50.68km

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Chicago Cubs - 2016 WORLD SERIES Champions!!!!

"If ever the time should come, when vain and aspiring men shall possess the highest seats in government, our country will stand in need of its experienced patriots to prevent its ruin." - Samuel Adams

twice as far as me

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TriDork

"Happiness is a myth. All you can hope for is to get laid once in a while, drunk once in a while and to eat chocolate every day"

435W at the crank at sea level.
.215 CdA
.003 Crr
1400ft elevation

Gets me to 52.77 km. I think it will be embarrassing if he only does 50.68 km.

52.17

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Suffer Well.

Any data on what his current FTP is or what he'll be targeting for watts?

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Blog: http://262toboylstonstreet.blogspot.com/
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I'm excited either way, it will be amazing if you're right. Watching him finish on such a high! I can't wait...3 days and counting

I'm not good on the conversion to MPH but is that like 32+MPH for an hour? Amazing!

32.8 mph.

I just pulled 435W out of the air, based on numbers I've seen for other pros. Nothing too scientific like scouring for data on him specifically. Same with CdA.

He is big for a pro cyclist, yet climbs well, and also usually puts in good TT times even when he is in domestique mode (which is almost always).

He isn't the best TTer on the planet. I suspect that Martin, Wiggins, Cancellara, etc will beat the 52.77 mark I estimated for Jens by at least 2km and maybe 4.

Does anyone have any info on if the record attempt will be streamed for US viewers? Would love to watch...

1% improvement = 50.2km

10% improvement = 54.7km

Everyone's making a big deal about his age at 42, so I'll say he bests the CR by 4-point-2 percent = 51.8km

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"What's your claim?" - Ben Gravy
"Your best work is the work you're excited about" - Rick Rubin

I've read Eurosport will have live coverage at 6:30pm in Switzerland on Thurs. Attempt starts at 7. Haven't read anything else. Might be too late in the day for any place in the US to cover it live.

He will bury himself! .... 53

"shut up legs"

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I think Jens and his crew are maximizing the probability that he beats 49.7, rather than maximizing his expected distance (these are two different objectives). Regardless of which strategy they use, they know that they can expect his record to be short-lived once Martin or whoever takes a crack at it in the next few months. So I think they will go conservatively to ensure that they beat the record. Maybe at the 50 or 55 minute mark, if the record looks likely, Jens will get the green light to gun it.

The Cycling News article notes that Jens is likely to use 54-14 gearing which maybe backs up my reasoning. Presumably his team has done all of the calculations using Jens' FTP, CdA, CRR, altitude, etc. to get at that gearing. 49.7 km/hour at that ratio implies a cadence of between 100 (48.3 km/h) and 105 (50.7 km/h). I have absolutely no idea what Jens' preferred cadence is, but this seems like a fair range for targeting 50. Of course if he can do 110 cadence then that gets 53.1, so everyone guessing around there is probably making a good guess as well.

As for my prediction, I dunno, I guess I'll go with 50.7, even though I think he is capable of more.

(Edited to put the correct gear ratio from the Cycling News article)

agg wrote:

The Cycling News article notes that Jens is likely to use 54-18 gearing which maybe backs up my reasoning.

Small Nit - I think that they are going with 54-14. I've read that twice, once in the Cycling News Article and on Velonews

http://www.cyclingnews.com/...our-record-trek-bike

I vote for 51.94

Thanks for the correction and the link. I double-checked my math and I had in fact done it for the 54-14, I just wrongly put 54-18 in my post.

I did the calcs in the other thread here:

http://forum.slowtwitch.com/cgi-bin/gforum.cgi?post=5234924#5234924


I came up with 51.37, I'm sticking with between 51-52.

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Heath Dotson
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I think Jens and his crew are maximizing the probability that he beats 49.7, rather than maximizing his expected distance (these are two different objectives).

I hope that isn't the case, and doubt it is. 49.7 is just such a low bar. Barely beating that would be embarrassing. Many amateurs could do that... guys you've never heard of... guys older than Jens, too.

Plus, I see no reason to play it excessively safe. If their intimate knowledge of Jens' physiology says he can maintain 440W for the hour... then dial it back a little... maybe 430 at the start and reevaluate as it progresses. Pour it on at the end.

That would still be safe, and have very little effect on the distance. And I don't believe that Jens would be on board with anything less than a 100% effort.


The Cycling News article notes that Jens is likely to use 54-14 gearing which maybe backs up my reasoning. Presumably his team has done all of the calculations using Jens' FTP, CdA, CRR, altitude, etc. to get at that gearing. 49.7 km/hour at that ratio implies a cadence of between 100 (48.3 km/h) and 105 (50.7 km/h). I have absolutely no idea what Jens' preferred cadence is, but this seems like a fair range for targeting 50. Of course if he can do 110 cadence then that gets 53.1.

That's a good point. On this page they give gearing and cadence for hour records: http://bikecult.com/bikecultbook/sports_recordsHour.html Cadence is normally in the 100-105 range. If Jens really uses a 54-14, I don't think he will go that fast.



It's good to remember that the guy who holds that 49.7 record was a nobody compared to Jens and he set the mark Merckx style.

I'm not sure how much faith I'd put in the cycling media to get such facts correct. Over on VeloNews, for example, it is reported that Rominger's record isn't being recognized because he used two different-sized wheels (i.e., they've confused Rominger with Moser).

Not to mention that Cyclingnews has at least an error per article.

As for my prediction.. I have no idea but I'm certain he'll break it.

I sure would like to see it, but it won't be on our local cable provider. Anyway, I'm going to say 52K and change.

Here is his custom Trek SC that he will be riding.


http://velonews.competitor.com/...r-record-bike_346043


top tube decal "Jens Voight can beat the 1 hour record in under 60 minutes"
Down tube decal "Jens Voight doesn't normally ride in velodromes, because he doesn't like to lap himself"

51.53 Based on nothing but pure conjecture, and the fact that he's pretty badass.

Will there be wagering?

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Gary Mc
Did I mention I did Kona