60000 Ironmen.

Axel

Axel, thanks for the past few posts...again, a goal without a plan is a dream. Going from 10:30 to 8:30 is a dream...you cannot plan for this...or if you did, and you were reporting to me at work, I'd rip your project plan to shreds cause it is filled with risks way beyond your control.

The way people on this thread are talking about 8:30 its like running a 13 second 100m which anyone can do. Axel has "lived the quest", he knows what he is talking about...the rest of you are generally talking pie in the sky...to put it into context, this is 4:15 half Ironmans back to back without slowing down...how many of you have broken 4:15...hands up...I thought so...not that many. I actually have....on a super fast course that is 10 minutes fast...I'm more of a mid 4:20's guy on a flat course....8:30 is just stupidly fast...very few of us can appreciate it.

Realistically, to get to a goal time on the clock, the steps in between should be fairly definable with a primany path and some backup plans...there is going to be a number of critical path elements along the way. Each element has to be definable, and achievable, or what you have in place is not a plan....its a dream and you'll never get there.

There is a reason why only 49 people worldwide got to sub 8:30...they were already sub 8:50 guys with a solid foundation and a plan to go from there...or they were consistently sub 3:50 in a half Ironman and had a plan to get there...you can't build the Empire state building with two sheets of plywood and no plan...you need the materials, the lot, the manpower, the financial capital, and you need a plan....at 10:30 you have not even "bought the lot" to build your skyscraper on.

Thunderlegs, what is your goal for St. Croix?...unless you are older than 40 (not likely given the 8:30 dream), then you can't be gunning for me, you'll be starting ahead of me...just don't let me catch you! Since St. Croix is only 4 months away, and you're the guy wanting to go 8:30, maybe a good starting point would be to put down a goal time for St. Croix :-)...how about sub 4:40 which would make you a 9:30ish Ironman guy on an easy course?

Dev

There are fundamental flaws in your logic. First you assume that everyone who can complete an IM is actually doing so, then you assume everyone doing IMs is doing them to the best of their god given ability. Those stats are completely useless.

It sounds like you are saying 60000 people are capable of doing IM and of all the people capable only 49 are capable of going 8:30. Nobody here is saying 8:30 is easy or even possible, but its a mistake to assume everyone who can is actually doing.

Unfortunately I won't actually be there... I'll be cheering from home! And I wouldn't put any goal times to anything for the next few months as I'm just starting to pick up again from surgery in the fall with not much activity...

Amazing. A person comes on and asks for opinions on that it takes to go 8:30.
He has gotten various opinions. Why do some seem to attack one set of opinions?
If he already knows the answer, why even ask?

Dave

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Lions don't lose sleep worrying about the sheep

What exactly is your point?

The statistic was to show that 8:30 isn´t a time that can easily achieved. I think it does that. Why do you think it doesn´t?

Again: I´m not trying to discurage anyone. But I´d like to keep things in perspective. Underestimating a challenge can backfire at you as it is the receipt for disappointment.

Axel

my point is you are not answering the question, so yes you are being discouraging. Why? He didn't ask for perspective or odds, he asked for opinions on what it takes. Let him determine if he has the motivation, desire, time and talent.

No, I´m not answering to the original question.

Yes, I´m replying to 6 pages of posts about how likely it is to go 8:30.

Where does your anger come from? Did I insult you?

Axel

Still thought my cut to the chase post was the best, get new parents. Guess being honest some
want to take as a negative. Nope, I just try to be relatistic and honest with my goals.

But, some do win the lottery more than once. I am just not going to waste my time chasing
this type of dream. Or attacking others when honest opinions where given to the question.


Dave

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Lions don't lose sleep worrying about the sheep

No man, I am not angry OR insulted. I just disagree with you. You are a realist, which is fine. The OP may be a bit of a dreamer, which is also fine.

All I am saying is nobody on this forum or in the sport really know what the odds are that someone can physically go 8:30 in an IM. The sport is made up of a lot of athletes who are good but not great single sport endurance athletes. Running, cycling and to some extent swimming popularity and dollars take away most of the 8:30 athletes.

"Running, cycling and to some extent swimming popularity and dollars take away most of the 8:30 athletes."

I don't believe this is an accurate statement. There is no proof that the best single sport athletes can take on three sports and do them in combination as well as those that are winning triathlon today do. Your closest bet is Lance Amstrong, and even then there is no proof that in his peak if he just stayed in triathlon he would be Peter, LVL or Normann. To date, any time single sport specialists try triathlon they are off the back...and I mean seriously off the back. Show me one single sport professional that has come to triathlon and broken 8:30 hours...Chann McCrae was 5th at UCI World's and never broke 9...your best man is non other than "6 hours per week guy" Steve Larsen...and even at his best was only 10th at Kona and "only 8:33 at IMLP" (although I'd put that in the sub 8:30 performance category). But a couple of seasons later, Larsen was toast...could not withstand the running volume...so it really is not that simple.

I'll give our pro triathletes credit for being the best in the world when combining swim-bike-run over 140.6. Its a pretty unique ability that Thorpedo, Tergat or Contador may not have the constituition to withstand without blowing up before getting to the start line...

Dev

Sorry if I come across as a dick, but has the OP actually finished an IM??? I'll give the guy the benefit of the doubt and say he is capable of doing 8:30 but I think realistically finishing an IM should be of immediate concern.

The only single sport athlete I am aware of currently (and I do not follow too much what is going in the world of triathlon) is Laurent Jalabert with a 9h19 finish @ Kona.
I believe he can "go sub 9H without too much difficult" since he swim time was 1h10+...
Gaining another 30 mins now that is another story though!

Fred.

He's never finished an Ironman (140.6), but he has finished the very difficult UniBallMan---Swim 2.4, Bike 112, Run 23, get your testicle removed.

OP--some may say you're a dreamer...but you're not the only one ;^)

dev,

we haven't even seen a young "phenom" in the sport yet. We haven't seen the potential of somebody being groomed to be the best IM athlete in the world from a very young age. Similar to the way Tiger was groomed to play golf or Jordan groomed himself to play basketball. To use Jaja or Larsen as proof when they were past their primes as professional athletes doesn't make sense.

My point is we don't know how many 8:30 guys are out there because they sacrificed some of their most important base years to focus on one sport.

Is your position everyone that can go 8:30 IS actually going 8:30?? I just can't believe you would make that assertion.

Your answers are MACCA AND NORMANN.

They have been competing since back in 1993 and were both top 10 at the ITU World's in Manchester in the junior division...for the record, Macca beat Normann then...I got this off the ITU website

Results for: Junior Men ( click column headings to sort records ) Position Last Name First Name Country Total Time SWIM T1 BIKE T2 RUN 1 Hufschmid Oliver SUI 2 Bolton Ryan USA 3 Manzan Alexandre BRA 4 McCormack Chris AUS 5 Stadler Normann GER 6 Allen Mark USA 7 Franzmann Joachim GER 8 Rogers Abe USA 9 Marceau Olivier SUI 10 Johns Andres AUS



Simon Whitfield has been racing triathlon since he was racing kids of Steel 100K from where I live in Ontario...that was back in 1992...I sold the kid his first disk wheel....a Cinelli disk wheel with 6 speed campy !!!

I did not say that eveyone who CAN go 8:30 is...I'm saying that I don't think there is a single sport specialist today that can transfer to triathlon and clean the clock of triathletes....the pro triathletes today, have been specializing in triathlon since their teenage years.

Dev

we haven't even seen a young "phenom" in the sport yet. . . .My point is we don't know how many 8:30 guys are out there because they sacrificed some of their most important base years to focus on one sport.

Huh? Simon Whitfield first got into triathlon as a teenager back in the 90's. Numerous other top triathletes now have grown up from their mid to late teen years in triathlon to the world-class ranks.

The one difference with triathlon is it is perhaps not that aboslute first choice of the young endurance athlete. They may go to it from another sport early on - typically either swimming or running. Top triathlon coaches who are serious about long term development right up to the national and international ranks are looking for teenage swimmers who can run and runners who can swim!

IM racing is a bit of a different beast, due to the fact it is such a long race and to develop, both the physical and mental ability to truely excell at that event, takes many, many years. But that being said, we are now seeing the very best in IM distance racers are former ITU standouts, such as Chris McCormack and Michellie Jones who have been doing triathlon at a very high level, since there teen years.

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Steve Fleck @stevefleck | Blog

"I'm saying that I don't think there is a single sport specialist today that can transfer to triathlon and clean the clock of triathletes.."

I think you're missing saltman's point. His is a hypothetical "what if" kind of like that old Nike commercial where great Nike athletes were world class in other sports, the argument being that these athletes would shine no matter what sport they chose (I think Lance was a boxer, Marion Jones was a gymnast, etc.) Saltman isn't arguing so much that great single sport athletes would transfer to triathlon and dominate, but that they were steered towards single sports for various reasons and never got the chance.

Jaja and Larsen, IMHO, help to prove his point. Larsen was an average cyclist at best, and placed top-10 in Kona and won IMLP. Jaja was world class and ho-hummed his way to a 9:15 while doggy-paddling in the swim.

It's a fun "what-if" to wonder what would've happened had Thorpe and Lance been dedicated to Tri instead of focusing on swimming and cycling, but we'll never know.

I see the point, but my point is that until a single sport guy can do it, there is no proof that the best "potential triathletes" are not already triathletes. Not to mention that this entire discussion diminishes the incredible performance of pro triathletes.

So basically what I am saying is that the best athletes in the world when it comes to optimizing triathlon performance are already doing triathlon. Dave Winfield could have been an excellent linebacker if he went to play for the Minnesota Vikings and John Elway may have been an excellent left fielder in Yankee stadium, but its all should coulda woulda.

Triathlon is not swimming, nor is it biking, nor is it running. Football (Quarterback) and Baseball have the common attribute of throwing and lots of hand eye cordination...it still does not make a football stud (Elway) a hall of fame left fielder...and just cause someone can do one triathlon component well, does not mean that they will adapt to triathlon.

Perhaps the best hope that people have for "crossover" is pro biking to Ironman or elite swimming to ITU (Sheila Tormina). You won't go from pro biking or elite running to ITU...that's for sure.

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Now THAT is impressive. I remember you Hawaii finish but had not caught up on you sice then. Sub 9. Respect.


!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[reply]So my first IM was on pace for about a 10:30-10:40 which thrilled me (I was aiming to break 11:30 when I started training).

Kind of knowing the answer already, I'm curious what others think it takes to get down to 8:30. That's a pretty intimidating, though not insurmountable, 2 hours.[/reply]

NO one here knows.

BUT I DO know one thing, if you never try you never will know and will join the 99.999999% of the members here who will live with that the rest of their lives.


.

Gee, I'm almost 40 years old and did a 9:40 in Kona this year and i would be thrilled just getting under 9:30, let alone breaking 9!

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Kai Hundertmarck went under 8:30 last year in Austria. Right know he is the best single-sport athlete who became a pro-triathlete.

I agree, that the times when triathletes could dream that results will explode when they "really" focus on triathlon are over. And the times have not significantly gotten better since 89... Dev is right: These comments take away from the efford our pros are putting in. They are not amateurs who will be swept away when the "real deals" will show up.


Axel