Also, how long do you think it will take to cover the distance? Looks like a little over 40 minutes is how long it takes the best of them after a 100+ mile ride to this section.

Here are my guesses with predicted time splits.

ARMSTRONG

BASSO 20 seconds

MANCEBO 35 seconds

ULLRICH 1:00

LEIPHEIMER 1:35

SASTRE 2:00

SIMONI 2:05

RASMUSSEN 2:15

MOREAU 2:20

HERAS 2:30

AZEVEDO 3:00 or worse (he is told to take it easy to save himself for stage 17)

KLÖDEN 03' 00 or worse he is told to ride slowly in a desperate attempt to get Jan on the podium in Paris.

I like your predicitions but they seem to be a little off, he's where you went wrong

Armstrong
Virounque+25
Basso+32
Mancebo+40
Kloden+42
Ullrich+44
Leipheimer+1'06
Sastre+1'12
Simoni+2'
Rasmussen+2'11
Moreau+2'40
Heras+3'03

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david
asc-arizona state cycling
tribemultisport.com

Lance will win. Basso +:30, Jan +1:00. Kloden about the same as Jan. Nobody else matters but the other top 10 GC guys will be scattered between :40 and 3:00 in back of Lance.

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________________________________________________

Anyone who tells you they're as fast now as they were when they were 18...
sure wasn't very fast when they were 18.

The commentators dairies on the OLN site are interesting today. Ligget thinks Lance will catch Basso (I have to doubt that prediction unless Basso is fried from today), and Carmichel goes into to pretty good detail about what he expects, and how Armstrong will prepare throughout the day prior to his 5:00pm start, and how he'll warm up in the heat. Interesting read.

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Jim Manton / ERO Sports

here is where you went wrong:

Lance

...

...

Ulrich + 1.45min

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�The greater danger for most of us is not that our aim is too high and we miss it, but that it is too low and we reach it.� -Michelangelo

MoodBoost Drink : Mood Support + Energy.

Heras dropped off early today. This either means that he is in really lousy form or that he was resting for today.

I think that Basso will be close to Lance, but Lance has no chance of catching him unless the riders are starting one minute apart instead of the usual three minutes apart.

The article by Carmichael about preparing for the TT is really interesting.

I have heard that Pantani (SP?) the pirate has the record in right about 37 minutes. Sheryl Crow, however was reported to have done it in 90 minutes. On what sort of bike I am not sure.

5pm start for Lance? What time does that translate to as far as EST? Might have a small emergency pop up if you know what I mean ; )

I think that 5 PM in France it translates to 11 AM in Daylight Savings Time in the Easternmost time zone of the US. At least most stages end between 10:50 and 11:30, and the start times are set to give the same approximate ending time each day.

Lance is celebrated for his high spinning cadence, which allows him to accelerate faster while riders like Ullrich crank along in a higher gear with a lower cadence. If we accept that Lance can accelerate faster on mountains, can we also say that the higher cadence thus gives him an additional advantage specifically on a climb like Ad'H, where the rider is turning and accellerating so often on the switchbacks?