He's going to have to do it like Big Mig, stay within sight in the climbs, and crush 'em in the time trials

I am going to boldly predict that Martin will come 8th in this year's Tour de France while winning the time trial stages handily. You heard it here first.

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AND......have a great team to help cover attacks, force attacks, and keep him in the game.

The problem with the WC TT is that many of the top GC guys rarely focus on it, nor can carry the fitness or motivation that late into the year. In the TDF, he won't put much time on BW, AC, CE, LL, et al in the TTs and will certainly lose time on all three of the mountain top finishes. I would say he may hit the top five overall, but the top of the podium seems a bridge too far at this point.

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He's going to have to do it like Big Mig, stay within sight in the climbs, and crush 'em in the time trials

I don't think they are implying that Martin will win the Tour de France, just that he'll wear the yellow jersey at some point - which is realistic for a top Time Trialer as he is. Either right off the top after the Prolouge, or if he's placed well enough in the GC going into one of the other ITT's he could get the Yellow Jersey there.

As for the Olympic Games - that's a big roll of the dice. Even the provisional favorite and the home-town hero for the O-Games Road Race, Mark Cavendish has said that, he thinks he has a good shot on the day for Olympic Gold, a number of key things have to go his way.

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Steve Fleck @stevefleck | Blog

I like Tony Martin but he doesn't have a snowball's chance in a CAT scanner to win the TDF.

jaretj

From the article I think you are right, just "better" GC not overall. Two thoughts:
1. I think he is going to regret not gunning for a gold medal in his prime, a TDF jersey wearer/good GC doesn't even come close
2. I still don't totally understand how these climbers also do so well in the TT. Pure power to weight? TT guys are worn down by the mtns?

I don't even think he will make the podium

1. I think he is going to regret not gunning for a gold medal in his prime, a TDF jersey wearer/good GC doesn't even come close



Something I've wondered about cycling. In terms of cycling prestigue, is an cycling olympic medal that better than a TdF win? Obvously in Track or swimming, the winner of the 400 meters goes a long way more than a winner of a world championships. But is cycling different? I ask because I couldnt tell the winners of the gold medal races, but I could tell you the winner of the Tour over the past umpteem decades. Did Eddie Merckx ever win a gold (not sure if cycling was even an event back in the day)?

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I don't think it's that the TT guys are worn down by the mtns per se. Rather, they generally have other responsibilities. Cancellara and Martin have to take some long pulls to protect their teammates on a variety of stages. They don't have the luxury of looking out only for their own interests to stay as fresh as possible for a late-race ITT.

I don't think I've ever seen him make a selection on a climb, I know he's never done that role but anyway. He could do a Wiggins.

Until recently the Olympics was for amateur cyclists, not pros. It doesn't have the history and prestige of more entrenched events. The word champ gets to wear the rainbow jersey for a year, which nets a lot of publicity....the oly champ, nada (though Paulo Bettini did try to milk his olympic victory by wearing gold shoes and a gold helmet for the next four years).

Right now a worlds win is at least as prestigious, and a TdF win much more so. Lots of pro sports are like this, everyone in the NBA would rather have a championship ring than a gold medal.

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he was 2nd on the Mt. Ventoux stage in 2009. Attacked out of the group with Juan M Garates, iirc

He also had ~3 minutes at the bottom of that climb on Contador et al. iirc

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>>I don't think I've ever seen him make a selection on a climb, I know he's never done that role but anyway

Does winning Paris-Nice count? Or second to Cadel at Romandie?

Does He have a chance...........................I think if he had a team for it, he would not be given the consideration He deserves. With a team, and a program designed for it, yes.

No chance he's the team favorite for GC now that they have Levi. He'll be working for Levi come the mountain stages and on his own in the flat lands and TTs. He said he's hoping for a good GC showing which in this years race could mean a top 10 finish if he can suffer enough in the mountains after going Levi a good pull to stay with the other top GCers.

He has no chance at all. Trying to make all the selections to stay in gc is significantly more demanding then the way he has previously ridden the tour. He will need at least a few tours to develop as a leader, if he can. Just my thought, remember when big george was to be a leader.

Which as you have poined out,,He does not have the team for it.....He is working for someone else.
I still believe If He had the team, (was captain) and the team program planned for it, He would have a better shot than most people think

absolutely agree with you. great rider one of my favorites but until he has a team that will let him be the top guy we won't get to see what he really can do. Hopefully they give him the proper support in the classics.

This is a common misconception re: Indurain....that he "held on" in the mountains but dominated the TT's. Yes he crushed all in the TT's, but he also crushed people in the moountains. Problem was, he just didn't win stages. Look back at 91 when he escaped with Chiappucci to take the yellow, or 94 when he came second to Luc LeBlanc on the first mountain stage, etc.

He almost always had a dominant ride in the early mountain stage to consolidate his lead. He then rode more conservatively in the later mountains, not because the climbs were beyond him, but because he didn't have to ride harder.

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Yes I remember when George H ws supposed to be a leader. Also remember some thought He had a chance to podium......Tony is much more talented than George, Both in the TT and in the mnts...
I guess people are not reading what I posted twice..................He would have to have a team and a planned program, specificly for the tour,,and yes ....then...He would have a chance

I think 2012 no shot, but like I said perhaps with the right team and program........ but I still see it as a long shot.

No chance.
His only hope would have been to gain time in a breakaway & hold on, and even before this announcement, I doubt that any teams would let someone like him get too much time.