I have no data to show, but I'm quite confident that in the past 10 years major changes in tt bikes have involved only food/fluid storage and disc brakes. If you already have stealthy cockpit, skinsuit, shoecovers, helmet, wheels etc., then you're good to go

The cervelo p5 then p5x, p3x are your 3 fastest bikes, maybe the new Speec concept in this group. Good luck finding the p3x or p5x, but if you do, I would snag it if you're considering a new to you bike.

Then you're going to have a group of bikes that are going to be close, 4-8w slower. Argon 119, canyon, felt, maybe qr etc.

With older bikes the bike is a higher % of the total drag package. Maybe bike 20% rider 80%. Now it's more like 85-90% rider and 10-15% bike making how you position yourself on the bike and which tires/wheels you choose, clothing you use, how you carry your nutrition etc more important.

Any questions lmk. Hope that helps

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Brian Stover USAT LII
Accelerate3 Coaching
Insta

Super helpful! Thanks for your reply and knowledge. I've always enjoyed and sought out your expertise on this board for many years!

See my related post here. At the average AG level, a 2002 Cervelo P2K and a new P3X are about the same speed. Your training, body weight, etc. count for far more than a newer bike.

Thanks!

I'm almost down to my former racing weight and my training is coming along as good as I could have hoped. Position is still the same.

I swapped my old castelli skin suit for the no pinz and bought the giro Aerohead to replace my old advantage 2 helmet. Not sure if any of those changes will make any difference.

If I can save 30 seconds on a new bike, I'd strongly consider it. Last time out I did a 53 flat and being 9 years older I'd be more than happy if I could break 53:30 and pretty happy if I broke 54.

But even if I got a new bike, I probably wouldn't use it until next year since I'm so comfortable with this one and the race is only a little over 2 months away.

One thing for sure, if you have a finite budget, it's all the stuff 'around' the bike that will make the difference. So don't pick the fastest frame, pick the frame that will allow you to get fastest. And that is often the one that allows you to invest where it really counts : clothes, helmets, fit, aero testing, tires...

Have you tested the new Speed Concept or seen outside data not from Trek?

You probably want disc brake version, but I did see P5 Rim to Speed concept RIM. P5 was better at 0 yaw, SC better at 10deg. Argon was right between the two.

No. If trek wants to send me one I'd test it.

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Brian Stover USAT LII
Accelerate3 Coaching
Insta

Very well said. I like your phrasing of this a lot.

Agree with improving everything around the bike. I didn't pick up any noticeable gains going from a 2014 speed concept to a cervelo p series with tririg alpha one. I've seen massive gains over the years at church creek by updating position, tires, tubes, skinsuit and helmet. I've dropped 3:20, since 2017, without an increase in road bike power. I picked up a lot of tips over the years just from searching this forum and asking for equipment advice.

One "free" improvement is getting adapted to the heat. The start is late enough for the heat to play a big role, especially if you are doing training rides early in the morning.

 
i have been wondering much the same thing. i ride an old slice rs, set up pretty well i think, for TT's and tris.

i often wonder, if i dropped 10k on a new tt bike, what difference over a 20k tt would there really be?

i've been looking at the new tt bikes and esp at low yaw (which i assume i care about more since i'm usually over 40km/h) it doesn't seem like there's any guarantee the investment actually makes me faster. i recognize it can be very hard to compare, eg, maybe i dgaf about disc, but maybe that lets me run faster tires, etc etc.

i wish there was a way to go somewhere and do objective tests across brands before buying.

if I recall correctly it goes like

position is like the most important thing then u have

- skinsuit-trisuit/helmet
- wheels/frame
- "minor" stuff with debatable benefit

Some of those old trek bikes with no exposed cables passed the aero eye test EASILY :)

Now if u are looking at TT at high level (not your typical club tt) then I am sure those 20k bike could potentially give the few seconds here and there that you may need win it.

IMHO/Based on what smarter folks than me have wrote over the years in this and other sites.

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The entire event (IM) is like "death by 1000 cuts" and the best race is minimizing all those cuts and losing less blood than the other guy. - Dev

it's actually quite simple. Test yourself and look at your CDA and consider your height and weight.
If you are say 5'10, 175lbs and you are getting a .25 CDA, don't worry about the bike, that's not where the problem is
If you are down at a .21, maybe start looking at the bike.
We can argue if that threshold is .21 or .20....but if you are .25, look elsewhere, it's not the bike.