See I'm picking Currie because of timing being similar to StG 2022 and the fact that he crushed Cairns. While that's closer to home than Texas, I'm just thinking Currie excels in the first half of the year. Well see!

ProTriNews offer their analysis and predictions:
https://podcasts.apple.com/...ri-news/id1559781865
Support for Currie!
Mentions for Marquardt Koolhaas Lange Skipper
Surprise in WPro Matthews ;) (calf tear 8 weeks ago) plus Langridge, Lewis, Stage_Nielsen
Full tv coverage this coming Saturday.
https://www.trirating.com/...4-apr-27th-seedings/

Looking forward to your preview!
Lewis has a 9 point lead on Langridge in the IM Series from Oceanside: one of them will lead the standings come pm Saturday.
Currie has 244 over Leiferman and 256 over Skipper (that was a good 70.3 (for him) 16 days ago). Lange well further back.
Forecast is for heat, wind and 76% humidity: not great.
There was some ProTriNews chat that an athlete could win the IM Series with 3 70.3s, an IM and Kona/Nice. Think this may've be motivated by throwing Sanders a bone as opposed to based on arithmetic. Such a substitution will cost 41 minutes of differential loss. I think it's quite likely the eventual winners will not depend on a Taupo score.
Worked example:
Sanders: 2500+2500+5000 (IMLP)+5400(Kona, 10 minutes down on winner)+2820(3 minutes down in Taupo) = 18,220
(if wins Kona and Taupo, max score 19,000
Lange: 2000+5000+2000+5000+5820 (3 minutes down in Kona)= 19,820

IRONMAN Texas Preview is LIVE!

Can Kat Matthews overcome a calf tear to win? McCauley, Wilms, Stage-Nielson, Langridge, & several women from Oceania look to challenge her.

Can Patrick Lange rebound, coming off of a 16th place finish at 70.3 Oceanside? Your podium picks are as good as mine after that, with a ton of depth in the men's race. Lots of people doubling back from Oceanside & plenty of new faces make their Pro Series debuts.

Well written!

Thanks for the extensive race preview, especially for giving women prominent coverage. If I could suggest an improvement, it would be helpful if you added captions to the photos rather than making readers try to guess who’s in the photos or where they were taken. Being able to connect names to faces will help build the fan side of our sport.

---

Sharon McN
@IronCharo
#TeamZoot
Clif Bar Pace Team 2003-2018

Pereda will be up there too. Ex-college swimmer, and he sent me a message that he wants to push that swim, so I expect him to be in the mix at least during the swim.

Lots of good stuff there, and especially on some new names that most of us are not familiar with..

Could have done without the Michael Weiss comment though, kind of poor taste and like a couple decades old now too....Is this going to be your take on every athlete you mention going forward, or is he special is some way to you??

i find it normal to mention that he is/was a convicted doper. Most people do no really enjoy seeing him (back) in the sport.
Poor taste would be asking it NOT to be mentionned.... and please it's not about him, i don't see other ex-EPO user in this field.

Koolhaas was in the front pack at T100 Miami. Swam up front at Challenge Almere too. Ceccarelli was a DNF @ Oceanside but came out of the water in the lead group. Some of the biggest names like Wilkowiecki, Currie, and Marquardt. Horsfall-Turner led out the swim last year & didn't drop Wilkowiecki & Marquardt. There are some good bikers in this field. Would think that those guys want to try to string it out on the swim. Simon Shi also has front pack swim potential but I'd rather see him swim comfortably in the chase pack, conserve some energy, & set himself up for a good day.

Think Brandon will end up dropping everyone in the women's race. Might have company for a little bit. We'll see.

Real feel will be 90 degrees w./ a dew point close to 70 by the time folks get onto the run. Thinking 2:50 & 3:00 could get the job done for someone out in front. Will be interesting to see if any men can go sub-2:45 & run to the front.

Not to mention that this strategy is extremely risky. Even if you can math it out, the race dynamic and incentives are to go for broke at the WCs. Someone like Sanders can probably turn out podiums/wins at regular IMs with very little risk just by staying close to target power and not letting himself get too ahead of himself.

If he's depending on the WCs for even a decent result, especially if the decision is "5% Kona win, 95% walking the marathon" vs "95% secure a top 10" you know he's going for broke.

Yeah I guess it's personal preference here. I thought it was relevant when researching for the preview and saw who beat Pohl at IM Maryland last year. There have been plenty of apologist articles written on Weiss. I don't have any tolerance for doping & think it's relevant to include background information like that so as not to normalize it by never brining it up. I think our sports lends itself to normalizing things that make you a better athlete. Easy to make the jump as an AGer to trying out some banned products (maybe not even knowing something is banned) thinking there's no harm because you're not a pro but then ending up with a 70.3/140.6 Worlds slot. I didn't write a paragraph on how I think the science is sound on the long term benefits you get from doping even if you dope for a short period of time. I mentioned Laidlow being under investigation earlier in the year so, no, he's not special to me. If anything, I would say that's showing some consistency on the topic. If you're associated with doping, it's fair game that it gets mentioned if articles that preview or recap races. I'm not giving my opinion on these things like I am here but I do believe readers should know about these things and decide what importance to assign it. Open to feedback if ST doesn't want this stuff mentioned but at the end of the day it's still an opinion piece & I'm not spending too much time focusing on stuff like that versus highlighting all of the great (clean) athletes on these start lists. Can't make everyone happy but it was one line & I think it's relevant for as long as Weiss wants to compete. Would guess that that line wouldn't be something that most people who read the article are thinking too much about.

I'm with @Monty here - and you throwing it in jarred (because of its irrelevance - see below).
Extract: "Jason Pohl . . . came in 2nd at IRONMAN Maryland to convicted doper Michael Weiss."
Point is: Weiss is NOT on the start list (@jcqiraSHT please note) - is he?
If he was then 'fair' to mention: but he isn't - or have I got that wrong?
So the fact that Pohl got beaten by him is across the borderline irrelevant (to Pohl's chances in IM Texas).
Why did Pohl DNF Oceanside? He DNFs a lot of races. Why? Does every DNF make the next one easier? Or is this a recurrent injury?
I don't have any tolerance for doping & think it's relevant to include background information like that IF the athlete referenced is racing.
I appreciate the review (as said ^^^): the number of athletes you mentioned was extensive and I liked the article's construct.

https://proseries.ironman.com/...n-championship-texas
Pro panel tomorrow at 1400 local: https://proseries.ironman.com/...live-texas-pro-panel
Very likely a top 10 in the men will get a IMWCQ. Top 8 for the women (estimate).

Great write-up! My picks:

1. Langridge
2. Matthews
3. Brandon

1. Wilkowiecki
2. Lange
3. Currie

---

"FTP is a bit 2015, don't you think?" - Gustav Iden

I like Wilkowiecki a lot.

You think Langridge can hold it together on the run in the heat? Hesitated to put her higher after she was run down in Oceanside.

Ajax Bay, you're right, he is not racing. My bad


Looking at Oceanside result, it seems that taking into account the 'handicap' can make the race more interesting from a viewer point: if my numbers are correct
Currie 's buffer to remain at the top of the IM Pro Series is as follows
Lange : 7'32''
Hanson: 5'57''
Skipper: 4'16''
Lieferman : 4'04

Skipper 's buffer to Hanson is 1' 41, and 3'16'' to Lange (and Angert). I find this TdF system quite interesting and athletes will find an extra incentive to fight till the end. Currie could finish outside the top five and still be first in the Series.

There have been plenty of apologist articles written on Weiss. I don't have any tolerance for doping & think it's relevant to include background information like that so as not to normalize it by never brining it up. I think our sports lends itself to normalizing things that make you a better athlete. //

First of all I'm with you on the no tolerance for doping in sport, those that know me and have read my posts here the past 20+ years know my very stern and vocal stance on it. I have never seen an apologist article, let alone "plenty" on Michael, perhaps I just missed them. And your last comment about our sport normalizing doping, where the hell did that come from? It is the exact opposite, always has been since my day back in the 80's, where us pros implemented the first ever drug program on ourselves to insure a level playing field. Of course we now know that all those efforts could be beaten(and still can be), and often were. But there never was or is an attempt to normalize doping, I believe we do better than most sports in that area.

Now if you were talking about the AG side, that is a different story. And it is not that our sport is normalizing it, but society as a whole. The whole longevity dynamic that is pervasive in our culture, has bleed into sport, and many do think it is "normal" to take all those drugs and then compete because some doctor said so....

Fantasy is on:


https://www.dailytri.com/.../races/im-texas-2024

---

"FTP is a bit 2015, don't you think?" - Gustav Iden

Race Ranger should be being used. But we've heard not a peep since they pulled it last minute at Oceanside (firmware 2.0 upgrade quality not assured). Anyone know?
A question to ask the pro panel in a few hours time maybe:
"How do you think RR is going to affect the bike?"

It was used in Singapore after Oceanside correct? I'd assumed that they had worked the bugs out of the software but perhaps the bugs related to the shorter draft distance allowed?

---

Genetics load the gun, lifestyle pulls the trigger.

I think the point is that Pohl would have won and it would have been a gigantic win for him, and without that win, he’s still relatively unknown even with his Roth/Maryland low-4 bike followed by 2:39 runs. I see it as highly relevant commentary for IMTX as to why Pohl is worth mentioning and under the radar - LRC does a great job providing backstories like this as they analyze, for example, recently who Ethiopia will choose for their Olympic marathon team, and that context is appreciated. keep this quality of writeups coming and thank you.

---

wovebike.com | Wove on instagram

I think a better question would be "Have you seen the wind forecast?"

:)

@Th4ddy "I think a better question would be 'Have you seen the wind forecast?'"
In the pro 'panel' they often share the latest forecast. Looks gnarly with winds 24kph, gusting 40 and some rain. And 30C for the run.
https://www.ventusky.com/...&t=20240427/1900
Great tailwind on the way back!
https://proseries.ironman.com/...t_CourseMap_Bike.pdf

Thank you, but my predictions are usually as accurate as North Korean economic statistics. You’re basically asking a person with learning difficulties to multiply 629 by 482…

---

"FTP is a bit 2015, don't you think?" - Gustav Iden

Sorry? "Pohl would have won" IF what?
If another athlete, who was busted a very long time ago in a different sport, hadn't been racing? Do you think Weiss, having served his ban, should never race again? That's not a very Christian 'forgiving' stance - but I appreciate one some advocate: a life ban from competitive sport. But it's not one the wide(r) sporting community adopts.
Pohl's two 2:39s (Roth and Maryland) were breakthrough runs for him: way faster than he'd managed before. That sort of run will see him well up the order, challenging Hanson for #2 on the run.

Again, if Weiss was racing, mention of his past in a preview of a race is perfectly reasonable.
Weiss is racing St George, according to https://sportstats.one/...ronman-703-st-george