All of the Marathon Majors will be roughly the same situation. With your time you should get yourself in the first wave but expect congestion. In general there are 2500 to 3000 men and roughly 10% of that in women who will run under 3 hours. In Berlin there were 12,000 men and 7,000 women who ran between 3 and 4. It’s natural that many of those running between 3 and 4 start out faster than they should. There is your congestion. Another point that may or may not affect your start is the sub elite crowd. In all of the other majors the sub elites have their own start corral with the elites. In Tokyo everyone simply starts together.

The great thing about the majors is you will have company during your race. You will always have runners to run with. If there is wind there will be groups to tuck into.

See you on the roads of Tokyo.

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Dave Jewell
Free Run Speed

great info, thanks

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My marathon PR is "under three, high twos. I had a two hour and fifty-something."